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I. United States1. Japanese Missile Defense Agence France Presse ("US ENVOY URGES JAPAN TO WEIGH DEPLOYMENT OF ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE," Toyko, 11/05/99) reported that former US Defense Secretary William Perry, in Tokyo on a private visit, said on Friday that if the DPRK were to threaten Japan, that would be a strong incentive to deploy theater missile defense (TMD). He added, "But in the meantime, the US, Japan and the ROK are all working to convince the DPRK not to make such attempts." Perry issued the statement to clarify remarks made in an interview with the Japanese press that he said "may have been misinterpreted." The Asahi Shimbun quoted Perry as saying that he personally would not recommend Japan to equip itself with the TMD system for fear it could trigger an arms build-up with the PRC. Perry said that his statement to the newspaper referred to a future decision to deploy the TMD, not simply to develop it. He also said, "When I was secretary of defense I recommended that Japan cooperate with the US in TMD research and I still believe this is a prudent move for the Japanese government." 2. US-PRC Military Relations The Washington Post (Elizabeth Becker, "SUSPENSION OF MILITARY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA AND U.S. TO END," Washington, 11/05/99), The New York Times (Elizabeth Becker, "SUSPENSION OF MILITARY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA AND U.S. TO END," Washington, 11/05/99), and The Washington Times (Bill Gertz "COHEN HOPES TO RESUME TIES WITH CHINA," Washington, 11/05/99) reported that US Secretary of Defense William Cohen said on November 4 that the PRC and the US have agreed to resume military-to-military contacts. Cohen added, however, that the two countries have yet to agree on how they will go about reviving the full military relationship, which has included high-level visits, port calls, joint exercises and negotiations on maritime rules. To that end, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian Affairs Kurt Campbell will visit the PRC this month to pave the way for formal negotiations on resuming military-to-military relations. US Department of Defense spokesman Kenneth Bacon said that those talks could come as soon as January. Cohen also said he would like to exchange visits with PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian "when the conditions permit." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for November 5.] 3. PRC-Taiwan Relations Agence France Presse ("CHINESE OFFICIAL SAYS TAIWAN QUAKE ROW 'MISUNDERSTANDING'," Beijing, 11/05/99) and Reuters ("CHINA ENVOY RENEWS CONDITIONS FOR TAIWAN TRIP," Shanghai, 11/5/99) reported that the China Daily wrote that president of the PRC Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) Wang Daohan said that cross strait relations had improved this week thanks to a fact-finding visit to the Shanghai Seismology Bureau by a delegation of 50 Taiwanese seismologists. The visit was the first exchange between Taiwan and the PRC since a row broke out over the PRC's response to the September 21 earthquake in Taiwan. Wang on Thursday told the delegation that the PRC had never held back relief from Taiwan or tried to use the quake for political purposes. He told the mission there should be more dialogue between both sides to clear up hostilities and misunderstanding. He said that both sides can further improve relations with more visits, but said the next move should be made by Taiwanese leaders. Wang said he was ready to visit Taiwan to meet with his counterpart chairman of Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation, Koo Chen-fu. China Daily, however, cited ARATS sources as saying that Wang would go only if Taiwanese authorities abandoned Lee Tung-hui's "two-states theory," and if Lee agreed to meet Wang as chairman of the Kuomintang instead of as President of the Republic of China on Taiwan. Agence France Presse ("CHINA WARNS AUSTRALIA NOT TO SIDE WITH US OVER TAIWAN," 11/05/99) reported that the PRC threatened Australia on Friday with "very serious consequences" if it sided with the US in the event of a war with Taiwan. Li Doayu, a top advisor to PRC President Jiang Zemin, was quoted as saying that the PRC wanted to avoid using military force to prevent Taiwan breaking away from the "motherland," but could be forced to do so. Doayu also said in an interview in the Australian Financial Review newspaper that if war were to break out, "the reunification of China is entirely an internal affair and no foreign country should try to meddle." 4. PRC Membership in G8 Agence France-Presse ("SCHROEDER ARRIVES IN SHANGHAI PUSHING FOR CHINA'S G8 MEMBERSHIP," Shanghai, 11/02/99) and Reuters (Jeremy Page, "GERMANY'S SCHROEDER URGES CHINA ROLE IN G8," Beijing, 11/05/99) reported that German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder arrived in Shanghai late Tuesday, after a three- day visit to Japan. Asked at a news conference in Tokyo earlier Tuesday whether the PRC should join the Group of 8 (G8) of industrialized countries, Schroeder stated, "My answer is in the medium-term, yes, but it should respect several conditions. There are still difficult points such as the problem of transparency, the resolution and prevention of political conflicts, and more cooperation with other countries." PRC Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue stated, "The Chinese side is ready to strengthen communication and exchanges with the G8." She added, "The Chinese side attaches importance to the role of G8. In recent years the two sides have maintained contacts." Reuters ("CHINA'S ZHU GIVES G8 PROPOSAL CAUTIOUS WELCOME," Berlin, 11/04/99) reported that PRC Premier Zhu Rongji, in an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, was quoted on Thursday as expressing appreciation for German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's proposal for closer ties between the PRC and the Group of Eight Nations. Zhu added that the PRC would consider the proposal but was uncertain of the reaction of other members of the G8. Reuters ("JAPAN SOUNDS CAUTIOUS NOTE OVER EXPANDED G8 -KYODO," Tokyo, 11/02/99) reported that Japan's Kyodo news agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Sadaaki Numata as saying on Tuesday that Japan is unsure of Germany's proposal to include the PRC in the Group of Eight (G8). Numata stated, "Generally speaking, we need to consider within the G8 members whether a membership expansion would enable us to maintain effective policy coordination." He added, "There's also a problem over whether China wishes to join." 5. Spratly Islands Dispute Agence France Presse ("CHINA ACCUSES PHILIPPINES OF HARASSING CHINESE FISHING BOATS IN SPRATLYS," Manila, 11/05/99) reported that the PRC embassy in Manila wrote a letter on November 4 to the Philippine foreign office about a Philippine navy gunship that allegedly chased three Chinese fishing boats on November 2 and caused them to disappear on November 4 off the Philippine-claimed Scarborough Shoal in the Spratly Islands. PRC embassy spokesman Wang Ni said late Friday that the PRC had established contact with the boats and that "the fishermen are all safe." He said the embassy would have to consult with the PRC foreign ministry on whether to file a formal protest with the Philippines. Philippine Defense Undersecretary Ruben Carranza on Friday denied the PRC allegation of a chase but confirmed having received the letter and a report that a Philippine navy ship, the BRP Quezon, had sighted three Chinese fishing boats apparently seeking shelter near Scarborough. Carranza said that the navy ship neither harassed the fishing boats nor "in any way prevented [them] from seeking shelter in the area. We received no report of any harassment or any untoward incident." The foreign ministers of Malaysia and the Philippines said on November 4 that both countries have agreed on a need for a code of conduct for the disputed area. The code is to be discussed at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) informal summit here on November 28, which will include the leaders of ASEAN and their dialogue partners--the PRC, Japan and the ROK. 1. US Congressional Report on DPRK Joongang Ilbo ("'NK CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NUKE,' US LAWMAKERS SAY," Seoul, 11/04/99) and the Korea Times ("KOREA REMAINS A THREAT TO WASHINGTON: US LAWMAKERS," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that, according to a study by a panel of US congressional Republicans, the DPRK's development of weapons of mass destruction is posing an increasing threat to the US and its allies. The report was written by the DPRK Advisory Group, made up of nine Republican members of the US Congress at the request of House of Representatives Speaker Dennis Hastert, Republican-Illinois. The report stated that in addition to chemical and biological weapons, there is "significant evidence" that the DPRK is continuing to develop nuclear weapons despite a commitment five years ago to remain nuclear-free. The report also claimed that a dramatic improvement in the DPRK's missile capabilities now permits the country to reach US territory with a "high explosive chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapon. Currently, the Unitd States is unable to defend against this threat." US Representative Sam Gejdenson, senior Democrat on the House International Relations Committee, agreed that the DPRK poses a threat but criticized the report on grounds that it offers no policy recommendations different from what the current US administration is carrying out. Another Democratic congressional aide said that appeals by Democrats to take part in the policy review were rejected by Republicans. In releasing the report, committee chairman Benjamin Gilman, Republican-New York, said it was "inexplicable and inexcusable" that the Clinton administration negotiated a deal with the DPRK in 1994 that did not block the DPRK's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, responding to the report, said that the US is "very conscious" of the threat from the DPRK and has been working with Japan and the ROK to mitigate it. The Korea Herald (Lee Chang-sup, "GOV'T DOWNPLAYS REPUBLICAN REPORT ON NK," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that the ROK government downplayed a report by the US Republican DPRK Advisory Group. A government official described the report as unconfirmed and said that that it contains speculation taken from the media. An ROK Foreign Affairs-Trade ministry official said, "Kumchang-ri is the only site where North Korea is suspected of developing or storing nuclear weapons since the signing of the Geneva agreement in 1994. We would like to accommodate the Republican Party's report as a suggestion that Korea and the United States should be on constant alert for the possibility of North Korea's developing nuclear weapons." The official also interpreted the report as an attempt to differentiate Republican DPRK policy from that of the Democrats ahead of the presidential election next year. The official noted, "The report is apparently designed to appeal to American voters worried about North Korea's ambitions to develop weapons of mass destruction. Whoever is elected to the White House next year, North Korea policy will not deviate fundamentally from that President Clinton has been pursuing." 2. DPRK Chemical Weapons Joongang Ilbo (Kang Joo-an, "NORTH KOREA STOCKPILES 5,000 TONS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that, according to the Stars and Stripes on November 2, the DPRK has reportedly stockpiled 5,000 tons of chemical weapons. The Stars and Stripes, citing a source at the Center for Defense Information, a private, non- profit research organization based in Washington, reported, "North Korea's chemical agents include mustard gas, phosgene, sarin and VX agents." The newspaper added, "U.S. Forces Korea officials announced they would begin distributing gas masks and protective hoods to all U.S. military family members and nonessential government employees stationed in South Korea in mid-November." Producing and stockpiling chemical weapons was prohibited in 1997 by the Chemical Weapons Convention, which the DPRK has not signed. 3. Rajin-Sonbong Free Trade Zone Chosun Ilbo (Jung Kwon-hyun, "NK MARKET AT NAJIN-SONGBONG REPORTED CLOSED," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that Hisako Seuji, a senior researcher of the Japanese Pacific Rim Economic Research Institute, wrote in the 30th issue of the Erina Report on his visit to the Rajin-Sonbong Free Trade Zone in the DPRK in early September. According to Seuji, the trade market itself is closed, although it still seemed to have an extravagant appearance. Seuji also wrote that DPRK authorities started to restrict individuals from participating in market trading from autumn last year and that the market was finally closed down in April of this year. Seuji said that the DPRK authorities in Rajin- Sonbong interfered in trading and are importing PRC products in bulk. However, according to Seuji, the dissatisfaction is mounting and black markets are appearing in some areas. Meanwhile, Seuji also said that the DPRK authorities stated that they did not want ROK nationals to come and that they will not accept ROK capital. Seuji also quoted DPRK authorities as having said that some ROK investors had already visited the free trade zone several times but that they did not honor their contracts. 4. Kim Jong-il's Successor Joongang Ilbo (Kang Joo-an, "NK LEADER KIM JONG-IL'S SON JOINS GOVERNMENT," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that a high-ranking ROK government official announced that Kim Jong-nam, 28, the eldest son of the DPRK leader Kim Jong-il, has started working at the DPRK Ministry of Public Security. According to the unnamed official, the DPRK Ministry of Public Security is a crucial government administration in charge of gathering information and rooting out dissidents. The source added, "Kim Jong-nam traveled in Europe with five young women, without any particular task, until early this year. This is the first step related to the succession of Kim Jong-il." Kim Jong-nam, the son of the DPRK leader Kim and Sung Hye-rim, who was rumored to have been exiled, studied in Moscow and Geneva. Another official at the Ministry of Unification said, "Perhaps Kim Jong-il accepted a suggestion from his advisors on raising his successor." 5. DPRK Human Rights Joongang Ilbo (Bong Hwa-shik, "N. KOREA WORST IN HUMAN RIGHTS," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that according to Freedom House, a US human rights institute, the DPRK records the worst standards of freedom for its inhabitants in the world. The Freedom House on Thursday posted the results of its survey on civil and political freedoms entitled "Freedom in the World 1998-1999" on the Internet, and stated, "Even the most basic elements of a civil society do not exist in North Korea.... North Korea is arguably the most tightly-controlled country in the world." On political rights and civil freedoms, the DPRK received the lowest grade (7) along with 13 other countries, including Afghanistan, Myanmar, Cuba, Libya, Sudan and Syria. Freedom House described the DPRK as a barren society in which there are no democratic power shifts, no opposition groups, executions for "counterrevolutionary crimes," arrests for unreasonable causes, imprisonment of perceived political dissidents, and no rights to move. It also suggested that the DPRK keeps all its people under electronic surveillance while encouraging young children to report on their parents. 6. ROK-US-Japan Cooperation on DPRK Policy Joongang Ilbo (Bong Hwa-shik, "KOREA-US-JAPAN MEET IN WASHINGTON," Seoul, 11/04/99) and the Korea Herald (Shin Yong-bae, "OFFICIALS FROM SEOUL, WASHINGTON, TOKYO TO MEET MONDAY ON N.K. POLICY," Seoul, 11/05/99) reported that, according to Chang Chul-kyoon, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the ROK, the US, and Japan will hold a strategic meeting on DPRK policy in Washington on November 8 and 9, in advance of the US-DPRK conference on November 15 in Berlin. Chang stated, "The session will go over the lifting of North Korean sanctions and the three countries' mutual cooperation in their dealings with North Korea. The three nations will discuss preparations for the Berlin talks aimed at improving relations between the United States and the North." Chang also said the implementation of the comprehensive peace proposals recommended by William Perry, US policy coordinator on DPRK, would be tabled at the three-way talks. The meeting will be attended by ROK Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Jang Jai-ryong, counselor to the US Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, and Japanese director general for foreign policy Yukio Takeuchi. 7. DPRK-Mongolian Relations Chosun Ilbo (Chung Kwon-hyun, "MONGOLIAN PRIME MINISTER TO VISIT NK," Seoul, 11/02/99) reported that the DPRK's Central Radio reported on Tuesday that the Mongolian Prime Minister Rinchinnyamiin Amarjargal is to visit the DPRK. The broadcast stated, "Rinchinnyamiin Amarjargal, the Mongolian Prime Minister, will visit our country, at the invitation of comrade Hong Song-nam, the People' Party Prime Minister." Meanwhile, an ROK government official said on October 25 that Prime Minister Amarjargal will pay an official visit to the ROK from November 8 to November 10, after visiting the DPRK for 2 days from November 4 and stopping over in the PRC. The DPRK established diplomatic relationships with Mongolia in 1948 but closed its embassy in Mongolia last August immediately after ROK President Kim Dae-jung's state visit to Mongolia. 8. ROK-DPRK Soccer Exchange Chosun Ilbo ("CHUNG MONG-CHOON TO VISIT NK ," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that Chung Mong-choon, chairman of the Korean Soccer Federation and the ROK's representative to the Federation of International Football Associations' 2002 World Cup Organizing Committee, will visit the DPRK starting next Monday for four days. During his stay Chung is expected to discuss mutual interests. In addition, Chung is expected to address whether or not the DPRK could host two of the upcoming thirty-two World Cup games scheduled to be held in the ROK. Chung will also discuss an inter-Korean football match and the creation of a four-country competition including the PRC and Japan. 9. DPRK Circus Troupe's Visit to ROK The Korea Herald ("SEOUL CONSIDERS USING GOV'T FUNDS FOR N.K. CIRCUS TOUR," Seoul, 11/05/99) reported that, according to a Unification Ministry official, the ROK government is considering providing financial assistance for a series of performances by the DPRK circus troupe in Seoul from its inter-Korean cooperation fund. The official said that Kyemyong Production Co., the ROK sponsor of the Pyongyang Circus Troupe's performances next month, applied for financial assistance from the fund late last month and is consulting with related government agencies. 10. PRC-ROK Relations The Korea Herald ("CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTER DUE HERE IN DEC.," Seoul, 11/03/99) reported that the ROK Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry officials said that PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan will visit the ROK next month at the invitation of Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Hong Soon-young. According to the officials, during his trip to the ROK Tang will meet with Hong to discuss mutual concerns, including security on the Korean Peninsula. Tang is also scheduled to pay a courtesy call on President Kim Dae-jung. Tang is also expected to explain to top ROK leaders the outcome of his recent visit to the DPRK. 11. Korean War Massacre Chosun Ilbo (Kim Soo-hye, "US NOGEUN-RI VETERAN SPEAKS OUT," Seoul, 11/03/99) carried an interview with Edward L. Daily, who was one of the machine gunners that fired at war refugees at Nogeun-ri. Daily stated, "I received the orders of Colonel Omar Hichner, the commander of the 2nd battalion of the 7th regiment of the 1st cavalry division, from private first class Harold Skaggs, the company's liaison soldier, on the afternoon of July 26, 1950 to shoot the refugees who were coming out from the rail-bridge/underpass, considering them as the enemy and I fired the machine gun." Daily said that the order to "consider the refugees as the enemy" came from the top commander's office of the 8th US Army, which was in charge of the 24th and 25th infantry divisions, and the 1st cavalry division. Daily added, "Therefore, the ultimate responsible lies with the commander of the 8th US Army at that time, Lieutenant General Walton Walker." 12. Japan's Evacuation Plan for Korean Peninsula Chosun Ilbo (Yu Yong-weon, "JAPAN'S EVACUATION PLAN FOR CITIZENS IN KOREA," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that Japan has devised a plan, titled "Non-Combatant Evacuation Directive," for sending Japan's Self Defense Forces to the Korean peninsula in time of war for the stated purpose of evacuating Japanese civilians. According to the Directive, when a "Defcon 1" situation occurs on the Korean peninsula, Japan will declare the state of emergency and then immediately insert an evacuation team of Self Defense Forces on the Korean peninsula. Aircraft would pick up Japanese citizens at Seoul Land in Songnam City and Kimpo international Airport, and a naval vessel would be sent to the port of Inchon. The policy states that in principle such action would "respect Korean sovereignty" and that Self Defense Forces sent to the ROK would avoid areas of direct contact with the DPRK forces and instead maneuver under the direction of ROK military authorities. 13. ROK's Troops in East Timor The Korea Herald ("DEFENSE MINISTRY DENIES PLAN TO SEND MORE TROOPS TO E. TIMOR," Seoul, 11/04/99) reported that ROK Defense Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Yoon Il-young on Thursday denied news reports that the ROK intends to send more troops to East Timor. Yoon contradicted news dispatches from East Timor and said that the 419 ROK troops now there are enough for the far eastern province of Lautem. Yoon stated, "News reports said that the International Force in East Timor asked Colonel Park In-chul for South Korea to send more troops. But it is the United Nations, not the force, that could make such a request, and the request would be delivered to the Defense Ministry via the Foreign Ministry. But we have not yet received such a request from the United Nations." Yoon added, "We had a hard time obtaining National Assembly approval to send troops there, and it would be even more difficult to get another parliamentary approval for more troops." Yoon also denied a report that the Defense Ministry was considering replacing the 150-member combat force with medics and engineers. He said, "The key mission of the South Korean force is to restore order in the territory." 1. Japanese Policy toward DPRK The Yomiuri Shimbun ("GOVERNMENT STRENGTHENS ‘DIALOGUE APPROACH’ TO DPRK," 11/04/99) reported that the Japanese government has strengthened its "dialogue approach" to the DPRK by ending the ban on Japanese-DPRK chartered flights on November 2 and resuming unofficial contacts with DPRK authorities. The report also said that the government hopes that a non-partisan delegation of Japanese politicians to the DPRK, led by former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, will be a step toward Japanese-DPRK governmental-level dialogue. The report said that these actions indicate that Japan is shifting from "deterrence" to "dialogue," but given the remaining economic sanctions on the DPRK, including the continued ban on food aid to the DPRK, there is till anti-DPRK sentiment within the Japanese government. The report suggested that the sources of such anti-DPRK sentiment include the unresolved issue of the DPRK's alleged abduction of Japanese civilians. 2. Japanese-ROK-US Talks The Asahi Shimbun ("JAPANESE-US WORKING-LEVEL TALK ON DPRK POLICY WILL BE HELD ON NOVEMBER 15," 11/05/99) reported that Japan, the ROK and the US will hold a working- level talk on policy toward the DPRK in the US, slated to begin on November 15. According to the report, the talk aims to coordinate policy toward the DPRK among the three countries. The report predicts that the focus of the talk will be to analyze what the DPRK will do as a response to the Perry report. 3. Japanese Technology in DPRK Submarine The Asahi Shimbun ("ROUTE OF JAPANESE PARTS IN DPRK SUB IS FOUND," 11/03/99) reported that the ROK Defense Department and other authorities found that parts of the DPRK submarine captured by the ROK last June were bought from a Japanese company in Kobe specializing in navigational electric appliances. The technologies used in the submarine, including the global positioning system, were exported to Hong Kong last March. According to the ROK military, 287 of all the submarine parts were Japanese-mad, including the 7 very core parts of the sub. The report added that according to the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), such exports are legal and the route of DPRK weapons technology was specified for the very first time. 4. Japanese-ROK Territorial Dispute The Asahi Shimbun ("ROK TO BEGIN REGULAR TOURIST SHIPS TO TAKESHIMA/TOKDO ISLAND," 11/5/99) reported that it was revealed on November 4 that the ROK government already permitted regular tourist ships to Takeshima/Tokdo Island despite its dispute with Japan over ownership of the island. According to the report, the ROK decided to extend the current tourist shuttle ships to Takeshima/Tokdo Island once a month. However, tourists will not be allowed to get off the ship and land on the island. The report added that the first ship will start sailing on November 6 and that 300 tourists have already registered for the passage. 5. Japanese Nuclear Policy The Sankei Shimbun ("PRIME MINISTER DECIDES TO INCLUDE SDF’S INVOLVEMENT IN NUCLEAR EMERGENCY," 11/05/99) reported that the Japanese government decided on November 4 to involve the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) in nuclear emergencies such as the one that recently occurred in Tokaimura. The report said that the JSDF's actual moves in such an emergency would be determined officially by the Prime Minister’s "nuclear emergency declaration." The report also said that the current "disaster relief basic law" cannot fully cover nuclear accidents and that the Prime Minister's declaration would be part of a nuclear emergency bill to be discussed from now on. The report added that such a bill would also require revision of the current JSDF law to justify the JSDF's involvement in nuclear disasters.
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