NAPSNet Daily Report
friday, november 14, 2003

I. United States


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I. United States

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1. DPRK Nuclear Offer

The Washington Times (John Zarocostas, "N. KOREA OFFERS TO GIVE UP NUKES," Geneva, 11/14/03) reported that DPRK diplomats said yesterday the nation was willing to give up its nuclear deterrent, stop testing and exporting missiles and permit annual inspections as part of a grand bargain with its four neighbors and the US. In exchange, the diplomats said, the DPRK expected written security guarantees and compensation for economic losses suffered by a decision to halt construction of two ROK-made nuclear power plants in the DPRK. In addition, the envoys said the US must pledge not to hinder the economic development of the DPRK, particularly its dealings with Japan and the ROK. Two diplomats, in a rare, wide-ranging interview, reiterated Pyongyang's position that it might be prepared to consider President Bush's proposal for written guarantees on security "positively" if they were linked to simultaneous diplomatic actions demanded by the DPRK. The envoys said there is so far no confirmation of the date, but the six-way talks involving the US, Russia, the PRC, the ROK, the DPRK and Japan are expected to continue, and they underscored that Pyongyang "agreed in principle to the next round of talks." Kim Song-sol, the other senior DPRK diplomat, added that during the first round of six-way talks in Beijing in April, Pyongyang had proposed a nonaggression treaty, the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two, and the guarantee of the realization of economic collaboration between the ROK and Japan. The envoy added that the DPRK's demands also include compensation for the electricity loss and to complete construction of the two light water reactors. As part of the bargain in exchange, Kim Song-sol said, Pyongyang would "not manufacture nuclear weapons, allow annual inspections, dissolve the nuclear facilities, and suspend the testing of missiles or the missile export or such kind of things."

Agence France-Presse ("NORTH KOREA WILLING TO GIVE UP NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM," Washington, 11/14/03) reported that the DPRK is willing to give up its nuclear weapons program and stop testing and exporting missiles, subject to certain guarantees, The Washington Times reported, quoting diplomats from the Stalinist state. Pyongyang expected written security guarantees and compensation for economic losses incurred by closing two nuclear power plants, the two diplomats told the daily in Geneva during an interview. Identified as Kim Yong-ho and Kim Song-sol, the envoys said the US would also have to pledge not to the DPRK's economic development, especially its dealings with Japan and the ROK. They said there was no confirmation on a date for the next six-way talks involving the ROK, the DPRK, Japan, Russia, the PRC and the US, but stressed that their government had "agreed in principle to the next round of talks."

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2. CIA on DPRK Missile Capabilities

Agence France-Presse ("CIA SOUNDS NEW WARNING ON NORTH KOREA MISSILE THAT COULD HIT US," Washington, 11/14/03) reported that the CIA is sounding a new alarm that the DPRK may be ready to flight test a nuclear capable multi-stage missile capable of reaching parts of the US. The assessment in an unclassified report to Congress gels with another recent analysis of Pyongyang's missile programs by the Defense Intelligence Agency, made public last week, and will fuel fears the DPRK may end its missile test moratorium. "The multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2 capable of reaching parts of the US with a nuclear weapon-sized payload may be ready for flight-testing," the Central Intelligence Agency said in the report, which analyzes weapons of mass destruction production for the first six months of 2003. It is not the first time that the CIA has warned that the DPRK may have reached the flight-test stage for the Taepo-Dong 2. he agency said in previous reports that in a regular two-stage set up, the Taepo Dong-2 could deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms to Alaska, Hawaii and parts of the continental US. In an adapted three-stage configuration, the Taepo Dong-2 could in theory ferry a warhead to anywhere in North America. The DPRK has said it will stick to its missile moratorium until the end of this year, but yet to commit to extending it into next year.

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3. Rumsfeld and Koizumi Meeting on Japan Troops in Iraq Agence France-Presse ("RUMSFELD MEETS WITH KOIZUMI, SAYS IRAQ COALITION NOT IN TROUBLE," 11/14/03) reported that US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld met with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to discuss Asian security issues and support for Iraq a day after Japan backtracked on a pledge to send troops there. Rumsfeld said the latest suicide attack in Iraq, which killed 18 Italian troops and six Iraqis in Nasiriya on Wednesday, had not hurt support for the coalition despite Japan's reluctance to commit troops. Every country should make its own judgments about whether to send troops and the timing and size of any contributions to the US-led force, Rumsfeld told reporters on the flight here from Guam. "Obviously, attacks went on, and folks are doing everything to effectively deal with them," he said. "We feel we are making progress. We also recognise it is a dangerous place, and that the incidence of low-level, low-intensity conflict techniques do create danger. "We understand that, and we intend to prevail," he said. Asked whether the coalition was in trouble because of the attacks, Rumsfeld said: "No. There are 32 countries with forces on the ground in Iraq." "The reaction of the Italian government to the attack that took place recently was that not only the coalition is not in trouble, but that they intend to stay in the coalition. "I believe they may even be sending replacement forces," he added.

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4. Japan on Troops in Iraq

The Associated Press (Robert Burns, "JAPAN GIVES RUMSFELD FEW HOPES FOR TROOPS," Tokyo, 11/14/03) reported that Japan's decision to delay sending troops to Iraq just before a visit Friday by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is another sign of the growing trouble the US faces in persuading allies to help in Iraq. The rare rebuff before a top-level visit was coupled with the ROK's announcement Thursday it would limit any possible troop deployment to 3,000. Rumsfeld was whisked directly from the airport in Tokyo to an evening meeting with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose government announced a day earlier while Rumsfeld was visiting Guam that it almost certainly will delay sending a contingent of non-combat troops until sometime next year. Japan is one of the US' most steadfast allies - arguably the most important in Asia - and it has pledged billions of dollars in financial aid for Iraq's reconstruction. The Bush administration had hoped the Japanese also would send troops before the end of the year. But after Wednesday's deadly attack on the Italian compound in south-central Iraq, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda backed off, saying the security situation in Iraq is not yet stable enough. After Rumsfeld's 45-minute meeting with Koizumi, a Rumsfeld aide, who briefed reporters on condition he not be identified, said neither man raised the subject of Japanese troops in Iraq. The aide said Koizumi told Rumsfeld he admired the Bush administration's determination to stay the course in Iraq and that Japan will remain a strong supporter. Rumsfeld thanked the Tokyo government for its pledge of $1.5 billion in grants for 2004 and an additional $3.5 billion in loans over the following three years. Koizumi did not mention plans for further steps to help. In an interview with reporters flying with him to Tokyo, Rumsfeld showed no sign of disappointment at Japan's decision and even suggested that the US-led coalition in Iraq is gaining strength.

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5. CIA on PRC-Pakistan Nuclear Links

Agence France-Presse ("CIA CANNOT RULE OUT CHINA-PAKISTAN NUKE LINKS," Washington, 11/14/03) reported that the CIA says in a new report that it cannot rule out links between PRC firms and Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, despite Beijing's assurances that it will provide no such help. The Central Intelligence Agency also cautions that PRC entities continued to work with Pakistan and Iran on ballistic-missile-related projects during the first six months of this year. Despite a warming of relations in recent years, the US and the PRC frequently find themselves at odds over proliferation. Washington has slapped sanctions on a long list of PRC firms accused of links to nations including Pakistan, North Korea and Iran. The unclassified report to Congress notes that Beijing promised Washington in May 1996 not to provide assistance to unsafeguarded nuclear facilities. "We cannot rule out, however, some continued contacts subsequent to the pledge between PRC entities and entities associated with Pakistan's nuclear weapons program," the report says. The report notes that Beijing had taken some steps to educate individuals and firms on new missile-related export control regulations. But it concludes that "PRC entities continued to work with Pakistan and Iran on ballistic-missile-related projects during the first half of 2003." PRC assistance has helped Pakistan move toward serial production of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. It has also aided Iran's move to become self-sufficient in terms of producing ballistic missiles, the report said. "In addition, firms in China provided dual-use missile-related items, raw materials and/or assistance to several other countries of proliferation concern -- such as Iran, Libya and North Korea," the report said.

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6. DPRK-ROK Military Talks

Yonhap News Agency ("DPRK, ROK HOLD WORKING-LEVEL MILITARY TALKS," Seoul, 11/14/04) reported that working-level military officials of the two Koreas met Friday at the truce village of Panmunjom to discuss the operation of guard posts in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) dividing the Korean Peninsula. Col Moon Sung-mook of the South and his DPRK counterpart Ryu Yong-chol opened the talks between the two three-member delegations at 10 a.m., officials said. Details of the meeting were not immediately available. The South proposed the talks on 8 November and the North accepted the offer on Wednesday.

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7. PRC-India Joint Naval Exercises

Agence France-Presse ("CHINA, INDIA CONDUCT FIRST JOINT NAVAL EXERCISES," 11/14/03) reported that the PRC and India conducted their first ever joint naval exercises off the coast of Shanghai as part of a drive to warm frosty ties between the two nuclear-armed Asian powers. Led by the NS Ranjit, a 5,000-tonne Russian guided missile destroyer, the INS Kulish, a guided missile corvette, and the INS Jyoti, a tanker, the Indian taskforce cast off from Shanghai at 9:00 am (0100 GMT), a consular official said. Joined by two PRC warships, a light cruiser and a supply boat, as well as helicopters, they conducted five-hour rescue, firefighting and anti-piracy maneuvers in the East China Sea before the Indian ships set sail for home. "The exercises, aimed at ensuring and improving coordination in search and rescue at sea, will be a stepping stone in enhancing inter-operability between the two navies," India's Ambassador to the PRC Nalin Suire was quoted as saying by the China Daily. Chen Zhimin, a professor of international relations at Fudan University, added that the "the joint exercise signals a marked change to improve the relationship between the PRC and India despite some border issues that have existed between the two countries for a long time."

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8. US on Japan Economy

The Associated Press (Audrey McAvoy, "US URGES JAPAN TO STREAMLINE ECONOMY," Tokyo, 11/14/03) reported that Washington wants Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to make more progress in opening and streamlining the Japanese economy, a US trade official said Friday as the two countries kicked off a new round of annual talks on deregulation. While the US delegation applauded Koizumi's efforts to create 164 special economic zones that have cut tariffs, red tape and loosened rules for businesses, the trade official said Washington wants similar policies implemented on a broader scale across the country. "We are pleased Koizumi is holding firm to his commitment to regulatory reform," the official said on condition of anonymity after talks Friday with Japanese counterparts. "More needs to be done if Japan is to restore its vibrancy."

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9. PRC Communications Satellite Launch

The Associated Press ("CHINA LAUNCHES COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE," Beijing, 11/14/03) reported that the PRC sent a communication satellite into orbit on Saturday in its third launch since its first manned space mission last month, the government said. The Zhongxing-20 satellite went up from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in the southwestern province of Sichuan at 12:01 a.m., the official Xinhua News Agency said. It was carried up by a Long March 3-A rocket, Xinhua said. The launch was declared a success from the Xi'an Satellite Monitor and Control Center 25 minutes later, when the satellite entered orbit, Xinhua said. The satellite was designed by China Academy of Space Technology and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. The launch is the 32nd consecutive successful launch since October 1996 - and the fourth in one month.

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10. Russia-PRC-ROK Gas Pipeline

Agence France-Presse ("GIANT RUSSIAN GAS PIPELINE TO CHINA, SOUTH KOREA GETS GREEN LIGHT," Moscow, 11/14/03) reported that Russia, the PRC and the ROK unveiled a giant 17-billion-dollar project to supply Siberian gas to energy-hungry PRC and ROK markets from one of the world's largest undeveloped gas fields. Rusia Petroleum, which is 63-percent owned by TNK-BP, signed a feasibility study with its partners the state-run China National Petroleum Corporation and Korea Gas Corporation, giving the initial go-ahead for the project. The 4,887-kilometre (3,055 mile) pipeline would transport gas from the vast Kovytka gas field near Lake Baikal in eastern Siberia to the ROK through the PRC and the Yellow Sea. Asia's longest pipeline will tap into estimated reserves of 1.9 trillion cubic meters of gas, "one of the largest undeveloped gas fields in the world," said Harry Griffits, Rusia Petroleum deputy director general, at the signing ceremony in Moscow. Under the 30-year project, Russia will supply 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year to the PRC and 10 billion cubic meters to the ROK and sell four billion cubic meters on the domestic Russian market, Gas deliveries are due to start in 2008.

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11. PRC Global Fund Award for AIDS Crisis

Agence France-Presse ("CHINA WINS 95 MILLION DOLLAR GLOBAL FUND GRANT TO TACKLE AIDS CRISIS," 11/14/03) reported that the PRC has won a 95 million dollar grant from the Global Fund to fight its ballooning AIDS problem amid growing concerns that Beijing is not doing enough to tackle the crisis, state-run media said. The money from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria will be used to control and prevent the spread of the HIV virus and to help patients, the China Daily said. The PRC has come under increasing pressure to tackle the issue with the United Nations estimating that the number of victims could grow to 10 million by 2010 unless urgent action is taken. Health experts in the country urged the government this week to "tell our people the true situation and take effective measures." It is the first time Beijing has won money from the Global Fund, which was created to dramatically increase resources to fight three of the world's most devastating diseases, and to direct those resources to areas of greatest need. The Ministry of Health was cited by the paper as saying the money should provide substantial relief to the country's HIV/AIDS victims, most of whom are stricken by poverty and live in rural areas. About 70 percent of victims have no access to necessary medical treatment due to lack of money. The cash will also be used to help run care centers in 124 HIV/AIDS stricken counties.

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Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

International Peace Research Institute (PRIME),
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Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Brandon Yu:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Young-soo:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hibiki Yamaguchi:
Tokyo, Japan

Saiko Iwata:
Tokyo, Japan

Hiroya Takagi:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Wu Chunsi:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

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Clayton, Australia

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