9. PRC White Paper on Taiwan
Stratfor argues that, despite the concern in the US media over the PRC's recent White Paper on Taiwan, all indications suggest that during the upcoming Taiwan elections, the straits will remain calm. In a separate article, Stratfor argues that the white paper has less to do with Taiwan than it does with the PRC's ongoing attempt to contain the US on a global scale, through classic balance-of-power politics. Globally, while a few commentators saw the white paper as mere saber-rattling in advance of the presidential elections in Taiwan next month, a larger number perceived it as a dramatic escalation of tensions across the Taiwan Strait. David M. Lampton argues in The Nixon Center Bulletin that the White Paper will be seen in Taiwan, throughout East Asia, and in the US as an awkward attempt to influence the Taiwan elections and a threat to the people of Taiwan to start negotiating reunification, or else.
"Waves in Taiwan Strait Unlikely to Become Tsunamis"
"The Hidden Meaning of Beijing's White Paper"
"China 'Rattles Sabers' at Taiwan--Again; Will 'White Paper' Backfire?"
"China's White Paper is Counterproductive"