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wednesday, october 25, 2000
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I. United States

II. Republic of Korea III. Russian Federation
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I. United States


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1. Albright's Visit to DPRK

The New York Times (Jane Perlez, "ALBRIGHT REPORTS PROGRESS IN TALKS WITH NORTH KOREAN LEADER," Pyongyang, 10/25/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright said on October 24 that "important progress" had been made in her talks with DPRK leader Kim Jong-il toward persuading the DPRK to "restrain missile development and testing, as well as missile exports." Albright said that missile specialists from the US and DPRK will meet next week to explore further the specific ways in which the DPRK can limit its missile program. A senior official said that in particular, a quid pro quo of shutting down the missile program in exchange for launchings of DPRK satellites by foreign governments will be discussed further. However, the officials did not divulge what kind of verification mechanisms they were seeking. Albright's chief aide on human rights, Harold H. Koh, was part of the official delegation but did not participate in the formal sessions with Kim. Albright said, "The issue of human rights was raised for the first time, and we have raised it obviously by a cabinet-level person. I think that it's obviously a subject of concern but we have just begun our discussions on the subject. They obviously will continue." Albright and her aides did not answer questions on what Kim had to say about the possibility of reducing tensions between the DPRK and the ROK or about US troops based in the ROK. On the possibility of the exchange of liaison offices, Albright said that while Kim was interested in having "more informal and formal relations," no decision had been reached. A senior US official said, "Everyone leaves here rather struck by the breadth and depth of the discussions." The two-day visit ended on a cordial note, and as they said their farewells in the lobby of a government guesthouse, Albright encouraged Kim "to pick up the telephone any time." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for October 25, 2000.]

Agence France Presse ("NORTH KOREA'S KIM SWINGS TO NEW EXTREME TO WIN OVER US," Seoul, 10/25/00) reported that analysts said that the DPRK had given new proof of its desire for change after talks between DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and US Secretary of State Madeline Albright. Kim Yong-ho, a professor of political science at Hallym University in Seoul said, "North Korea appears to have abandoned its brinkmanship and adopted a new method for negotiations. In the past it used negative extremes including the withdrawal from the (nuclear) Non-Proliferation Treaty to achieve its diplomatic goals. Now it appears to have shifted to positive extremes, such as the gala welcome ceremony for Albright, to take the initiative in negotiations." Pyon Jin-il, publisher of the Tokyo-based Korea Report newsletter, said, "Kim Jong-il treated the US government's number three figure as if she were the head of state. And one can sense the strong will of Pyongyang to improve its relations with the United States. We should not underestimate the fact that North Korea, one of the world's most aggressive anti-US states, has made such a gesture. The ball is now definitely in Clinton's court and it will be up to Clinton to decide how future US-North Korean relations can progress." Hideshi Takesada, a professor at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies, said, "Although it would be decided after Albright briefs Clinton on her visit, the current tide is heading towards his visit taking place." However, Kim Yong-ho stated, "this is not the right time for Clinton to visit Pyongyang. The issue of weapons of mass destruction and missiles is in the process of being sorted out but it will not be resolved easily. An outgoing president cannot properly guarantee the implementation of any agreement on those long-haul issues." Kang Sung-yun, a professor of political science at Dongguk University in Seoul, argued, "Clinton has enough reasons to visit Pyongyang if it would help settle the issues of weapons of mass destruction and missiles, which are of the utmost concern to Washington."


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2. DPRK Nuclear Program

The Associated Press (George Gedda, "ALBRIGHT WANTS NUCLEAR DISCLOSURE," Seoul, 10/25/00) and the Washington Post (Doug Struck and Steven Mufson, "N. KOREA MULLS CURB OF MISSILE PROGRAM," Pyongyang, 10/25/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on Wednesday that it is "absolutely essential" for the DPRK to disclose details of its nuclear weapons capabilities if its relations with the US are to reach their potential. Albright said, "Obviously the nuclear issue has been one of central importance to us. I made the point any number of times in my discussion with Chairman Kim whatever the subject that confidence- building measures generally and transparency were absolutely essential if our relationship is to move forward." David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, said that peace on the Korean Peninsula "can't be achieved without verified assurances that North Korea is free of nuclear weapons. A single nuclear weapon could cause tremendous havoc to Seoul." Albright encouraged the DPRK to try to make progress on the Japan track in talks next week between officials of the two countries. US officials believe that it is important for the DPRK and Japan to overcome their differences because of the key role Japan can play in helping the DPRK revive economically.


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3. US-ROK-Japan Policy Coordination

The New York Times (Howard W. French, "SEOUL AND TOKYO ARE READY FOR ALBRIGHT'S REPORT ON TRIP," Seoul, 10/25/00) and Agence France Presse ("ALBRIGHT BRIEFS ALLIES ON NORTH KOREA TALKS," Seoul, 10/25/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright arrived in the ROK on Wednesday to brief her ROK and Japanese counterparts on her visit to the DPRK. The improvement in the DPRK's relationship with the US is reviving fears in foreign policy circles in the ROK of seeing inter- Korean ties relegated to the background. The scant movement by the DPRK on issues like regular visits between separated families, military and economic cooperation and a return visit of the DPRK leader, Kim Jong-il, has become an embarrassment for ROK President Kim Dae-jung. Many ROK citizens fear that the DPRK's success in engaging the US at the highest levels will only worsen the situation. Han Sung-joo, a former ROK foreign minister, said, "There is that concern among people, because that is the pattern that Pyongyang has been following through the years. Even now, North Korea is not carrying out the promises already made such as on issues like family reunification, economic cooperation, railroad development and on other things. Of course, there has been no progress at all on military issues." [Ed. note: The New York Times article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for October 25, 2000.]


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4. Clinton's Visit to DPRK

The Christian Science Monitor published an editorial ("CLINTON IN NORTH KOREA? SHOULD HE OR SHOULDN'T HE?" 10/25/00) which said that US President Bill Clinton's decision on whether to visit the DPRK next month should be made cautiously. The report noted that unlike Vietnam, which is clearly living up to its promises to the US, the DPRK's promises are a long way from fulfillment and its history of "trickery and terrorism" calls for vigilance. The report said that Clinton has done well to "engage rather than enrage" the DPRK during years of careful diplomacy, but "American presidents should be cautious in how they bestow their presence. Such visits are more than symbolic. They condone and legitimize. They give a green light for aid, trade, and foreign investment. They signal a lessening of military tension." It continued that DPRK leader Kim Jong- il, in making his promises, may be counting on Clinton's desire to leave a legacy. However, the report added, "until he lets outsiders inspect his missile program and withdraws 4,000 pieces of artillery and hundreds of thousands of troops from the border, it's risky to bring this unpredictable nation in from the cold so quickly." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for October 25, 2000.]


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5. US-DPRK Relations

The Guardian published an editorial ("ROGUES? NOT ANY MORE," London, 10/20/00) which said that Great Britain's decision to establish diplomatic ties with DPRK, while welcome in itself, is another blow to the US policy of containment of so-called "rogue states." The decision, the report said, "stems from the sensible belief that dialogue with problematic regimes, where possible, is preferable to isolation, sanctions and military threats." British foreign secretary Robin Cook used this approach to increase the chances of persuading the DPRK to curb human rights abuses and weapons proliferation. The report said that the establishment of ties gives a timely boost for the Korean peninsula peace process and will help buttress regional stability. The US, the report wrote, "is tacitly beginning to recognize that its containment policy, a cold war hangover, is simply not working." The report added, "It is too much to hope that US diplomacy is at last turning pragmatically. Nor are these shifts necessarily permanent: both Al Gore and George W Bush still seem to think that superpower is invariably insuperable. But as they constantly tell voters, it's good to talk. And out there, in the world beyond the Potomac, the diplomatic apartheid known as containment is dead in the water."


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6. US Troops in ROK

USA Today (Andrea Stone, "U.S. TROOPS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH KOREA," Washington, 10/25/00) reported that military analysts said that the US will keep its troops in the ROK for the foreseeable future, even if a formal peace treaty replaces the current Korean War Armistice Agreement. Alan Romberg, an Asian affairs analyst at The Henry L. Stimson Center, said that US troops are "a balancing wheel that eliminates the prospect of a power vacuum. If there was a vacuum, there might be a compulsion or instinct by one or more countries to fill it. Our presence helps maintain a sense of stability." Andrew Bacevich, a national security analyst at Boston University, said, "The division of the Korean peninsula has offered a handy excuse to maintain U.S. troops in the region that we would want to maintain there anyway. (A big drawdown) could inadvertently trigger some type of instability." Marvin Ott, an Asia expert at the National War College, said, "If you're Korean, you're concerned about two large and powerful neighbors that have not always been friendly: Japan and China." He said that both Koreas see the US as a neutral broker with no territorial designs on the peninsula. Retired Army general John Tilelli, who commanded US forces in the ROK until last year, warned against a "rush to judgment" based on one summit between the Korean leaders and Albright's visit. He said that no decisions should be made until the two Koreas sign a peace treaty that includes provisions for verifying troop and weapons reductions. [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for October 25, 2000.]


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7. Japan-DPRK Relations

Agence France Presse ("JAPAN'S MORI UNDER RESIGNATION PRESSURE OVER HIS GAFFE," Tokyo, 10/25/00) reported that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori on Wednesday faced an opposition demand for his immediate resignation following his statement that he told the DPRK in 1997 that it could avoid taking responsibility for the alleged kidnapping of Japanese nationals by pretending they had just been found outside the country. Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, told Mori during a televised debate in parliament, "You should resign immediately. You have made a lot of improper remarks, but this particular remark should be regarded as one disqualifying you as premier." However, Mori ruled out any question of resigning immediately, saying, "It is our government's responsibility to do our best and persevere" in solving pending issues with the DPRK. Mori said, "I told them they don't have to act in a straight manner. There is an option that these (missing) people somehow happen to have lived in some other places like Beijing or Bangkok."


II. Republic of Korea


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1. DPRK-US Relations

The Korea Herald ("U.S.-NORTH KOREA DIPLOMACY GETS BOLD PUSH IN RIGHT DIRECTION WITH ALBRIGHT VISIT," Pyongyang, 10/25/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and top DPRK officials are taking measured steps to move the US-DPRK relationship toward a "historic moment of thawing," "We must move in steady strides away from the bitterness of the past for the common good," Albright said, toasting her DPRK hosts with red wine at a luncheon in her honor before meeting with Kim Jong-il. There was no immediate indication whether Albright and Kim had resolved their differences in their first day of talks. White House spokesman Jake Siewert said that Clinton would not decide whether to travel to the DPRK until Albright returns.

Chosun Ilbo (Kang Hyo-sang, "ALBRIGHT AND KIM HOLD SECOND DAY OF TALKS," Seoul, 10/24/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and DPRK's National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il started a second round of talks at 2:45pm on Tuesday, with Kim visiting the official guest house, Paekwhawon where Albright is staying. Prior to this, Kim was reported to have said, "I believe that the three hours of talks that we had yesterday are not enough to break the 50 years old silence between the two sides." He added that what is important is not to pretend, but to be sincere. On this note, Madeleine Albright answered, "I am grateful that Chairman Kim has once again spared his time for us." On her second day in the DPRK, Secretary Albright visited the Assembly Hall in Mansudae around 9:50am, exchanged greetings with DPRK Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun for a short 20 minutes talk, and then talked with Kim Young-nam, the DPRK's nominal head, for half an hour. Albright then attended the luncheon held by vice-Marshall Cho Myong-rok and said, "we must break away from the past antagonism and move toward the common good." Cho answered, "Secretary Albright's visit to the DPRK will contribute in bringing a significant breakthrough in the relationship between the US and North Korea."


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2. ROK-US-Japan Talks on DPRK

The Korea Herald ("S.KOREA, U.S., JAPAN, TO MEET ON N.K. SAT.," Seoul, 10/25/00) reported that the ROK Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry said on Tuesday that senior officials from the ROK, the US and Japan will meet in Nara, Japan, on Saturday to discuss cooperative measures concerning the developments on the Korean Peninsula. "During the two-day session, they will assess developments in relations between the two Koreas and in the North's ties with the United States and Japan," a ministry official said. They will also discuss their long-term policies toward the DPRK, he added. The representatives of the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) will be Choi Young-jin, deputy foreign minister, Morton Halperin, director of policy planning at the US state department, and Yukio Takeuchi, deputy vice minister for foreign policy.


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3. ROK-US Talks

The Korea Times (Son Key-young, "ALBRIGHT TO VISIT CHONG WA DAE TODAY," Seoul, 10/24/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who was to arrive in Seoul Wednesday following her visit to Pyongyang, was scheduled to pay a courtesy call on President Kim Dae-jung and to meet with ROK Foreign Affairs-Trade Minister Lee Joung-binn and Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono. Albright, who was to arrive at Seoul Airport at around 9 a.m., would first visit Chong Wa Dae to brief President Kim on the outcome of her visit to the DPRK and join the two ministers at the Shilla Hotel for a three-way meeting over lunch. The meeting was to be followed by a joint press conference for about 30 minutes from 2:35 p.m. She will leave the capital early Thursday morning.


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4. ROK Policy toward DPRK

The Korea Herald (Chon Shi-yong, "TOO EARLY TO PRESS N.K. ON HUMAN RIGHTS, SAYS KIM," Seoul, 10/25/00) reported that brushing aside calls for the ROK to demand that the DPRK improve its human rights conditions, President Kim Dae-jung said Tuesday that it was too early for the ROK to press the DPRK on this issue. "I would not press the issues of human rights and democracy at this early stage as it could be detrimental to building trust," Kim said in an interview broadcast by the BBC. Kim pledged to continue to work for human rights and democracy in the DPRK, but said attempts to rush the DPRK at this stage could be counterproductive. Kim added that DPRK's leader, Kim Jong-il, deserves to share the credit for the recent thaw in inter-Korean relations, which was prompted by an historic summit between the two in June. Kim Dae-jung said that he was surprised that Kim Jong-il had not been named as a joint winner of the Nobel Prize. "The main reason for my winning the award this year is the historic South-North Korean summit, and of course that summit was not just my own work. It was a joint process with Chairman Kim. So in that regard, I felt a little sorry for the chairman," he said.


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5. DPRK-ROK Relations

The Korea Herald ("P'YANG REFUSES LETTER OF REGRET ON DELAYED TALKS," Seoul, 10/25/00) reported that ROK officials said on Tuesday that the DPRK has refused to accept a letter from the ROK expressing regrets at delays in dialogue between the two nations. Unification Minister Park Jae-kyu had tried to deliver the letter, which cited the delays in implementing inter-Korean agreements for family reunions and working- level economic negotiations, but the DPRK refused to accept it, forcing the ROK instead to present the letter, signed by the Red Cross president, through the liaison office of Panmunjom on October 19. Officials said that the DPRK has yet to respond to the letter.


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6. Light-Water Reactor Project

Yonhap news agency ("LIGHTWATER REACTORS TO HAVE HUGE ECONOMIC IMPACT," Seoul, 10/25/00) reported that Roh Dong-suck, a senior researcher at the Energy Economics Institute, said Wednesday that the project to build two light water reactors in the DPRK by the Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) is expected to generate economic benefits for the ROK equivalent to 4.6 trillion won. Roh said that the economic effects of the project will include the creation of employment for some 54,000 workers during the project period. He added that the exchanges of personnel, materials, technologies and economic cooperation are likely to enhance inter-Korean trust and strengthen international non-nuclear systems.


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7. ROK-US Joint Military Exercise

The Korea Herald ("SOUTH KOREA, U.S. TO HOLD JOINT MILITARY EXERCISE," Seoul, 10/25/00) reported that the ROK and the US were to begin a joint military exercise on Wednesday, the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Tuesday. The 10-day exercise, code-named "Foal Eagle," is an annual ROK- US combined field maneuver exercise that has been conducted annually since 1961. The exercise tests rear-area protection operations and major command, control, and communications systems. The Foal Eagle exercise is one of the biggest joint ROK-US drills along with Ulchi Focus Lens and Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and Integration. In a bid not to provoke the DPRK, the JCS has not announced the exact size of this year's exercise. US Forces Korea, however, said that some 25,000 U.S. troops would participate in the drill, 5,000 fewer than last year.


III. Russian Federation


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1. DPRK-US Relations

Gennadiy Charodeyev of Izvestia ("STATE SECRETARY IN MAUSOLEUM AND CIRCUS," Moscow, 4, 10/24/00) reported that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, on an official visit to the DPRK, visited late DPRK Leader Kim Il-sung's Mausoleum and a local kindergarten. Afterward she met with DPRK Leader Kim Jong-il. Following that meeting, some political talks with DPRK leaders and a visit to the Pyongyang Circus were planned.

Nezavisimaia Gazeta's Yelena Shesternina ("HISTORICAL VISIT OF U.S. STATE SECRETARY TO D.P.R.K.," Moscow, 6, 10/24/00) reported that US State Secretary Madeleine Albright, on a visit to the DPRK, gave US President Bill Clinton's personal message to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il during their meeting. The DPRK's missile program and DPRK arms exports to Syria and Iran and the issue of removing the DPRK from the US list of states sponsoring international terrorism were discussed. No agreements were signed. Albright also had talks with other top DPRK officials. She was to go to ROK from the DPRK.

Segodnya's Aleksandr Chudodeyev ("MADELEINE ALBRIGHT 'OPENED' NORTH KOREA," Moscow, 4, 10/24/00) reported that US mass media called US State Secretary Madeleine Albright's visit to DPRK the "most important and historically significant act" during her term in the US Administration. The visit was a modest one, though. At the airport she was met by only a Deputy Foreign Minister, and there were no million-strong columns of enthusiastic people greeting her, as happened during RF President Vladimir Putin and ROK President Kim Dae-jung's visits earlier this year. Albright had a meeting with DPRK leader Kim Jong-il. Asked if the US would follow the example of Great Britain and Germany in establishing formal diplomatic relations with the DPRK, she replied that there were "no haste necessary." Almost simultaneously with Albright, the DPRK was visited by Chi Haotian, PRC Defense Minister. "Beijing has been rather jealously watching the recent contacts of its North Korean ally," the article said.

Segodnya's Natalia Roslova ("CLINTON IS GOING TO VISIT D.P.R.K. AND VIETNAM," Moscow, 4, 10/25/00) reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il personally assured US State Secretary Madeleine Albright on a visit there that his country would abstain from missile tests. It was also reported that US President Bill Clinton was to visit the DPRK, possibly in mid- November along with his visit to Vietnam.


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2. RF-DPRK Economic Relations

Svetlana Babayeva of Izvestia ("FRIENDSHIP WITHOUT MONEY," Moscow, 4, 10/25/00) reported that the RF governmental commission on RF-DPRK economic cooperation returned back to Moscow after a week spent in the DPRK, where they signed a bilateral cooperation protocol. For the first time, the DPRK presented a list of goods it could export to the RF in exchange for things it itself needs. The DPRK wants the RF to participate in the reconstruction of a machine-tool making plant and 3 thermal powerplants. Also, the DPRK asked the RF to allocate to it areas for wood-cutting in Primoriye, Buryatia and Irkutsk of the RF Far East. Also the parties agreed to precisely calculate the amount of DPRK debt owed to the RF. Yet, some RF delegation participants claim that the difficulty is that the DPRK still wishes to build relations on "the Soviet economic basis," despite the fact that a market economy already exists in the RF. The RF does not wish to work free-of-charge, while the DPRK cannot pay for everything it needs. Barter is difficult, because the interests of RF enterprises are not clear. Some credit schemes with ROK participation are under consideration. In Moscow, many people think it has been the RF that brought the DPRK out of isolation recently.


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3. RF-PRC Military Cooperation

Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye ("TESTED IN CHINA ," Moscow, 6, 10/20- 26/00, #39(212)) reported that the PRC Army tested an RF-made Tor- M1 anti-aircraft missile system in its Gobi Desert. RF experts supervised the test fire. 12 missiles successfully hit all targets. Altogether the RF has delivered 27 Tor-M1 complexes to PRC.

Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye ("KA-50 PROMOTION," Moscow, 6, 10/20- 26/00, #39(212)) reported that at the Jukhai 3rd Airspace Fair in the PRC, an all-weather version of the Ka-50 helicopter is to be presented by RF-based Kamov Joint Stock Society. Another version called the Ka-50-2 "Black Shark" is included in a tender to equip ROK Armed Forces.


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4. RF-Japan Deputy Foreign Minister Contacts

Vasiliy Golovin of Izvestia's ("A RETURN TO KRUSHCHEV'S GIFT," Tokyo, 4, 10/25/00) reported that consultations held on 10/23-34/00 in Tokyo between RF Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Losyukov and his Japanese counterpart resulted in the RF openly admitting for the first time that to sign a peace treaty was impossible without determining who owns the South Kurils. Mr. Losyukov said there were no new proposals on the contents of a peace treaty that time. The deliberations are to be continued during Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono's visit to Moscow November 1-3 and RF President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Japanese Premier Yoshiro Mori on November 16-17 at APEC Summit in Brunei. In Moscow there's no clear interpretation of the situation, while in Tokyo some urge to fight for all the isles, others think that step-by- step approach is better, and Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Hiromu Nonaka spoke in favor of digging an underwater tunnel toward the South Kurils and Sakhalin.


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5. RF-Mongolia Military Contacts

Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye's Vladimir Mukhin ("KVASHNIN VISITED MONGOLIA," Moscow, 1, 10/20-26/00, #39(212)) reported that Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin, Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, paid a working visit to Mongolia on October 16-17. He met with Mongolian Defense Minister Gurragkhcha and Mongolian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Lieutenant General Dashzeveg. They discussed Asia Pacific security issues and bilateral military cooperation and training of Mongol citizens in RF military higher school institutes, probably to take place at short- term command courses in the RF Siberian Military District.


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