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1. PRC on December DPRK Nuclear Talks
Reuters ("CHINA BACKS MORE KOREAN NUCLEAR TALKS IN DECEMBER," United Nations, 10/10/03) reported that the PRC's U.N. ambassador embraced on Friday a reported DPRK call for six-party talks on the Korean nuclear crisis to resume in December, saying Beijing also sought fresh talks by the end of the year. "This is what we have been working for," Ambassador Wang Guangya told reporters in New York. "I think we agreed to have one round of discussions before the end of the year, so December is presumably a good time," he said. "Resumption of these talks will certainly be helpful and we hope these talks by the six parties will continue and finally lead to good results." He spoke after Seoul's KBS television network reported that a DPRK envoy at the United Nations said Pyongyang wanted the next round of six-country talks on the nuclear dispute to take place in December. KBS, a state-funded broadcaster, said the unnamed senior official expressed Pyongyang's preference for December. r talks in a telephone interview with Washington-based ROK correspondents. The report gave no explanation or details.
2. ROK Domestic Politics
Agence France-Presse ("SKOREAN LEADER ROH GAMBLES ON RISKY VOTE OF CONFIDENCE," 10/10/03) reported that ROK President Roh Moo-Hyun said he wanted a vote of confidence in his rule, possibly a referendum, in a move seen as a dangerous gamble aimed at shoring up his crumbling support. The liberal reformer struggling against a hostile parliament and falling support said he wanted to win back the "moral high ground" that legitimized an administration elected on an anti-corruption platform. But analysts saw a risky political gamble that would do nothing to solve the political challenges facing a president with a growing reputation as a maverick. "This is a very dangerous and irresponsible gamble," said Lee Nae-Young, a political science professor at Korea University. Roh's move came after prosecutors accused Choi Do-Sul, a longtime ally and former top aide, of taking around one million dollars in bribes from SK Corp, the ROK's third largest business group, in exchange for fa! vours. Choi, the ex-presidential secretary for general affairs, denies the charge. Roh, 57, said he would ask for a vote of confidence, possible in the form of a referendum, once the investigation had been concluded. The beleaguered leader, in office for just over seven months, has seen his approval ratings crash from the nearly 80 percent to just over 20 percent since he won election in December last year. The ROK's economic recession and the lingering DPRK nuclear crisis have hurt his ratings. But some troubles were self-inflicted. South Koreans were puzzled when he publicly questioned whether he was "up to the job" after just 100 days in office. Roh swept to power in December's elections promising to root out corruption following the scandal-tainted term of his predecessor Kim Dae-Jung. His call triggered surprise and criticism. "This man is unpredictable," said a western diplomat. "Tomorrow he may change his mind again."
3. Taiwan on "One China" Principle
Agence France-Presse ("TAIWAN PRESIDENT REJECTS "ONE CHINA" PRINCIPLE," 10/10/03) reported that President Chen Shui-bian said Taiwan would not be forced into accepting the "one China" principle and called on Beijing to withdraw its military threat against the island. Addressing a National Day rally, Chen disputed claims Taiwan would have a greater presence on the international stage if it accepted the "one China" principle. "Only those who do not believe in themselves and do not believe in Taiwan will succumb to hegemony, make concessions for peace, or try to convince us that China's military intimidation and impervious coercion compels us to accept the so-called 'one China' principle," Chen said. Taipei has repeatedly rejected Beijing's "one China" principle, which regards the island as part of its territory waiting to be unified by force if necessary. "If we compromise our stance on sovereignty and relinquish our existing democracy and freedom, we will waive our right ! to join international organizations, and it will be impossible for us to ever have a voice in the global community," Chen said. Chen, concurrently the head of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), also dismissed adopting the PRC's "one country, two systems" mechanism under which Beijing grants limited autonomy to Hong Kong and Macau. The statement came two days after the PRC described Chen's recent speeches as "extremely immoral and very dangerous" and that his attempts to achieve independence for the island were doomed. "Chen Shui-bian begins with his own election needs and has selfishly usurped the representation of his party and people," a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council said.
4. Japan Role in US Anti-Terrorism
Agence France-Presse ("JAPAN APPROVES BILL TO EXTEND NON-COMBAT SUPPORT FOR US ANTI-TERROR FIGHT," Tokyo, 10/10/03) reported that the upper house of the Japanese parliament approved a bill to extend by two years the country's logistical support for a US-led military coalition in Afghanistan, an official said. With the passage through the House of Councillors, Japan is able to dispatch some military personnel in naval ships to the Indian Ocean to conduct re-fuelling and other support operations, until November 2005, the defense agency official said. The bill, which was cleared by the lower house last week, was created following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to allow the Japanese naval ships to refuel US and other warships in military action. The dispatch of naval flotillas to the Indian Ocean was the first instance since World War II in which Japanese troops were indirectly involved in a conflict, although the country's post-war pacifist constitution bans the! use of force in settling international disputes. In July Japan's parliament enacted a law endorsing the deployment of military personnel to Iraq to provide humanitarian aid and rearguard medical and supply assistance to security forces. The bill was the last piece of legislation the government wanted to complete before calling a general election, expected in November.
5. Japan Lower Parliament Dissolution
Agence France-Presse ("JAPAN PM DISSOLVES LOWER HOUSE, CALLS NOV 9 GENERAL ELECTION," 10/10/03) reported that Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi dissolved the lower house of parliament and called a general election for November 9 which is likely to be fought on the state of the economy. It will be the first time that Koizumi will face a direct verdict from voters since he took office in April 2001 promising reform. The economy, long in the doldrums, is finally showing some signs of life. The largest opposition Democratic Party has enhanced its power after absorbing a smaller party formed largely by splinters from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). "In the election, we want to work hard to win people's recognition that the LDP has changed and become a party of reform in order to obtain people's trust in this new era," Koizumi told LDP lawmakers. The House of Representatives was dissolved minutes after it opened a plenary session with lower house speaker Tamisuke Wa! tanuki reading out an edict approved by the government and signed by Emperor Akihito. The prime minister is the only person empowered to dissolve the all-powerful lower house of parliament. The upper house always serves out its three-year term. The government issued a statement explaining the decision to dissolve the lower house roughly nine months before its term expires. "Considering the need for progress in national policy by concentrating on the power of reform, we determined to dissolve the lower house and seek the people's trust. We sincerely hope that people will understand the significance of the general election, and deliver a wise verdict." "This will be the election on which we will stake our administration's fate," Koizumi declared. Naoto Kan, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the largest opposition bloc, said the upcoming vote would be "the first real election in 10 years to decide who should govern." He was referring to the July 1993 lower-hou! se election which ended the LDP's uninterrupted 38 year-long grip on power. "Not many people believe Japan can carry on like this," Kan said, urging voters to have the "courage" to change the nation. Takenori Kanzaki, leader of the New Komei party, a partner in the ruling coalition, said the moment had come for a "decisive battle." "This is going to be a cut-throat battle on which every party stakes its fate," Kanzaki told reporters.
6. PRC 16th Communist Party Congress
The Associated Press (Ted Anthony, "CHINA'S COMMUNIST PARTY MEETS THIS WEEKEND," Beijing, 10/10/03) reported that convening a key meeting, PRC's new generation of communist leaders planned to focus Saturday on policy changes to make their nation even more capitalist, including a constitutional amendment to protect private property. The four-day session of the party's ruling inner circle could give President Hu Jintao the clearest chance yet to put his own stamp on plans for the PRC's future. The plenum of the 16th Communist Party Congress comes as the PRC prepares for a history-making display of its economic and technological progress with the launch of its first manned space mission, scheduled for late next week. The events, scheduled in tandem, illustrate the new leadership's desire to link itself to images of progress and dynamism, overhauling the party's reputation for graft and bureaucratic sloth. Held in secrecy amid heavy security at the Great Hall of the People! in central Beijing, the plenum isn't expected to produce major policy decisions. No details of its agenda have been released, though the party newspaper People's Daily said it was meant to "further improve China's socialist market economic system." Diplomats and foreign analysts say a key issue will be a proposed constitutional amendment protecting private property - an element still missing in capitalist-style reforms that have let millions of PRC lift themselves out of poverty. Party leaders also are under pressure to produce solutions to a daunting array of problems - state banks mired in bad loans, millions of lost jobs at government companies, rural poverty and a decrepit health-care system. The meeting comes less than two weeks after Hu, who also is party general secretary, called in a Sept. 30 speech for a bigger public role in government and more "socialist democracy." But there was no indication whether the plenum planned to take up political reforms.
7. PRC-US Economic Developments
Reuters (Jennifer Hughes, "US TRADE GAP SHRINKS BUT CHINA DEFICIT RISES," New York, 10/10/03) reported that the US trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in August even as the trade gap with the PRC rose to a record high. Figures released by the US commerce department on Friday showed the deficit shrank to $39.21bn compared with a revised $40.03bn the previous month. It was the lowest gap in six months and undershot economists' expectations the deficit would widen to more than $41bn. Both imports and exports fell on the month. A 2.5 per cent drop off in imports was led by a 13 per cent decline in imported cars and car parts. Exports dropped 2.7 per cent, the biggest monthly drop since September 2001. But the bilateral deficit with the PRC widened to $11.7bn in August, breaking the $11.3bn record set only a month previously. US manufacturers have increasingly warned the PRC's pegged renminbi, which artificially weakens the currency, is hurting their export competitiveness. On! the services side, both imports and exports set a new record and the services surplus widened by 5.6 per cent to $5.2bn in August. Separately, a report from the labour department showed wholesale prices remained steady last month. The headline index rose 0.3 per cent, more than analysts had expected, but stripping out volatile food and energy costs, the core producer price index was stable.
8. DPRK Economic Development
The Economist ("NORTH KOREA PROGRESS AT A SNAIL'S PACE," 10/09/03) reported that economic reforms launched over a year ago have born only small fruit. For a country as cautious as the DPRK, a lot has changed since a series of economic reforms were announced 15 months ago. One source, an aid worker who recently spent more than a month traveling around the DPRK, noticed many small developments. The electricity supply, for instance, has slightly improved in the capital city, Pyongyang, as well as on the east coast in Hamhung and Chongjin. Apartment-block lights are now on for much longer. Second-hand bicycles, from Japan and the PRC, are numerous, particularly in cities on the poor, industrial east coast. Farmers are allowed their own small gardens, and farmers' markets are now referred to simply as "markets", because, as well as food, they sell consumer goods. Significantly, these markets have been given official approval. In fact, in June-despite its nuclear troubles with the outside world-the government appealed for help from other countries in running t! hem. As Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, explains, one immediate effect of the reforms is that there are now products available for hard currency, such as video players and movies like "The Lion King" dubbed in Korean, which were previously unobtainable. The government is also encouraging foreign investment in industries such as mining, energy, agriculture and information technology. And in an unprecedented move, the leadership recently gave its approval for a ROK company that assembles cars in North Korea to launch a marketing campaign there. Mobile-phone services have been started in the country's main cities and along its motorways. The DPRK's tourism authority claims that 2,000 Motorola and Nokia mobile handphones were sold in Pyongyang between November 2002 and August 2003. This in a country where barely a million land lines exist, out of a total population of 23 million. The DPRK recently announced plans to develop broadb! and internet capabilities to improve the business environment. The plan is to link the domestic intranet, called Kwangmyong, to the internet. The DPRK's national domain designation, ".kp", is still not in use, but the government has reportedly been testing e-mail addresses incorporating it. There is even an internet café in Pyongyang, though at $10 per hour it is affordable only to the few tourists, diplomats and journalists who visit the city. The evidence, although anecdotal, suggests that the DPRK is really trying to change. But these observations say little about how the economy as a whole is doing. The sad truth seems to be that the leadership in the DPRK undertook its partial reforms out of necessity, not because it had understood or embraced the market. Rather, for the past 15 months, according to a Korea expert, Kongdan Oh, at the Institute for Defence Analyses in Virginia, the country has been "creatively muddling through". While the average DPRK has more econom! ic freedom, the economy is near collapse. Remove the rose-tinted glasses Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute, in Washington, DC, estimates that, if anything, economic decline has accelerated, not reversed. Last year's price and wage increases saw prices rise 10 to 20-fold and wages rise by 20 times or more, the idea being to bring them more into line with market rates. But the increases have not been matched by measures to boost output, so inflation has spiralled out of control. The price of staple foods, for instance, has risen by as much as 400%, and the country continues to rely on foreign handouts to feed its people. Foreign investors still stay away and the few companies that have been bold enough to invest in the DPRK, such as Hyundai Asan, have lost millions of dollars. So, though much has changed in the DPRK over the past 15 months, the probability is that more will stay the same.
9. PRC Manned Space Launch Flight
The Associated Press (Ted Anthony, "CHINA CONFIRMS LAUNCH DATE FOR SPACE TRIP," Beijing, 10/10/03) reported that after a decade of preparation and months of speculation, China made a concrete commitment Friday to human space travel, announcing plans to launch a manned capsule into orbit next week and enter one of mankind's most rarefied clubs - that of the space-faring nations. The tentative date: between Wednesday and Friday of next week, "at a proper time." The number of orbits for the still-unidentified first PRC "taikonaut" and the Shenzhou 5 craft: 14. The announcement, which represents both a technological and political victory for the PRC 's leaders, was sent as a flash on the wire of the government's Xinhua News Agency. It confirmed a date that many state-controlled PRC newspapers had been leaking for days. So common has the knowledge become that travel agencies are organizing tours to the province where the launch pad is located. "All preparatory work for the ! launch is progressing smoothly," Xinhua quoted an unidentified space-program official as saying. The military-linked program is highly secretive, and access to its officials is next to impossible. The launch, scheduled for the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the northwestern province of Gansu, will make the PRC the third country to put a human into space on its own. The Shenzhou 5 will orbit the Earth 14 times before landing at a "pre-selected area," Xinhua said. "China plans to launch its first manned spaceflight at a proper time between Oct. 15 and 17, said an official in charge of the country's manned spaceflight program on Friday," it said in a statement that it labeled a "bulletin." Xinhua did not say how many PRC astronauts - dubbed "taikonauts" in English after the PRC word for space, "taikong" - the craft would contain. China Central Television, in the top story of its evening newscast, said the Shenzhou 5 would fly on an elliptical orbit and cross the equator at! an angle of 42.4 degrees. It would then shift to a circular orbit at an altitude of 213 miles. The agency's Web site immediately posted what it called a "simulated picture" of Shenzhou 5 in orbit, with its capsule and propulsion system in the foreground and a spectacular vista of the Earth and the sun as a backdrop. On Friday, the popular Sina.com Web site reported that handguns, knives and other "defensive weapons" will be stored aboard the capsule as a precaution against landing in hostile environs. Astronauts "will be able to deal with wild beasts, sharks and other dangerous animals or enemies," it reported.
10. PRC Public on Manned Space Flight
Agence France-Presse ("CHINA'S MASSES ASK: SHENZHOU V -- WHAT'S THAT?" 10/10/03) reported that the eyes of the world are turning to the PRC as it prepares to blast a man into space, but many people on the street do not know nor care about one of the most important events in PRC history. "I've never heard of Shenzhou V," said Song Xinqiao, a 33-year-old rice farmer from central Hunan province pushing his bicycle as he went from building to building looking for work in Beijing. "I've never heard of our country wanting to send someone into space." With just days to go before the expected October 15 launch to make China only the third country in the world to put a man in orbit, the nation's state-run media has practically ignored the event. Only the lesser-controlled PRC portals carry stories, and mostly from the independent Hong Kong media. People arriving at Beijing's Railway Station also seemed clueless. "What is it? It's the first time I've heard of those words, Shenzhou! ," said Xue Ni, from Sichuan province, referring to the name of the PRC spacecraft. Their ignorance highlights the cloak of secrecy over the project, which despite having been in the works since 1992 and having cost an estimated 2.3 billion US dollars of taxpayers' money, has been kept largely under wraps. Fear of failure and the public disappointment that will come along with it has convinced the PRC's leaders to keep the plan hushed, analysts said. Unlike other countries where sending a person into space is prefaced with publicity and fanfare, the PRC is a less confident country with more to prove and more to lose if the flight fails. Many people who had heard of the upcoming launch, however, said sending a PRC into space would be good for China and its people. "This will demonstrate our country's strength, like our testing of the atomic bomb," said Li Jinghong, a 29-year-old woman. "If a country is strong, its people can lift up their heads. Otherwise people will look dow! n on us." Wu Shuang, a college graduate, agreed: "Foreigners will think PRC people are tough. They won't dare to bully us anymore." But voices of dissent clearly exist. "China has no military threat. We don't need to do this," said Liu Nan, 23. "The clearest evidence of whether a country is strong or not is its people's living standards. There are people in China who still don't have enough to eat and can't afford to go to school. Money is limited. We should use it to help the people."
1. Next ROK-DPRK Minister Talks' Agenda Is DPRK Nuclear Issue
Chosun Ilbo (Kim In, "NUKES ON AGENDA OF NEXT MINISTER TALKS", 10/09/03) reported that Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said Thursday that discussions on nuclear issues will be unavoidable at the 12th DPRK-ROK ministerial-level talks, which will take place Oct.14-17 in Pyongyang. "About 10 days ago, DPRK announced that it had completed reprocessing 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods," Jeong pointed out. "We will do our best to engender a more diligent and progressive attitude so that DPRK nuclear issue can be resolved soon. Whatever the actual situations [of nuclear development in DPRK] is, I have a heavy responsibility on my shoulders." The matter was raised at the 8th-11th ministerial-level talks, but DPRK continues to go public about advances in its nuclear development, causing anxiety in international society and ROK government. Jeong added, "There is no evidence that DPRK reopened the 50 megawatt nuclear power plant construction in Yenben."
2. German Activist Plans To Establish An Interim DPRK Government In
Exile
Joongang Ilbo (Kim Seok-hwan, Jeon Ick-jin, "ACTIVIST PLANS NORTH GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE", 10/09/03) reported that the German doctor and human rights activist Norbert Vollertsen told a press conference yesterday near the Demilitarized Zone that he was working to establish an interim DPRK government in exile. Dr. Vollertsen has been an active advocate of the plight of DPRK people under the Kim Jong-il regime. Speaking in front of the old DPRK communist party building in Cheorwon just south of the DMZ, he said he would begin discussions with DPRK defectors in PRC, Japan and Russia to establish the government-in-exile. A plan by Dr. Vollertsen and a group of anti-DPRK activists to release 20 balloons with portable radios attached to them over DPRK was derailed when the police moved in to stop it. The plan was devised to try to inform ordinary DPRK people and to encourage them to defect, which the group said was a way to topple the Kim Jong-il regime. In an interview with the ! JoongAng Ilbo last week, Dr. Vollertsen said DPRK people are hungry for information from the outside. Q: What is the purpose of the radio and balloon campaign? A: I met a man in DPRK when I went there in 1999, and he asked me to buy him a radio during a trip I made to PRC. I gave him the radio I had. Then, later, he found out that I had a television set in my room that received satellite broadcasts, and he begged me to let him watch it. DPRK people are thirsty for information. It is probably difficult to change the situation very much by sending a few hundred radios, but maybe a million radios will do the job. Q: You have been saying that there is going to be an increase in defections by high-level DPRK officials. What's the basis of your belief? A: colleague who was in DPRK for four years until May told me that DPRK society is very corrupt and senior officials, especially diplomats and others who have the chance to travel abroad, dream about new opportunities outside the ! country. What we have in DPRK is a lot like the situation we had in East Germany before its fall. Q: You have assisted DPRK defectors in PRC travel to third countries. Isn't this making PRC crackdown on DPRK defectors tougher? A: I understand the criticism. But there is bound to be danger when you're dealing with a dictator like Kim Jong-il. When Hitler was in power, people put themselves in greater danger to topple that regime. A newspaper article on DPRK defectors might cause suffering for other defectors. But DPRK is reacting. We have to speak out louder.
3. U.S. President Will Visit Asian Countries Except ROK
Donga Ilbo (Kwon Sun Taek, "BUSH TO EXCLUDE KOREA FROM HIS VISIT TO ASIA", 10/09/03) reported that U.S. President George W. Bush is visiting Japan, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and Australia in succession from October 17-23, the White House said on October 8 (local time). President Bush will be paying a visit to these Asian countries from October 17, including Japan for two days to have summit talks with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, after finishing visiting California on October 15, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. Bush is also planning to visit Canberra, Australia on October 22 to conclude his trip after his planned participation at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting scheduled for October 20- 21 in Bangkok, Thailand.
4. No New News About DPRK Leader For Months Raises Suspicions
Donga Ilbo (Park Won Jae, Kim Seung Ryun, "KIM JONG-IL'S PERSONAL DANGER POSSIBLE AFTER ONE MONTH OF NO NEWS", 10/09/03) reported that as there have been no news of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's whereabouts in the last month, an opinion has been raised that a negative occurrence has affected the upper class group of DPRK, Japanese Radio Press, a DPRK new listening organization said. Kim has not appeared in official meetings since he attended a formal military inspection for the 55th DPRK government establishment anniversary on September 9. Discontinuance of movement news is not unprecedented as Kim had previously disappeared in official meetings for 50 days at the beginning of this year, but there are a few other conditions supporting a rumor about accidents within the upper classes the Radio Press said. Sergei Darkin, a governor of Maritime Provinces Russia, who was visited by Kim and also visited DPRK at the beginning of this month, could not meet him. A planned visit ! by Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the Standing Committee of PRC's National People's Congress was suddenly delayed at DPRK's request. The news that Kim's wife Ko Yeun-hee is in a serious condition also supports the rumor about a possible accident, Nihongeiga newspaper analyzed. There is a possibility that Kim and/or his relatives may have faced personal danger, the Radio Press said. The unification ministry rejected the rumor. Russia Itartas reported Wu's visit on September 20 and an 'invitation by Kim' was the expression of the governor of Maritime Provinces, but it is not clear whether that was actually an invitation for a meeting with Kim.
5. PRC Won Over Japan In Diplomatic War At ASEAN
Donga Ilbo (Park Won Jae, "CHINA DEFEAT JAPAN AT ASEAN DIPLOMATIC WAR", 10/08/03) reported that at the summit talk of ASEAN, (Association of South-East Asian Nations), held in Bali, Indonesia on October 7-8, PRC and Japan struck up a nerve war to spread out more of its influences on ASAEN. The diplomatic war ended up in favor with PRC, scoring a unanimous decision. PRC has concluded a cooperative treaty, sort of a nonaggression pact, with the ASEAN countries, consenting to juice up its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) progression. Japan however, has not brought on any distinctive fruit from the talk. October 8, the Japanese newspaper, Mainichi Shim bun, brought out some ASEAN countries their complaints saying, "Japan treats us inhospitably, coming round to the American obeying diplomacy." PRC, responded to ASEAN's plan of merging south-east Asian countries into a one, united economic circle until 2020, coming to a mutual agreement to draw in their day of FTA conclusion. ! PRC came out with their plan of economic support to Myanmar and Cambodia, also to carry out visa exemption services to travelers from Singapore and Brunei. "The conclusion of the cooperative treaty with ASEAN proved our effort to treat ASEAN countries as our cooperation partner for the future," remarked the Vice Foreign Minister of PRC, Wangii. "The relationship between PRC and ASEAN has faced up with the new phase." Giving out its enthusiasm for FTA conclusion between ROK, Japan and PRC at the summit talk, PRC also took a firm grip on the far-east Asian FTA discussion, analyzed one of the foreign affair researchers. On the other hand, Japan, reasoned the overlapped contents between ASEAN cooperation treaty and Japan-U.S. Security Pact, ran through passive tactics. As for FTA, they reconfirmed their position, "We will carry it out as quickly as possible." ASEAN was founded in 1967, for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand for the purpose of ke! eping down south-east Asian countries' turn-over to communism. Originally, it was created to protect these countries from the threat of PRC, but has instead, made the two sides into the most familiar relations.
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