Nuclear Issues

1. UK-India Nuclear Diplomacy
2. Pakistan Nuclear Policy

Nuclear Issues

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook stated, after meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, that India and the UK would resume diplomacy over nuclear issues in April, with the hope that Pakistan's stand on signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty will be clear by then. They will also coordinate efforts at the UN Conference on Disarmament. British diplomacy with India on nuclear issues may change depending on the results of the US election, as the UK does not take an independent position on nuclear weapons.
"India, UK to resume N-diplomacy"

A presentation at Pakistan's IDEAS 2000 defense exhibition argued that the nature of Pakistan's threat perceptions, focused on India and Kashmir, requires a reframing of strategic doctrines, because there could not be a distinction between Pakistan's nuclear strategy and its tactics.
"Pakistan, India urged to work on nuclear risk reduction"

India

P.R. Chari, Director of the New Delhi Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, argues that the nature of conflict has changed with the end of the Cold War, with an increased focus on non-traditional internal and transnational threats to state security. Chari argues that these concerns have given rise to a crisis of governance in India, a crisis in which the state is increasingly immobile to act.
"Security and governance - I"
"Security and governance - II"

The Indian Air Force, Indian Navy and Indian Coast Guard began a major exercise near Gujarat. Analysts said that the location was significant because of its proximity to the Pakistani border. The exercises included the participation of India's newest submarine, the INS Sindhushastra, first Indian submarine capable of firing anti-shipping Klub cruise missiles.
"Five-day military exercises begin in Gujarat"
"'Klub-capable' submarines"

The first meeting of the India-Russia Joint Working Group (JWG) on Afghanistan was held in India. Participants were to discuss the Taliban's recent military advances and future developments if the Taliban gains full control of Afghanistan. Also of concern are Taliban-sponsored terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism, and drug trafficking. The Taliban's status as an observer at the recent Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) indicated that the its isolation is not likely to continue.
"India, Russia to discuss Afghan situation"
"India, Russia to formalise JWG on Afghanistan"
"India, Russia to work out strategy against Taliban"

Russian Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs V.I. Trubnikov, speaking at the India-Russia JWG on Afghanistan, stated that there was "a lot of scope" for trilateral cooperation on Afghanistan by Russia, India, and the US.
"Russia for trilateral cooperation against terrorism"
"Russia sees US, India role in Afghanistan"

An editorial in the Times of India by Manoj Joshi argues that the recent talks between India and the PRC over the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) have historically had problems in implementation. Joshi also argues that the separation of the border issues from other security issues has reduced Indian security because of the assistance the PRC has given Pakistan with its weapons programs.
"Beijing's Brinkmanship"

The Times of India reported that the PRC has built a road stretching nearly five kilometers across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and into India in Ladakh. The article states that the PRC will use the road and evidence of other use of the area to justify its claims to territory along the LAC, as India and the PRC differ by as much as 4-5 km in where they place the border.
"A Chinese road into India that New Delhi doesn't see"

During the visit of James Bodner, the US principle undersecretary of defense for policy, to India, the US and India agreed to restart defense cooperation in the non-controversial areas of peacekeeping, environmental security, search and rescue, and responses to natural disasters. The US continues to see India's 1998 nuclear tests as a constraint upon US-India relations.
"India, USA restoring defence ties"

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee will visit Japan in February. The normalization of India-Japan relations will aid economic relations, but the visit will also be seen in the context of reconciliation between the ROK and DPRK.
"Vajpayee to visit Japan in February"

Pakistan

Lord Nazir, the first Pakistani member of the British House of Lords, said that Pakistanis living in the UK believe the current military government to be better than previous democratic governments.
"'Army rule better than previous govts'"

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf stated that the army was prepared to meet any challenges to Pakistan's borders.
"Army ready to meet challenge: Musharraf"

Pakistani Army units will conduct integrated field exercises near the Indian border as part of their winter training.
"Crack Pak units to hold war games near Indian border"

Pakistan Air Marshal Mushaf Ali Mir stated that Pakistan would buy 30-40 F-7 MiG fighter jets from the PRC following the US refusal to sell F-16s to Pakistan.
"Pak plan to buy fighter planes from China"

The Dawn reported that Pakistan's IDEAS-2000 defense exhibition highlighted Pakistani self-reliance in defense production. Presentations by Pakistani experts on indigenously developed weapons systems were included in the schedule.
"Self-reliance in defence technology stressed"

Saudi Arabia and Malaysia expressed interest in Pakistani-built French Agosta 90-B submarines. Pakistan's second Agosta will be delivered in 2002. Pakistan Navy Admiral Abdul Aziz Mirza stated that Pakistan had received assistance in the shipbuilding industry development from the PRC.
"IDEAS-2000: Saudi Arabia, Malaysia interested in Agosta"

IDEAS-2000 concluded by opening several exhibitions to the public. There were several displays by jet fighters and tanks in mock combat and attacking targets.
"IDEAS-2000 ends with aerobatics show"
"Defence show opens for public"

The Dawn reported that the ban on border crossings into Pakistan by Afghani refugees may be a policy implemented to prevent the crossing of terrorists, as witnesses reported seeing refugees being permitted to cross the border. The Pakistani Home Department clarified that the border is only closed to new refugees, and not to old refugees or those with permits issued by the Taliban.
"Ban on Afghan refugees not being implemented"
"Islamabad eases curbs on Afghan refugees"

Kashmir

The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) has asked UN General Secretary to appoint a special envoy to examine the ongoing problem in Kashmir. The OIC also sent its second fact-finding team to Jammu and Kashmir to investigate conditions there.
"OIC demands UN envoy for Kashmir"

The UK's Birmingham area was reported by the Times of India to have emerged as a training center for Mujahideen militant groups. Among the places for which they are being trained to fight is Jammu and Kashmir.
"Mujahideen being trained in Birmingham for jihad"

All-Parties Hurriyat Conference leader Abdul Gani Lone was granted a passport by the Indian government valid for travel to Pakistan to attend the wedding of his son to the daughter of Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front chief Amanullah Khan.
"Lone issued passport to attend son's wedding in Pak"
"Lone leaves for Pakistan to attend son's wedding"
"Gani Lone says he will meet other leaders"
"Hurriyat, JKLF form ties of kinship"

At the wedding, All-Parties Hurriyat Conference leader Abdul Gani Lone stated that the marriage would assist "in the integration of he divided Kashmir." The wedding brought together politically opposed groups in Jammu and Kashmir.
"Abdul Gani Lone calls for united Kashmir"
"A wedding and a vow in Rawalpindi"
"'A historic occasion' says Amanullah Khan"

Former All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) chairman Mirwaiz Umer Farooq did not attend the wedding, which APHC sources said was because of fallout between him and Lone over the APHC. Farooq reported that Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf, whom he met at the Organization of Islamic Conference, stated that he was ready for a negotiated resolution to Jammu and Kashmir rather than insisting upon the UN proposed plebiscite. This statement was rejected by Riaz Mohammad Khan, a spokesman of the Pakistani Foreign Affairs Ministry.
"Mirwaiz Farooq distances himself from Pakistan"
"Pak. for change in stand on Kashmir?"
"'Pak. stand on Kashmir unchanged'"

Syed Ahmad Mukhari, a Muslim leader in India, asked Syed Salahuddin, supreme commander of the Hizbul Mujahideen, to observe a ceasefire for the holy month of Ramazan.
"Ramazan truce proposed in Valley"

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee announced on November 19 that Indian security forces would observe a ceasefire against Kashmiri militants during the month of Ramazan, which begins November 26. He said, "The government has, therefore, instructed security forces not to initiate combat operations against the freedom fighters in Kashmir during this most pious month." Vajpayee also put the onus on Pakistan by calling for Pakistan to stop supporting cross-border terrorism in honor of the ceasefire.
"Delhi offers ceasefire in Ramazan"
"Peace in Kashmir: ball now in Pakistan's court"

An article in The Hindu by Atul Aneja reported that the Indian government's ceasefire offer was extended after consulting with the security forces. The Indian Army will reportedly not reduce its presence along the border, though the onset of winter should make border crossings more difficult.
"Army consulted on J&K ceasefire"

The Indian government's ceasefire offer is timed with the wedding of All-Parties Hurriyat Conference leader Abdul Gani Lone's son to the daughter of Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front chief Amanullah Khan, and is reported by the Times of India as putting responsibility into the hands of both Pakistan and Kashmiri militants to push the peace process forward.
"Centre announces Ramazan truce in Kashmir"

Hizbul Mujahideen sources were reported as having said that the ceasefire offer was welcome and that the Hizbul should respond favorably. However, the Hizbul Momineen, one of the few groups comprised predominantly of local Kashmiris, denounced the ceasefire offer. Spokesmen for the Harkatul Mujahideen and the Al Badr militant groups rejected the ceasefire offer proposed by Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee.
"Hizb may welcome PM's offer"
"Mujahideen groups reject offer"
"Kashmiri groups react coolly to Indian offer"

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah stated his support for the ceasefire offer. He said, "I am happy about the decision and hope that militants would also respond to the offer and end the violence in the valley." Abdullah also reported that Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee had indicated that the ceasefire could be extended beyond Ramazan if it is well received.
"Farooq welcomes ceasefire"
"Ceasefire, a positive step says Farooq"
"Truce may be extended if all goes well: Farooq"

Hizbul Mujahideen chief Syed Slahuddin, speaking on behalf of the Muttahida Jihad Council, rejected the Indian government's ceasefire offer unless it were part of a larger political solution that includes Indian recognition that Kashmir is a disputed territory and that a tripartite solution was required.
"Jihad Council rejects ceasefire offer"

The British Minister of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Peter Hain, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister V.I. Trubnikov reported that their countries had reacted positively to India's ceasefire offer.
"UK, Russia welcome ceasefire offer, Pak skeptical"

Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Riaz Mohammad Khan stated that forward progress on Kashmir required India to end the repression of the Kashmiri people. Khan said that otherwise, the ceasefire offer "could only be tactical and part of India's effort to impose a military solution."
"Pakistan wants end to repression in Kashmir: Truce offer termed a ploy"

An article in The Hindu argues that while the ceasefire offer does draw negative attention to India in some regards, it creates new space for dialogue in Kashmir.
"The ceasefire offer"

The links below provide coverage of incidents of violence that occurred in the past week in Jammu and Kashmir.
"10 militants among 13 killed in Kashmir"
"2 Hizbul Mujahideen militants arrested"
"Army officer, three jawans killed in J&K"
"Nine militants, securityman killed in J&K"
"Top militant nabbed in Tripura"
"17 militants killed in J&K"
"ULFA targets business families, kills seven"
"3 militants killed, 80 kg RDX seized in J&K"
"Three injured in Indian shooting"
"18 killed in Kashmir shootouts"

Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga expanded her Cabinet to 45 members with the inclusion of Athauda Senevirante as minister in charge of ethnic affairs and national integration.
"Kumaratunga expands jumbo cabinet"

Fighting erupted when the Sri Lankan military launched its first offensive against the Liberation Tigers Tamil Eelam since the recent Norwegian peace initiative. Sri Lankan troops were successful in capturing territory.
"Lanka says 17 die in first push since peace bid"
"Troops recapture more areas in Jaffna"

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with the Monash Asia Institute.

Robert Brown, SANDNet Coordinator: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Wade L. Huntley, Security Program Director: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States