Nuclear Issues

1. Indian Perspective on BMD

Nuclear Issues

Kannan, a Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, writes that India was naïve to support the US missile defense efforts so quickly because US deployment of missile defenses will cause both the PRC and Russia to strengthen their nuclear forces and because India's support reinforces the perception by the PRC that the US is seeking to contain it. Kannan argues, however, that India needs to exploit this opportunity for stronger relations with the US and seek protection under the US missile defense umbrella.
"NMD's Chain Reactions And India"

India

Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee reiterated that the Agra summit did not produce a declaration or joint statement because Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf maintained that there must be acknowledgement in writing of the "centrality of the Kashmir issue" before talks could proceed on other issues. Vajpayee stated that Musharraf came "as a military man with a specific self-serving goal and was not serious about restoring peace" between India and Pakistan. The News states that Vajpayee has laid the blame upon Musharraf to dispel among Indians the perception that an agreement was blocked by Home Minister L.K. Advani and others hawkish on Pakistan. Vajpayee faced opposition to his proposed confidence building measure, the opening of additional locations along the India-Pakistan border for issuing travel visas, because of concerns that this would spread areas affected by cross-border terrorism.
"India talks tough on Kashmir"
"Musharraf not serious about peace: Vajpayee"

Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee stated that any future India-Pakistan dialogue would need to address India's concerns about Pakistani support for terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. He said, "We cannot accept that the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir today, with its foreign mercenaries and generous assistance from abroad, is anything but terrorism." He pointed out that there were several massacres immediately following the Agra summit. Vajpayee stated that he has accepted an invitation to visit Pakistan from Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, as has External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh accepted an invitation from Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar.
"Pak assistance to terrorism hurdle to better ties: PM"

Indian Prime Minister A.B Vajpayee said that future India-Pakistan talks could be complicated by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's assertions to the press that a joint declaration could not be signed at the Agra summit because of a split in the Indian government caused by hardliners.
"Pak President's remarks could pose problems: PM"

Indian Home Minister L.K. Advani rejected the assertion of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf that militancy in Kashmir was the result of a struggle for freedom and not the result of cross-border terrorism. He was also critical of Musharraf, finding him responsible for the Summit's failure to produce positive results.
"Advani rejects Musharraf stand on militancy"
"Advani squarely blames Pakistan for Summit deadlock"

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's letter formally inviting Indian Prime Minister A.B Vajpayee to visit Pakistan was delivered on July 27. The text of the invitation has not been made public, but Vajpayee had already accepted the invitation in principle. The Deccan Herald reports that the visit is not likely to take place this year, though Musharraf and Vajpayee may meet under other circumstances. Vajpayee stated that he was not under pressure to call off his prospective visit to Pakistan.
"Musharraf's letter of invitation to PM handed over to govt"
"Musharraf formally invites Vajpayee: Early solution of Kashmir issue stressed"
"Pak to send invite to Vajpayee for second summit"
"I am under no pressure to call off Pak visit: PM"
"Vajpayee says he will visit Pakistan: Pressure against talks denied"

Indian Prime Minister A.B Vajpayee led the commemoration of the Kargil incident. Vajpayee and other Indian officials and military officers paid homage to those killed during the incident. The Hindustan Times reported that Pakistan shelled Tiger Hill, a battle location during Kargil, as they did during last year's commemoration of Kargil.
"Nation's homage to Kargil martyrs today"
"Pak artillery fire hits Kargil celebrations"

Former Chief of the Indian Army Staff General V.P. Malik stated that intelligence lapses contributed to India's failure to prevent the incursion by Pakistani soldiers.
"Intelligence lapses led to Kargil intrusion: Malik"

The departing Indian Ambassador to Russia, S.K. Lambah, said that after some uncertainty, India-Russia relations have moved into constructive overdrive. The Hindustan times reports that over $5 billion in new military contracts have been signed over the past two years.
"Departing envoy sees Indo-Russian ties in overdrive"

US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christine Rocca said that the US would "work its way through the sanctions" imposed on India in the wake of the Pokhran nuclear test. She stated that the US was reviewing its sanctions policy both generally and specifically for India and Pakistan, the latter created under the 1998 Glenn Amendment. She said, "We will need to work closely with Congress to see how the current situation might be changed." However, the Hindustan Times reports that senior members of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee are upset that US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has spoken about a timeline for lifting sanctions without consulting Congress.
"Bush regime to go soft on sanctions: Rocca"
"Rocca hints at lifting of sanctions on India"
"Lifting of US sanctions way off"

Satyajit Moanty, a Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, writes that because of the growing influence of the US in areas around Russia, Russia is facing a "Hobson's choice" of strategic partners, which has increased the relative importance to Russia of the PRC, India, and the Central Asian Republics. Meanwhile, the PRC, which had looked to flow into a power vacuum in Asia that never developed, is being driven by the US proposed missile defense program to strengthen its position through cooperation with Russia. For India, problems with the PRC and PRC-Pakistan ties are a good incentive to improve relations with the PRC, though its search for allies against terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism also contribute.
"China, Russia and India"

Pakistan

Syed Talat Hussain reports in The Dawn that while the US is likely to soften sanctions against India, it will be hardest to ease those imposed upon Pakistan because of the coup and failure to return to democracy. These sanctions, imposed under Section 508 of the Foreign Appropriation Act, will be discussed when US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christine Rocca visits Pakistan next week. Hussain quotes diplomatic sources as stating that while the US did not publicly oppose the elevation of Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf to the position of President, it privately took strong exception to the move.
"Democracy-related US sanctions likely to stay intact"
"Pakistan to plead for lifting of US sanctions: Rocca due today"

Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar reported that Pakistan would not be concerned about growing India-US ties as long as they do not harm Pakistan.
"No concern over Washington-Delhi ties, says Sattar"

The Dawn reports that the Washington Post reported that the US has formally protested to the PRC its continuing exports of missile-related parts and technology to Pakistan and other countries. US Secretary of State Colin Powell was due to discuss the issue during his recent visit to the PRC.
"Powell to share US concerns with China: Missile sale"
"US protests Chinese missile aid to Pakistan"

Pakistan government spokesman Riaz M. Khan denied that Pakistan had made settlement of Kashmir a precondition to normalization of relations with India. Khan also stated that the confidence-building measures (CBMs) proposed by Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajapyee prior to the Agra summit have been officially communicated to Pakistan and were being considered.
"Kashmir issue not a pre-condition for normalising ties: Pak"
"'Core issue', not Musharraf caused deadlock: ISPR"

Pakistan reported that thirty-one Indians held for illegally entering Pakistan near Baluchistan would be released as soon as India provided them with travel documents and other formalities were completed.
"Pak to free 31 Indian prisoners"
"Invitation will soon be sent to Vajpayee: 31 Indians to be freed: FO"

Bush administration officials have indicated that they are interested in India and Pakistan resuming their high-level talks. The first order of business for the new US ambassadors to the region is to push for these talks. US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christine Rocca will also visit the region soon and will be pushing for talks.
"US to push to revive Indo-Pak talks"

Kashmir

Brahma Chellaney writes in the Hindustan Times that the Agra summit was a good example of mistaking diplomacy for blindness, stating, "India closed its eyes to reality, shut its ears to the pre-summit messages from Islamabad and stayed mute to Pakistan's propaganda war." Chellaney argues that Pakistan successfully hijacked the summit to improve its legitimacy and refocus attention on Kashmir, leaving the summit itself to stall on the continuing conceptual divergence over their bilateral relations. The summit, he states, shows Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf was not ready to move ahead, constrained by the other generals in his junta.
"Clueless in Agra"

An editorial in the Hindustan Times argues that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's invitation to Indian Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee to visit Pakistan shows Musharraf is hoping for another media event. However, the editorial also argues that India is unlikely to permit another summit that serves only to promote Pakistan's one-point agenda of Kashmir.
"Pak invite harps on Kashmir"

Retired US Ambassador Dennis Kux, currently at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., said in a recent book that both Pakistan and India have been willing at points in the past to settle the Kashmir dispute based upon the status quo.
"'India, Pakistan agreed to settle Kashmir on basis of status quo'"

The Lashkar-e-Taiba has threatened to kidnap and hold hostage Indian criket players.
"Threat to Indian players"

The links below relate newspaper coverage of acts of violence that occurred in the past week in Jammu and Kashmir.
"Four Pak infiltrators, two jawans among eight killed in Kashmir"
"Six Pak infiltrators among nine killed in Kashmir"
"Hizbul suffers setback, top commander killed"
"Three police officers arrested for 'link' with militants"
"BSF guns down five Pakistani intruders"
"One militant killed as clash in shrine goes on in Kashmir"
"Deputy chief of Hizb killed in encounter"
"Top Hizb fighter killed in Kashmir"
"10 freedom fighters killed in Valley"
"Strike paralyses life in Valley: 12 Mujahideen killed"
"Nine killed in Valley; bomb defused"
"10 freedom fighters killed in Valley"

Sri Lanka

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam staged a suicide attack upon Sri Lanka's international Bandaranaike airport near Latunayake. The elite "Black Tigers" squad of the LTTE succeeded in destroying thirteen aircraft at the airport, including eight military jets, helicopters and trainer planes. The Defense Ministry reported that thirteen LTTE and eight security personnel were killed and another twelve people were injured.
"Colombo flights cancelled"
"20 killed, 13 aircraft destroyed in LTTE's suicide attack"
"Tamils destroy 13 Lankan aircraft"
"LTTE strikes, with vengeance"

Sources reported that the attack left the government of President Chandrika Kumaratunga confused as it was preparing several important initiatives. The Sri Lanka Muslim Conference attributed the attack to "abandonment of the peace process initiated by the government of Norway for petty party political gains."
"Raid leaves Colombo dazed"

The Sri Lankan police arrested seven people and took into custody two buses in connection with the airport attack. The airport returned quickly to normal activity, though under greater security. Sri Lanka's Sunday Times reported that the attack could have been prevented as there were three times in the prelude to the attack where things were noted as unusual but nothing was done.
"Seven arrested for Colombo airport attack"
"Tamil Tigers had picnic before raiding airport"
"Lankan airport limps back to normality"
"Sri Lanka steps up airport security after attack"
"3 chances to foil airport attack missed"

The Sri Lankan External Affairs Ministry spokesperson stated that, notwithstanding the airport attack, the SAARC Foreign Secretaries meeting next month would be held as scheduled.
"Lanka developments not to affect SAARC meet"

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with the Monash Asia Institute.

Robert Brown, SANDNet Coordinator: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States

Wade L. Huntley, Security Program Director: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States