NAPSNet Daily Report
thursday, july 5, 2001

I. United States

II. Republic of Korea III. Russian Federation

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I. United States

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1. DPRK Missile Program

The Washington Times (Bill Gertz, "US WARNS N. KOREA ON MISSILE TESTS," 7/4/01) reported that the US State Department warned the DPRK on July 3 not to resume its long-range missile flight testing. US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher declined to comment directly on the report that the DPRK conducted a ground test of a Taepodong missile engine last week. However, Boucher told reporters, "But on North Korea's missile activity in general ... we think those activities continue to pose a threat to regional security and stability and to U.S. friends, forces and interests. We expect North Korea to abide by its moratorium on the launch of long-range missiles. We will continue to take steps to address North Korea's overall missile efforts and to work closely with other countries in doing so." Boucher noted that a ground test is not a flight test. He said, "A flight test, of course, would be prohibited by the moratorium. It would be a very serious matter and contrary to the understandings between the two sides." [Ed. note: This article was included in the US Department of Defense's Early Bird news service for July 5, 2001.]

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2. DPRK-Cuba Relations

Agence France Presse ("NORTH KOREA AND CUBA HOLD MILITARY TALKS," Seoul, 7/3/01) reported that according to the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday, Vice Marshal Kim Yong-chun, chief of the general staff of the DPRK Korean People's Army (KPA), praised Cuba's attempts to counter the "vicious" US, following talks with senior Cuban military leaders in Pyongyang. Kim highlighted the "anti-imperialist and anti-US struggle" pursued by the DPRK and Cuba over the past 40 years. Speaking at a reception for the visiting delegation on July 3, Kim said, "The vicious moves of the US imperialists to internationalize the anti-Cuba blockade have been checked and frustrated." KCNA quoted the head of the Cuban delegation General Alvaro Lopez Miera, vice- minister for the armed forces and chief of the Cuban general staff, as saying that "the imperialists' pressure and moves for aggression against Cuba and the DPRK are further escalating as the days go," but the friendship between the two states was growing stronger. KCNA said that during earlier talks, the two military leaders emphasized their desire to strengthen relations between their armies.

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3. EU-Taiwan Relations

Deutsche Presse-Agentur ("EU TO STEP UP DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN EAST ASIA," Brussels, 7/5/01) reported that the EU's executive Commission unveiled plans on Wednesday to open new offices in Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore, expanding the European Union's diplomatic presence in Asia. The agency said that delegation offices representing the EU commission would also be opened in Cambodia, Laos and Nepal. The commission said that an upgraded presence was especially important in Asia, a key political and economic partner for Europe. Officials cited the "growing commercial importance of Southeast Asia" for justifying plans to open delegation offices in Malaysia and Singapore. Consideration was also being given to opening a "trade representation office" in Taiwan. A commission report said, "With Taiwan joining the World Trade Organization, the commission is expected to have a major role in monitoring market access, the application of WTO commitments and other matters related to policy." However, EU officials denied that the move meant a change in Europe's policy towards the PRC. Commission spokesman Gunnar Wiegand said, "There is no change in our one China policy. Taiwan is one of our main trading partners, it is very important that we are represented there." He said the EU had not cleared the decision with the PRC but insisted, "China is not unaware of the move."

II. Republic of Korea

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1. DPRK Missile Test

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, "NORTH KOREA'S MISSILE TEST : FIRST STEP OF IMAGINARY CRISIS," Seoul, 07/04/01) reported that the US State Department said Tuesday that the DPRK is going ahead with development of its long-range missiles. The Washington Times reported that the DPRK conducted an engine test of Taepodong-1 missile just last week. "A flight test, of course, would be prohibited by the moratorium. It would be a very serious matter and contrary to the understandings between the two sides," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said. Boucher said that the Bush administration believes that the DPRK's missile activities continue to pose a threat to regional security and stability and to US friends, forces and interests. However other experts in the ROK expressed different views. "But all those nuclear threats have been already addressed when the U.S. clinched the 1994 Agreed Framework with the U.S. The North has already secured a footing for that matter," said one DPRK watcher in Seoul. "This engine test is another imaginary crisis created by the North to hold Bush's attention."

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2. DPRK Officials to Visit Japan

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, "NORTH KOREAN CULTURE OFFICIALS ATTEND TOKYO EXHIBITION," Seoul, 07/05/01) reported that five DPRK culture officials attended a Tokyo reception on Tuesday July 3 for an exhibition of art works by Ikuo Hirayama, a Japanese painter and UNESCO ambassador. The DPRK plans to submit Koguryo tomb murals for listing as a cultural site on UNESCO's World Heritage List, Kyodo reported on July 4. The five officials included Ri Ju-baeg, head of the DPRK's department responsible for preservation of cultural assets. Hirayama, whose works depicting the DPRK are on display at the exhibition held at a department store, invited the officials to Japan.

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3. PRC Officials to Visit DPRK

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, "CHINESE DELEGATION TO VISIT NK," Seoul, 07/05/01) reported that Jiang Chunyun, vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), will accept an invitation to lead a PRC friendship delegation to the DPRK from 9-13 July, said PRC news agency Xinhua on July 4. Jiang, also a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CCP), will attend the event in commemoration of the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendly Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the PRC and the DPRK.

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4. DPRK Students in US

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, "OVER 200 N.K. STUDENTS STUDYING IN U.S.," Seoul, 07/03/01) reported that the number of DPRK students studying abroad shows big increase compared to the past. Austria has 30 DPRK students in its universities, whereas a year ago with hardly any DPRK students were studying there, according to the ROK's Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA). Half the students go to engineering universities in Vienna and major in architecture while others attend the music conducting classes at Vienna Music University. "Pyongyang may have set a new policy to approach the international society with cultural means," said one of the related officials in the UN. The DPRK is also planning to send another 20 or more students to University of Portland in Oregon, US this coming September to let them study English and capitalistic economy, as decided between the associate ambassador of the DPRK and the University this May. The Institute of International Education based in New York estimates a total of 201 DPRK students are studying in the US, including a number from Chongryon, a pro-DPRK group in Japan.

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5. DPRK-Myanmar Relations

Joongang Ilbo (Kim Hee-sung, "NORTH KOREA SEEKS MILITARY COOPERATION WITH MYANMAR," Seoul, 07/03/01) reported that the DPRK is lately reinforcing military ties with Myanmar through exchanging visits of high-level officials and selling armaments. "The North's high-level delegation headed by vice Foreign Minister Pak Kil-yon made a visit to Yangon, Myanmar from June 20-22 and met with the vice Defense Minister of the region," a Myanmar official said. "The two sides discussed cooperation on radiation." It has also been found out later that the Myanmar had sent its special delegation of members from the Defense and Foreign ministries to Pyongyang last November and held talks with the top members of the DPRK's Ministry of the People's Armed Forces. Another state official said the two sides are likely to aim at selling and transferring technology for conventional weapons like field guns which could be in actual use rather than the export of high-tech weapons.

III. Russian Federation

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1. RF Nuclear Submarine

Nezavisimaya gazeta's Aleksandra Peresvetova ("BUILDING OF A NUCLEAR SUBMARINE IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION," Moscow, 2, 06/23/01) reported that Vladimir Kuroyedov, Commander-in-Chief, RF Navy, said June 22 that the sea-going test of "Severodvinsk," a 4th generation nuclear submarine, had not yet started, as it was at the completion stage of its building. The article quoted Kuroyedov as saying, "even according to NATO's assessments, the submarine is superior to the newest Western nuclear submarines in the majority of criteria, particularly the noise level." The building started in 1993 in Severodvinsk, in the Northern European part of the RF. The Project 885 submarine is armed with torpedoes, rocket torpedoes, "Oniks" anti-ship missiles and "Granit" cruise missiles with the range of 3000 kilometers, can go to the depth of 520- 600 meters, and is equipped with a rescue floating cabin for the whole crew of 90 men, including 32 officers.

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2. RF-USA Naval Contacts

Oleg Zhunusov of Izvestia ("WE'LL BE FRIENDS VIA NAVIES," Moscow, 3, 06/22/01) reported that Admiral Dennis Blair, Commander-in-Chief, US Forces in the Pacific, for the first time since 1996 came to Vladivostok. He met with Admiral Mikhail Zakharenko, Commander, RF Pacific Navy and visited several places. In his opinion, the common problems facing the two countries and their navies are posed by piracy in the region, drug-trafficking, terrorism and the need to help civilians during natural disasters. Unfortunately, for 4 years, due to the Balkan crisis, the navies have not engaged in joint rescue exercises. Admiral Blair believes it is time to restore the links and hopefully other countries of the region, such as Japan, will join them. He did not rule Japan's participation in joint military actions, "if there is the will of the people and the government and if the country's Constitution allows to do that." The RF military have already visited the Hawaii-based headquarters of the US Forces in the Pacific.

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3. PRC Immigration to RF

Vladimir Yemelyanenko of Izvestia ("A CHINESE HAPPINESS," Moscow, 9, 06/23/01) interviewed with Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya, Head of the Population Migration Laboratory, National Economic Forecasting Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences. She said, in particular, that even with the present level of migrants inflow the population of RF is expected to decrease by 20 million by 2016, with an error margin of plus or minus 5 percent. Soon labor will become the most precious economic resource. "Possibly, it is our great luck that we have a neighbor with a huge labor reserve. Modern migration policy should proceed from the fact that immigration in general and Chinese immigration in particular is a necessary condition for Russia's development. Potential immigrants from the former USSR can satisfy not more than 40 percent of the requirements. By the mid-century the share of immigrants in the labor resources will be no less than 20 percent, and there will be 10 to 20 million Chinese living in the RF. Flexible legislation, a strict control and educational activities are the three pillars of the future immigration policy."

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4. US Reconnaissance Plane in PRC

Izvestia ("RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TAKEN FROM THE ISLAND," Moscow, 7, 07/04/01) reported that the US EP-3 reconnaissance plane was taken from Hainan Island by An-124 "Ruslan" transportation planes. First the wing, engines, landing gear and tail were taken to US base at Kadena, Okinawa, then the other An-124 took other parts to Manila. The plane was expected to land on the morning of July 4 at Dobbis airbase in Marietta, Georgia, where experts will try to assess whether the plane can be reassembled. Initially the US planned to do the repair in Hainan itself, but the PRC did not agree.

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5. US-Japanese Summit

Izvestia ("KOIZUMI VISITED BUSH," Moscow, 9, 07/02/01) reported that Japanese Premier Junichiro Koizumi on a visit to US had a meeting July 1 with US President George W.Bush in the Presidential Residence at Camp David. According to the BBC, Bush expressed support for Koizumi's planned economic reforms. The two leaders also agreed to try to solve bilateral differences concerning US plans for missile defense and US refusal to abide by the Kyoto Protocol.

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6. South Kurils Issue

Nezavisimaya gazeta ("TERRITORIAL DISPUTE WITH JAPAN GOES ON," Moscow, 3, 06/23/01) reported that members of the legislative authority of Sakhalin Oblast sent a written proposal to the RF State Duma to hold on- the-spot parliamentary hearings in Sakhalin on the subject of the "Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956 and the National Security issues of the Russian Federation" this fall. The reason is that the Sakhalin Oblast Duma and the public there "are concerned about reports appearing in Russian and Japanese press about Russian leaders' readiness to transfer a number of Kuril Islands to Japan." The letter also said, "numerous appeals on that matter sent to the President and the Foreign Ministry have resulted in calming responses, which do not dismiss all doubts."

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7. RF-Indian Missile Cooperation

Nezavisimaya gazeta's Aleksey Tamilin ("DUAL MEANING OF PJ-10 FLIGHT," Moscow, 6, 06/26/01) reported that recently a successful test flight of the jointly produced RF-Indian unique PJ-10 supersonic cruise missile took place in Orissa, India. Within two year it will be deployed with the armed forces of the two countries. PJ-10 has a range of 280 kilometers, is practically invincible, and is launchable from land, ship, submarine and aircraft. "Joint development of PJ- 10 and its successful test flight testify to the beginning of a re-grouping of strategic forces in the region. The fact of PJ-10 creation more than equalizes the existence of similar missiles in the PRC. The PRC regarded the missile test with caution."

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Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with:
International Policy Studies Institute Seoul, Republic of Korea
Center for American Studies,
Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
Monash Asia Institute,
Monash University, Clayton, Australia

Gee Gee Wong:
Berkeley, California, United States

Timothy L. Savage:
Berkeley, California, United States

Robert Brown:
Berkeley, California, United States

Kim Hee-sun:
Seoul, Republic of Korea

Hiroyasu Akutsu:
Tokyo, Japan

Peter Razvin:
Moscow, Russian Federation

Yunxia Cao:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

Dingli Shen:
Shanghai, People's Republic of China

John McKay:
Clayton, Australia

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