August 31, 2001
March 20, 2001
Bush Should Listen To A Korean Elder Statesman
1. DPRK-PRC Talks
The PRC and the DPRK announced on August 27 that PRC President Jiang Zemin will
pay an "official goodwill visit" to the DPRK from September 3-5 at the
invitation of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. No agenda details were provided.
Diplomatic sources said, however, that the two leaders are likely to focus on
cementing bilateral ties, their cooperation in countering the US missile defense
plan and issues regarding security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast
Asia. DPRK leader Kim Jong-il will inform his preparations for an ROK visit
during his summit meeting with PRC President Jiang Zemin next week.
2. DPRK Famine and Food Aid
Catherine Bertini, executive director of the UN World Food Program said the
present situation in the DPRK was improving. Asked whether the argument that
all food aid should be stopped because it is enabling DPRK leader Kim Jong Il's
regime and preventing the kind of change that will ultimately be necessary to
fix the DPRK, Bertini said, "People would starve to death because we don't like
the government? That's an immoral position." She noted that there was an
immense difference in terms of the health of the children especially since 1997.
The DPRK's Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Wednesday that UN Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director- General Jacques Diouf met with Kim
Yong-nam, president of the DPRK Supreme People's Assembly, and vice foreign
minister Choe Su-hon on August 27. KCNA gave no details of Diouf's talks.
The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) and Children's Fund (UNICEF) will
conduct a joint nationwide nutrition survey of DPRK children next year.
Catherine Bertini, the head of the WFP, said that she reached an agreement with
senior DPRK officials on the survey plan during her visit to the DPRK August 18-
21. She said the aim of the survey is to assess the health of the children in
the DPRK and to improve their monitoring system of food distribution.
3. Inter-Korean Relations
The Headquarters for the Promotion of the 2001 Joint Events of the Nation for
Implementing the ROK-DPRK Joint Declaration based in the ROK suggested the dates
September 12-14 for holding inter-Korean working level talks. The Headquarters
said an appropriate location will be chosen later.
The DPRK Korea Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation (KCRC) proposed
holding the inter-Korean working-level talks initially agreed upon at the
controversial August 15 joint festival held in Pyongyang. KCRC said in a
statement released on August 28 that it acknowledged the importance of holding
succeeding inter-Korean talks and "the sooner the better."
The DPRK's use of a major tributary of the Han River for hydroelectric power
affects the amount of water available to the ROK. Kim Chang-ho, an ROK engineer
at a hydroelectric plant near Hwachon Dam, said that the DPRK "shut and open
their dam according to their own convenience." According to the ROK Ministry of
Construction and Transportation, the amount of water flowing annually into
Hwachon Dam has dropped by 12 percent to 2.6-billion tons since 1996. However,
the ministry said that the loss has not affected electricity and drinking-water
supplies to areas as far south as Seoul.
4. US-DPRK Relations
Georgi Toloraya, Deputy Director-General of the First Asian Department in the
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on August 28 that in order to see
progress in the stalemate between the DPRK and the US, the US must first
guarantee the safety of the DPRK. Toloraya said in an international seminar on
the DPRK economy, "North Korea wants to hold dialogue with the US in equal
terms. The change the North went through for past few years was more than that
was made for last five decades but it is the U.S. that holds a key to which
direction the North will choose. Chairman Kim wants to improve relations with
the international society including the US"
Experts at a two-day conference on "North Korea in the World Economy" that ended
on August 27 argued that the US should do more to restart talks with the DPRK.
Former US Ambassador to the ROK Donald Gregg said that this was an extraordinary
juncture in Northeast Asia" because of the shared regional concern over
developments in the DPRK. He argued that the US President George W. Bush
administration should separate its DPRK policy from its interest in pursuing a
national missile defense (NMD). He also suggested dropping the term "rogue
state" and ending the practice of lumping the DPRK in with Iraq. Deputy
Director-General of the first Asian department of the Russian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs Georgi Toloraya said that he believed the DPRK had changed more
in the past two years than it had over the past half-century. Toloraya, who
traveled with Kim Jong-il on his recent train journey around Russia, said that
he was convinced Kim wanted dialogue and cooperation as an equal.
The DPRK Central Television News said on August 26 that clearing away the
hostility and opening diplomatic relations not only suit the interest of the
DPRK and the US, but is also needed for establishing the peace and stability of
the world. It said, "If the U.S. acknowledges our sovereign rights and show
goodwill we would start developing relations with Washington under the term of
fairness and reciprocity. If the US is truly seeking for peace and stability of
Korean Peninsula and wish to improve ties with our nation it would first have to
give up its overall scheme to isolate and crush down our nation as well as being
a threat with its troops." It added that the US is causing the situation to
deteriorate with its talk about DPRK missile threats, US-ROK military
cooperation, and branding the DPRK as the main enemy.
5. US Policy toward DPRK
Despite retracting his statements on resumption of US dialogue with the DPRK
during ROK President Kim Dae-jung's visit to Washington, US Secretary of State
olin Powell's position is now the official one of the US government. An unnamed
State Department official stated, "Though he didn't initially prevail, he didn't
give up.... We had an opportunity to voice our views and -- voila, we're at the
point where our opinion is the accepted viewpoint." The article said that US
Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage built momentum for a resumption of
dialogue during a visit to Seoul in early May, and James A. Kelly Assistant
Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, further promoted that
view as head of a Korea policy review committee.
6. Trilateral Coordination Meeting
The Japanese foreign ministry said on August 31 that senior US officials from
Japan, the ROK, and the US will meet September 6 in Tokyo to discuss its policy
toward the Korean peninsula. A visit to Russia by DPRK leader Kim Jong-il
earlier this month will also be among the topics likely to be discussed.
7. US-ROK Military Exercises
Ten thousand US troops are taking part in the annual "Ulchi Focus Lens" joint
exercise with the ROK, which ends August 31. The exercises involve computer
simulation such as moving supplies northward and fighting off a DPRK invasion.
Computer operators at Camp Casey simulate an invasion using a battle plan that
is partly independent from that of the defenders.
8. ROK-Japan Relations
The Kyodo News said that the Japanese government announced August 28 that Japan
and the ROK will conduct a large-scale occupational and cultural exchange
program in Seoul September 10 to help improve bilateral relations. Tadahiro
Matsushita, a senior vice minister in the Cabinet Office, said that about 4,000
private-sector people from the two countries will participate in the exchange
program. ROK President Kim Dae-jung will address the audience during the
9. ROK Fighter Program
ROK defense experts said on August 26 that the ROK government is likely to
further delay its announcement of the winning bidder and model for its next-
generation fighter project. An anonymous expert stated, "Given the tight
schedule for the selection of the successful bidder and model, it seems
inevitable that the Seoul government will postpone the announcement of the
winning bidder for another two months until November." He added, "The military
evaluation team is known to have just completed its final price negotiations
with all the foreign bidders last week and is expected to reach its final
conclusion on the matter around early or mid- September. Based on the
negotiation results, the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) then has to
produce a cost-to-effect analysis report, which is expected to take at least six
weeks. Then the National Security Council will review the result, which will go
to President Kim Dae-jung for final approval around November, at the earliest."
1. PRC Missile Deployment
Singapore Straits Times ("CHINESE SUBS SCORE 3 MISSILE HITS IN WAR GAMES," Hong
Kong, 8/29/01) reported that the PRC scored three successful hits recently with
its submarine-launched Julang-21A missiles fired at targets 5,000 kilometers
away. The missiles were fired simultaneously from PRC submarines as part of the
recent war games centered at Dongshan Island, off Fujian province. According to
the Defence Weekly, navy vessels involved in the exercises also test-fired for
the first time the Hongniao-2 cruise missiles, which can reach 1,000 km in
range. Meanwhile, advanced airborne warning and control system aircraft and
airborne refuelling planes were also deployed during the exercise. The
maneuvers were the largest the PLA has ever conducted in terms of scale,
duration, numbers of personnel and advanced weaponry deployed in recent decades.
[Ed. note: This article appeared in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird
news service for August 31, 2001.]
The PRC has stepped up deployments of short range missiles opposite Taiwan and
now has more than 350 rockets within range of the island. The article quoted
unnamed US intelligence and military officials as saying that new missile
deployments were discovered by US intelligence agencies at Yongan, in Fujian
province, and at Jiangshan. An unnamed senior Defense Department official
stated, "They are on track with adding 50 new missiles a year." US Deputy
Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said that the missile buildup is destabilizing.
A senior White House official said that the PRC military will deploy a total of
around 600 missiles by 2005.
2. Cross-Strait Relations
Reuters ("CHINA FIRM ON CONDITIONS FOR TAIWAN TRADE LINKS," Beijing, 8/29/01)
reported that in response to a proposal by a Taiwan government urging talks on
opening direct commercial ties, the PRC ruled out direct trade links with Taiwan
on August 29 unless the island embraced its "one China" principle. The PRC's
official Xinhua news agency said the "one China" principle was not negotiable.
Raymond Burghardt, Director of the American Institute on Taiwan (AIT), told the
American Chamber of Commerce on August 27 that he backed Taiwan President Chen
Shui-bian's views on the so-called "92 consensus." Burghardt said that before
the 1992 talks began, each side exchanged faxes, which had common language in
some areas and differing views in others. Philip Yang, a political science
professor at National Taiwan University, said that Burghardt's outspokenness was
unusual for an AIT director, and would help Chen resist pressure from the
opposition. Yang added, "It might also help him to get Washington to advise
Beijing to separate economics and politics."
Liao Tsang-lung, a section chief at Taiwan's state-run Chinese Petroleum
Corporation, said on August 27 that Taiwan and the PRC may be close to signing a
contract for joint oil exploration in the Taiwan Strait. Liao said that the
company is expected to finalize a feasibility study on the exploration project
soon and submit it to the Cabinet for approval. Xiao Weidong, a spokesman for
China National Offshore Oil Company, the PRC's third- largest oil producer, also
confirmed that a deal was being discussed. Xiao said that Taiwan was supposed
to pay for the exploration, since the potential reserves of oil and gas were
owned by the PRC.
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian on August 26 accepted the advice of a panel of
economic advisers to boost economic ties with the PRC. The group urged Chen to
relax limits on how much Taiwanese can invest in the PRC, to let Taiwanese banks
set up branches in the PRC, and to ease restrictions on PRC investments in
Taiwan. Chen said that his government would spend the next two weeks figuring
out how to implement the suggestions. Taiwan's top PRC policy-maker, Tsai Ing-
wen, said that the policy was "a significant step forward" toward trying to
improve relations with the PRC.
3. PRC-Japan Relations
PRC ambassador to Japan Wu Dawei said Friday that Japan's relations with the PRC
are at their worst in 30 years. Wu said both sides must create an atmosphere
for fostering better ties, but urged Japan to take the initiative. Japanese
Foreign Ministry spokesman Shinichi Iida said, "Under present circumstances, the
'proper environment', as the Chinese call it, has not been achieved yet."
4. Sino-US Relations
US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in an interview with the
Washington Times that the PRC is "almost certain" to become a superpower this
century and could emerge as a threat to the US. He said that the question is
whether the emerging PRC will live at peace with its neighbors "or will it go
the way of traditional power diplomacy, which I think in this era with these
weapons would be tragic mistake for everybody." Wolfowitz said he did not think
the PRC has to be a threat, but felt the US should also not be complacent.
Regarding Taiwan, Wolfowitz noted that US President George W. Bush and US
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld have been "very clear" that the US will
defend Taiwan from PRC attack and the people of the US are behind this as well.
PRC Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said on August 24 that the bilateral
consultations on nonproliferation between the US and the PRC on August 23 was
beneficial and constructive. Zhu said the counter-proliferation experts from
the US and PRC exchanged views on the issues of counter-proliferation and space
launching cooperation and made necessary declarations on issues of common
concern. The PRC side stressed that the PRC Government has always adopted the
serious and responsible positions on nonproliferation issues, and has strictly
abided by relevant policies. He said, that the PRC Government urged the US to
implement the policy it declared on November of last year and take actions as
soon as possible to facilitate the space-launching cooperation between the US
US and PRC military officials will meet September 13 and 14 on Guam to discuss
ways to avoid maritime incidents. The US delegation to the talks will be led by
Rear Admiral Stephen Smith, chief of operations for the US Pacific Command. US
Defense Department spokesman Navy Lieutenant Commander Jeff Davis said Friday,
"We view this meeting as an important step in working past the EP-3 incident.
It will provide a proper forum for both sides to discuss the important issue of
5. PRC-Russia Relations
The "Namakon" Analytical Center released an article entitled "The Other Side of
the Chinese Card" which claims that there are "hawks" and "doves" in the US.
The hawks (represented for example, by Thomas Graham, recently promoted to a
high position in US State Department) insist on confrontation with the PRC and
turn the RF into a junior ally. The doves (represented for example, by Henry
Kissinger) who urges the US to carry out a "soft" division of the world into
spheres of influence and to actually restore a bipolar world order with the US
and the PRC as its poles. In the authors' opinion, "China today is both a
promising partner and a potential adversary to Russia. China is important for
Russia economically, however Russia should not see the PRC as a market capable
of absorbing products that are non-competitive in Europe and the US. The
authors concluded that the PRC "does not need alliances and by no means will
agree with Moscow's leadership. Most probably Russia will not enjoy super-
favorable conditions in the Russia-China-US triangle. China will play on US-RF
1. Japanese Prime Minister's Tour of Asia
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is planning a four- nation tour of
Southeast Asia in September in an effort to repair relations strained by his
visit to a Japanese war shrine. Another initiative by Koizumi to meet leaders
of the PRC and the ROK, ahead of a larger Pacific nations summit in October,
received a cool response. ROK Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo told the
Parliament that Japan must agree to reiterate a 1998 apology for its wartime
behavior before Koizumi could meet ROK President Kim Dae-jung.
2. Japanese Rocket Launch
Japan successfully launched its first H2- A rocket on Wednesday. The National
Space Development Agency launched the rocket three hours later than scheduled
because of a malfunction in a device designed to indicate whether a pipe to the
rocket's fuel tank was connected properly. The rocket is designed to carry a 4-
ton satellite, but during the test only carried a 3-ton sphere and equipment to
monitor and record the rocket's flight systems. Japanese space officials said
that it rivals rockets built in Europe and the US, and are working on a special
rocket booster that would allow the H2-A to carry a 7.5-ton payload into orbit
within two years.
3. ROK, PRC Relations with Japan
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's spokesman Tsutomu Himeno said on
August 27 that Koizumi hopes to meet with ROK and PRC leaders to ease anger over
his visit earlier this month to the Yakusuni Shrine. However, foreign and
Japanese diplomats said that the leaders of the PRC and the ROK have turned down
requests for meetings with Koizumi. An unnamed top Japanese Foreign Ministry
official stated, "My sense is that this is really a very, very bad situation.
Usually your diplomats will scramble to try to find some way to get things back
on track. This time they're at a loss."
1. India Security Policies
Ambassador Dev Mukherji, speaking in Nepal, said India will help Nepal monitor
Maoist insurgents, while Nepal will not be a base for Pakistan's "terrorist"
activities. Meanwhile, Palestine President Yasser Arafat met with Indian Prime
Minister A B Vajpayee in New Delhi and reportedly sought India's support for
resumption of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.
2. Pakistan-India Relations
An editorial in The Organizer discusses the positive international reaction
India has received following the Vajpayee government's "fresh peace initiative"
in inviting Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf for talks. "Editorial:
3. India Arms Acquisitions
India reportedly has carried out a successful test of the first indigenously
upgraded MiG-21-93 fighter aircraft. The News reported that Indian MPs have
urged Prime Minister Vajpayee not to allow further delay of plans to buy
military jet trainers.
4. India-Pakistan Relations
Pakistan reportedly has conveyed President Pervez Musharraf's desire to meet
with Indian Prime Minister A B Vajpayee on the sidelines of the UN General
Assembly session in New York next month. Meanwhile, Pakistan Commerce Minister
Abdul Razzak Dawood reportedly stated that trade between India and Pakistan is
unlikely to grow significantly until political relations improve.
5. US-Pakistan Relations
The Dawn quoted Peter Rodman, US assistant secretary of defense for
international affairs, as stating that the United States will not "lose sight"
of its "valuable" relationship with Pakistan. "Pakistan has been an ally over
many decades," Rodman stated, adding that "India is not going to become an ally
of the United States." Shireen M Mazari, Director General of the Institute of
Strategic Studies in Islamabad, writes that the emerging "US-Israel-India
relationship" challenges prospects for US-Pakistan relations. US goals, Mazari
writes, are to circumscribe Pakistan's nuclear capability and to "discredit
Pakistan internationally so as to make it easier for the US to get its new ally
India accepted as a major global power."
6. Kashmir Diplomacy
US Senator Robert G. Torricelli, a ranking member of US Senate's Foreign
Relations Committee, has stated that India should accept "international
assistance in resolving the Kashmir problem." United Nations Secretary General
Kofi Annan reportedly would prefer to see the Kashmir problem solved through
bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan. The Azad Jammu & Kashmir Council,
presided over by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, rejected Indian efforts to
initiate a "political process" in Kashmir. " The All Parties Hurriyat
Conference said it will seek to involve itself in negotiations over Kashmir if
Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and Pakistan President Musharraf meet and make
progress in New York.
1. Global Military Spending
Jayantha Dhanapala, UN Under-Secretary General for disarmament, said in a speech
in Sydney, Australia, that global weapons purchases are rising again. According
to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, global military
spending last year reached US$800 billion. He said the biggest increases in
spending were by developing nations and "Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia are two
major sub regions of concern." He also noted that the US alone was responsible
for half of last year's arms trades.
2. US Military Deployments in Asia
US Army Secretary Thomas E. White, Junior, said on August 30 that although no final decisions have been made, US troops might be redeployed from Europe to Asia to serve as a hedge against potential conflicts there, and weapons and combat equipment have already been shifted. Officials said military equipment have already been moved from several European sites, including in Germany and Italy, to depots in Asia that have been short of some weapons and gear, but the amount shifted was not disclosed. Derek Mitchell, an Asia specialist at the US Defense Department during the Clinton administration, said that, while US allies in the region rely on US military support, they would be made uneasy by any sign of a sizable US military buildup. White acknowledged that any repositioning of US forces would be a sensitive issue abroad and said the US would try hard to ease allies' doubts. He said that if the US Bush administration does adopt a strategy more focused on Asia, "we'll have to very deliberately engage NATO, obviously, and our alliance partners, both [in Europe] and in the Pacific." White said he will not recommend moving any of the four brigades of combat troops - which number about 20,000 - now stationed in Europe to the Asian theater.
Officials and analysts in Hawaii, Guam and Taiwan said Friday that the US Army
plan to move some combat weaponry and equipment from Europe to the Asia-Pacific
region was welcomed. Japan and the ROK did not immediately react. Park Seon-
sup, a researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analysis in the
ROK, said the US shift in its global military strategy has been expected since
the danger of a war in Europe has diminished, but a large-scale deployment of
more US military equipment in the ROK could set back inter-Korean relations.
Yang Chih-heng, a military expert with the private Taiwan Research Institute,
said Taiwan would welcome any US move that would place the island under its
shield of protection.
Ballistic Missile Defense
1. UN Views on US Missile Defense
UN Under-Secretary General Jayantha Dhanapala said on August 30 that the United
Nations urged US President George W. Bush to keep his plans for a missile shield
down on earth and to preserve outer space for peace. Dhanapala said a
commission chartered by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had endorsed a
view that the US should seek total domination of space, indicating that could be
a future direction of US policy. Dhanapala also expressed more general
reservations about Bush's missile defense plans and his intention to withdraw
from the ABM treaty. While UN member states had the freedom to decide on their
own security arrangements, he said any abrogation of the treaty or multilateral
push to build a missile shield could carry an "enormous cost." He said the PRC
has made it clear to him that that process would be accelerated its military
modernization if the US went ahead. He also said he had taken note of a
suggestion by Bush that the US would be willing to unilaterally slash its
nuclear warheads as part of a missile shield plan, however, Dhanapala said the
UN preferred multilateral treaties to unilateral promises for the simple reason
that they were irreversible, and could be verified and legally enforced.
The NAPSNet Week in Review aims to serve as a forum for dialogue and exchange among peace and security specialists. We invite you to reply to today's report, and we welcome commentary or papers for distribution to the network.
Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
Robert Brown, Security Program Assistant:firstname.lastname@example.org
Gee Gee Wong, Security Program Assistant: email@example.com
Hans Kristensen, Security Program Officer: firstname.lastname@example.org
Timothy L. Savage, Security Program Officer: email@example.com
Kim Hee-sun: firstname.lastname@example.org
Hiroyasu Akutsu: email@example.com
Peter Razvin: firstname.lastname@example.org
Chunsi Wu: email@example.com
Dingli Shen: firstname.lastname@example.org