Nuclear Issues

1. Nuclear Sanctions
2. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
3. Pakistan Missile Testing
4. Pakistani Nuclear Deterrence
5. Report on Nuclear Strategy
6. India-PRC Nuclear Issues

Nuclear Issues

Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs John Manley announced that Canada had decided to lift sanctions imposed on India after the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests. Manley said, "We have made our stand on the nuclear issue with India clear and the time has now come to move on." He also said Canada "will continue to call upon India to renounce its nuclear weapons program." Manley stated that restrictions on military and nuclear ties would continue, and that sanctions against Pakistan were being handled separately.
"Canada lifts curbs on India"
"Canada lifts sanctions"

Sources reported that commanders of the Pakistani Army had recently met and given their unanimous approval to Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty once a consensus is developed among the political parties.
"Pak Army green signals govt to sign CTBT"

Seema Guha stated in the Times of India that signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty could give Pakistan a diplomatic edge it has lost since the Kargil incident. Mariana Baabar writes in Outlook India that the shift on the CTBT is related to Musharraf's need to overcome the debt repayment crisis, but will likely cause a backlash as discontent with his regime grows.
"Pak talk of CTBT a smart move: experts"
The Nukes Of Barter

Takeshi Hikihara, with the Asian Affairs Bureau of Japans's Foreign Ministry, reiterated Japan's promise of increased economic cooperation with Pakistan if it signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
"Japan offers 'privileged' ties if CTBT signed"

C. Raja Mohan writes in the Times of India that India is unlikely to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, regardless of Pakistan's decision, but will maintain its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing.
"India unmoved by Pak. line on CTBT"

Samar Mubarakmand, chairman of Pakistan's National Engineering and Scientific Commission, stated that the Shaheen II missile would be ready for testing as soon as military government decides to schedule a test.
"'Shaheen-II missile ready for testing'"

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf stated that Pakistan would maintain a minimum deterrence, which he said is quantifiable relative to an enemy's strength and should be followed by the ability to threaten an enemy's vulnerable targets beyond their tolerance threshold.
"Minimum deterrence essential, says CE"

The Hindu stated that Jane's Intelligence Review reported that India has moved more slowly than Pakistan towards implementing a nuclear strategy, and that Pakistan has also moved more quickly towards implementing systems to ready a "more modest nuclear arsenal."
"'Pak. developing n-weapons faster than India'"

Responding to the Jane's report, India's Foreign Ministry released a statement which asserted that India has a credible nuclear deterrent, but denied that it was country specific or part of an arms race.
"Nuclear deterrent can meet any threat, says India"
"India not engaged in nuclear race"

An essay by Satish Kumar, a Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, highlights the threat facing India as the PRC has nuclearized Tibet. Kumar states that in 1987, the PRC had 25 percent of its nuclear forces placed in Tibet, focused on heavy counter-force and counter-value damage to an enemy. Kumar argues that India is in danger of losing Tibet as a buffer zone between itself and the PRC.
"Nuclearisation of Tibetan Plateau and its Implications for India"

India

Bishwashwar Mishra reports in the Times of India that the defense scandal which forced George Fernandes to retire as Defense Minister will likely mean that, with impending elections, Kashmir will cease to be a major issue of concern. Security experts stated that the All Parties Hurriyat Conference would not participate in peace talks because it was not in a position to end violence by any of the militant groups.
"Crisis may render J&K ceasefire futile"

PRC Premier Zhu Rongji will skip India on an upcoming your of South Asia. An official stated that there was too short a time to accomplish anything substantial between Zhu's visit and Li Peng's recent visit.
"Chinese premier to skip India"
"Chinese PM not to visit India on first South Asian tour"

Pakistan

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf received a message from Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee in honor of Pakistan Day, saying, "India remains committed to the establishment of good neighborly relations." The Times of India reported that the momentum building towards the resumption of talks since the ceasefire extension has stalled.
"PM greets Musharraf on Pakistan Day"

Pakistan Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf stated that while India would say no to participation in the India-Pakistan conflict as mediators by the UN or the US, they should become involved anyway. Musharraf stated that while India wanted to go back to the Lahore Declaration from 1999, he argues that the Declaration does not serious address Kashmir. He also stated that the issue could not be referred to the International Court of Justice because Kashmir was not a disputed territory, but concerned the rights of people who did not want to be a part of India.
"Musharraf for 3rd party in Indo-Pak matters"
"Kashmir not a territorial dispute, says Musharraf"

In an effort to prevent a pro-democracy rally planned for Pakistan Day, Pakistani police reportedly detained hundreds of members of political parties.
"Pakistan Day amid chaos"
"Pakistani police crack down on opposition"

Kashmir

An essay in Outlook India by V. Sudarshan argues that the defense scandal will likely prevent Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee from moving his peace process from ceasefire to constructive dialogue. Sudarshan also argues that the controversy will prevent Vajpayee from overcoming the hardliner coalition represented by Home Minister L.K. Advani, which has objected to talks with the All Parties Hurriyat Conference.
"Kashmir: The Third Casualty"

All Parties Hurriyat Conference Chairman Abdul Gani Bhat stated that the Hurriyat would engage in talks with the Indian government after it was given a chance to travel to Pakistan to talk with the military government and with militant groups there.
"First Pak trip, then talks with Centre: Hurriyat"

The links below provide coverage of violence that occurred in the past week in Jammu and Kashmir.
"Nine militants, NC leader killed in J&K"
"Two militants among seven killed in J&K"
"LET suicide squad storm CRPF camp, 4 killed"
"Two Hizb-ul militants, BSF jawan killed in South Kashmir"
"13 killed in Kashmir blast"
"BSF jawan, 3 militants killed"
"20 injured in Kashmir violence"
"11 die in Kashmir shootouts, blast"
"Six killed as Mujahideen storm police camp"

Sri Lanka

Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) "Sea Tigers" attacked a Sri Lankan Navy patrol two days before their unilateral ceasefire was due to end, killing seven. Sri Lankan Air Force jets also attacked a LTTE base. There were conflicting reports as to the casualties in both attacks.
"Tigers destroy Lanka naval craft, 7 sailors killed"
"Sea, land battles shatter truce in Sri Lanka"

The LTTE stated that it may resume attacks outside Jaffna, including upon Colombo, if the army maintains its offensive against the LTTE.
"Tigers will attack Colombo if truce not responded"

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with the Monash Asia Institute.

Robert Brown, SANDNet Coordinator: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Wade L. Huntley, Security Program Director: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States