Nuclear Issues

1. Pakistan's Nuclear Policy
2. Japanese Sanctions
3. US National Missile Defense

Nuclear Issues

Pakistan Deputy Foreign Minister Inam ul Haque told German media that Pakistan would consider first use of nuclear weapons if they were attacked by conventional forces. He said, "There is no way Pakistan can hold out any assurance that it will not use any nuclear weapons if its existence is threatened. There is no assurance on the part of India either." He also pointed out that NATO maintained a first-use threat against the USSR during the Cold War because of the threat of an overwhelming conventional ground force. An Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said, "Pakistan does not subscribe to the policy of 'no first-use' which India does." Indian spokesman said there is nothing new about Pakistan's policy.
"Pak says it may use nukes first if attacked"
"Pak. will use nuclear weapons 'if attacked'"
"Pakistan reserves Nuclear option if attacked: Germans briefed on strategic issues"
"India shrugs off Pak nuke warning"

The Pakistan Ministry of Commerce announced that prospective exporters of nuclear materials would require a "no objection certificate" from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission.
"Government regulates export of nuclear materials"

Yutaka Iimura, head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's economic cooperation bureau, told the ruling Liberal Democratic Party that India's signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty remains a condition for resuming development assistant to India and Pakistan.
"Japan to lift sanctions after CTBT signing"

A Dawn editorial by Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa-Agha argued that until the US-proposed National Missile Defense (NMD) system came to be an issue, there was at least an inclination by India and Pakistan to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. India would be forced to resume testing should it choose to develop a sea-based nuclear force that could counter the PRC. Neither India not Pakistan can afford the comprehensive command-and-control systems necessary for an expanded nuclear program.
"Another deadly missile race?"

India

National Security Advisory Board leader K Subrahmanyam spoke at the Center for Advanced Strategic Studies and said that India should aim for self-reliance in defense hardware procurement by obtaining needed materiel through imports from outside the country.
"India lacks long-term threat assessment perspective: Expert"

The Indian Navy commissioned a Russian-made kilo-class submarine armed with Russian Klub anti-ship missiles and the latest sonar technology.
"Navy acquires Russian missile submarine"

US Congressmen urged President Clinton to remove all sanctions against India prior to the September visit of Indian Prime Minister AB Vajpayee. Representative Benjamin Gilman, Chairman of the House International Relations Committee, said that the US should draw closer to India because of "China's attempt at hegemony, spread of Islamic terrorism spilling out of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the dictatorship in Myanmar." Representative Gary Ackerman said that continuing the sanctions is a short-sighted policy.
"US Congressmen want India curbs to go, closer ties"
"Lift sanctions against India, Clinton urged"

Ambassadors and representatives of eighteen Arab state missions were briefed by KV Rajan, a secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, to explain that growing ties with Israel will not be at the expense of long-standing ties with the Islamic world. There was especially concerned about nuclear cooperation.
"Arab envoys to meet Indian official"
"Arab envoys mollified, yet suspicion lingers"

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mohsen Aminzadeh said that while there must be consensus within the organization, Iran would support India's entrance into the Organisation of Islamic Conference
"Iran to view favourably India's entry into OIC"

PRC Assistant Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, "China-Pakistan relations are not targeted at any third country. Likewise, we do not hope to see China-Pakistan relations affected by a third country." He also denied that the PRC aided Pakistan's weapons program and said, "We are a responsible country. As a neighbor of South Asia, we don't want to see large-scale nuclear and missile proliferation in the region." PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan arrived on Friday to meet with Prime Minister AB Vajpayee and Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh.
"'India's fears over Sino-Pak nexus unfounded'"
"Chinese foreign minister arrives in India"

While no progress was made on India-PRC relations in topics such as the border dispute or PRC aid to Pakistan, the PRC did not raise India's nuclear program or the UN Security Council Resolution against India, which the PRC supports. Maps will be exchanged and an expert group will likely have the details of part of the border resolved within six months. Tang did not respond to Indian concerns that the PRC was aiding Pakistan's weapons program except to say that it was not directed against India. Tang proposed a five-point agenda for future talks to include economic cooperation, exchange of military delegations, regional security, and border talks.
"India-China talks give ties fillip"
"China, India still have a long way to go"
"Military ties with Pakistan normal course: Chinese FM briefs Jaswant"

The five Latvians sentenced for the Purulia arms drop case had their sentences commuted and were handed over to Russian authorities after the Russian government made repeated appeals to India for their release. Afterwards, the British government announced it was following pressure tactics similar to Russia in order to gain the release of British arms dealer Peter Bleach.
"Govt frees 5 Latvians convicted in Purulia armsdrop case"
"UK to plead armsdrop pilot's case with India"

Columnist C Raja Mohan argued that the Sino-Russian relationship has been crucial in shaping India's security environment. India could be tempted to join the Sino-Russian common front against the US or to see this axis with concern and seek a countervailing political relationship with the US. India should, though, avoid entangling alliances and improve political and economic relations with all three states. India's relationship with the US is currently too shallow and narrow to be a source of leverage when compared to US ties with Russia and the PRC, but the US will remain a source of technology, capital and regional stability.
"India and Sino-Russian summit"

Pakistan

Deposed Pakistan Premier Nawaz Sharif, currently serving two concurrent life terms on charges of hijacking and terrorism, was found guilty of tax-evasion and sentenced by an anti-corruption court to 14 years in jail, fined about US$370,000, and disqualified from politics for 21 years. He had purchased and maintained a helicopter, the expenses for which were beyond his income.
"Sharif sentenced to 14 years in jail"
"Nawaz given 14 years Rigorous Imprisonment (RI), fined Rs20m:"

Pakistan submitted a formal request to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) to be granted "full dialogue partner" status, an upgrade from its current "sectoral dialogue partner" status. ASEAN Secretary General Rodolfo Severino stated that topics for the upcoming talks included the US Theater Missile Defense program, the situation in Indonesia, and the question of territory in the South China Sea.
"Pak. seeks ASEAN Regional Forum membership"

Kuwait declared Pakistan as the "most favored nation" with respect to oil supplies, and Kuwait will send a delegation to Pakistan to discuss privatization of the oil industry. Pakistan imports 1.25 million cubic meters of fuel oil and 4.25 million cubic meters of gas oil annually from Kuwait.
"Kuwait grants "Most Favoured Nation" status to Pakistan"
"Pak repeats offer of dialogue with India"

PRC Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan arrived in Pakistan on Saturday to meet with Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf and to hold talks with Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar. He will discuss regional security issues and exchange views on common issues of international concern. Tang, speaking in Pakistan after leaving India, said that rapprochement between India and the PRC will not affect the PRC's "all weather" relationship with Pakistan.
"Chinese FM arriving for top-level meetings"
"Chinese Foreign Minister due today"
"Warmth towards India will not affect Pak.: China"
"Ties with Pakistan to grow stronger: Chinese minister reaffirms cooperation"

Pakistan Ambassador to the US Maleeha Lodhi cautioned the US against building a "strategic alliance" with India to counter the PRC or the Muslim world, which he said would be a strategic liability for the US and provoke needless hostility. He also spoke about relations with India, and said, "Pakistan has displayed self-restraint. We expect India to reciprocate such restraint. Yet, it must be realized that violence in Kashmir will end only once India agrees to desist from its brutal repression of the Kashmiri people."
"United States cautioned on Indo-Israel deal"

Kashmir

Indian security forces killed six militants in Jammu and Kashmir last week and recovered a cache of arms and ammunition. Security forces also found a militant hideout and recovered numerous explosives.
"4 foreign militants among 6 killed in Jammu"
"RDX, anti-tank grenades seized"

Indian soldiers repulsed an attacked by a Pakistani patrol of 25-30 soldiers in Jammu on Sunday, leaving three Pakistani soldiers and one Indian soldier dead. Indian military forces are in heightened alert in anticipation of problems for the coming Independence Day as there have been reports of increased infiltration of the border from Pakistan by militants. Director General of Police Gurbachan Jagat said that in Jammu and Kashmir it was not a proxy war, but an undeclared war, with Pakistan aiding and training militants.
"Pak attack on J&K post repulsed"
"Army, BSF beef up security along border"
"Undeclared war on in J&K, says DGP"

In a joint statement, the G-8 countries called on India and Pakistan to "resume a dialogue as soon as possible" and to "join international efforts to strengthen the non-proliferation and disarmament regime."
"G-8 urges India, Pak to resume talks"

Former Foreign Secretary SK Singh argued in a column in the Hindu that while Pakistan has publicly called for talks as long as the content is carefully prescribed, India has offered to talk on any subject as soon as Pakistan stops the export of cross-border terrorism. He argued that while Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf has been moderate with his authority, he has continued the policy of using the Inter-Services Intelligence to keep insurgency in the Kashmir going, and he is unable to control extremism or promote liberalism at home. He concludes by saying, "The General's arguments and assumptions are specious and unacceptable."
"Pak. & India: indifference as policy - I"

The founding of "South Asians for Human Rights" promotes informal, second-track approaches to regional thinking at a time when formal, governmental mechanisms have stalled.
"Building bridges in South Asia"

Pakistan-administered Kashmir leader Khawaja Mushtaq Husain called for enforcing a ceasefire and starting a multi-channel dialogue on both sides of the line of control.
"POK leader calls for ceasefire in Kashmir"

Pakistan refuted an Indian claim to approximately 1 million square kilometers of ocean in the Arabic Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Pakistan said that India misunderstood the international agreements regarding the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
"Indian claim refuted"

An editorial in the Times of India argued that recent actions by Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah and the central government were largely posturing, and have given way to talks which could yield a middle-course. While the Constitutional Review Commission can only discuss Jammu and Kashmir in the context of devolution, there is no danger that Jammu and Kashmir will be treated like other states because of its special status.
"Back to Kashmir"

Indian Home Minister Lal Krishna Advani asked Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah to submit new proposals for devolution of powers to Jammu and Kashmir. He said, "If you come to the government with a proposal that is how we would like a rearrangement of powers between the center and the states, whether it is formal or informal, the government would be willing to consider it." Abdullah rejected the possibility of submitting a new proposal and asked that the central government form a group of ministers to decide how much autonomy was necessary for Jammu and Kashmir.
"Centre asks Farooq for fresh autonomy proposal"
"Delhi asks Farooq to revise autonomy proposal"
"No fresh proposal, Farooq tells Centre"

The central government did not respond to Abdullah's request, and it appears it is unwilling to let the Autonomy Resolution stand as the basis for talks. Abdullah said that the resolution still stands, and that rather than rejecting the resolution without comment, "They should have told us where we went wrong."
"Centre, Farooq fail to find meeting ground"
"Karunanidhi for CMs' meet on J&K autonomy: Farooq"
"NC yet to change stand on autonomy: Farooq"
"Farooq returns empty-handed?"

Former Prime Minister of India IK Gujral advocated negotiations, without Pakistan, to resolve the Kashmir issue. He said the Autonomy Resolution should not be branded as dissidence and similar approaches could be used with Kashmir as were used in Assam, Nagaland, and Punjab.
"Gujral for talks on Kashmir issue"

Pakistan has extended to Iran security guarantees for the proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India. India acknowledged that Pakistan should be involved in negotiations with Iran at some point, but that talks should remain bilateral at this point.
"Pakistan ensures pipeline's security"
"India irked over Iran's pipeline stand"

Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga has called a tripartite meeting for July 25 between the government, the opposition United National Party (UNP), and the moderate Tamil parties, to discuss changes to the draft constitution. UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe walked out of the talks on Saturday, charging that the government was attempting a smear campaign by reporting that he had secretly met with leaders of the LTTE. Monks of the Malwatte and Asgiriya chapters of Buddhism announced that they rejected the draft constitution and called on Parliament to reject it.
"Chandrika calls meeting on draft constitution"
"Opposition leader walks out of Lanka talks"
"Sri Lankan Buddhists reject draft Constitution"

Amnesty International, while acknowledging the national security crisis, criticized Sri Lanka for extending an imposition of a national emergency island-wide. The article reports that Amnesty International did not comment on human rights violations by the LTTE, such as the use of children for soldiers.
"Lanka flouting international treaty obligations: Amnesty"

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with the Monash Asia Institute.

Robert Brown, SANDNet Coordinator: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Wade L. Huntley, Security Program Director: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States