NAPSNet Week in Review, July 20, 2001

	Week In Review July 20, 2001 Korea 1. DPRK Participation in ARF 2. G-8 Meeting 3. DPRK Nuclear Inspections 4. US-DPRK Talks 5. ROK-DPRK Naval Row 6. DPRK-Russia Arms Talks 7. US Bases in ROK China 1. PRC Political Succession 2. US View of Beijing Olympics 3. PRC Military 4. Cross-Straits Relations 5. Taiwanese Views on Unification 6. Taiwan Role in Spratlys 7. US-Taiwan Military Relations Japan 1. Constitution 2. Aid to PRC 3. US Troops in Japan 4. Textbook Issue 5. Yasukuni Shrine Russia 1. Threats to RF South Asia 1. India-Pakistan Relations Pre-Summit 2. India-Pakistan Summit 3. Regional Institutions Security 1. US Policy in Asia 2. US Forward Deployment in Asia 3. US-Philippines Military Relationship Nuclear Weapons 1. India-PRC Nuclear Strategy 2. India-Pakistan Nuclear Parity Missile Defense 1. Russia-PRC Friendship Treaty 2. Russia-US Talks 3. US Missile Test		Project Description NAPSNet Reports Current Daily Report Special Reports Profile Directory Member Survey Results Browse Past Updates: Preceding Weekly Update Week in Review Archive Search Nautilus Site Recent Postings Korean Peninsula: Are There Things More Important, than Peace? Georgi Toloraya March 20, 2001 PFO 01-02I Bush Should Listen To A Korean Elder Statesman Aidan Foster-Carter March 13, 2001 PFO 01-02G North Korea: Avoid Another Crossroads William J. Taylor March 13, 2001 PFO 01-02F North Korea Policy: Steady As She Goes William J. Taylor March 7, 2001 PFO 01-02E *Search Daily Reports:* Email Services: Signup for Email Delivery Latest Report Emailed Now *Send Comments*
	Korea
	1. DPRK Participation in ARF DPRK Embassy attache Hong Chong-gil said Thursday in Vietnam that DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun will not attend a regional security meeting in Vietnam next week. Instead, the DPRK said it would dispatch a vice minister-level ambassador to the ARF foreign ministers' meeting slated to open in Hanoi July 25. "DPRK Participation in ARF" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 19, US) "DPRK Participation in ARF" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, ROK) Officials and analysts said the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is likely to adopt landmark procedures to help prevent regional disputes at its annual meeting in Hanoi next week. The procedures should give the legitimacy in resolving bilateral and multilateral problems, like the Korean conflict and overlapping claims to the Spratly islands in the South China Sea. "ASEAN Regional Forum" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, US)
	2. G-8 Meeting The Italian ambassador to the ROK stated that leaders of the Group of Eight (G-8) nations will adopt a joint statement to call on the DPRK to engage in talks with the ROK and the US in order to reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula. "G-8 Meeting" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 19, ROK)
	3. DPRK Nuclear Inspections The state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that the DPRK would not receive an inspection team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). KCNA also added that the IAEA's insistence on "early verification" and "inspection" despite the DPRK's serious energy loss from the delay of light water reactor construction shows for itself that the IAEA is dancing to the US's tune. "DPRK Nuclear Inspections" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 19, ROK)
	4. US-DPRK Talks The DPRK criticized the US on Friday for a missile defense test and threatened to scrap all agreements with the US. The DPRK criticized US deputy secretary of National Defense Paul Wolfowitz for his previous argument that called for increase in military budget to fight off a DPRK missile attack in the future. "DPRK View of US Missile Defense" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, US) "DPRK Criticism of US" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, ROK) A senior administration official said last week that raising the issue of DPRK conventional force deployment was not a precondition for resuming dialogue. The official said, "I don't think we've set the bar high. If we had set the bar high, we'd have been saying that there were particular preconditions that we've asked [for] to meet with the North Koreans." "US-DPRK Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, US)
	5. ROK-DPRK Naval Row The DPRK on Wednesday denounced the ROK for blocking its cargo ships from traveling through the strait between the ROK mainland and Cheju Island. "ROK-DPRK Naval Row" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US)
	6. DPRK-Russia Arms Talks An informed ROK government source reported that DPRK Defense Minister Kim Il-chul requested from Russia Mig-29 fighters, T-90 main battle tanks and armored combat vehicles in exchange for linking the trans-Korea railroad (TKR) to the trans-Siberian (TSR). "DPRK-Russia Arms Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, ROK)
	7. US Bases in ROK The ROK Defense Ministry said that the US will close at least 15 major US military installations and numerous training facilities in the ROK over the next 10 years. Under its land readjustment program, US Forces Korea (USFK) proposed returning 132 million square meters of land and in return the USFK requested that the ROK government grant new land for its consolidated bases and training facilities. US Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for the Combined Forces Command, Colonel Robert E. Durbin, said that there will be no cuts in US troop strength in the ROK. "US Bases in ROK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 19, ROK) "US Bases in ROK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, ROK) "US Bases in ROK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US) "US Bases in ROK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 16, ROK)
	China
	1. PRC Political Succession In autumn 2002, the PRC's 16th Communist Party Congress is expected to elect a new Permanent Committee of the Politburo, and by spring 2003, Jiang Zemin, Li Peng and Zhu Rongi are expected to give their posts to other people. Hu Zintao is expected to become the Secretary general and Li Zhuihuan will head the parliament. "PRC Political Succession" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, RF)
	2. US View of Beijing Olympics US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Monday that the PRC's selection as the site for the 2008 Summer Olympics will put the country under "seven years of supervision" by the international community and could prod the PRC government toward more openness and democracy. "US View of Beijing Olympics" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US)
	3. PRC Military The RAND Corp was fired by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), a group that reports to US Central Intelligence Agency chief George Tenet, from a classified project to assess the future military capabilities of the PRC. It was reported that the eventual report would depict the PRC as a growing military power, but as no match for the US in the near future, but that the NIC appeared to be looking for a more alarming conclusion. "PRC Military Development" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 16, US) PRC officials have signed a contract with the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Production Association to supply upward of US$2 billion worth of Su-30 MKK ground-attack planes. One report put the number of jets at 38. "PRC Jet Purchases" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, US)
	4. Cross-Straits Relations The Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee held talks with the visiting Taiwan "New Party Mainland Affairs Committee Delegation"(MACD) in Beijing on July 11, exchanging views on major issues in cross-Straits relations and reaching six items of common understanding. "Cross-Straits Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US) "Cross-Straits Reunification Proposal" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US)
	5. Taiwanese Views on Unification According to a survey by Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) released Wednesday, fewer people in Taiwan oppose reuniting with the PRC under the "one country, two systems" framework. However, the number of those in favor of reuniting was also dropping. "Taiwanese Views on Unification" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US)
	6. Taiwan Role in Spratlys A PRC foreign ministry official said Wednesday that Taiwan will not be allowed to join a code of conduct meeting aimed at easing tensions in the South China Sea to be discussed at an ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting in Vietnam next week. "Taiwan Role in Spratlys" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US)
	7. US-Taiwan Military Relations The US Defense Department confirmed for the first time on July 19 that it holds regular secret talks with Taiwan military officials to discuss "the defense of Taiwan." US Defense Department spokesman Rear Admiral Craig Quigley said that US defense officials have met seven times since 1997 with Taiwan's military officers. "US-Taiwan Military Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, US) Taiwan defense ministry spokesman Huang Suey-sheng said Tuesday that Taiwan may participate in the US missile shield project and also hold joint military maneuvers with the US amid the perceived PRC military threat against the island. "US-Taiwan Military Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US) The US has still not found a supplier for the eight diesel submarines promised to Taiwan in April. Jonathan Pollack, chairman of strategic research at the US Naval War College, said, "I don't get any sense at all that in making this decision the administration gamed it out in advance." "Submarine Sales to Taiwan" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 16, US)
	Japan
	1. Constitution Howard H. Baker, the new US ambassador to Japan, said on July 17 that Japan's participation in the planned US missile defense system may force it to decide "before very long" whether to revise the pacifist constitution that restricts its military. "Japanese Constitution" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US)
	2. Aid to PRC Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa urged his government to cut back on development aid to emerging military powers, including the PRC. "Japanese Aid to PRC" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US)
	3. US Troops in Japan Choko Zukeran, a spokesman for the District prosecutors office in Naha, the Okinawa prefectural capital in Japan, said that US Staff Sergeant Timothy Woodland was charged with rape for the June 29 attack on a 20-year-old woman. "US Troops in Okinawa" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 19, US) The US military on Okinawa agreed on July 13 to step up military courtesy patrols in the island's entertainment districts. Japanese Foreign Ministry officials said that the US agreed on July 18 to discuss changing the Japan-US Status-of-Forces Agreement (SOFA) to help ease the transfer to Japanese police of US military personnel suspected of committing crimes in Japan. "US Bases on Okinawa" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 16, US) "US Troops in Japan" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 20, US)
	4. Textbook Issue Japanese premier Junichiro Koizumi on Wednesday urged calm in an escalating row between his Japan and the ROK over school textbooks after the parliament in the ROK unanimously adopted an anti-Japan resolution. The ROK National Assembly had urged a campaign against Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. "Japanese Textbook Issue" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US)
	5. Yasukuni Shrine ROK officials said Tuesday that the ROK will ask Japan to remove names of Korean war dead from the Yasukuni Shrine in central Tokyo. It was not known until 1991 that more than 21,000 tablets venerating the spirits of Korean war dead were preserved alongside 2.46 million Japanese war dead. "Korean War Dead in Japanese Shrine" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US)
	Russia
	1. Threats to RF Anatoly Kvashnin, Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, at a conference in the RF Defense Ministry named specific geographic areas from which RF is threatened, including Afghanistan, the Balkans, and from a ROK-DPRK naval conflict. "Threats to RF" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, RF)
	South Asia
	1. India-Pakistan Relations Pre-Summit The Indian Council for Social Science Research held a two-day conference at which participants stressed the need for the (now concluded) summit to agree on specific confidence building measures between India and Pakistan. An editorial by Ayesha Haroon argues that India's pre-summit goodwill gestures, such as freeing Pakistani fishermen and offering scholarships, have no relevance to solving the essential issues in India-Pakistan bilateral relations. Haroon advocates the inclusion of Kashmiri groups in the talks. Dileep Padgaonkar argues that Musharraf will need to agree that Kashmir can be discussed only within the larger context of India-Pakistan relations. "Commentary on Summit" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29) In meetings with the leadership of his National Democratic Alliance party, Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee received support for engaging Pakistan. Vajpayee also sought several unilateral steps in advance of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's arrival in India. As Musharraf began his visit to India, Indian defense officials announced that India had begun the phased withdrawal of 20,000 troops from along the Line of Control. "India-Pakistan Summit" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29) "Military Pullback in Kashmir" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29)
	2. India-Pakistan Summit The Dawn published the text of a statement made by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf upon his arrival in India. Outlook India published the full text of the statement by Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee at the outset of the summit. The Dawn reports that India is reluctant to "recognize the centrality of the Kashmir issue" and does not want to mention aspirations of Kashmiris in the declaration. Pakistan has also reportedly requested the inclusion of language that referred to the need to have the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference included in future talks on Kashmir. Pakistan and India could not agree on a joint statement as the summit came to a close and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf returned home. However, the two delegations reportedly stood by their core respective issues of Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. "India-Pakistan Summit" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29) "Pakistani Perspectives on Summit" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29) "India-Pakistan Summit" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29) Indian Minister of External Affairs and of Defense Jaswant Singh expressed regret that the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference was invited to a tea party for Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf in New Delhi. On the sidelines of the tea party, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf promised the APHC continued support for Kashmiri militancy. "All-Parties Hurriyat Conference" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29) Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani reportedly proposed to Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf during a 25-minute meeting that the two countries sign an extradition treaty in order to cope with criminals who commit crimes and slip across the border, taking advantage of their strained relations. "India-Pakistan Relations" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29)
	3. Regional Institutions G.V.C. Naidu, at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, writes in a new essay that the uncertainties created by a multipolar Asia means that a combination of balance of power and multilateral mechanisms must evolve in the Asia-Pacific, but that India can play a role as one of the poles of power. "Regional Institutions" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29)
	Security
	1. US Policy in Asia US Secretary of State Colin Powell will take his first trip to Asia as the top US diplomat next week, with visits to the PRC, Japan, the ROK, Vietnam, and Australia. As part of the trip he will attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Post-Ministerial Conference in Hanoi July 24-26. "Colin Powell's Asia Trip" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 19, US)
	2. US Forward Deployment in Asia Admiral Dennis Blair, commander in chief of the US Pacific Command, said that US forces in the region are not likely to suffer cutbacks, despite the US Defense Department's possible plans to overhaul the military. He said that among the biggest threats to stability in Asia is the DPRK. In an editorial, Eddie Lachica said that the object of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's current defense review is commendable, but defense planners need to be careful that in taking the best that technology can offer they do not undermine the principle of US forward-deployed forces in Asia. "US Forward Deployment in Asia" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 19, US)
	3. US-Philippines Military Relationship US commander-in-chief of the Pacific Command (CINCPAC), Admiral Dennis Blair, stated that the US is seeking a return of its troops in the Philippines because of new regional security threats, but without permanent bases. Blair said, "What we are looking for are flexible arrangements so we can work together on the challenges of the future." "US-Philippines Military Relationship" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 16, US)
	Nuclear Weapons
	1. India-PRC Nuclear Strategy Shivaji Mukherjee argues in an essay for the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi that, India and the PRC share other similarities in their nuclear doctrines besides both adopting a No-First-Use (NFU) policy. "India-PRC Nuclear Strategy" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29)
	2. India-Pakistan Nuclear Parity P.K. Gosh criticizes Pakistan's avowed goal of maintaining nuclear parity with India. Gosh argues that "nuclear parity is a multi-dimensional concept" that is "difficult to assess correctly" because of secrecy and a large number of relevant variables. "India-Pakistan Nuclear Parity" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #29)
	Missile Defense
	1. Russia-PRC Friendship Treaty US State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said Tuesday that a new friendship pact between Russia and the PRC will not deter the US from pursuing a missile defense system. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia was not planning to present a joint response with the PRC to US plans to abandon the 1972 ABM treaty and build a missile defense shield. "US View of Russia-PRC Treaty" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US) "Russia-PRC Response to US MD" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US) There were numerous articles covering the PRC-Russia Friendship Treaty. Please see the links below for summaries of those articles and commentaries. "RF Media on RF-PRC Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, RF) "PRC-Russian Friendship Treaty" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US) "PRC-Russian Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US) "PRC-Russian Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 16, US)
	2. Russia-US Talks Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov on Wednesday reiterated again that Russia was ready for intensive dialogue with the US on a proposed new strategic framework. "Russian View of US MD" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 18, US)
	3. US Missile Test US Defense Department officials testified on July 14 that the US military succeeded in the fourth test of missile intercepting technology. On July 15, the Russian Foreign Ministry criticized the US missile test in the Pacific Ocean, saying that this threatens the 1972 Anti- Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty signed between US and the former Soviet Union. "US Missile Test" (NAPSNet Daily Report, July 17, US)
	q The NAPSNet Week in Review aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. We invite you to reply to today's report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network. Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with: International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea The Center for Global Communications, Tokyo, Japan Center for American Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China Robert Brown, Security Program Assistant:napsnet@nautilus.org Berkeley, California, United States Gee Gee Wong, Security Program Assistant: napsnet@nautilus.org Berkeley, California, United States Hans Kristensen, Security Program Officer: napsnet@nautilus.org Berkeley, California, United States Timothy L. Savage, Security Program Officer: napsnet@nautilus.org Berkeley, California, United States Kim Hee-sun: khs688@hotmail.com Seoul, Republic of Korea Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp Tokyo, Japan Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org Moscow, Russian Federation Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn Shanghai, People's Republic of China Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn Shanghai, People's Republic of China