1. Bush Administration's NMD Policy
A Carnegie Endowment Non-Proliferation Analysis of recent remarks by US Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell states that Powell will argue that the US move slowly on missile defenses, negotiate any deployments, and devalue nuclear weapons. The analysis also states that Powell is unlikely to abrogate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Powell designed and implemented the last fundamental revision in US nuclear posture in 1991, withdrawing and de-alerting thousands of nuclear weapons, while the Clinton administration's 1994 Nuclear Posture Review made only minor policy adjustments.
"Colin Powell's Missile Defense Message"
Brian Murphy writes in the Los Angeles Times that during his campaign, US President-elect George W. Bush said that his policy would bring a stronger US military, a tougher line on Russia and China, a scaled-down peacekeeping role for US troops, and a missile defense system, whether the rest of the globe likes it or not. Jonathan Stevenson, a research fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, states that because Bush is facing a divided Congress, he will be unable to implement any radical changes. British Foreign Office Minister Peter Hain said that the UK recognizes US concerns over possible threats by rogue states, but hopes the US will be attentive to other nations' concerns about the missile defense system. Murphy argues that the missile defense system will be the first major international controversy that Bush will face.
"Missile Defense High on Bush Agenda"
An editorial in the New York Times argued that if the incoming administration of President-elect George W. Bush rushes into the missile defense program, it risks losing future possible international support. Instead, the editorial argues, the administration should focus on research and testing of NMD, and use the time to convince other states that the system will not be destabilizing. The editorials states that the two biggest hurdles will be Russia's reluctance to amend the 1972 ABM Treaty and the temptation the PRC faces to expand its missile arsenal if NMD appears to be headed for deployment.
"Prelude to a Missile Defense"