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Week In Review
August 3, 2001

Korea

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Korea

 

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1. Kim Jong-il's Russian Visit

An unnamed senior ROK official stated, "This trip-due to its length and mystery-is being closely watched by our government." Some US and ROK observers expressed fear that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il will use his trip to try to form a stronger military alliance with Russia. Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to sign a declaration stating their shared outlook on world affairs, and their discussions may include the two countries' shared opposition to US plans for a national missile defense system. 150 people are reportedly accompanying Kim to Moscow, including former prime minister Yon Hyong-muk, chief protocol officer Jon Hui-jong, and Kim Yong-chun, chief of the military's general staff.
"Kim Jong-il's Russian Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)
"DPRK-Russian Military Trade" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)
"Kim Jung Il's Russia Trip" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, ROK)
"Kim Jong-Il's Russia Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"Appearances of DPRK Officials" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"Kim Jong-il's Russian Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)
"Kim Jong-il's Visit to Russia" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)

"Multilateral economic cooperation- involving Russia, the North, South Koreas and maybe also China- is high on the agenda" for the summit, as is a railway accord on linking the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) and Trans- Korean Railway (TKR). Russia plans to use the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR) to provide food aid to the DPRK in time for the 53rd anniversary of the DPRK. Russia will also provide some US$2 billion in assistance to the railway modernization project in the DPRK.
"DPRK-Russian Economic Cooperation" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"DPRK-Russian Economic Cooperation" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)
"Russian Aid to DPRK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)
"Russian Aid to DPRK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, ROK)

DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's train faced a bomb threat and may have been shot at during its movement through Russia's Far East.
"Kim Jong-il's Russia Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, US)
"Kim Jong-il's Trip to Russia" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, ROK)

 

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2. Commentary on Kim Jong-il's Russian Visit

Ivo H. Daalder, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il is using his trip to Russia to reopen talks with the US. However, the DPRK also has condemned the US for being responsible of cutting the inter-Korean dialogue and reviving the Cold War sentiment within the Korean Peninsula. Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military analyst, argued that Russia has an incentive to encourage engagement with the DPRK to gain the upper-hand with the US over missile defense.
"Kim Jong-il's Russian Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)
"DPRK Criticism of US" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, ROK)
"Kim Jong-il's Russian Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

 

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3. US Perspective on DPRK

Powell arrived in the ROK on Friday and said that the US was ready for talks with the DPRK any time, anywhere, with no preconditions.
"US-DPRK Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"ROK-US Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said that the US military sees the DPRK and Iraq as the leading military threats to the US in the near future. Selig S. Harrison, director of the Century Foundation's Korea Project, questioned whether the US President George W. Bush administration is exaggerating the DPRK missile capabilities to preserve the rationale for missile defense.
"DPRK Threat to US" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"DPRK Threat to US" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)
"US Policy toward DPRK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

Charles Pritchard, US special envoy for negotiations with the DPRK, told the US House of Representatives International Relations subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific that the DPRK must soon begin working with international inspectors to satisfy concerns about its past nuclear program or construction of two new energy reactors could be halted. An ROK effort to provide the DPRK with electricity aid was put on hold by request of the US because of its own problem in dealing with the DPRK's light-water reactor project.
"Implementation of Agreed Framework" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"ROK-DPRK Electricity Cooperation" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

 

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4. DPRK-UK Relations

British officials said that Great Britain opened an embassy in the DPRK over the weekend, which is temporarily located in the German embassy quarters.
"British Embassy in DPRK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)

 

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5. IAEA Director's DPRK Visit

Olli Heinonen, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Safeguards Department, is likely to visit the DPRK prior to attending September's annual IAEA meeting in Vienna, Austria.
"IAEA Director's DPRK Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, ROK)

 

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6. ROK-US Relations

US President George Bush may make a two-day visit to Seoul before attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in the PRC October 20-21.
"ROK-US Summit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

US Senator Joseph Biden, new chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will visit the ROK with three other members of Congress on August 10. Their visit to the DPRK has been postponed.
"US Senators to Visit ROK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, ROK)
"US Lawmaker's Visit to DPRK" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

 

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7. Germ Warfare In Korean War

The ROK civilian group the Korea Truth Commission said Thursday that it would launch a probe Friday to look into allegations that US troops carried out germ warfare in the ROK during the Korean War.
"Alleged Germ Warfare During Korean War" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, ROK)

 

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8. Inter-Korean Summit

A high-ranking government source said that an indirect promise by Kim Jong-il to visit Seoul before September was unlikely to be kept given developments in June and July.
"Inter-Korean Summit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

 

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9. DPRK Domestic Situation

DPRK experts state that as DPRK leader Kim Jong-il travels to Moscow, signs inside the DPRK point to a purge of key reform-minded officials.
"DPRK Political Situation" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

ROK analysts said Sunday that the DPRK is expected to avoid severe food shortages for the time being thanks to food aid from international organizations like the United Nations, but it is likely to face a food crisis this winter and next year because of the unusually long drought that hit the country in spring.
"DPRK Food Shortage" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, ROK)

A report submitted to the UN Human Rights Committee by the DPRK explains how the DPRK government is complying with its obligations under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. According to the report, "One cannot find unemployment, illiteracy, homelessness, nor such social troubles as collective violence, terrorism, drug abuse or alcoholism" in the DPRK.
"DPRK Human Rights" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

PRC census takers have been going from house to house in the border region with the DPRK asking questions in Chinese as a means of finding DPRK refugees.
"DPRK Refugees in PRC" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

 

 

China

 

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1. PRC Missile Proliferation

The Washington Post reported that the US has formally protested to the PRC its continuing exports of missile-related parts and technology to Pakistan and other countries. For this reason, the Bush administration is expected to continue delaying a decision on US communications satellite exports.
"PRC Missile Proliferation Concerns" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)
"PRC Missile Proliferation" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)
"US Satellite Exports to PRC" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)

 

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2. PRC-US Strategic Interactions

US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said Sunday that PRC pilots have stopped the aggressive pursuit tactics of US surveillance planes off the PRC coast. Foreign ministers from the PRC and the US had their first face-to-face meeting, on July 25 at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Vietnam, since the EP-3 plane incident in April.
"PRC Pursuit of US Jets" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)
"PRC-US Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)

The PRC confirmed Thursday that Wu Jianmin, a PRC-born US writer who was detained in April, has been charged with spying for Taiwan.
"PRC Detention of US Scholar" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

The Washington Times reported that anonymous US intelligence officials said that the PRC military has deployed a new reconnaissance satellite disguised as a civilian earth monitoring system that is being used to target US forces in the region.
"PRC Reconnaissance Satellites" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

 

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3. US-PRC Diplomacy

Diplomats said that PRC officials have recently shown a willingness to talk seriously with the US about subjects like sales of missile technology, human rights and missile defense. US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said that he narrowed differences with the PRC over military exports during meetings with PRC officials. PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said in a subsequent news conference that the PRC has been making an earnest effort to comply with its obligations under a US-PRC nonproliferation agreement signed in November, but contended that the US has failed to comply with its commitments. PRC newspapers said that relations with the US appear to be improving. The government-run People's Daily said Thursday that after an initial "haughty and hard-line stance" by the Bush administration, "the United States has constantly made goodwill expressions."
"US-PRC Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)
"US-PRC Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)

The US State Department protested to the PRC government that the state-run Chinese Central Television network violated an agreement with US Embassy officials when it cut part of an interview taped with Secretary of State Colin L. Powell.
"US-PRC Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)

Chairman of the Cross-Straits Relations Association, Wang Daohan, on July 30 held talks with George Schwab, Chairman of the US Foreign Policy National Committee, and other guests who came to Shanghai to attend the "Sino-US Relations and Taiwan Question" seminar.
"Cross-Straits Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)

 

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4. PRC View of US Foreign Policy

People's Daily carried a forum on US new Government's foreign policies and current China-US relations with essays by four Chinese experts on US-PRC relations.
"PRC View of US Foreign Policy" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)

 

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5. PRC Military Exercises Near Taiwan

The pro-PRC Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Po said that combined PRC Forces will start the largest military exercises ever held off Taiwan soon.
"PRC Military Exercises" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

 

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6. Cross-Straits Exchanges

An estimated 800,000 Taiwanese now live full or part time in the PRC, including as many as 300,000 in Shanghai.
"Cross-Straits Exchanges" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

 

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7. PRC View of US-Australia Relations

The PRC's official People's Daily criticized Australia for colluding with the US to contain the PRC with a proposed new Asia security grouping. Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer played down suggestions that Australia might set up a NATO-style Asia- Pacific security forum with the US, Japan and the ROK. US Secretary of State Colin Powell had told Australian officials, "There is instability in your neck of the woods ...there has been a lot of problems in Asia and the Pacific region. This is a time for vigilance and this is a time for us to remain politically engaged, diplomatically engaged and to keep our military defenses up."
"PRC View of US-Australia Relations" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)
"US-Australian Regional Security Cooperation" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"US-Australia Talks" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)

 

 

Japan

 

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1. Japanese PM's Yasukuni Shrine Visit

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told PRC Ambassador Wu Dawei on Thursday that he was "thinking carefully" about whether to visit Yasukuni Shrine on August 15. Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka's said that she will try to discourage him from going.
"Koizumi's Shrine Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)
"Koizumi's Shrine Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)
"Japanese PM's Yasukuni Shrine Visit" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)

 

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2. ROK-Japan Fishing Dispute

Japan on Friday rejected an ROK demand to reverse a ban on ROK fishing boats from operating in waters off the Sanriku region in northeastern Japan.
"ROK-Japan Fishing Dispute" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, US)

 

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3. Japanese History Textbook

Japanese officials said that, if approved at a board meeting, the New History Textbook would be used by 1,641 handicapped students at 47 Tokyo schools in the academic year beginning April 1, 2002. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara said Friday that critics at home and abroad should stop attacking the textbook.
"Japanese History Textbook" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, US)

 

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4. US Forces in Japan

US Ambassador to Japan Howard Baker during a meeting Monday with Okinawa Governor Keiichi Inamine voiced his opposition to changing the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Inamine argued, "People here want effective and feasible measures to prevent ...incidents and they feel that changing SOFA provisions would help to curb the recurrence."
"US-Japan SOFA" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 2, US)

Okinawa Governor Keiichi Inamine on Friday urged the US and Japan to reduce the size of the US military presence on Okinawa.
"US Troops in Okinawa" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, US)

 

 

South Asia

 

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1. Pakistan-India Summit

Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee reiterated that the Agra summit did not produce a declaration or joint statement because Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf maintained that there must be acknowledgement in writing of the "centrality of the Kashmir issue" before talks could proceed on other issues. Vajpayee stated that any future India-Pakistan dialogue would need to address India's concerns about Pakistani support for terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.
"Statements on Summit" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)

Pakistan government spokesman Riaz M. Khan denied that Pakistan had made settlement of Kashmir a precondition to normalization of relations with India. Khan also stated that the confidence-building measures (CBMs) proposed by Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajapyee have been officially communicated to Pakistan and were being considered.
"Pakistan-India Relations" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)

Commentary on the Agra summit.
Summit Commentary" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's letter formally inviting Indian Prime Minister A.B Vajpayee to visit Pakistan was delivered on July 27. Vajpayee had already accepted the invitation in principle.
"Vajpayee Visit to Pakistan" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)

 

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2. US Sanctions

US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christine Rocca said that the US would "work its way through the sanctions" imposed on India in the wake of the Pokhran nuclear test. While the US is likely to soften sanctions against India, it will be hardest to ease those imposed upon Pakistan because of the coup and failure to return to democracy.
"India-US Relations" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)
"Pakistan-US Relations" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)

 

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3. Sri Lanka

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam staged a suicide attack upon Sri Lanka's international Bandaranaike airport near Latunayake, which succeeded in destroying thirteen aircraft at the airport. Thirteen LTTE and eight security personnel were killed and another twelve people were injured.
"Airport Attack" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)

 

 

Security

 

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1. US Posture Reviews

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld recently revised the US military strategy to reduce the US focus on overseas deployment of US forces and instead is looking to increase budgetary support for missile defense, satellites, counterterrorism and computer warfare.
"US Posture Reviews" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

William Arkin writes in the Washington Post that the ongoing US nuclear posture review appears to envision three phases of US unilateral arms reductions. The process would be accomplished not through formal treaty negotiations but through periodic consultations between the US and Russia.
"US Posture Reviews" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

 

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2. Kursk Submarine

On July 18, the salvage ship Mayo left to begin drilling holes in the hull of the Russian nuclear submarine Kursk as part of the salvage process.
"Kursk Submarine Recovery" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

 

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3. ASEAN

PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan said on July 24 that the three East Asian countries--China, Japan and the ROK--should strengthen cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to deal with challenges brought by globalization.
"PRC View of ASEAN" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)

An editorial in the Asian Wall Street Journal argued that last week's meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) demonstrated that ASEAN has outlived its purpose. The author stated, "Rather than trying to the transform the Asean/ARF system, Asia's democracies should establish a regional political and military alliance committed to strengthening the democracy and security of its members and expanding it in the region."
"ASEAN Regional Forum" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, US)

 

 

Ballistic Missile Defense

 

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1. US Alaskan Test Site

US Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that if the Fort Greely site has no real benefits, then it makes no sense to push up against the ABM Treaty by rushing development of a missile defense test site there.
"US Alaskan Test Site" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

 

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2. Arms Control Regimes

Officials in the Bush administration stated that the US does not intend to amend the 1972 ABM Treaty to permit development of a missile defense system but will instead seek Russian agreement for mutual withdrawal from the accord. Talks over offensive and defensive systems would be "interrelated, not linked," but declined to discuss offensive arms cuts in depth because of the pending review by the US Defense Department.
"US Statements on 1972 ABM Treaty" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

An essay by the Acronym Institute argues that US unilateralism could cause international arms control and security regimes to collapse, with the world degenerating into doomsday scenario where someone launches a first-strike and the US still hasn't developed a working missile defense system. Hugh Gusterson argues that the US has the most to lose and the PRC the most to gain by abandonment of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
"Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

 

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3. US-Russian Talks

Peter Baker writes that finally the US and Russia agreed on the obvious compromise needed to bring Russia to the table on missile defense, namely, the US needed to offer the prospect of deep cuts in the nuclear arsenal that Russia can no longer afford. While Putin is being firm to prevent the appearance of capitulating to the US on missile defense, analysts were quick to point out that Russia needs these agreements.
"Bush-Putin Talks" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice arrived in Russia to help move arms control talks forward with Russia. Rice was to meet Vladimir Rushailo, secretary of the Security Council, followed by meetings with Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russian officials heard nothing new from Rice that would cause them to temper their opposition to jettisoning the 1972 ABM Treaty. Russian Deputy Security Council Secretary Oleg Chernov said, "We are for bringing the maximum number of countries possessing nuclear arms or technologies into the process of discussion of strategic stability issues in the framework of the ABM treaty."
"Rice Visit to Russia" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)
"US-Russian Talks over NMD" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, PRC)

An editorial in the Boston Globe argues that US President George Bush was forced to abandon the notion that the US could proceed unilaterally on arms control and Russian President Vladimir Putin surrendered his defense of the 1972 ABM Treaty in exchange for negotiations to reduce nuclear weapons that Russia can't afford to maintain. An editorial in the Los Angeles Times argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin's acceptance of the idea of talks on offensive and defensive weapons systems may mean that Putin is preparing to argue that a missile defense system would be unnecessary if there were major cuts in strategic weapons. Barry M. Blechman, Assistant Director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency during the Carter Administration, argues in the Los Angeles Times that arms control agreements were the right choice in the past, but now there is an opportunity to restore common sense to strategic planning through nuclear arms cuts and deployment of defenses against missiles.
"Commentary" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)
"Commentary" (NPP Weekly Flash, Vol. 3 #29)

 

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4. International Reactions to BMD

The DPRK's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a commentary on Thursday that it will continue to develop missiles to guard against US military threats.
"DPRK View of US Missile Defense" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 3, US)

About 500 ROK activists marched near the US 8th Army base in Seoul on Saturday to protest the US missile defense plan.
"ROK Protests of Missile Defense" (NAPSNet Daily Report, August 1, US)

Kannan, a Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, writes that India was na´ve to support the US missile defense efforts so quickly, but argues that India needs to exploit this opportunity for stronger relations with the US and seek protection under the US missile defense umbrella.
"Indian Perspective on BMD" (SANDNet Weekly Update, Vol. 2 #31)

 

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The NAPSNet Week in Review aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. We invite you to reply to today's report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network.

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Robert Brown, Security Program Assistant:napsnet@nautilus.org
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Hiroyasu Akutsu: akutsu@glocomnet.or.jp
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin: icipu@glas.apc.org
Moscow, Russian Federation

Chunsi Wu: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen: dlshen@fudan.ac.cn
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

 
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