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February 23, 2000

Pakistan

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Pakistan

 

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1. CTBT

John Holum, a senior U.S. advisor regarding nuclear proliferation, noted that it will be difficult to persuade India and Pakistan to sign the CTBT after the U.S. Senate failed to ratify the treaty. He also acknowledged that the treaty contains a clause that would enable the U.S. (or any other country) to withdraw from the treaty in "supreme national interest," if it chose to do so.
"Persuading India, Pak. to sign CTBT 'not easy'"

In separate statements, the French ambassador to Pakistan and the Consul General of Japan urged Pakistan to sign the CTBT.
"French envoy calls for signing CTBT"
"Japan urges Pakistan, India to sign CTBT"

Analysis: Dawn (Lahore) reprinted a Los Angeles Times op ed by Henry Kissinger. Kissinger argues that the "real and growing" danger of nuclear attack on the U.S. demands implementation of a U.S. missile defense system. Tanvir Ahmad Khan highlights shortcomings in Pakistan's nuclear command and control system and urges the international community to provide the financial assistance required to make the system more transparent. Aseff Ahmed Ali, a former Foreign Minister, argues that Pakistan's national interest, as well as safeguards within the treaty, provide a strong rationale for Pakistan to sign the CTBT.
"US decision on missile defence" Henry Kissinger
"A command and control system" Tanvir Ahmad Khan
"CTBT: wisdom lies in signing" Sardar Aseff Ahmed Ali

 

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2. Domestic Politics

Abdullah Muntazir, leader of Lashkar-e Toiba, a militant group based in Jammu & Kashmir, said that deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had put increasing pressure on his group and others to cease militant operations. After Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf took control of Pakistan, according to Muntazir, this pressure was reduced.
"Sharif's last days were tough for us: Militants"

Amnesty International reports that at least 50 persons were killed in custody, 120 were executed extrajudicially, and 428 people were sentenced to death. The report also alleges gender, religious, and political motives for violence, torture, and rape in Pakistan.
"Torture widespread in Pak: Amnesty"

 

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3. Pakistan-US Relations
On February 17, U.S. Secretary of State said that the U.S. would like to "see some progress . . . on democracy and terrorism." A New York Times allegation of links between Islamic charitable organizations and militant activities was widely reported in the Pakistani press. Pakistan sent cabinet minister Omar Asghar Khan to Washington to "neutralize U.S. worries about training of terrorist groups in Pakistan's neighborhood" and banned the public display of firearms (a common rallying method) for all non-security personnel.
"US wants Pakistan action on terrorism"
"'Terrorist links': US, Canada probe into relief groups, says report"
"Pak sends minister to U.S. with assurances on terror camps"
"Pak. bans public display of arms"

On February 18, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson David Leavy told reporters that a decision regarding a Clinton visit to Pakistan had not been reached and that "no preconditions" had been set for such a visit.
"No terms for Pakistan visit: US"

Analysis: Lt Gen (retired) Asad Durrani argues in an op ed (The News) that Pakistan should not compromise either its principles or its security interests in exchange for a Clinton visit. Aziz Siddiqui argues (Dawn) that Clinton should consider direct involvement in the resolution of regional and global security issues to be more important than bypassing Pakistan--as a part of an inconsistent U.S. policy of sometimes promoting democracy worldwide. K. Subrahmanyam argues in The Hindu (Madras) that the U.S. does not have a record of taking other countries' interests into consideration when planning its own policies. Therefore, one could infer from a Clinton decision to visit Islamabad "that the U.S. is being blackmailed directly by Pakistan vis-à-vis its own [U.S.] national security interests--a threat serious enough for Clinton to talk of a stop-over."
"Let him come in peace" Lt Gen (R) Asad Durrani
"Whether or not Clinton calls" Aziz Siddiqui
"Courting Humiliation: US Bowing to Pakistan's Dictates" K Subrahmanyam

 

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4. Pakistan-China Relations

Zhang Jiuhuan, the Director General of the Asian Department, Chinese Foreign Ministry, held bilateral consultations with senior Pakistan foreign officials in Islamabad on February 19. Topics ranged from defense and economic relations to culture and diplomatic interactions. Jiuhuan "appreciated" Pakistan's efforts to bring peace and stability to South Asia. Aslam Khan (in The News), citing Chinese and Western "diplomatic sources," reports that China is putting considerable pressure on the Pakistan government to rein in terrorist activity emanating from Afghanistan.
"China lauds Pakistan peace move"
"Angry China forces Pakistan to rein in Taliban"

 

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5. Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations

A notice advertising that the U.S. would reward credible information regarding the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden has been stamped on 100- rupee currency notes and matchbooks and distributed in Peshawar. Both Pakistan and the U.S. deny involvement. An article in the Sunday Telegraph (London, quoted in the Times of India) reports that bin Laden has become a cult figure in northern Pakistan. Amit Baruah of The Hindu (Madras) reports on "a symbiotic relationship [that] exists between the Taliban and the Pakistani state."
"Matchbox campaign to snare Osama"
"Probe into Osama publicity notes"
"Osama a cult figure in Pakistan"
"Pak.'s Afghan connection"

 

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6. Foreign Relations: Iraq, Japan

Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz visited Islamabad on February 15- 16 and proposed improved ties with Pakistan "in all fields." A Pakistan spokesperson said that Aziz also "urged joint work among Islamic states and third world countries to protect their independence and sovereignty and to confront American attempts to interfere in their internal affairs."
"Iraq, Pakistan to boost ties"

Japan's Deputy foreign Minister, Ryozo Kato, met with Pakistan Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed in Islamabad on February 16. According to the official statement, the two sides "exchanged views" on normalization of Pakistan-Japan economic and political relations.
"Pakistan, Japan discuss Kashmir, Afghan issues"

 

 

India

 

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7. CTBT

John Holum, a senior advisor to U.S. President Bill Clinton, acknowledged that it is "unlikely" that India will sign the CTBT during the Clinton visit to India. U.S. State Department spokesperson James Rubin said that the U.S. seeks a "working relationship" with India but that differences regarding nonproliferation remain a "major problem."
"'India may not sign CTBT during Clinton visit'"
"Non- proliferation biggest irritant in Indo-US ties: Rubin"

French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine said that France is prepared to consider expanded civilian nuclear energy cooperation if India signs the CTBT.
"'Signing CTBT will help' Vedrine"

On the Indian side, staunch opposition to the CTBT by Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) is reported to be a constraint on the Indian government.
"RSS decision may not allow Govt. to sign CTBT"

 

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8. Military Hardware

Defense Minister George Fernandes seeks to raise defense spending by 30 percent, from 2.3 percent to 3 percent of GNP. India has allocated US$200 million to launch the SSK-Class submarine project, which has been stalled since 1992. SSK submarines would be 66 meters long, carry a crew of up to 40, and enter service in 2004.
"India to raise defence spending"
"India expedites submarine programme"

 

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9. India-US Relations

In response to Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee's request that President Bill Clinton bypass Pakistan during his South Asia trip, a White House spokesperson urged that the State Visit to New Delhi be "viewed on its own merit" regardless of whatever other stops the President might take. U.S. State Department spokesperson James Rubin suggested that Secretary of State Madeleine Albright might be a part of the presidential delegation to South Asia.
"Clinton's India trip must be viewed on its own merit: US"
"Albright may join Clinton on India tour"

Analysis: Kanwaldeep Singh argues that, although a joint council of Indian and U.S. companies has prepared a 50-point agenda, economic consultations are not likely to address the contentious environmental and labor issues that dominated last month's World Trade Organization meeting in Seattle.
"India Inc. yet to warm up to Clinton's visit" Kanwaldeep Singh

Indian Air Force fighter pilot Satnam Shah reportedly has confessed to being a CIA agent. He is alleged to have sold sensitive defense information to the U.S.
"Police claim Shah admitted to working for CIA"

 

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10. Foreign Relations: France, Canada

French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine visited New Delhi for two days as a participant in the high-profile Indo-French Forum. During the visit, he acknowledged India's position as "one of the six or seven major powers in a multipolar world," and proposed expanded civilian nuclear cooperation following an Indian signature on the CTBT. Vedrine also supported a permanent seat for India on the United Nations security council, and urged multipolar cooperation--including cooperation with Pakistan--in order to challenge U.S. dominance. In an interview with Le Figaro (Paris), Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee supported an Indo- French strategic dialogue, but insisted that for such a dialogue to occur, "your country has to make a strategic choice between the great democratic power, India, and Pakistan, a small country under military dictatorship."
"India, France explore n-cooperation"
"France backs Indian membership of Security Council"
"Vedrine, Jaswant want to break US dominance"
"France should choose between India, Pakistan: PM"

The Indo-Canada working group on counter-terrorism completed its third meeting on February 16. India has established many such working groups as it seeks to forward a proposal to the United Nations for a comprehensive convention on international terrorism in September.
"India , Canada meet on terrorism ends"

 

 

Kashmir

 

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11. Military Activities

India announced plans to construct a fence along a 240-km stretch of the Line of Control (LoC). Pakistani military spokesperson Major General Rashid Qureshi denied Indian reports that Pakistan increased the strength of the Pakistan army in the border areas. Two days later Indian Chief of Army Staff V. P. Malik "confirmed" a "floating movement" of Pakistani troops along the LoC. The Nation (Islamabad) reported on Feb 21 that India plans to send two more battalions toward the LoC.
"India revives Line of Control fencing scheme"
"No build-up along border, says Pakistan"
"Malik confirms Pak movement along LoC"
"India to send two more battalions to H. Kashmir"

 

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12. Pakistan-India Dialogue

Pakistani Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf again stressed the need for a "Kashmir-centered dialogue that would lead to an equitable solution", and Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee insisted that "the only agenda for talks on Kashmir with Pakistan will be the return of Pakistan- occupied Kashmir."
"Chief Executive for just solution of Kashmir issue"
"Vajpayee again asks Pakistan to 'vacate' Kashmir"

 

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13. International Dialogue

On February 16, President Bill Clinton again offered to mediate the Kashmir issue; French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine supported Clinton's offer. In response, Pakistan reiterated its ongoing support for mediation, while India reiterated its ongoing support for intraregional dispute resolution. Subsequently, Clinton clarified on February 17 that the U.S. would mediate only if asked to do so by both India and Pakistan. A White House spokesperson further clarified that Clinton had simply re-stated a long-standing U.S. policy regarding Kashmir. On the following day, Clinton explicitly rejected the idea of a U.S. "special envoy" for Kashmir.
"US willing for mediation on Kashmir if asked: Clinton"
"France backs US mediating role"
"Clinton's mediation offer welcomed in Pakistan, cold-shouldered by India"
"No US mediation in Kashmir unless asked by both parties: Clinton"
"Clinton restated long-standing Kashmir policy: White House"
"Clinton rules out 'special envoy' for Kashmir"

 

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14. Pakistan, Domestic Pressures

The Times of India reports that Muslim Conference leader Sardar Abdul Qayyum, in an interview to The Nation, criticized as "suicidal" Chief Executive Musharraf's idea of a conventional war in Kashmir. [The Nation does not maintain an internet archive].
"Musharraf aides split over Kashmir policy"

 

 

Sri Lanka

 

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15. Norwegian Mediation

Norwegian Foreign Minister Knut Vollebaek arrived in Colombo on February 16 to begin the process of mediating a dialogue between the Sri Lanka government, the opposition United National Party (UNP), and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Vollebaek proposed that most of the discussions take place in Oslo, Norway. All sides expressed a readiness to engage in peace talks, which are expected to continue for one year, but the LTTE announced that it would call for withdrawal of all government troops from the north and east prior to engaging in the Oslo process.
"Norwegian minister bids for Lanka peace"
"Time-frame for Govt-LTTE talks"
"Chandrika invites UNP for talks"
"Preliminary talks with LTTE in Oslo"
"Tigers want troop withdrawal"

 

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
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David Stuligross, SANDNet Coordinator: SANDNet@nautilus.org
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Berkeley, California, United States

 

 
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