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Latest Policy Forum: The Kumchangni Inspection and Perry's Visit to North Korea
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I. United States1. Japan-ROK Defense Talks Pacific Stars And Stripes ("JAPAN DENIES THREATENING SANCTIONS," Tokyo, 07/15/99, Pg.3) and South China Morning Post ("TOKYO AND SEOUL AGREE PACT TO DETER PYONGYANG TEST MISSILE," Tokyo, 07/15/99) reported that, according to a Japanese Foreign Ministry official, Japan and the ROK agreed on Wednesday to bolster co-operation on deterring DPRK from test- firing another missile. The official stated, "It is important for the two nations and the United States to [strengthen] their cooperation in dealing with North Korea ... especially to deter a missile launch." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 15.] 2. DPRK Rocket Launch Reuters ("N.KOREA BLASTS U.S., S.KOREA, JAPAN COOPERATION," Tokyo, 07/15/99) reported that the DPRK on Thursday criticized joint efforts by the US, the ROK, and Japan to persuade the DPRK not to test-fire a long- range missile. The DPRK's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) stated, "The U.S., Japanese and South Korean warhawks are now getting overheated in vitalizing the 'cooperation' system against the northern half of Korea. If the U.S., Japanese and South Korean warhawks misjudge the DPRK's will and determination and dare to unleash a new war, they will have to pay a very high price and will not escape from the lot of a forlorn wandering spirit." KCNA also quoted a DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying, "It is our consistent stand to launch a satellite any time according to our decision when we deem it necessary and when we are prepared for it scientifically and technologically." 3. Japan's DPRK Policy Pacific Stars And Stripes ("JAPAN DENIES THREATENING SANCTIONS," Tokyo, 07/15/99, Pg.3) reported that Japanese Foreign Ministry denied reports that the Japanese government has decided to toughen sanctions on the DPRK in the event of a second missile launch. An unnamed official stated, "There is no such fact. We want to know where the report is coming from." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 15.] 4. Japanese Military Satellites South China Morning Post (Sally Fisher, "JAPANESE MILITARY WANTS SPY SATELLITES," Tokyo, 07/15/99) reported that a Japanese Defense Agency white paper concluded that Japanese spy satellites should be launched to keep watch over the DPRK's missile development. The paper, which was due for release later this month, recommended that Japan gather its own space-based military intelligence. It also suggested that Japan rely less on the US for intelligence information. The paper also called for greater cooperation between Japanese military agencies to deal with intrusions. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 15.] 5. Remains of US Soldiers from Korean War Pacific Stars And Stripes (Jim Lea, "NK SILENT ON MIA REMAINS REPATRIATION," Osan Air Base, 07/15/99, Pg. 4) reported that the DPRK army is refusing to meet with the United Nations Command (UNC) to discuss when it will return remains believed to be of four US soldiers killed during the Korean War. UNC spokeswoman Lee Ferguson said on Wednesday that the command has made several requests for a meeting with the DPRK army officials to discuss the issue. She said that there was no response. She added that although the US Defense Department's Prisoner of War/Missing Persons Office has repeatedly told the DPRK army officials that they must meet with the UNC to resolve the issue, the DPRK has given no reason for refusing to repatriate the remains. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 15.] 6. PRC Neutron Bomb Technology The New York Times (Seth Faison, "CHINA PROCLAIMS IT DESIGNED ITS OWN NEUTRON BOMB," Beijing, 07/15/99), The Washington Post (Michael Laris, "CHINA SAYS IT CAN BUILD NEUTRON BOMB," Thursday, 07/15/99, A01) and the Associated Press (Elaine Kurtenbach, "CHINA ACKNOWLEDGES BOMB DEVELOPMENT," Beijing, 07/15/99) reported that at a news conference in Beijing on Thursday, a senior official, Zhao Qizheng released a report, entitled "Facts Speak Louder Than Words and Lies Will Collapse on Themselves." The report stated, "China has already mastered the neutron bomb design technology.... Since China has already possessed atom bomb and H-bomb technologies, it is quite logical and natural for it to master the neutron bomb technology." Zhao said that PRC scientists had long ago developed their own neutron bomb and other advances in nuclear weapons. Zhao also denied that the PRC stole US technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads. He said that, threatened by the Cold War nuclear arms race between the US and the former Soviet Union, the PRC had no choice but to carry out research and development of nuclear weapons technology. Zhao called the Cox report "utterly absurd" and racist, saying that it implied that the PRC could not develop advanced technology without resorting to theft. US White House press secretary Joe Lockhart declined to discuss how much the US administration knows about advances in the PRC weaponry. Lockhart stated, "We have some sense of what their capabilities are but I'm not going to get into that because it involves intelligence and intelligence gathering." The Washington Post (Michael Laris, "CHINA SAYS IT CAN BUILD NEUTRON BOMB," Thursday, 07/15/99, A01) and Reuters (Paul Eckert, "CHINA'S BOMBSHELL NOT LOST ON TAIWAN EARS," Beijing, 07/15/99) reported that some diplomats suspected that the PRC's announcement of neutron bomb technology was really meant for Taiwan. An unnamed diplomat in Beijing stated, "What makes you question everything is the timing. They have already issued a rebuttal to the Cox report." Another diplomat in Beijing said that the dispute over the neutron bomb technology would pass quietly. He said, "Presumably the neutron bomb will not be used, so the fact of a one-line Xinhua story may not affect China's overall reputation. Saying that and then not quickly following it up with any action, it will quickly become yesterday's news." David Shambaugh, an expert on PRC security policy at George Washington University, called the PRC announcement "strange" and said he "wouldn't link it necessarily" to either the Taiwan crisis or the embassy bombing. Shambaugh said, "We knew they had it, now they've confirmed it. That was just one of the allegations in the Cox report, and not one of the more worrying ones. It's 20-year-old technology." 7. PRC's View of Lee Teng-hui's Statement Christian Science Monitor (Kevin Platt, "TAIWAN WIDENS 'ONE CHINA' SPLIT," Beijing, 07/15/99, Pg. 6) reported that, according to analysts, Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's remark has fueled tensions among the PRC, the US, and Taiwan. Yan Xuetong, a scholar at the Beijing-based China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said, "China's military is very angry about Lee Teng-hui's abandonment of the one-China principle. The [PRC] military is now assessing the situation and preparing a response." Yan also said that the proposal to extend the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system to Taiwan is being interpreted in both PRC and Taiwan as growing US support for a "second China." Yan said, "Lee Teng-hui's recent change in Taiwan's status is fueled in part by a growing confidence in US military protection for Taiwan's independence moves." According to Yan, Lee is also calculating that "China-bashing in the US Congress," along with NATO's new policy of military intervention on humanitarian grounds, could translate into support for Taiwan's secession. Yan added, "The US and China still have the chance to work together to prevent the current downturn in relations to spiral into a new cold war." Zhang Yebai, head of the American studies department at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated, "Lee Teng-hui is hoping that the mainland will limit its response to his provocation in order to prevent Sino-American ties from deteriorating further." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 15.] The Associated Press ("CHINESE MILITARY THREATEN TAIWAN," Beijing, 07/15/99) reported that PRC military on Thursday threatened to use force against Taiwan if Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui declares independence. The PRC military newspaper, the Liberation Army Daily, said, "Every warrior in the entire army is furiously indignant over Lee Teng-hui's evil plot to separate the motherland. In the struggle between upholding unification and opposing separatism, we ... will not tolerate separatist conspiracies nor sit idly by to let even one inch of territory go." 8. Taiwan Policy toward PRC Reuters (Dan Martin, "TAIWAN STANDS FIRM AMID CHINESE THREATS," Taipei, 07/15/99) reported that Taiwan's government stood by its "one China" policy on Thursday and told the Taiwan people to brace for any consequences. Taiwanese Premier Vincent Siew issued a statement saying, "Facing this new situation, we have to be fully prepared to control the situation and prepare countermeasures for any change. We should explain sincerely our pragmatic and forward-looking ideas to the international community and the Chinese Communists." 9. PRC Ascension to WTO Reuters ("CHINA SAYS NO TIMETABLE FOR WTO TALKS WITH U.S.," Beijing, 07/15/99) reported that the PRC said on Thursday it has no timetable for a resumption of talks with the US on its bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). PRC Vice Foreign Trade Minister Long Yongtu said, "The atmosphere is not appropriate yet to have fruitful negotiations, so we don't have a timetable. Any trade negotiations, if to succeed, must be conducted in a relatively favorable international atmosphere." 10. Russia Chemical Weapons Reuters ("RUSSIA HAS SECRET CHEM WEAPONS STORE- NORWAY PAPER," Oslo, 07/15/99) reported that, according to the Norwegian daily Verdens Gang, Russia has been operating a secret plant for producing and storing chemical weapons just east of Murmansk on the Kola peninsula for the last 15 years. Verdens stated, "An explosion at this plant could lead to an environmental catastrophe in the Nordic region. There would be damage up to 250 km (150 miles) away." Sigvald Hauge, acting spokesman at the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, stated, "The Russians have told us today that there is no change in their position, which is that there is no storage, research or decommissioning of chemical weapons in the Kola region. We are waiting for a more detailed reply but as of today we have no indication that there are chemical weapons on the Kola peninsula." 11. Kashmir Conflict The Associated Press (Neelesh Misra, "SHELLING CEASES ON KASHMIR HIGHWAY," Kargil, 07/15/99) reported that shelling across the Himalayas ended on Thursday in Kashmir as Indian forces moved troops into position for a decisive sweep toward the frontier with Pakistan. Some officers said it could be a sign the withdrawal was complete in the Kaksar area. The Associated Press (Neelesh Misra, "SHELLING CEASES ON KASHMIR HIGHWAY," Kargil, 07/15/99) reported that, according to Indian commanders, Pakistan has denied that it agreed to a Friday deadline to evacuate all forces from Indian territory. Brigadier Ramesh Kakar, Indian commander of operations in the Mushkoh Valley, stated, "We will not go by what they say. Whatsoever is not vacated will be vacated. We will push on Friday morning, right up to the Line of control." 1. DPRK Missile Test Chosun (Kim In, "NK DEFENDS SATELLITE LAUNCH ," Seoul, 07/14/99) and Joongang Ilbo (Shim Shang-bok, "NK ON COURSE TO TEST-FIRE MISSILE DESPITE WARNINGS," Seoul, 07/14/99) reported that the DPRK Foreign Office spokesman delivered a statement on Tuesday criticizing Japan for calling DPRK's satellite launching an attempt at a missile test. In the mean time, the DPRK seems to be going ahead with its test launching of a missile despite repeated warnings from the US and Japan that the launch would destabilize Northeast Asia and damage improving relations with the US. A spokesman with the Foreign Ministry in the DPRK said on July 13 that the DPRK will act according to its own beliefs and resolution because launching a satellite for space research and development is an exclusive right of a sovereign state. US Senator Robert Torricelli, after meeting DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye-gwan recently, said that he is very discouraged and convinced that the DPRK is intent on firing a multi-stage rocket "despite the illogic and enormous setback" the test would cause. He further stated that firing another rocket would be "an act full of extraordinary consequences" that would change the dynamics of DPRK's relations with the US and Japan, and perhaps even the PRC. 1. Korea Economic Update The ROK Ministry of Finance and Economy announces a new biweekly Korea Economic Update available via email free of charge. Produced by the Ministry of Finance and Economy of the Republic of Korea and sponsored by the global investment bank Rothschild Inc., the report provides the latest macroeconomic data, announcements from Ministers, upcoming actions by the Bank of Korea and reports of new policy initiatives. To subscribe, simply email: subscribe@edelman.co.kr 2. Electronic Journal on East Asian Relations Pacific Forum CSIS announces the inaugural issue of Comparative Connections, a quarterly electronic journal on East Asian bilateral relations edited by Ralph A. Cossa and Rebecca Goodgame Ebinger. This new e-journal allows interested specialists and non-specialists alike to stay informed on key bilateral relationships in the Asia Pacific region. It features short analytical essays along with chronologies laying out significant events involving or impacting each bilateral relationship during the just ended three months. Each quarter's edition features a regional overview assessing trends and developments that affect the region as a whole, as well as highlighting important developments in individual bilateral relations in the region. The journal is available at http://www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html 3. Beijing NGO Conference on DPRK The Conference Proceedings of the International NGO Conference on Humanitarian Assistance to the DPR Korea: Past, Present and Future, held on May 3-5, 1999 in Beijing, are now available. They can be downloaded at the Interaction Group website at: http://www.interaction.org/disaster/index.html You can also receive the proceedings by sending e-mail to Stephen Hricik at shricik@interaction.org. The document is 91 pages long, and can be sent as an attachment or as a zip file (for Word 95).
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