3. Analysis of US-PRC Standoff
Analysts said that the strong economic interests that bind the PRC and the US together should limit long-term damage to relations from the spy plane crisis, despite resistance from hawks in both camps. Guo Xiangang, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, a think thank attached to the PRC foreign ministry, said, "I'd expect no catastrophic consequences from the standoff." The Washington Post published an opinion article by Samuel R. Berger, former national security adviser to US President Bill Clinton, which said that what the US has learned from the spy plane standoff is that the US relationship with the PRC remains volatile and can be knocked off the tracks with one wrong turn. The Wall Street Journal reported that analysts said that US-PRC relations are likely to face tensions in the coming months and the "crucial variable" is whether the moderates on both sides can find new ways to communicate with and strengthen each other, or whether they have been weakened and disillusioned by the incident. US analysts said the collision between the US and PRC planes exposed a fissure in Bush's administration between hawkish, anti-PRC factions, and the diplomacy-first strategy of moderates and the US State Department.
"Effect of Incident on US-PRC Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 13, US)
"US-PRC Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 12, US)
"Effects of US-PRC Spy Plane Incident" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 11, US)
The New York Times reported that the spy plane incident succeeded in getting the PRC government greater attention from the US President George W. Bush administration. An opinion article by Bates Gill of the Brookings Institution said that the recent US-PRC spy plane incident had lessons on how to deal with the PRC. Gill argued, "Beijing held a lot of cards in this incident, but in the end America held the card that mattered most, namely China's long-term need for a stable working relationship with the United States." An opinion article by James Lilley and Arthur Waldron of the American Enterprise Institute said that the spy plane incident could have the effect of removing "dangerous illusions" on both sides regarding the PRC-US relationship.
"US Policy toward PRC" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 12, US)
"US Opinions on Spy Plane Incident" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 12, US)
"Analysis of US-PRC Standoff" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 9, US)
"World Opinion on PRC-US Air-Collision" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 10, PRC)
The PRC government went all out to convince its people that it had won a moral victory in releasing the crew of the US spy plane after receiving what it billed as a contrite letter from the US. There is a growing anti-American sentiment in the PRC where the US is seen displaying hegemonic behavior that is more similar to being the world's biggest criminal rather than the world's policeman. However, there were plenty of skeptical rumblings, especially on university campuses and in Internet chat rooms. Recent reforms to streamline and scale down the PRC military are paying an unexpected dividend to the armed forces: a stronger voice in foreign policy, as evidenced by a pivotal role in the dispute over the downed US reconnaissance plane. The PRC is continuing aerial surveillance targeted at collecting electronic communications from Taiwan, Vietnam and areas of the South China Sea. According to a letter signed by PRC Ambassador to the US Yang Jiechi, received by some US lawmakers, the PRC has advised US members of Congress to separate the PRC bid to hold the 2008 Olympics from the current spy-plane diplomatic row.
"PRC Views of Incident" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 13, US)
"Popular PRC Sentiments About Standoff" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 9, US)
"PRC Government Position on Incident" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 10, US)
"PRC Military Role in Spy Plane Standoff" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 9, US)
"South China Seas Espionage" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 10, US)
"PRC Olympic Bid" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 10, US)
The Washington Post carried an analytical article which said that the US-PRC spy plane standoff was mostly a diplomatic one handled by the US State Department when in the past several administrations the most important breakthroughs in diplomacy with the PRC were handled by the president's national security adviser.
"US Policymaking" (NAPSNet Daily Report, April 13, US)