11. PRC Military Strength
James H. Nolt, Senior Fellow, World Policy Institute, writes that the PRC remains militarily weak despite rapid economic growth, the pattern of which is actually undermining the old military-industrial state. He argues that the PRC has been demilitarizing since the 1970s, and its military capabilities have been declining relative to those of the US and most of its Asian neighbors. Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis review the PRC's military strategy, arguing that it is keyed to the attainment of three interrelated objectives: the preservation of domestic order; defense against external threats; and the attainment and maintenance of geopolitical influence as a major state.
"U.S.-China-Taiwan Military Relations"
"Interpreting China's Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future"
David Shambaugh of Foreign Policy Studies writes that Taiwan will continue to hold a number of significant qualitative military advantages against the PRC for most of the next decade. He argues, however, that the PRC is closing the gap, and if current trends continue, sometime in the second half of this decade the conventional force balance will tip in the PRC's favor unless the US transfers massive amounts of high-tech weaponry to Taiwan. Nicholas Barry argues that US politicians and policymakers who emphasize Taiwan's vulnerability to the PRC focus solely on capabilities and ignore the more important question of intentions.
"A Matter of Time: Taiwan's Eroding Military Advantage"
"Leaked Pentagon Study on Taiwan's Military Vulnerability Ignores Chinese-Taiwanese Intentions"