
Energy | Environment | Security
Technological Alternatives to Reduce Acid Gas and Related Emissions from
Energy-Sector Activities in Northeast Asia
November, 1996
Abstract and Executive Summary
Funding for this paper provided by The W. Alton Jones Foundation, The U.S.-Japan Foundation and The Center for Global Partnership.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
1.1. THE ACID GAS EMISSIONS AND ACID PRECIPITATION SITUATION
IN NORTHEAST ASIA
1.2. PLAN OF DOCUMENT
2. TECHNOLOGIES FOR REDUCTION OF ACID GAS EMISSIONS
2.1. "END-OF-PIPE" AND BURNER MODIFICATION EMISSIONS
CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES
2.1.1. End-Of-Pipe Measures for Utility and Industrial Applications
2.1.2. End-Of-Pipe Measures for Applications in Other Sectors
2.1.3. Burner Modification Technologies for the Utility and
Industrial Sectors
2.1.4. Combustion Modification Technologies for Other Sectors
2.2. FUEL PROCESSING TECHNOLOGIES
2.3. "FUEL-SWITCHING" TECHNOLOGIES
2.3.1. Fuel Switching Technologies for Electricity Generation
2.3.2. Fuel-Switching Options for the Industrial Sector
2.3.3. Fuel-Switching Options for the Commercial/Institutional
and Domestic Sectors
2.3.4. Fuel-Switching Options for the Transport Sector
2.4. ENERGY EFFICIENCY TECHNOLOGIES AND MEASURES
2.4.1. Energy Efficiency Technologies for the Utility Sector
2.4.2. Energy-efficiency Options for the Industrial Sector
2.4.3. Commercial/Public/Institutional and Domestic Sector
Options
2.4.4. Energy Efficiency Options in the Transport Sector
3. COMPARISON OF TECHNOLOGIES-ESTIMATED COST-EFFECTIVENESS
FOR EMISSIONS REDUCTION
3.1. TECHNOLOGIES COMPARED, AND KEY ASSUMPTIONS
3.2. METHODS OF COMPARISON
3.3. COST-EFFECTIVENESS RESULTS
3.4. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
4. PROMISING AREAS AND INITIATIVES FOR US-JAPAN AND REGIONAL
COLLABORATION
4.1. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS IN CHOOSING ACID GAS EMISSIONS REDUCTION
MEASURES
4.2. POTENTIAL TYPES OF REGIONAL COLLABORATION
4.3. SPECIFIC US-JAPAN AND REGIONAL INITIATIVES USEFUL IN
STARTING COLLABORATIONS TO REDUCE REGIONAL EMISSIONS
4.4. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER ISSUES
ANNEX 1: SELECTED BACKGROUND FIGURES AND TABLES
ANNEX 2: WORKPAPERS DETAILING MEASURE COST-EFFECTIVENESS CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS,
METHODOLOGIES, AND RESULTS
1.Introduction and Background
Of the many environmental concerns currently facing the nations of Northeast
Asia, the problem of "acid rain" or "acid precipitation"
presents perhaps the most potent combination of immediate and ongoing impact
and regional scope. "Acid rain" , (as described in more detail
in other papers in this series) is a general, though not entirely accurate,
term used to describe a complex set of processes. "Acid gases"-principally
oxides of sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) are emitted
to the air during the combustion of fossil fuels, as well as from some natural
processes. In the atmosphere, acid gases can combine with water vapor or
water droplets to form sulfuric and nitric acids. These acids are transported
by prevailing winds, and eventually fall back to earth (or to the ocean)
as rain or snow. Acid gases can also be adsorbed to particles in the atmosphere,
and fall as to the ground as "dry deposition" with particles or
as ions, becoming acidic when wetted.
The effects of acid rain vary considerably with the vegetation, soil types,
and weather conditions in a given area. Under some conditions, the addition
of sulfate and nitrate to the soil helps replace lost nutrients, and aids
plant growth. In other instances, however, acid deposition can cause lakes
and streams to become acid, damage trees and other plants, damage man-made
structures, and help to mobilize toxic compounds naturally present in soil
and rocks. The countries of Northeast Asia have already begun to experience
some important impacts of acid rain. Forest health in some areas of the
Koreas, China, and Japan has already revealed evidence of degradation that
points to acid rain.1 Man-made materials
such as zinc-plated steel have drastically shorter-than-normal lifetimes
in south China, and irreplaceable cultural landmarks made of limestone and
other substances are being degraded at an accelerating rate.2
While natural sources account for a significant, though uncertain, fraction
of the atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen oxides, human sources appear to be
the major cause of recent declining trends in the pH.a
of rainfall. While some industrial sources of emissions, particularly the
smelting of metal, can be important sources of sulfur oxides, the energy
sector accounts for a large fraction of these emissions. Sulfur oxides are
produced during combustion of coal, which contains varying amounts (0.5
to 5 or more percent) of sulfur, and during combustion of oil products,
particularly the heavier grades. These fuels are commonly used in large
industrial facilities and in electric power generation in all of the countries
of the region, and coal is also a very common domestic fuel in North Korea
(DPRK), China, and Mongolia. Nitrogen oxides are produced at varying rates
by all types of fossil and biomass fuel combustion; the nitrogen in the
NOx produced during combustion is derived both from nitrogen
in the fuel and from the molecular nitrogen (N2) that makes up
nearly four-fifths of the air we breathe. Gasoline-powered autos, trucks,
and buses are major emitters of NOx, as are many utility and
industrial combustion devices.
Though acid deposition can be a local phenomenon, particularly
in urban areas and in areas near a large point source of emissions, the
extent to which acid gases are carried by prevailing weather patterns makes
acid rain a truly regional issue, one that frequently crosses national
boundaries. Although, for example, a large fraction of the emissions in
Northeast Asia both originate and fall to earth in China, there is substantial
inter-country transport of acid gases. As the majority of the growth in
emissions in the next two decades will likely be in China, a substantial
regional, if not international, cooperative effort will be required to reduce
emissions before the level of environmental damage becomes overwhelming.
This paper provides information on the costs and effectiveness of alternative
methods for reducing emissions of acid gases. The intent is that this background
information can serve to illuminate the areas of technology transfer that
are most likely to a) be most cost effective, and b) present appropriate
opportunities for inter-regional cooperation on the "acid rain"
issue.
1.1. The Acid Gas Emissions and Acid Precipitation Situation
in Northeast Asia
Previous papers in this series have presented a detailed picture of the
acid gas emissions and acid precipitation patterns in Northeast Asia. A
very brief overview of this situation is presented below to demonstrate
the need and opportunities for measures for reducing acid gas emissions.
Table 1-1 provides estimates of the emissions of both sulfur and nitrogen
oxides for five of the countries of Northeast Asia for 1990. Emissions from
China, particularly from area sources, bdominate
the regional picture of SOx emissions. For nitrogen oxide emissions,
China's emissions still dominate, but Japan and South Korea produce a much
larger portion of the total. RAINS-Asia reference-case projections, in which
no improvement in emissions controls is assumed, show SOx emissions
from all countries of the region with the exception of Japan nearly tripling
between 1990 and 2020, yielding total regional emissions in 2020 of almost
71 million tonnes.
TABLE 1-1: Estimated Emissions of Acid Gases in Northeast Asia in 1990 (thousand
tonnes)c
Indications from the current pattern of SOx transport are that
while virtually all of the sulfur oxides falling to earth in China originate
in China, emissions from other countries constitute from 15 percent (South
Korea) to over 60 percent (DPRK) of the total deposition in some of the
other countries of the region.3 A review of the
soil types in the region most subject to acidification shows that key agricultural
areas in Southern and Eastern China, in North and South Korea, and in Japan
are at risk.e
The potential huge growth in regional emissions, coupled with the regional
nature of atmospheric transport of acid gases and the sensitivity of key
ecosystems to acidification, makes acid rain in Northeast Asia a problem
that a) must be responded to forcefully and soon, and b) must be addressed
at the regional level, as well as nationally and locally. The remainder
of this document presents and compares some of the technologies and other
measures that could be used to reduce regional risks from acid rain, and
suggests some cooperative strategies to get widespread regional implementation
of appropriate measures underway.
1.2. Plan of Document
Given the situation for acid rain in Asia as outlined above (and described
in greater detail in other papers in this series), the need for options
to mitigate acid gas emissions is clear. The remainder of this paper provides
a description of these options, including:
- A sampling of the available mitigation technologies by type (Section
2), covering emissions control and burner technologies that result
in cleaner exhaust gases, fuel improvement technologies that leave less
sulfur in the fuel, fuel switching technologies that avoid or reduce the
use of sulfur-containing fuels, and energy-efficiency technologies that
reduce fuel use generally.
- A comparison of various technologies and measures for acid gas emissions
reduction (Section 3), providing information on the cost and effectiveness
of selected options, and the estimated life-cycle cost per unit emissions
reduced, relative to a specified reference technology.
- A set of suggestions (Section 4) as to fertile areas for
regional and international collaboration, and suggested mechanisms and initiatives
that could be pursued to catalyze (figuratively) the implementation of acid
gas reduction measures in the countries of Northeast Asia.
2. Technologies for Reduction of Acid Gas Emissions
There are a number of different technologies and measures that can be used
to mitigate future emissions of acid gases in the countries of Northeast
Asia. The text below provides a definition of the classes of emissions reduction
technologies and strategies applicable to the region-especially to China
and North Korea-plus a sampling of the important specific technologies and
measures available. The key questions to consider when evaluating emission
reduction technologies, and touched on briefly in each of the examples below,
include the following:
- Is the technology useful for new facilities, in "retrofit"
(added on to an existing plant) applications, or both?
- What are the costs of the facility, including capital, ongoing O&M
(operating and maintenance) costs, fuel costs (if any), and other costs?
What fraction of the costs are for goods and services that must be imported?
- What is the effectiveness of the technology or measure in reducing
emissions? What is its impact in terms of disposal or solid and liquid wastes,
or on emissions of other air pollutants?
- How applicable is the technology or measure availability in the region?
Is it, or is it likely to be, broadly available?
- Is the technology or measure, as applied in Northeast Asia, likely
to produce other direct or indirect monetary benefits, or involve other
direct or indirect monetary costs? If so, how important are those
costs likely to be?
- Will the use of the technology present other direct or indirect non-monetary
benefits and costs? For example, does the application of the technology
or measure help toward solving or reducing environmental impacts beyond
acid gas emissions? (Note that this topic will be discussed in greater detail
in another paper in this series.)
Four classes of technologies and measures are discussed below: "end-of-pipe"
and burner modification emission control technologies, fuel processing technologies,
fuel-switching measures, and energy-efficiency technologies and measures.
2.1. "End-Of-Pipe" and Burner Modification
Emissions Control Technologies
The first group of measures for reducing acid gas emissions considered here
are those that either "scrub" oxides of sulfur or nitrogen from
the exhaust gas following fuel combustion, or modify the way that fuel is
burned to reduce emissions. The attempt here is to summarize the types of
technologies available. For each type of technology, there are typically
a number of different options and variants.
2.1.1.End-Of-Pipe Measures for Utility and Industrial
Applications
Three of the main technologies for controlling SOx emissions
from utility boilers, large industrial boilers, and large industrial furnaces
and kilns all involve the injection of a sulfur-absorbing substance into
the exhaust gases (flue gases) from the boiler.4
These technologies are most
commonly used on boilers fired with coal, but could also, in some cases,
be used on units fueled with high-sulfur residual oil. SOx removal
technologies for devices smaller than utility or industrial scale are uncommon.
In the first of these technologies, known as "duct injection",
flue gases are cooled, typically using water as a coolant, to an appropriate
"approach temperature", then routed to an absorber unit. In the
absorber, a solution of calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) is sprayed
into the flue gases. This calcium "sorbent" reacts with SOx
in the gases to form calcium sulfate (CaSO4) and calcium chloride
(CaCl2). These reaction products, together with fly ash (particulate
matter from the gas stream) and unreacted sorbent, are removed from the
flue gases by settling and by the use of a fabric filter.f
The reaction products
are disposed of, and unreacted sorbent can be recycled back to the absorber.
Duct injection can be used in two configurations. In the "pre-ESP"
configuration, duct injection takes place before the exhaust gases are routed
to an electrostatic precipitatorg
(for particulate matter removal). Pre-ESP
sorbent injection can remove 30 to 70 percent of the SOx in the
flue gas. Post-ESP injection, in which injection occurs after the exhaust
gas has passed through the ESP, can achieve 80 to 90 percent removal. A
diagram of the latter process is provided in Annex 1 (Figure A1-1). Direct
injection technologies are now in the demonstration and early commercialization
phase. They are relatively low-cost, and can be retrofitted to existing
plants. The lack of demonstration units in developing countries, however,
means that the technologies are unlikely to make much of an impact in China
or North Korea before the year 2000.
A second technology that makes use of sulfur-absorption is the "wet
scrubber" or "flue gas desulfurization" (FGD). This technology
is widely used in developed countries. In wet scrubbers, flue gases enter
a large reaction vessel, where they are sprayed with a water slurry containing
about 10 percent lime (calcium oxide, or CaO) or limestone. The calcium
compounds react with the SOx in the flue gas, forming calcium
sulfate and calcium sulfite, which are collected, thickened (by removing
water and filtration), mixed with fly ash and stabilized with additional
lime, and disposed of in landfills. A diagram of this process is provided
as Figure A1-2. Many of variants of wet scrubber technologies exist, including,
notably, the "limestone with forced oxidation" process (which
uses air to oxidize more of the calcium sulfite to calcium sulfate for easier
removal) and the Chiyoda Thoroughbred process, which uses a streamlined
process design. Wet scrubber technologies remove 80 to 90 percent of the
SOx in flue gases. They are well-proven devices, applicable to
new plants and in retrofit installations, and available from a number of
developed-country suppliers, including Japan. Wet scrubbers are relatively
costly, however, and will require a substantial amount of foreign exchange
until the developing countries of Northeast Asia can produce the technology
domestically.
"Dry scrubbers", or spray dryers, are a third type of sorbent-based
SOx removal technology. Here, a slurry of quicklime mixed with
water (calcium hydroxide) is atomized and sprayed into a tower, where it
mixes with hot exhaust gases. The calcium hydroxide reacts with SOx
in the exhaust gases as the droplets dry, resulting in the production of
a dry calcium sulfate/sulfite by-product, which is collected in the bottom
of the spray dryer and in equipment used to collect particulate matter (ESP
or baghouse). A diagram of this process is shown in Figure A1-3. Dry scrubbers
can remove 70 to 90 percent of the SOx in flue gases. The technology
has been used with low-sulfur coals in the United States and Japan, but
needs to be demonstrated for high-sulfur coals. Dry scrubbers can be used
in retrofit as well as new installations, cost slightly less than wet scrubbers,
and are somewhat simpler to operate.
Options for the control of nitrogen oxides from utility and industrial facilities
include primarily selective noncatalytic reduction (SNCR) and selective
catalytic reduction (SCR) of NOx to elemental nitrogen (N2).
In SNCR, a nitrogen-based chemical reagent-most commonly urea (CH2CONH2)
or ammonia (NH3)-is injected just after the exhaust gases exit
the boiler (that is, when the gases are still very hot). SNCR can reduce
NOx emissions by 35 to 60 percent, can be used in new and retrofit
installations, and have relatively low capital costs. SNCR has mostly been
used with gas and oil-fired boilers and turbines, but has been demonstrated
on coal-fired boilers in the United States and Europe, and has also been
used on specific types of cement kilns.5
Concerns
with the SNCR technology include possible ammonia contamination of fly ash
(ammonia can cause odor problems), release of unreacted ammonia into the
environment with treated flue gases, and production of (N2O),
a potent greenhouse gas, during the reaction of flue-gas NOx
with the injected reagents.
The SCR process is similar to SNCR, in that ammonia is reacted with the
NOx in the flue gas to yield (mostly) molecular nitrogen. The
difference between the technologies, as their names imply, is that SCR makes
use of a catalyst to accelerate the chemical reactions, and (thanks to the
catalyst) can operate at lower flue gas temperatures than SNCR. The catalysts
used in SCR are oxides of metals , typically vanadium and titanium. SCR
has been widely used in low-sulfur coal and oil-fired power plants in Europe
and Japan, but its use with medium- and high-sulfur coals is still in the
demonstration phase. SCR can remove 70 to 90 percent of the NOx
in the flue gas, but is significantly more expensive than SNCR systems.
Issues such as the impact of alkalis and arsenic (common coal contaminants)
on catalyst life, the emissions of unreacted ammonia, and the conversion
of SO2 to SO3 by catalysts (and the impact of that
process on NOx removal) all may have an impact on the applicability
of SCR in Northeast Asia.
Post-combustion technologies for combined removal of sulfur and nitrogen
oxides are currently under development. These processes are expected to
provide SOx and NOx removal in the range of 80 to
90 percent. A variety of different technologies are in the research and/or
demonstration process. The projected costs of these technologies are currently
relatively high, approximately equal to the sum of the most expensive separate
SOx and NOx removal systems currently commercially
available. Table A1-1 in the Annex 16
summarizes some of the advantages and
disadvantages of the combined SOx/NOx removal processes
currently under investigation. These processes will need to be demonstrated
and commercialized first in developed nations before they are likely to
be used in China and North Korea, a process that will take several years,
at a minimum.
Table 2-1 presents capital and O&M cost estimates for the different
utility and industrial-scale end-of-pipe SOx and NOx
reduction technologies described above. As these costs are representative
primarily of utility-scale applications, they are expressed in dollars per
unit of electrical generating capacity and per unit of electricity generated.
For industrial boiler and furnace applications, these costs could be converted
to dollars per unit heat delivered by factoring in the relative efficiencies
of electricity and heat generation. The converted costs would probably be
on the low side of cost for industrial installations, due to economies of
scale in producing and operating the larger utility-scale units.
TABLE 2-1: Cost Estimates for Post-Combustion SOx and NOx Reduction Measures
for the Utility and Industrial Sectors 7
2.1.2. End-Of-Pipe Measures for Applications in Other
Sectors
End-of-pipe or post-combustion methods for reducing SOx and NOx
emissions are generally not available for use in the commercial/public and
residential sectors (except as noted below). In the transport sector, the
major technology for reduction of nitrogen oxide emissions is the catalytic
converter. Catalytic converters have been used on passenger vehicles
and light trucks sold in the United States since the early 1980's, and are
now required in Japan and in many other OECD countries. Three-way catalytic
converters, commonly used in the US, are designed to reduce emissions of
carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons, as well as NOx. These devices
can reduce NOx emissions by roughly 50-90 percent relative to
uncontrolled emissions, and have costs on the order of one hundred to two
hundred dollars per vehicle. Disadvantages of these devices include their
use of expensive catalyst materials (including platinum, in some cases),
and their susceptibility to fouling if poor-quality fuels are used. Catalytic
converter technology can also be applied to stationary engines used to provide
motive power, on-site electricity generation, or engine-driven cooling in
commercial and institutional installations. These applications of catalytic
converters could become more important if (for example) dispersed power
generation or cooling fired with natural gas becomes more prevalent, in
Northeast Asia.h
2.1.3. Burner Modification Technologies for the Utility
and Industrial Sectors
A number of different options are available or in the research and development
phase for reducing SOx and/or NOx emissions by modifying
the way that coal and other fuels are burned in utility and industrial boilers,
furnaces, kilns, ovens, and combustion turbines. Among these are atmospheric
fluidized-bed combustion (AFBC), pressurized fluidized-bed combustion (PFBC),
coal gasification technologies, and low-NOx burner designs.
AFBC boilers have been under development for many years, and are now commercially
available (and in use) in a variety of industrial and utility sizes (up
to 200 MW). This technology is apparently in wide use (although with smaller
units) in China. In AFBC systems, pulverized coal is burned in a "bed"
of circulating (or "bubbling", in a simpler alternative design)
solid material that includes fuel, ash, and limestone. SOx formed
during coal combustion reacts with the limestone and is removed as a solid
product (CaSO4) with the coal ash. AFBC units therefore produce
somewhat more solid wastes than conventional pulverized coal-type boilers
(a common coal combustion technology), but the wastes are of a similar volume
to conventional plants fitted with scrubbers. In addition, the wastes are
generally less hazardous than scrubber sludges, and are considered suitable
for some types of re-use (road construction, aggregate, cement production)
in some countries. AFBC units reduce SOx emissions by 70 to 90
percent relative to conventional boilers, and, because their operating temperature
is lower than other boiler types,i
also produce significantly less NOx.
AFBC units can also use low-quality fuels, such as lignite coal and wastes
from coal cleaning (see below). The cost of AFBC units is somewhat lower
(5 to 15 percent) than similar-sized conventional-coal plants fitted with
scrubbers. Figure A1-4 compares a typical pulverized coal boiler with two
types of AFBC units.
Pressurized fluidized bed combustion technology is a variant of AFBC where
the boiler is operated at higher than atmospheric pressures, and where the
exhaust gas is cleaned after exiting the boiler, then expanded in a gas
turbine. PFBC technology offers higher efficiencies for electricity generation
than AFBC, is easier to retrofit to existing powerplants (due to lower space
requirements), and costs less than pulverized coal plants with wet scrubbers.
It also offers high (more than 90 percent) SOx removal, and low
NOx emissions. PFBC technologies are currently in the demonstration
phase, including a demonstration plant in the design-construction phase
in Japan.
Coal gasification technologies, including integrated gasification
combined-cycle (IGCC) electricity generation plants, start by converting
coal into a gas with a heating value 20 to 50 percent of that of natural
gas (on a volumetric basis).j
The gas is then used as a fuel
for furnaces, kilns, boilers, or other power generation equipment. In an
IGCC unit, coal is first gasified in the presence of oxygen and steam. The
gas thus produced is then cleaned of ash and sulfur compounds.k
After the gas is cleaned, it is burned in a combustion turbine. Hot Exhaust
gases from the gas turbine are routed to a boiler to raise steam which turns
a steam turbine-hence the name "combined cycle". The IGCC technology
promises very high energy conversion efficiencies (up to 45 percent), up
to 99 percent SOx removal, low NOx emissions, and
adaptability to a variety of different grades of coal, including the high-ash
coals that are encountered in China. IGCC plants are in the demonstration
phase in Japan and other countries, and are expected to have capital costs
about 20 percent higher than typical pulverized coal plants with scrubbers;
$1300 to $1600 per kW.8
Figure A1-5 shows diagrams of three
types of gasifiers and a schematic of an IGCC plant.
An additional option for SOx reduction is the direct injection
of sorbent (lime, limestone, or dolomite) into the combustion zone of boilers.
This method works in a similar way to AFBC units and post-combustion scrubbers,
but is less expensive (capital costs of 70 to 120 US dollars per kW, and
O&M costs of 0.3 to 0.7 cents per kWh), easier to operate and maintain,
and is suitable for retrofit applications. Unfortunately, the SOx
removal efficiency of this technology is lower than some of the other alternatives
(30 to 60 percent), and sorbent injection may adversely affect other boiler
and pollution control processes.
For the control of NOx in industrial installations such as cement
kilns, possible technologies include combustion control to optimize kiln
performance while minimizing NOx emissions,l
conversion
of kilns to low-NOx burners by applying indirect or staged combustion,
and recirculation of exhaust gases.9
Low-NOx burners
for utility or industrial boilers can be used in new or retrofit installations,
although the costs for retrofit applications are two- to three-fold higher.
The effectiveness of low-NOx burners in reducing emissions of
nitrogen oxides varies by the type of technology applied, but range between
30 and 70 percent for an investment of $1 to $50 per kilowatt. Low-NOx
burners are used in virtually all new boilers in industrialized countries,
and could be applied at minimal incremental costs in countries like China
and North Korea if the technologies were made available.10
Low-NOx burners are also generally available for boilers and
furnaces fired with oil products or natural gas.
2.1.4. Combustion Modification Technologies for Other
Sectors
"Low-NOx" and similar burner types are available on
some types of residential and commercial gas-fired appliances (mostly water
heaters and furnaces) in OECD countries, but are still not in common use.
Other technologies, such as radiant burners for residential and commercial
water heaters, promise higher energy efficiencies and dramatically reduced
NOx emissions (up to 80 percent), but are not yet commercially
available.11
These technologies may be of use in Japan and
South Korea in the near- to mid-term, but are unlikely to have a great impact
in China or North Korea until gas use (and, subsequently, gas appliance
use) in those countries increases substantially.
For internal combustion engines-mostly in the transport sector but in small
utility, industrial, and commercial/institutional applications as well-much
work has been done on combustion modifications to reduce NOx
and other emissions. These modifications include "lean-burn" engines,
computerized engine control systems, and a host of other proven and under-development
technologies. Given the recent and probable growth in personal vehicle use
in Northeast Asia (for example, in South Korea and China), adoption of these
types of technologies by vehicle manufacturers (particularly in China) could
have a considerable impact on future regional NOx emissions from
the transport sector.
2.2. Fuel Processing Technologies
As the sulfur oxides emitted during fuel combustion are derived from sulfur
compounds present in the fuel, SOx emissions can be reduced by
"cleaning" the fuel of sulfur before it is burned. Reducing the
sulfur content of fuels is the most practical (sometimes the only) method
of reducing sulfur emissions from area sources such as commercial/institutional,
transport, and domestic-sector use of coal and oil products. Options for
reducing the sulfur content of fuels include physical cleaning of coal,
changes in oil refining, and changes in sources of raw and refined fuels.
Physical cleaning of coal is carried out around the world. Approximately
20 percent of the raw coal mined in China, for example, undergoes physical
cleaning.12
Physical cleaning of coal involves grinding to
pulverize the coal and detach non-organically bound mineral particles from
the coal itself. The mineral particles are then separated from the crushed
coal by a variety of physical methods, which can vary by the installation
(and the degree of cleaning desired). These methods include screening, air
classification (for example, with cyclone separators), and "froth flotation"
devices that take advantage of the different properties of coal versus mineral
impurities when crushed raw coal is exposed to water. The removal of ash
through coal cleaning can be up to 60 percent, with retention of 85 to 98
percent of the heating value of the coal. As only the sulfur associated
with the mineral fraction of the coal is removed (and not the fraction organically
bound to the coal), overall sulfur removal is only 10 to 40 percent, and
varies with the coal type. The cost of coal cleaning is usually 1 to 5 US
dollars per tonne. Cleaned coal burns better than raw coal, and the use
of cleaned coal lowers cost for boiler maintenance, enhances the efficiency
of particulate emissions control devices, and can lower coal transport costs
(if cleaning is done at the mine mouth). Coal grinding, however, is energy-intensive,
and some of the energy in the coal (as noted) is lost during cleaning. A
number of advanced coal cleaning technologies, including advanced physical
cleaning, aqueous-phase pre-treatment, selective agglomeration, and organic-phase
pre-treatment (using non-aqueous solvent) are under development, but none
have been widely commercialized.13
Short of fuel switching (as discussed below), the use of cleaned and briquetted
coal may be the only way to substantially reduce SOx emissions
from domestic coal consumption (for cooking and heating) in China, North
Korea, and Mongolia.
A host of oil refinery improvements can be made to reduce the sulfur contents
of refined products such as gasoline, and more importantly, diesel and residual
oil. These improvements are often specific to the particular refinery modified
and the type of crude oil feed used, and cannot be detailed here. In some
cases refinery improvements to reduce the sulfur contents of fuels may be
made at the request of offshore refinery investors who would like to have
the option of trading higher-quality fuels in export markets.m
A final generic solution to reducing the sulfur content of fuels is to choose
the source of the fuel. In some cases this may mean concentrating on extracting
domestic low-sulfur fuel resources first, reserving the higher-sulfur resources
for when refining or control technologies are more mature. In other cases,
some of the countries of Northeast Asia (particularly, for example, Japan,
Taiwan, and Chinese Taipei) may choose to purchase imported fuels (coal
and crude oil) that are particularly low in sulfur, although higher in price
than higher-sulfur alternatives.
The RAINS-Asia software system for modeling current and future SOx
emissions in the region uses price premiums (and thus costs, assuming a
free market for energy commodities) of low-sulfur fuel products over higher-sulfur
alternatives. These costs (in 1990 US dollars) are given in Table 2-2.14
TABLE 2-2: Price Differentials for Low-Sulfur Fuels
2.3. "Fuel-Switching" Technologies
A class of options for reducing acid gas emissions that goes a step beyond
using low-sulfur fuels is switching to fuels that contain little or no sulfur.
This broad class of options includes using different fuels and technologies
for electricity generation, in the industrial sector, in the commercial/institutional/domestic
sectors, and in the transport sector. Options for each of these applications
are presented briefly below.
2.3.1. Fuel Switching Technologies for Electricity
Generation
The major fuel-switching options for electricity generation in Northeast
Asia include natural gas-fired technologies, nuclear electricity generation,
and a variety of technologies for generation of electricity from renewable
fuels.p
Natural gas-fired electricity generation technologies are available
in a wide variety of different sizes and configurations. The are available
for baseload, intermediate, and peaking duty, and include both boiler and
combustion turbine technologies. A particular technology, combined-cycle
gas power plants, has been touted as a "bridge" between the electricity
generation stock of today and a (substantially) fossil-free generation mix
in the more distant future.15
Combined-cycle gas plants are
commercially available, have relatively low capital costs, and are significantly
more efficient than standard coal-fired power plants. As the sulfur content
of natural gas is typically insignificant, switching from coal or heavy-oil-fueled
generation to natural gas-fired options effectively eliminates SOx
emissions. NOx emissions vary with the type of natural gas burner
used and the type of emissions control technology applied, but are often
lower (and/or less expensive to control) than emissions from coal plants.
The major concern with natural gas technologies in Northeast Asia, however,
is not the cost or availability of the generation technologies that use
gas, but the cost of procuring the gas itself. A number of different pipeline
proposals have been made that would bring gas from the Russian Far East,
Siberia, Turkmenistan, or even the Middle East to China, the Koreas, and
Japan. Each of these proposals face formidable political hurdles, and each
would be very expensive, on the order of 10 to 20 billion US dollars. The
importation of gas to the countries of Northeast Asia as liquefied natural
gas is already a common practice, but expansion of LNG imports is also not
inexpensive. New LNG terminals are difficult to site, and cost on the order
of one-half to one billion US dollars. LNG tankers cost on the order of
a quarter-billion dollars each. The expansion of gas imports by pipeline
or tanker will also require the expansion of natural gas distribution networks
in the countries of the region. The ultimate questions determining the extent
to which natural gas can be used to reduce acid gas emissions are: "What
will the total cost of delivered gas be?", and "When will gas
be widely available, particularly in China and North Korea?".
Nuclear electricity generation is used extensively in Japan, South
Korea, and Chinese Taipei; several commercial-sized plants are also started
operating recently in China. As nuclear plants generate electricity without
fuel combustion, they produce no SOx or NOx during
operation, although some acid gases may be emitted at other points during
the nuclear fuel cycle.q Nuclear plants have relatively low
fuel costs, but capital costs are high, and non-fuel operating costs are
also typically significant. In addition to costs considerations, materials
handling, safety, security, waste disposal, and political factors will all
play significant roles in determining the suitability of nuclear electricity
generation as an acid gas reduction alternative in the region.
Renewable technologies include hydroelectric facilities, wind
power generation, solar power generation, and various types of combustion
facilities fueled with biomass. Hydroelectric vary in size from the
fraction of a kilowatt to hundreds of kilowatts for "micro" and
"mini" units, to huge facilities with capacities of many gigawatts.
Advantages of hydroelectric technology include its use of a "free"
local resource (low operating costs), its lack emissions of acid gases and
other air pollutants, the long life of hydro installations, and the extensive
use of local materials in the construction of hydro impoundments (dams).
Disadvantages of hydroelectric plants include relatively high capital costs,
long lead times for design and construction, potential disruption of water
resources, potential fluctuations in output from year to year and season
to season due to variations in river flow, and potentially large use of
land.
Solar power plants on the utility scale have thus far been limited to a
number of demonstration units, mostly in developing countries. Solar power
plants for utility use include solar photovoltaic and solar thermal designs.
Solar photovoltaic devices have been fabricated from a number of
different substances and have been used in progressively larger applications
for over 30 years. Solar photovoltaic panels-arrays of photovoltaic "cells"-currently
serve markets ranging from portable electronic devices (with only a few
square centimeters of cells) to multi-megawatt power plants with thousands
of square meters of panels. The advantages of solar photovoltaic systems
include no-cost fuel; applicability to a wide range of different applications
(including rural electrification); low maintenance requirements; portability
to other sites; opportunity for local input in assembling the solar modules
and support structures, and for local employment in operations and maintenance;
and no acid gas emissions. The disadvantages of the technology include high
costs for the photovoltaic cells themselves, and often for the support structures
and wiring that complete the solar modules;r the diurnal and
intermittent (in some locations) nature of the solar resource; and the need
for storage of electric energy for use when the sun is not shining (thus
the dependence of photovoltaic systems performance on the performance of
storage devices, such as batteries).
Solar thermal-electric systems come in several types and sizes. The main
varieties of systems are16
the parabolic trough, the central
receiver type, and the parabolic dish type.s Both the parabolic trough receiver
and the central receiver solar-thermal systems are generally thought of
as options for utility-scale (grid connected) systems. Like photovoltaic
systems, solar thermal systems generally produce no acid gases.
The conditions for solar energy development in the countries of Northeast
Asia are not as good as in other regions, due to high population densities
and sometimes unfavorable weather patterns, but the solar electric technologies
listed above could have an impact in many areas of the region.
The use of wind-powered devices to generate electricity has been increasing
dramatically in recent years in both developed and developing nations. Accelerated
adoption of the technology (and increased production of wind-power systems)
has translated into improved reliability and lower unit capital costs. Commercially
available wind turbines for electricity generation range in size from fractions
of a kilowatt to nearly the megawatt range; the most common sizes are tens
to hundreds of kilowatts.17
The advantages of wind power include
use of a "no-cost" local energy source; relatively low maintenance
requirements; potential for land used for wind power to be used for other
purposes concurrently (farming or raising livestock, for example); and relatively
few environmental impacts (including no acid gas emissions). The disadvantages
of wind power stem mostly from the intermittent nature of the wind resource,t
and include the difficulty and cost of assessing the wind resource at a
given site; limited experience in most areas in the maintenance of wind
machines; the capricious nature of the wind, which translates into variable
output at any given time in most locations, even if annual average output
is reliable; the need, due to the varying nature of the electricity output
of wind power systems, for either energy storage of some type (see below)
or back-up power systems; and the high (relative to some conventional power
generation options) capital costs of the technology. A number of areas in
Northeast Asia region have very promising wind regimes, including the Gobi
desert area of China and Mongolia.
As biomass fuels typically have minimal sulfur content, their use in power
plants of conventional or advanced types yields relatively little SOx,
although NOx emissions still occur. One promising alternative
for biomass-fired electricity generation is the biomass integrated-gasifier/gas
turbine-combined cycle (BIG/GT-CC) and related technologies. These systems
can have efficiencies of 33 to over 40 percent, and can use local and waste
fuels. BIG/GT-CC systems have relatively low capital costs, and provide
baseload capacity in unit sizes less than 100 megawatts.18
The technology for these systems is now in the commercialization phase.
Although electricity generation from biomass wastes could play a significant
role in Northeast Asia (to the extent that these wastes are not recycled
or used as a soil amendment already), significant development of generation
based on "energy crops" in the region is probably unlikely in
the near-term. High population densities in the region (as well as warsu
and other environmental disturbances) have burdened the agricultural and
forest resources of most of the countries of the region to the extent that
little suitable land for biomass fuel plantations is likely to be available
in the next two decades or so.v
Table 2-3: Representative Cost Estimates for Selected Central and Off-Grid
Power Generation Facilitiesw
2.3.2. Fuel-Switching Options for the Industrial Sector
Opportunities for fuel-switching in the industrial sector include conversion
of industrial coal-fired boilers and furnaces to natural gas (or promotion
of gas-fired equipment over coal-fired equipment for new installations),
use of natural gas or electricity in place of coal for specific industrial
processes, and greater use of waste product-fuels (for example, in the pulp
and paper industry). General use of natural gas in industrial boilers and
furnaces in place of coal virtually eliminates SOx emissions.
Converting existing combustion equipment from coal to natural gas is generally
relatively inexpensive, and new gas boilers are less expensive (and typically
smaller in size) than new coal boilers of the same capacity. Gas use in
the sector, however, is constrained by the cost and infrastructural hurdles
of supplying gas that were described above in the context of fuel-switching
alternatives for electricity generation.
There are a large number of industrial processes where gas and electricity
can substitute for coal or other fuels. Examples of the latter include:
- Substitution of electric arc furnaces for open-hearth furnaces in
the iron and steel subsector;
- Use of all-electric kilns in cement manufacturing; and
- Microwave drying of products in the pulp and paper industry.19
Of course substitution of electricity for coal, while reducing local emissions
of SOx and other pollutants, is only likely to result in reductions
in acid gas emissions on the national and regional levels if the electricity
used is generated with low or no emissions of acid gases.
2.3.3. Fuel-Switching Options for the Commercial/Institutional
and Domestic Sectors
As in the industrial sector, the primary fuel-switching options for applications
in the commercial/institutional and residential sectors in Northeast Asia
are conversion of coal-fired boilers, furnaces, and appliances (including
cookstoves and space heaters) to natural gas or electricity. Reduction of
SOx emissions can also be achieved by replacing coal-fired cookstoves
with stoves burning kerosene or liquid petroleum gas (LPG). The latter are
typically more efficient than coal stoves, and produce reduced quantities
of particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and other important local pollutants.
The applicability of the residential-sector options, however, depend on
the availability and price of the fuel and combustion technology, as well
as on the cultural factors such as cooking preferences.
2.3.4. Fuel-Switching Options for the Transport Sector
Fuel-switching options for the transport sector include continuing the transition
(in China and North Korea) from coal-steam to diesel and electric trains
and water vessels. For the road passenger and freight transport subsectors,
fuel-switching options include switching to compressed natural gas and electric
vehicles, or modifying engines to use biofuels (ethanol and methanol derived
from biomass, or oils from oilseed crops, for example). The vehicles types
for which conversions will provide the greatest reduction in SOx
emissions will be those that a) now use high-sulfur diesel fuel, and b)
have high annual fuel use-namely long-haul trucks and buses. Reductions
in NOx emissions through use of alternative transport fuels will
generally depend on the particular engine designs compared.
2.4. Energy Efficiency Technologies and Measures
A final class of methods for reducing acid gas emissions are energy efficiency
technologies and measures. This class covers a wide range of technologies
spanning all of the sectors. Energy efficiency technologies reduce acid
gas emissions by reducing the amount of fuel-coal, oil, gas, electricity,
or biomass-needed to provide a specific energy service. When the amount
of fuel required is reduced, emissions of SOx and NOx
are reduced at least proportionately. Some examples of these technologies
and measures-organized by the sectors to which they apply-are listed here.
Many more measures are listed in many different compendia and databases,
including publications by the World Energy Council, the World Bank, the
IPCC, IIASA, IEA/OECD, the California Energy Commission, and others.20
The reader is referred to these sources for more detailed descriptions and
cost information on particular technologies.
2.4.1. Energy Efficiency Technologies for the Utility
Sector
Energy-efficiency technologies for the utility sector include electricity
generation options with high conversion efficiencies, transmission and distribution
improvements, and cogeneration. Two of the most attractive electricity generation
technologies available now (or shortly) are coal-fired integrated gasification-combined
cycle (IGCC) and gas- or oil-fired combined-cycle plants. These options
have been described previously. Even higher conversion efficiencies are
promised by fuel cell technologies. Fuel cells, which convert chemical
energy to electrical energy without combustion, can operate on gaseous fuels
(including natural gas, hydrogen, and producer gas from coal or biomass).
Prototype fuel cell modules have been built that are approaching utility
scale. Development of this technology bears watching, however, as fuel cells
promise low emissions of NOx and other pollutants, compact size, and very
high energy efficiencies of energy conversion.y
Reductions in electricity transmission and distribution (T&D)
losses can help to provide more electricity without increasing fuel consumption.
These measures are particularly applicable in China and especially in North
Korea, where the T&D system has many serious problems and losses are
high21, z
Electricity T&D improvements would include better
system control facilities, improved transformers, the addition of capacitance
to the system, and other measures to improve power factors and reduce voltage
fluctuations.22
Cogeneration of heat and power is used in the utility sector in
many countries, and has a long history. Heat is distributed for use as process
heat in industries and/or for district heating of homes and other buildings.
This is likely to be highly economic in many of the countries of Northeast
Asia, where power stations are often close to cities, population densities
are high, and wintertime space heating needs are significant.
2.4.2. Energy-efficiency Options for the Industrial
Sector
The options for reducing energy consumption-and related emissions of acid
gases-in the industrial sector are many and varied. Options for specific
industrial subsectors are listed below, along with a list of more generic
improvements useful in many different types of industries.
Specific options for the Iron and Steel industry include the continued
replacement of open-hearth furnaces with basic oxygen furnaces (which can
save 1 to 3 GJ per tonne of steel-about 5 to 15 percent relative to current
OECD practice); increasing the use of scrap steel; the use of power recovery
turbines on blast furnaces; the use of continuous casting of steel products
(as opposed to ingot casting, in which steel ingots must be re-melted to
produce products in their final form), and rolling of steel before it has
cooled.
Options for the Chemicals manufacturing industries include the
use of improved catalysts for key types of chemical reaction; improvements
in distillation equipment; improvements in gas turbine efficiency; expanded
process integration to conserve heat generated during reactions; insulating
product pipelines to reduce heat losses, and use of membrane technologies
for separation of reactants.
In the Refining industry (which will become increasingly important
as China's consumption of petroleum fuels increases), energy efficiency
options include pre-heating of crude oil feedstocks; use of reflux-overhead
vapor compression; use of mechanical vacuum pumps; integration of heat use
between distillation units; and improved catalysts.
In the Pulp and Paper subsector, options include continuous pulp
digesters, alternative chemical and chemi-mechanical pulping processes,
and alcohol-based solvent pulping; oxygen or ozone bleaching and delignification;
chemical recovery, including freeze concentration or gasification of black
liquor; wet-pressing of paper products, high-consistency forming, impulse
drying, and microwave drying.
The Cement industry is an important subsector for many of the economies
of Northeast Asia. Efficiency options here include measures to improve the
efficiency of materials preparation such as waste-heat drying, differential
grinding of limestone and clay, fluidized-bed drying with low-grade fuels;
kiln combustion system improvements and modifications to reduce heat loss,
the use of waste heat from product coolers, and the use of fluidized-bed
kilns and all-electric or hybrid kilns; the blending cements so as to reduce
the energy required for production; and modified product grinding equipment,
including better control of particle size (for example, high-efficiency
air classifiers.23
Modifications in the way that buildings
and other structures are constructed could save on use and wastage of cement
and steel (as well as making the buildings themselves more efficient).
Generic options important in many (if not most) industrial subsectors
in Northeast Asia include:
- The use of heat recovery (in many different sub-processes) for steam
generation, and pre-heating of combustion air, including the use of ceramic
recuperators
- Fuel-switching to natural gas (where available)
- Improved industrial boilers and furnaces, including improved fuel
pre-treatment, using better refractory materials (special ceramics used
as, for example, furnace linings) that last longer and have better insulating
properties, computerized boiler control, and natural gas pulse-combustion
boilers
- Modifications to reduce friction in piping, valves, and conveyance
systems
- Using harder, longer lasting materials in cutting and grinding applications.
- Expanded use of cogeneration of heat and power
- High-efficiency electric motors and electronic adjustable-speed drive
systems
- High-efficiency lighting systems
- Computerized process optimization, control, energy management, and
environmental management (that is, pollution emission sensing and control)
systems
- Good housekeeping and minimization of materials waste, including pre-
and post-consumer recycling of raw materials.
2.4.3. Commercial/Public/Institutional and Domestic
Sector Options
Options for improving energy efficiency in the commercial/public/institutional
sectors of the countries of Northeast Asia primarily address energy use
in buildings. Options for the reduction of coal, gas, and electricity use
include:
- Boiler and furnace improvements, including hardware modifications
such as burner upgrading (or replacement) and addition of control systems,
and "human" measures such as improved operator training to increase
the efficiency of operation and maintenance.
- High-efficiency lighting systems, including high-efficiency
fluorescent and compact fluorescent bulbs, reflectors, and ballasts.
- The use of high-efficiency air conditioning equipment, including
improved motors and drive systems (applicable to many other types
of equipment as well), and improved compressors.aa
- Building envelope improvements such as improved insulation,
weatherstripping, and windows.
- The use of cogeneration for larger institutional users such
as hospitals and colleges.
- Higher-efficiency domestic appliances, including refrigerators,
room air conditioners, and clothes washers.24
2.4.4. Energy Efficiency Options in the Transport Sector
The transport sector is likely to command much larger shares of the national
energy budget in China and North Korea as those countries, develop, following
the pattern of Japan, South Korea, and Chinese Taipei. Energy-efficiency
options in the transport sector can be separated into personal passenger
transport efficiency options, mass transit efficiency improvements, freight
transport efficiency options, and "mode-shifting".
For personal passenger transport, a wide variety of engine and transmission
modifications, modifications to reduce vehicle weight, and changes to reduce
air and rolling friction have been proposed25
, 26.
These changes
have made it possible to reduce the energy intensity of automobiles by a
factor of two or more compared to present conditions.bb
The
impact of these types of technologies could be huge in Northeast Asia, due
primarily to the explosive growth in the Chinese transport sector. China's
stock of small passenger vehicles (not including motorcycles) increased
more than two-fold between 1987 and 1992. If that rate of growth is sustained,
there could be 100 million small passenger vehicles in China in 20 years-and
even at that rate China would have significantly fewer vehicles per capita
than South Korea does today,cc
and less than a fifth as many
vehicles per capita as are currently in the United States. Improving the
energy efficiency of the average Chinese vehicle by 50 percent (by adopting
technologies for high efficiency vehicles now, as the Chinese auto industry
builds productive capacity) would translate into a huge reduction in future
energy use and NOx emissions. Assuming 100 million passenger vehicles, 15,000
km per vehicle/year, and a decrease in energy intensity from the present
10 (or so) liters per 100 km to 5 liters per 100 km yields a savings in
energy consumption of roughly 100 million tonnes of oil per year. (By way
of comparison, China's total oil production in 1994 was slightly under 150
million tonnes.) This example is certainly not intended to suggest that
China will, can, or should increase its passenger car fleet in this way;
it is intended only to point out the potential for energy efficiency improvements
in the sector, particularly if current trends hold.
For mass transit of passengers, substantial efficiency improvements in bus
engines and transmissions are possible. Traffic flow modifications, such
as dedicated bus lanes, are ways of increasing the efficiency of bus transit
without changing equipment. Rail transport efficiencies can be increased
by improving maintenance of trains and tracks (including wheel lubrication),
eliminating reducing constrictions to traffic flow ("bottlenecks")
where trains must slow down or stop outside of stations, using higher-horsepower
engines, optimizing train size and traffic flow (including computer control).27
Opportunities for rail sector improvements that focus on infrastructure
are large in both China and North Korea, both of which have rail systems
that are currently overburdened. These improvements in rail efficiency are
also applicable to rail freight transport systems.
Freight transport by road can be made more efficient through a number of
different measures, including engine-drivetrain modificationsdd
(some of which are also applicable to agricultural-sector equipment), improved
aerodynamics, construction of improved roads,ee
optimizing
the distribution of truck sizes (tonnes of freight capacity per unit) in
the truck fleets of China and North Korea, moving toward use of more diesel
and less gasoline trucks (China), and moving freight via rail rather than
road wherever practical. Improving the octane rating (a measure of fuel
quality) of gasoline produced by refineries is another method of reducing
fuel consumption by cars and trucks.
A final category of transportation energy efficiency measures considered
here is the broad category of mode-shifting. Mode-shifting includes policies
that encourage the development of certain transport subsectors-such as urban
and inter-city mass transit by train and bus-while discouraging other options
such as low-occupancy use of passenger cars. Other possibilities for countries
in which urban and peri-urban areas are rapidly developing include planning
of neighborhoods and transit systems so as to maximize convenience for pedestrian
and bicycle traffic, as well as access to efficient mass-transit systems.
3. Comparison of Technologies-Estimated Cost-Effectiveness
for Emissions Reduction
The comparison of the cost-effectiveness of the sometimes vastly different
technologies for reducing acid gas emissions discussed in the previous section
is subject to (at least) two methodological difficulties. First, technologies
presented above are geared to provide different types of energy services,
and thus cannot be compared side-by-side. Second, substantial uncertainties
exist in many of the parameters that must be used to evaluate the technologies,
including variations in current cost and performance across applications
in different locations (and with different fuels), and in terms of future
trends in cost and performance. The general approach adopted here is to
evaluate each measure or type of measure relative to some reference technology
that provides that same energy service-producing a kilowatt-hour of power,
manufacturing a tonne of steel, cooking a meal, or moving a tonne of freight
from one place to another. The difference in cost between the acid gas reduction
technology or measure and the reference technology is then divided by the
difference in SOx or NOx emissions between the two alternatives to provide
a measure (albeit an incomplete one) of the cost-effectiveness of acid gas
reduction. For the sake of simplicity, the attempt here is to focus on a
small set of technologies and measures applicable to China, using China-specific
costs and efficiencies (where available) for reference technologies and
measures, and Chinese fuel prices and fuel specifications, including sulfur
content. The assumptions used in preparing these estimates, plus the results
of sensitivity analyses (in addition to those presented below) are contained
in detail in Annex 2 to this paper; some key assumptions are listed below.
3.1. Technologies Compared, and Key Assumptions
In estimating the cost per unit of acid gas emissions reduced or avoided,
a selection of technologies were chosen in each of five categories: "End-of-pipe"
SOx and NOx emissions controls, burner modifications,
coal cleaning and refinery upgrades, fuel-switching alternatives, and energy-efficiency
measures. 1990 US dollars were used as the currency unit throughout, and
real discount rates of 10 percent (utility and industrial sectors) and 12
percent (other sectors) were used to annualize capital costs. In most instances,
average coal prices were assumed to be approximately $1.33 per GJ (although
Chinese coal prices vary significantly from place to place, sector to sector,
and over time), and the base cost of liquefied natural gas was assumed to
be $4.00 per GJ at the dock. The average sulfur content of Chinese coal,
estimated from RAINS-Asia results (and thus a weighted average over all
Chinese coal use) was taken to be 1.04 percent.
3.2. Methods of Comparison
The evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of these technologies for acid
gas emissions reduction has necessarily involved a considerable number of
assumption. These are detailed in the workpapers provided as Annex 2. In
some cases, sensitivity analyses have been performed to demonstrate the
impact of changes in key and uncertain parameters. Some of the key approaches
used for the five groups of technologies were as follows:
- For "End-of-pipe" technologies, most of the options
listed in Section 2.1.1 were compared, in retrofit and new applications,
with existing and new (respectively) coal plants without SOx
and/or NOx controls. New coal plants were assumed to have a net
heat rate (after accounting for in-plant use of electricity) of 10.29 MJ/kWh,
corresponding to an efficiency of about 35 percent. Where a range of cost
or performance estimates were used, a mid-range value was typically chosen.
The one transport sector technology addressed, 3-way catalytic converters,
was evaluated relative to a similar vehicle without a converter.
- All of the technologies in the burner modification category
were applied to utility coal combustion, relative to standard existing or
new coal plants.
- The options in the fuel improvement group include coal cleaning-evaluated
at a range of costs per tonne processed and removal efficiencies-and several
low-sulfur coal and petroleum fuel options. Prices and related costs per
tonne of sulfur removed for the low-sulfur fuels relative to higher-sulfur
varieties were taken from the database for the RAIN-Asia modeling system.
- The fuel-switching options considered include several renewable
and non-renewable electric utility generation options-all evaluated relative
to a standard new coal plant-and switching from coal-fired domestic cooking
stoves to gas-fired stoves, with pipeline LNG as the fuel.
- Finally, a number of different energy-efficiency options
were evaluated for the utility, industrial, commercial/public/institutional
(buildings) and domestic sectors, and the transport sector. Here each option
was evaluate relative to either an existing technology to be retrofitted
(utility boilers, for example) or a standard new technology to be improved
upon (such as automobiles).
In preparing the comparisons, an attempt was made to evaluate the acid gas
control or reduction technology on an even footing with reference alternative
technologies. This included (for example) recognizing that some of the technologies
save fuel, or require more fuel, then the baseline technologies against
which they were measured, and accounting for this difference in fuel use
as a credit or cost to be factored in with differential capital, O&M,
and other costs.
3.3. Cost-Effectiveness Results
The acid gas emissions reduction measures presented above are, as stressed
previously, only examples of the many different options theoretically available
to China and to other countries in Northeast Asia. For energy-efficiency
options in particular, this analysis has only barely touch the "tip
of the iceberg" of the many options available. While many of the comparisons
necessarily are over-simplified, they serve to indicate the pattern of emissions
reduction costs encountered among the various classes of measures.
Table 3-1 presents the results of the cost-effectiveness evaluations detailed
in Annex 2. Three yardsticks of cost-effectiveness are used. The first two,
respectively, are simply the relative net cost of emissions reduction expressed
as dollars per tonne of SOx and NOx. These costs are
not additive; they can be thought of as the costs one would want to compare
if one were interested in reduction of sulfur oxides or nitrogen oxides
separately. These metrics are less adequate if one is interested in aggregate
acid gas emissions reduction, and wishes to compare across types of options
suitable for reducing SOx emissions, NOx emissions,
or both. The right-hand column of Table 3-1 represents an attempt to evaluate
reduction of the two emissions as a single index. Taking into account the
relative equivalents of acid formed when SOx and NOx
react with water (two and one per molecule, respectively), plus the relative
molecular weights of SOx and NOx, the index is expressed
in terms of dollars per thousand moles (kmol) of acid precursor emitted.
This index is far from perfect, in large part because SOx and
NOx do not behave identically in the atmosphere.ff
Nonetheless,
it is one way of evaluating technologies that substantially reduce the emissions
of both species-energy-efficiency technologies, for example-next to technologies
that remove primarily one of the two acid gases.
TABLE 3-1
3.4. Discussion of Results
As shown in Table 3-1, the measures evaluated span a wide range of emissions
reduction costs, with values for SOx reduction in the range of
-$4,400 to +$5,000 per tonne, NOx reduction costs of -$6,300
to +$7,500 per tonne, and overall reduction in the range from -$72 to +$108
per kmol acid equivalent.gg
Here, a negative control cost implies
(since all measures result in emissions reduction) that the net cost of
applying the measure is negative, that is, applying the measure results
in a cost savings even before its environmental benefits are considered.
Comparing results between categories of measures, end-of-pipe controls tend
to be less cost-effective than burner modifications or coal cleaning, but
refinery upgrades to reduce the sulfur content of vehicle fuels are relatively
expensive. Switching to gas or to wind-generated power results in acid gas
emissions reductions that are similar in cost per kmol of acid to burner
modifications. Energy efficiency options provide the most cost-effective
means of reducing acid gas emissions, with many of the examples shown having
low or negative costs of emissions reduction per unit acid gas. This is
particularly true if a credit for avoided generation capacity (that is,
for avoided capital and fixed operating and maintenance costs) is provided
for those measures that save electricity, in addition to the credit for
avoided fuel use in electricity generation.
Several caveats should be kept in mind when reviewing the results above
and in Annex 2:
- The analysis as shown depends on a number of assumptions, many taken
from analysis done by other workers-where possible, including cost information
from China-based analyses-but some no better than rough estimates. In some
instances, the results of the analysis are quite sensitive to relatively
small changes in input parameters. Many of these analyses could be refined
with additional local data from the countries in Northeast Asia.
- Not all of the benefits, and probably not all of the costs, of some
options have been captured. Many changes in industrial processes have the
effect of reducing SOx and/or NOx emissions, but may
be undertaken for reasons to do with enhanced profitability, reduced material
use, meeting environmental standards for other effluents, or other reasons.
For example, moving to continuous casting in steel-making dramatically improves
the value of the product in addition to saving energy. This added value
is not, however included in the cost calculation. Similarly, other environmental
benefits (greenhouse gas reduction, for example) accrue to some of the technologies
but are not captured in the analysis, while others (for example, FGD systems)
have environmental costs (such as solid waste disposal) that have not been
rigorously included.
- Some of the technical measures-boiler efficiency improvements and
automotive engine improvements are cases in point-will likely reduce emissions
(NOx, especially) by a fraction greater than the fraction of
fuel saved simply by allowing better control of combustion.
- In many cases the costs and benefits, as well as important parameters
of the analysis such as fuel prices and fuel sulfur content, will vary considerably
from place to place and application to application. An analysis like this
can only hope to indicate general trends and patterns-location-specific
project analyses are required to determine an optimal investment plan for
acid gas emissions reduction.
- Similarly, this analysis has not attempted to evaluate the potential
of measures such as urban and suburban planning to minimize the need for
transport, materials recycling, and reduction of materials use and waste
in manufacturing. Each of these (and many other similar measures) would
reduce acid gas emissions and address numerous other environmental problems
at the same time.
- The apparent attractiveness of energy-efficiency measures from a cost-of-emissions-reduction
perspective was noted earlier. Why not, then, focus on these measures to
the exclusion of other options? One key reason not to exclude other options,
including burner modification and end-of-pipe control, has to do with the
likely rapid future growth of the economies of the region, particularly
China, South Korea, and potentially North Korea. This growth means that
reduction in energy use through efficiency measures may slow, but will likely
not stop, the growth in the need for new energy infrastructure, including
power plants, and as a consequence reductions in energy use will not necessarily
mean that older, dirtier plants run less or are retired. An effort to reduce
emissions from existing facilities, as well as building new facilities to
higher environmental standards, is therefore in order.
- Conversely, however, only a fraction of the SOx and NOx
produced in the region comes from the "Large Point Source" group
of facilities that are arguably best suited to end-of-pipe emissions control.
This means that an effective effort to reduce acid gas emissions in the
region must focus not only on these "big ticket" facilities, both
existing and new, but also on the much smaller-sized equipment in the industrial,
commercial, and transport sectors that produce, and will continue to produce,
the lion's share of acid gas emissions.
4. Promising Areas and Initiatives for US-Japan and
Regional Collaboration
Coal cleaning, burner modifications, switching to natural gas and wind power
generation, and (particularly) energy efficiency improvements represent
attractive options for the countries of the region to reduce acid gas emissions.
As acid rain is a regional problem in Northeast Asia-and is likely to become
an increasingly important concern-regional coordination and support will
play an important role in catalyzing the uptake of acid rain reduction measures.
4.1. Other Considerations in Choosing Acid Gas Emissions
Reduction Measures
Before considering regional initiatives to aid in reducing acid gas emissions,
it is necessary to review some of the practical considerations that can
limit the uptake of certain measures and technologies by the countries of
the region. These include:
- Are suppliers and vendors of the technology available in all of the
countries of the region? For example, certain technologies may not be available
to North Korea due to its current political isolation.
- Which measures are suitable for local manufacture, particularly in
China and North Korea? Which will require inputs from the more developed
nations of the region (and elsewhere) for the foreseeable future?
- Which technologies require a high foreign exchange input, and where
could those funds come from in countries strapped for hard currency?
- Which technologies and measures will be socially acceptable, and fit
within existing regulations and economic patterns?
- Some technologies may not be applicable in some areas due to resource
or land-use constraints.
4.2. Potential Types of Regional Collaboration
There are a number of generic strategies that could be promoted and/or facilitated
by the regional international community to help to implement some of the
emissions reduction options described in this paper. These strategies could
includehh
(but are certainly not limited to):
- Provide Information and General Training to Government Officials.
Getting initiatives such as industrial energy efficiency, and utility
boiler emissions control programs, and fuel switching/renewable energy initiatives
off the ground in the countries of the region (again, particularly China
and North Korea) will be impossible without top officials embracing the
concept. Consequently, the advantages and local/international opportunities
provided by the measures and technologies covered here must be presented
to top officials in a manner that is both forceful and forthright.
- Provide Specific Information and Training to Local Actors.
Training of a very specific and practical nature must be provided to personnel
at the local level. Examples here are factory energy plant managers, boiler
operators in residential and commercial buildings, power plant and heating
system operators, and new job classifications such as energy-efficiency
and pollution control equipment installers, energy auditors, and environmental
officials.
- Encourage the Implementation and Enforcement of Energy and Environmental
Standards. Although the countries of Northeast Asia uniformly have
general policies supporting energy efficiency and environmental sustainability,
not all have well-defined, quantitative set of standards in place to codify
these general policies. Where standards exist, furthermore, they may not
be stringent enough to satisfy regional needs for acid gas emissions reduction.
Once standards are set, it will be necessary to create the capability to
enforce them by recruiting and training enforcement personnel and supplying
them with the tools necessary to do their job (testing equipment and adequately
equipped labs, for example) and the high-level administrative support needed
for credible implementation of sanctions. Setting up these regulations and
support structures is an area where international assistance may be valuable
in some instance.
- Establish Programs of Grants and Concessional Loans. Experience
in China has shown that such a program in itself can have a significant
positive impact in overall sectoral energy efficiency.28
The
benefits of institutionalizing support for pollution control and energy
efficiency, however, would go beyond those obtained through the various
individual projects themselves. Creating government agencies or corporations
with their own budgets would signal a strong commitment to acid gas emissions
reduction on the part of the government, and would create a constituency
within official circles for promoting environmental.ii
Moreover,
by establishing a pool of funds for which government ministries, sectors,
and/or individual enterprises could compete, it would stimulate at all levels
awareness of the potential, methods, and technologies for reducing acid
gas emissions.
- Modify Existing Incentives for Energy Efficiency and Pollution
Prevention. Depending on the structure of a country's economy, it may
be possible to implement administrative measures (in non- or semi-market
economies) or efficiency regulations and inducements (in market economies)
that will help to spur the incorporation of appropriate technologies in
new and existing infrastructure.
- Promote Joint Ventures and Licensing Agreements. The growth
in the need for pollution control and energy-efficiency equipment, could
be met by domestic production through joint ventures and licensing agreements
between governmental or private organizations in China and North Korea and
foreign firms (especially, for Northeast Asia, South Korea, Japan, and the
U.S.) with the necessary expertise to produce the needed equipment. For
example, a wide variety of efficient industrial equipment and controls--including
adjustable speed drives, higher-efficiency electric motors, and improved
industrial boilers--have already been introduced to China through commercial
channels and are being or will be manufactured there.
4.3. Specific United States-Japan and Regional Initiatives
Useful in Starting Collaborations to Reduce Regional Emissions
A variety of opportunities exist for the United States and Japan to contribute
to the reduction of regional acid gas emissions in the ways described above
(and others). In many cases, existing bilateral or multi-lateral programs
or initiatives could be built upon and strengthened. Some potential starting
points for United States-Japan and regional collaboration in reducing acid
gas emissions in Northeast Asia might include:
- Create a clearinghouse for summary and detailed information on
acid gas reduction measures. Access to up-to-date information on the
types of technologies and measures are available for acid gas reduction
(including their costs, benefits, advantages, and disadvantages), how to
contact technology suppliers, and existing experience in the region with
various measures and technologies would help to facilitate the implementation
of acid gas reduction measures. The United States and Japan (as well as
other regional governments) could support the formation of such a clearinghouse,
perhaps under the structure already set up by the APEC Energy Working Group
for energy modeling activities. This effort should build on the substantial
body of information already available (and noted previously in this document).
The clearinghouse could also provide support, software, and guidance for
more detailed country- (or sub-country) level assessments of opportunities
for acid gas reduction measures. The clearinghouse would thus play a role
in helping to provide information to decisionmakers and local actors, as
well as in catalyzing technology transfer and the formation of joint ventures.
- Create a trade liaison to promote the transfer of appropriate
technologies. The United States and Japan could set up a specific trade
office designed to facilitate the process of linking firms with emissions
reduction technologies to sell or license with firms and other organizations
in the region that need the technologies. The liaison office could help
to provide contact information, translation, dispute mediation, and assistance
in obtaining financing to potential trading partners, thus expediting the
process of forging joint ventures and licensing arrangements.
- Promote and sponsor study tours and in-country training activities.
The United States and Japan could sponsor study tours by appropriate Chinese
and North Korean officials and industrial representatives for the purpose
of learning methods of environmental management and acid gas emissions reduction.
This should be augmented by in-country training activities involving local
actors (ideally, those involved in day-to-day environmental management decisionmaking)
and regional and international experts.
- Promote and assist in applications that demonstrate promising
technologies. This would include providing equipment and expertise
to do pre- and post-project monitoring of acid gas emissions. Assisting
in technology demonstration projects would help to open the doors for technology
transfer arrangements and to develop technical and regulatory expertise
in the host country. Such assistance could also include providing seed money
for grant and loan programs operated primarily by the host country.
- Help to fund and organize regulatory infrastructure in China and
North Korea. The United States and Japan could help to fund, through
grants and loans, the establishment and equipping of laboratories and other
facilities necessary for the enforcement of environmental and energy-efficiency
regulations, including regulations on acid gas emissions. This is a way
of assuring that the regulatory infrastructure (including rule-making, monitoring,
and enforcement) is in place to move forward with acid gas emissions reduction
in China and the DPRK.
4.4. Technology Transfer Issues
As indicated throughout this paper, technologies do exist that, if widely
and promptly applied in Northeast Asia, could go a long way toward reducing
emissions of acid gases (and their subsequent impacts) in the region. Additional
technologies are in the demonstration and commercialization phase. Transferring
these technologies to the countries that need them in a manner that is both
affordable and agreeable to all parties will likely be the limiting step
in their adoption. In technology transfer, issues such as the political
isolation of North Korea from potential trading partners (notably the United
States and South Korea), technology patent conflicts between industrialized
nations and China, and the practice of transferring sub-optimal or outdated
technologiesjj
could, if not resolved, slow down the rate at
which appropriate technologies are transferred. Cooperation between the
United States, Japan, and the other countries of the region to resolve these
sorts of issues will help to spur the implementation of acid gas emissions
reduction measures.
In order for technology transfer to be effective on an ongoing basis, care
must be taken to supply not only the "hardware"-provide and install
the technology products, but also the human "software" that will
assure that the technologies transferred continue to provide acid gas reductions
at an optimal level for years to come. This means that any technology transfer
arrangement must include a strong component of training of local actors
(as noted above), including plant operators, installers, maintenance personnel,
and regulatory personnel. These people must also be provided, on an ongoing
basis, with sufficient tools, materials, information, and access to advanced
training to allow them to use the technologies properly and to adapt and
improve them to suit local conditions. Technology transfer projects in Northeast
Asia should therefore explicitly include resources for initial and ongoing
training, as well as training of trainers,kk
to assure that
the technology transferred is used and spread in the host nation.
ENDNOTES
a. "pH" is a measure of the acidity (hydrogen ion concentration)
in a substance. The pH scale runs from 1 to 14, with 1 being very acid,
7 being neutral (the pH of pure water), and 14 being very alkaline. As the
pH scale is a logarithmic one, the acidity of a sample with pH 3 (for example),
is ten times that of a sample with a pH of 4. A normal pH for rainwater
is about 5.6.Return to Paper
b. "Area sources" denotes emissions of sulfur oxides from sources
other than power plants, large industrial facilities, and other "Large
point sources".Return to Paper
c. Figures in this table were drawn from Hayes and Zarsky (1995) and from
a table provided by David Streets of Argonne National Laboratory (see earlier
paper in this series). Both sources used results from the RAINS-Asia project.Return to Paper Return to Table 1.1
d. Zero values in this column for Mongolia and (particularly) for North Korea
probably reflects a lack of information about the sources of sulfur oxides
in those countries, rather than the actual lack of large point sources.
Large point sources, as defined for the RAINS-Asia model, are identified
large fossil-fuel-fired power plants and industrial sources that have electricity
generation capacity of greater than 500 MW, have fuel input capacity of
greater than 1500 MW (thermal), produce greater that 20,000 tonnes of SOx
per year, or produce greater than 5000 tonnes of NOx per year.Return to Paper Return to Table 1.1
e. The sensitivity of soils to acidification does not, of course, relay the
complete picture of where acid precipitation could cause the most damage.
Vegetation types, topography, and land use also play important roles. For
example, areas with soil types that are most sensitive to acidification
may not (and often do not) have vegetation that is similarly at risk.Return to Paper
f. Fabric filters for utility and large industrial use are usually an array
of bags, made out of fiberglass or other heat-stable material, mounted in
a metal housing through which exhaust gases pass. This technology is also
known as the "baghouse".Return to Paper
g. Electrostatic precipitation is a frequently-used technology for controlling
emissions of particulate matter. ESP units use electrically charged plates
to collect particulate matter from the flue gas.Return to Paper
h. Circumstances that would favor dispersed generation might include difficulty
in siting large power plants; deregulation of gas pricing (Japan, South
Korea, Chinese Taipei) leading (potentially) to lower gas prices for large
users; difficulty in securing reliable power supplies from the central grid
(China, North Korea); or difficulties in attracting private financing for
larger power projects (China).Return to Paper
i. NOx formation during combustion is a function of combustion temperature.
The higher the combustion temperature (generally), the more NOx will be
formed.Return to Paper
j. Coal gasification technologies, in fact, pre-date the use of natural gas:
piped gas used in homes and businesses in many US and European cities was
initially "coal gas".Return to Paper
k. Options for gas cleaning include cooling the gas before cleaning, which
reduces efficiency, and hot-gas cleaning, in which gas is cleaned at high
temperatures and pressures. The latter technology results in improved IGCC
efficiency, but is still in the early demonstration phase.Return to Paper
l. Control technologies, including the application of computerized control
and sensor systems, help to provide improved efficiency as well as optimal
environmental performance in industrial and utility boilers.Return to Paper
m. This is not likely, however, to be the case for China, at least in the
next few years. Although a number of investors have expressed interest in
financing and operating refineries in China, the Chinese government has
thus far restricted access by foreign firms to the Chinese retail market,
which has made refinery investment in China much less attractive to offshore
investors. In the next decade or so, however, China will have to face the
necessity of using a higher-sulfur crude slate (including more Middle East
imports) in its refineries (as domestic demand outstrips production, and
the availability of Asian low-sulfur crudes declines), and will at that
time likely need foreign assistance to build/modify and operate refineries
that can handle the more corrosive high-sulfur input. (David Fridley, Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory, personal communication.)Return to Paper
n. Dollars per gigajoule of fuel energy and per percent of sulfur reduced
compared to the original fuel. One gigajoule (GJ) is one billion (109) joules.
For purposes of comparison, 34 kg of (standard) coal or 31 liters of gasoline
have an energy content of about one gigajoule.Return to Table 2.2
o. Calculated (by the original source) assuming that 5 percent of fuel sulfur
remains in the ash after combustion.Return to Table 2.2
p. Oil-fired electricity generation technologies are already used in Northeast
Asia, but the working assumption here is that large-scale replacement of
coal-fired generation with new oil-fired generation is unlikely due (in
part) to the importance of using oil in other sectors.Return to Paper
q. As reactor fuel for the countries of Northeast Asia comes, to a large
extent, from other regions, SOx and NOx emissions from nuclear fuel cycle
activities actually taking place in the region are probably minimal.Return to Paper
r. For most developing countries, acquiring these components will involve
the use of foreign exchange funds, as most photovoltaic cells must be imported.
It should be noted that there is significant promise, however, for cost
reduction in solar photovoltaic cells, but attention must also be paid to
standardizing and reducing the costs of the "balance-of-system"
components, including the modules in which the cells are embedded, wiring
harnesses, electricity storage systems, support structures, and mounting
devices and techniques. This need was noted by the APEC Energy Data Expert
Group in Basic Guidelines for New Energy Introduction, prepared by the Japanese
Government for the "Council of Ministers for the Promotion of Comprehensive
Energy Measures", December 16, 1994.Return to Paper
s. One variant of this design with promise for rural electrification applications
uses a Stirling-cycle engine to convert heat into mechanical motion. Stirling
engines promise low maintenance, but the technology is not yet fully commercialized.Return to Paper
t. Grids that include wind generators must make provision for this variability
by providing either back-up generation resources (such as inexpensive gas-fired
resources) or energy storage of some type.Return to Paper
u. The forest resources of the Korean peninsula, for example, were substantially
destroyed before and during the Korean War.Return to Paper
v. Reforestation programs are active in many of the countries of the region,
including both China and North Korea, but wood from the reforested areas
is more likely to go toward the needs of the pulp and paper and construction
industries, rather than to fuel power plants.Return to Paper
w. Costs and efficiencies for most options from page 67 of Johansson, T.B.,
H. Kelly, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams, "Renewable Fuels and Electricity
for a Growing World: Defining and Achieving the Potential", Chapter
1 in Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity, edited by T.B.
Johansson, H. Kelly, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams, Island Press, Washington,
D.C., USA. Note that these costs represent a blend of currently available
technology and projections for technologies now in the commercialization
phase. As a consequence, the cost figures shown here should be taken as
representative estimates only. Costs for biomass gasifiers from Stassen,
H.E., (1995), Small-Scale Biomass Gasifiers for Heat and Power: A Global
Review, World Bank Technical Paper no. 296, Energy Series, The World Bank,
Washington, D.C., USA. Costs for diesels are from Ramani, K.V., (1993),
The Asian Development Bank's Approach to Rural Energy Development in the
1990's, Draft policy paper. Costs for hydro are from Shanker, A. and G.G.
Krause, "Decentralized Small Scale Power Systems", Chapter 4-3
in Saunier, G. editor (1992), Rural Electrification Guidebook For Asia and
the Pacific, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand, page 254,
and from Zhi Xiaozhang and Deng Bingli, Small "Hydro Power Development
for Rural Electrification in China", Chapter 5-5, same volume.Return to Paper
x. Estimates for the costs of nuclear generating facilities are from Page
18 of Wu Changlun et al, editors, China: Issues and Options in Greenhouse
Gas Control, Alternative Energy Supply Options to Substitute for Carbon
Intensive Fuels, Subreport Number 5. The World Bank, Industry and Energy
Division, Washington, D.C., USA. December 1994. Estimates of fixed O&M
costs are based on a range of different estimates provided. Variable O&M
costs are for fuel only (quoted in the source at 440 Yuan/kW, 4.7 Yuan/$,
and 6000 hours of operation per year.Return to Paper
y. For example, Ramani (Ramani, R.V., "Approach to Rural Electrification",
Chapter 5 in Rural Energy Planning: A Government-Enabled Market-Based Approach,
edited by K.V. Ramani, A.K.N. Reddy, and M.N. Islam, Asian and Pacific Development
Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 1995), page 178 cites the possibility of
57 percent overall efficiency for coal plants using integrated gasifier/fuel
cell systems by the year 2025.Return to Paper
z. DPRK estimates place transmission and distribution losses of electricity
at 16 percent of net generation (electricity leaving the power plant), although
this figure may well be low.Return to Paper
aa. The use of air conditioning in non-residential buildings is likely to
become much more important as development in China (in particular) continues.Return to Paper
bb. The environmental group Greenpeace recently commissioned the construction
of a car, based on a popular European subcompact model (the "Twingo"),
that achieved fuel consumption of between 3.26 and 3.75 liters per 100 km,
about half of the 6.7 liters per 100 km consumed by the original vehicle.Return to Paper
cc. The motor vehicle fleet in South Korea as of 1995 included just over
six million passenger cars and 1.65 million "private" (non-commercial)
trucks. With 44.85 million people as of 1995, this works out to about one
passenger car per 7.5 people, or about one car or truck per 6 persons (Korea
Energy Economics Institute (KEEI), Yearbook of Energy Statistics, 1996.
KEEI, Seoul, Korea, 1996.)Return to Paper
dd. The truck fleet in North Korea, for example, is based on a 2.5 tonne
truck of 1950's era Soviet design that is notoriously inefficient.Return to Paper
ee. Note, however that construction of improved roads is a double-edged sword,
as new superhighways-while allowing higher efficiencies--typically attract
traffic and spur increased use of motor vehicles.Return to Paper
ff. The residence time of NOx in the atmosphere, if it does not combine with
water, is substantially shorter than SOx-on the order of a day or less versus
several days. As a consequence, it may not be transported as far as SOx
in its dry form. In addition, ammonia (NH3) complicates the relative transport
and deposition of SOx and NOx through its interactions with both molecules,
and with water vapor and droplets. This may be important in Northeast Asia,
where industrial and agricultural sources of ammonia (rice paddies are an
example) are probably substantial. (Dr. Charles Blanchard, Envair, Albany,
CA, USA; personal communication).Return to Paper
gg. The very high cost per tonne sulfur oxide emissions shown for SCR technology
is omitted from this range. SCR removes a small amount of SOx
in the process of NOx emissions reduction.Return to Paper
hh. Adapted from Von Hippel and Hayes, 1995.Return to Paper
ii. Bringing together a large number of relatively small-scale demand side
projects under the umbrella of a single program, for example, may also go
some way towards mitigating the bias towards large-scale projects.Return to Paper
jj. The export of used engines and vehicles from Japan to other countries
in the region is an example here.Return to Paper
kk. That is, training of local experts who can then proceed to train their
compatriots in the use of the technology.Return to Paper
1. Hayes, P., and L. Zarsky, "Acid Rain in a Regional Context",
in Science and Technology Policy Institute and the United Nations University's
Joint Seminar on "The Role of Science and Technology in Promoting Environmentally
Sustainable Development. Science and Technology Policy Institute and The
United Nations University, Seoul, Republic of Korea, June, 1995.Return to Paper
2. Hamburger, J., China's Energy and Environment in the Roaring Nineties:
A Policy Primer. Prepared for the United States Environmental Protection
Agency and the United States Department of Energy by Pacific Northwest Laboratories
Advanced International Studies Unit, Washington D.C., USA. 1995.Return to Paper
3. Hayes and Zarsky, ibid.Return to Paper
4. Tavoulareas, E.S., and J-P. Charpentier, Clean Coal Technologies for Developing
Countries. World Bank Technical Paper Number 286, The World Bank, Washington
D.C., USA. 1995. This volume is the source for much of the information on
utility and industrial technologies presented in section 2.1 and 2.2.Return to Paper
5. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Alternative Control
Techniques Document-Nox Emissions From Cement Manufacturing. Emission Standards
Division, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and
Radiation, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina, USA. March 1994. Report number EPA-453/R-94-004.Return to Paper
6. From Table 3.3, Tavoulareas and Charpentier, 1995, ibid.Return to Paper
7. Based on figures in Chapter 3 of Tavoulareas and Charpentier, 1995, ibid.Return to Paper
8. Tavoulareas and Charpentier, 1995, ibid.Return to Paper
9. USEPA, 1994, ibid.Return to Paper
10. Tavoulareas and Charpentier, 1995, ibid, page 18.Return to Paper
11. California Energy Commission (CEC), Energy Technology Status Report,
Appendix B: Detailed End Use Technology Evaluations. California Energy Commission,
Sacramento, CA, USA. June, 1991.Return to Paper
12. Sinton, J., editor, China Energy Databook 1996 Edition, Revised January
1996. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley,
California, USA. LBL-32822.Rev.3. UC-900. 1996.Return to Paper
13. Tavoulareas and Charpentier, 1995, ibid, pages 13 - 15.Return to Paper
14. From D. Streets et al, "Emissions and Control", work in progress
in RAINS-Asia: An Assessment Model for Acid Rain in Asia. April, 1995. Table
4.14.Return to Paper
15. Ishitani, H., and T.B. Johansson, Editors, "Energy Supply Mitigation
Options". Chapter 19 in Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and
Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Published for
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by Cambridge University
Press, New York, NY, USA. 1996.Return to Paper
16. De Laquil, P., D. Kearney, M. Geyer, and R. Diver (1993), "Solar-Thermal
Electric Technology". In Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity,
edited by T.B. Johansson, H. Kelly, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams. Island
Press, Washington, D.C., USA. Chapter 5.Return to Paper
17. Moreno, R., Guidelines for Assessing Wind Energy Potential. World Bank
Industry and Energy Department Working Paper, Energy Series Paper No. 45.
Reprinted September 1991. The World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA.Return to Paper
18. Williams, R.H., and Larson, E.D. (1993), "Advanced Gasification-Based
Biomass Power Generation". In Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and
Electricity, edited by T.B. Johansson, H. Kelly, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H.
Williams. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA, and Williams, R.H. (1995),
Exploiting the Sugar Cane Cogeneration Potential in Quangxi Province. Center
for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ,
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Technology: An Assessment of Energy Use in Industry and Buildings. Report
and Case Studies. World Energy Council, London UK. 1995.Return to Paper
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Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Control, Energy Efficiency in China:
Technical and Sectoral Analysis, Subreport Number 3, and W.A. Ward and Li
Junfeng, Team Leaders, China: Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Control,
Energy Efficiency in China: Case Studies and Economic Analysis, Subreport
Number 4. The World Bank, Industry and Energy Division, Washington, D.C.,
USA. December 1994; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Inventory
of Technologies, Methods, and Practices for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse
Gases. Technical Appendix to Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations,
and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Published
for the IPCC by Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois, USA. 1996; Sch(fer,
A., L. Schrattenholzer, and S. Messner, Inventory of Greenhouse-Gas Measures:
Examples from the IIASA Technology Data Bank. International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. WP-92-85, November,
1992; Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/International
Energy Agency (OECD/IEA), Energy Technologies for Reducing Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases, Volumes 1 and 2. OECD/IEA, Paris, France, 1989; CEC, 1991,
ibid.; Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), Industrial Energy Efficiency,
OTA-E-560. Washington, D.C., UNITED STATES Government Printing Office. 1993.Return to Paper
21. Von Hippel, D., and P. Hayes, The Prospects for Energy Efficiency Improvements
in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea: Evaluating and Exploring the
Options. Nautilus Institute Report (Draft), Nautilus Institute for Security
and Sustainable Development, Berkeley, California, USA.Return to Paper
22. Sathaye, J., Economics of Improving Efficiency of China's Electricity
Supply and Use: Are Efficiency Investments Cost-effective? Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.
1992.Return to Paper
23. Inventory of Technologies, Methods, and Practices for Reducing Emissions
of Greenhouse Gases. Technical Appendix to Climate Change 1995: Impacts,
Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses.
Published for the IPCC by Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois, USA. 1996.Return to Paper
24. Nadel, S., J.A. Pietsch, and Shi Yingyi, The Chinese Room Air Conditioner
Market and Opportunities to Improve Energy Efficiency; and Nadel, S., The
Chinese Appliance Market: Current Status, Future Directions. The American
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1996.Return to Paper
25. Gordon, D., Steering a New Course: Transportation, Energy, and the Environment.
Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C., USA. 1991.Return to Paper
26. Greene, D.l., and D.J. Santini, editors, Transportation and Global Climate
Change. The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), Washington,
D.C., USA. 1993.Return to Paper
27. B.G. Tunnah, Wang Shumao, and Liu Feng, editors, China: Issues and Options
in Greenhouse Gas Control, Energy Efficiency in China: Technical and Sectoral
Analysis, Subreport Number 3. The World Bank, Industry and Energy Division,
Washington, D.C., USA. 1994.Return to Paper
28. Liu, Z. P., J. E. Sinton, F. Q. Yang, M. D. Levine, and M. K. Ting, Industrial
Sector Energy Conservation Programs in the People's Republic of China during
the Seventh Five-Year Plan (1986-1990). Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley,
California, USA and Energy Research Institute, Peoples Republic of China.
LBL-36395. 1994.Return to Paper
Commissioned by The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development
Energy, Security and Environment in Northeast Asia Project (esena@nautilus.org)
Ken Wilkening, Program Officer
125 University Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94710-1616 USA
(510) 204-9296 * Fax (510) 204-9298 * Web: http://www.nautilus.org
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