TMD And East Asian Security
by CHU Shulong
The theater missile defense (TMD) that the US and Japan are jointly
developing has become the issue with the most significant negative impact
on security in the Asia-Pacific region. It has caused serious problems
between major power relations in East Asia, such as those between the US,
Japan, Russia, and China. The major powers take missile defense as
a serious strategic issue and worry that such a system will destroy the
current strategic balance between major powers in the region. Russia and
China also argue that TMD would change the military balance in the region
and give the US and Japan a new superiority. TMD deployment could
also cause a new round of offensive and defensive arms race in Asia.
It has become a controversial issue in bilateral security talks among those
major powers and a hot issue in the multilateral arenas such as the United
Nations and ARF. It has also become an obstacle for further arms
control and disarmament agreements as well as bilateral and multilateral
security cooperation.
To be sure, the TMD system that the United States and Japan are going
to build in East Asia has and will continue to have different impacts on
different nations in the region. The system could not have great
impact on the security policies and structures in Southeast Asia, but it
will have a significant impact on Northeast Asia and on major powers and
their relations in the region. The military and strategic balance
could be reshaped in East Asia because of the development of missile defense
in the region.
I. TMD, Major Power Relations and Strategic Balance in East Asia
TMD is a major issue to all the major powers in East Asia (the United
States, Japan, Russia, China). The major powers have taken serious
positions toward theater missile defense even though the system is still
in the process of development.
TMD has caused some restructuring of major power relations in East Asia.
Relations between the US and Japan have become closer in the post-Cold
War era, first by "the guideline of security cooperation," and now by the
joint development of TMD. After a period of indecisiveness, the Japanese
government decided to join the United States in developing a theater missile
defense system in 1998, and have allocated money for the program every
year. Japan is one of the few countries in the world to support the
US missile defense program. Other US allies such as France, Italy,
Germany, and the Republic of Korea, all oppose the development of a missile
defense system.
Russia and China have found a common language on the regional strategic
issue of missile defense - the first time since the end of the Cold War,
if not since the 1960s. The former allies have once again come closer
on strategic-security issues in Asia and the world. Russia and China
issued a joint Press Communiqué on the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
(ABM) in December 1999. And on July 18, 2000, during the Sino-Russian
summit in Beijing before the G-8 meeting in Okinawa, Chinese President
Jiang Zemin and visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a joint
statement on the anti-ballistic missile plan. The Statement said:
"A non-strategic missile defense program and international cooperation
in such areas, which is not prohibited by ABM, should not undermine security
interests of other countries, nor lead to the establishment of any closed
military or political bloc, or threaten global and regional stability and
security. China and Russia are deeply concerned that a certain country
in the Asia-Pacific region might deploy any such non-strategic missile
defense system, and steadfastly oppose this." (1)
Some of the other nations in Asia have joined Russia and China in opposing
the NMD and TMD systems. In July 2000, the foreign ministers of the
"Shanghai Five" - Russia, China, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan
- issued a joint communiqué in Dushanbe calling for strict compliance
with the Anti- Ballistic Missile treaty. The parties indicated that
the establishment of a bloc and confining missile defense system would
destroy the peace and stability in the Asian Pacific region.(2)
Therefore, TMD could cause a restructuring of the regional strategic
system in East Asia. The US and Japan could strengthen their alliance by
jointly developing the system. Russia and China could go further
in their "strategic coordination" by basing it on their common position
against the US missile defense system. Major powers in East Asia
could regroup themselves according to their views on TMD, with US-Japan
on one side and Russia-China on the other. The specific outcome could
be that Russia and China will go further in their policy and weaponry cooperation,
including conventional arms and missiles. The US-Japan security alliance
will expand into a strategic offensive and defensive structure and Japan
will not only have an American "nuclear umbrella" but also a "missile
umbrella." The joint development and future deployment
of TMD could also require Japan to change its law and policy, such as the
law against exporting military technology.
In sum, TMD in Asia will deepen the divisions between Russia and China
on one side and the US and Japan on the other. It will also greatly
influence the countries' security policies, strategic doctrines, military
postures, and military capabilities.
II. TMD and Regional Military Balance
The development and future deployment of a missile defense system in
Asia will enhance American and Japanese military superiority over Russia
and China.
First, it will increase American strategic superiority over Russia and
China in the Asia-Pacific region. Strategic forces in Asia refers
to nuclear weapons and delivery systems which are capable of reaching the
Asia-Pacific region. Currently, US and Russia have similar strategic
offensive weapons which can hit areas in Asia. Russia may still enjoy
quantitative superiority because Russia has more nuclear warheads, but
much of Russia's strategic delivery systems - such as nuclear submarines,
surface ships, aircraft, and even missiles - cannot fulfill their functions
(as indicated by the recent Kursk accident). Therefore, the United
States already has more effective strategic weapons against Asia than Russia
at this time.
In terms of quality, American superiority is much more absolute.
Besides nuclear warheads, long range missiles, strategic aircraft, and
nuclear submarines, the US has more and better conventional weapons which
are able to fulfill strategic missions in Asia than Russia. The weapons
which can carry a strategic strike over any target in East Asia are B-117,
B-2, F-16, and F-15. Everyday, America seems to have more and better
strategic weapons in the Asia- Pacific region than any other power.
Missile defense will enhance this real American superiority in Asia
over Russia and China because America will not only enjoy offensive superiority
but also a defensive one. America will not only have more and better
offensive weapons which can hit Russia and China, but also the capability
to knock down a certain number of incoming Russian or Chinese missiles.
This will, in turn, reduce the number and capability of Russian and Chinese
strategic forces which would have the same effect as increasing the quantity
and capability of American strategic offensive forces.
Japan is now and has in the past been at a disadvantage when faced with
Russia's strategic and conventional forces and China's strategic forces.
However, missile defense of Japan can change the picture of military balance
between Japan and other major powers in Asia. When Japan obtains
missile defense capability, Japan will have some strategic capacity to
counter Russian and Chinese strategic forces. At the same time, Japan
will continue to enjoy some conventional military superiority, at least
over Chinese military forces. Japan can already send more and better
naval ships or combat aircraft to anywhere in East Asia than the Chinese
can. A US-Japan missile defense will only further reduce China's
strategic and missile capabilities.
In sum, missile defense will enhance the de facto American superiority
in offensive strategic forces and allow them to gain a defensive superiority
over Russia and China. At that point, America will enjoy a comprehensive
strategic superiority. Japan will increase its military capability
and TMD will cause instability to the military balance in the Asia-Pacific
region.
III. TMD and Possible New Arms Race in East Asia
To be certain, if the countries involved or affected by TMD do not make
an agreement on missile defense, a new round of arms race will begin in
Asia.
Arms race in offense
The quickest and easiest way to counter the missile defense system is
to increase the offensive capability. Russia may not be able to increase
its offensive power in the near future because of its economic situations,
but if the Russian economy recovers and gets back on track (many Russian
experts believe this will happen by the time 2010), then the country would
be able to do something to counter American missile defense system.
Russians are now debating how to use their limited military resource.
One school emphasizes the strategic forces while the other stresses conventional
forces. If the first school's idea gets support from President Putin,
Russia will do something to counter a missile defense even before its economic
situation gets better.
China is and will continue to be in a much better position to deal with
US-Japan missile defense due to its booming economy. Now and for
the next few decades this century, the rise of China's economic power will
make the country capable of spending more resources to build up its strategic
forces. However, the number of Chinese long range missiles which
can hit the US may not increase dramatically due to the costliness.
However, China is capable of doubling its present 20 or so long range strategic
missiles within a decade. As for short and medium range missiles,
which can reach Japan and US forces in East Asia and the western Pacific,
China can increase those numbers dramatically and quickly.
Arms race in defense
When Russia and China conclude that they cannot persuade the Americans
and Japanese not to develop and deploy TMD systems, Russia and China will
then develop their own missile defense system in order to keep or reach
strategic balance in both the offensive and defense terms. Their
missile defense system may not be as good as America's due to the technological
gap between them, but, given that the Soviets and Chinese have narrowed
their gap with Americans in offensive forces in the 1960s and 1970s, one
should be confident that others are also technologically capable of developing
and deploying some sort of missile defense system.
The joint development of a missile defense system could be dangerous.
Japan could end up with a joint TMD system with the United States, or may
have its own missile defense capability. Because of the technological
development, Japan could not only have a missile defense system, it could
also have a missile offensive capability. Japan has been developing
its satellite and rocket systems for years. After it gains a missile
defensive capability, the country could find itself desiring a strategic
offensive force as well.
Arms race between conventional forces of US, Japan, Russia and China
Because missile defense creates tension and suspicion between major
militaries, they will do whatever they can do in strengthening all areas
of their military forces. In order to keep military balance during a time
of deteriorating strategic balance, the Chinese, and possibly others, will
try to increase their conventional forces to keep the overall military
balance. There will be more and better aircraft, naval ships, and submarines
in East Asia in the 21st century.
Arms race between two Koreas
The welcomed summit and improvement in inter-Korean relations between
the two Koreas so far have not changed the picture of the military arena.
The United States and South Korea still maintain an alert attitude and
military posture ready for a worst case scenario. North Korea has
not changed its position in developing necessary forces and weaponry to
defend itself. The American and Japanese deployment of a missile
defense system in Asia will encourage North Korea to do something to counter
such kind of forces. Missile defense may complicate the missile talks between
North Korea and the United States, and the non-nuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula.
Arms race across Taiwan Strait
The stated purpose for developing and deploying missile defense in Asia
by the US and Japan is to counter "the Chinese missile build up" across
the Taiwan Strait. Missile superiority is the only area that Mainland
China has to deter Taiwan's independence tendency, but a US-Japan missile
defense system will neutralize such a Chinese capability. Mainland
China would, therefore, have to increase the number of missiles targeted
at Taiwan in order to maintain the same deterrence. The outcome would be
much more missile defense weapons and missiles across the Taiwan Strait.
Arms race in Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia is not directly involved in or affected by the US-Japan
missile defense system. However, when there is a missile defense
force and a greater deployment of missiles in East Asia and the West Pacific,
Southeast Asians will find themselves threatened by those systems and missiles.
Therefore, they may feel compelled to do something militarily to counter
the new developments in the region. The outcome will be more arms
in Southeast Asia as well.
IV. TMD and Regional Security Cooperation
TMD has already become a serous issue in East Asia. It has become a
controversial issue and even an obstacle in both bilateral and multilateral
security relations in the region.
TMD and bilateral security cooperation
Over the past years, TMD has become a controversial issue in security
talks between the United States, Russia, China, Japan, and other countries
such as Australia. The issue has been raised and discussed in almost every
bilateral talk on political security between those governments and militaries.
The years of recent security dialogue and consultation between those countries
have made little progress on the issue. Each time Russia and
China have gotten together to talk, they have found more and more in common
to oppose the system. Meanwhile, talks between China and the US and
China and Japan have gotten nowhere in their disputes about TMD.
TMD has not only become a controversial issue in bilateral relations
between major powers in Asia, it has also become a major obstacle for further
security cooperation among them. Because of their differences on missile
defense, the US and Russia cannot make progress on further cuts to their
strategic forces. US and China cannot move forward in their arms
control, disarmament and non- proliferation talks. Sino-US talks
regarding the MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) are actually dead
because of the differences on related missile defense issue. Many
ideas and possibilities for greater security cooperation between China,
US, and Japan are made impossible under the shadow of TMD. Security
dialogue agendas and cooperation are instead occupied by controversial
discussions on the singular issue of TMD.
Multilateral security cooperation
Missile defense is also a controversial issue in the context of multilateral
security cooperation. Russia and China have spent a lot of energy
getting the UN resolution on ABM passed last October. TMD has also
been a hot topic in the recent ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) meetings.
Without compromise on TMD, some countries find it impossible to move ahead
with security cooperation. When TMD is really deployed, it will become
an even more serious issue in bilateral and multilateral security dialogues.
Missile defense causes a new difficulty and becomes a shadow for further
security dialogue and cooperation in the Asia- Pacific region.
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1. Joint Statement on ABM, China Daily, July 19, 2000, p.4.
2. Hu Qihua, "FMs meet, highlight regional security," China Daily,
July 5, 2000, p.2. |