Nuclear Issues

1. Pakistan Nuclear Safety
2. Related News and Analysis

Nuclear Issues

Physicists from an Italian Arms Control Center are visiting Pakistan to prepare a report on the status of nuclear security.
"Italians here for N-safety talks"

According to U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the United States government has no knowledge whether or not Al-Qaeda has been able to acquire plans or material to make nuclear weapons. Kenton Kieth, a spokesman for the U.S. led Coalition, has stated that it is "beyond imagination" that the Coalition will use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons in Afghanistan. An unconfirmed report in The Frontier Post, a Peshawar based Pakistani daily, has noted that al-Qaeda fighters in Tora Bora mountains might have twenty Russian-made Oragan missiles.
"No knowledge of Al-Qaeda's nuke plans: Rumsfeld"
"Coalition not to use nuclear, chemical weapons"
"Al Qaeda has 20 Russian missiles"

Le Monde, France, published an article that discussed "mininuke" - and the possibility of their use in Afghanistan. The essay referred to the work of the Nautilus Institute's disarmament specialist Hans Kristensen. An English translation of the essay has been posted on the Institute's website.
"Mininuke, the secret bomb"

Writing for the Pakistani daily The Dawn, Yasmin Mustafa argues that regional or national conflicts around the globe now have the potential to escalate into much larger wars involving nuclear weapons. She stresses the need for the elimination of all weapons of mass destruction.
"Nuclear weapons: to what end?"

Afghanistan War and Implications

The Coalition spokesman Kenneth Keith has rejected calls by humanitarian agencies for the investigation of the killing of war prisoners in a fort near Marzar-e-Sharif. Meanwhile, reports in the Pakistani media indicate that the Taliban forces in Kandhar are collapsing as intense ground fighting and air bombardment of the city continues. A misguided bombing by the U.S. air force killed three U.S. soldiers and might have injured Hamid Karzai, the newly elected head of the interim Afghan cabinet. Another report from southeast Kandahar indicates that British Special Forces operatives might have missed finding Osama bin Laden by a few hours.
"Coalition rejects probe into Mazar massacre"
"75 killed in US bombing"
"45 dead as Kandahar, Herat pounded: Taliban claim downing plane"
"More leaders plan to desert Taliban"
"Taliban command structure crumbles"
"Airstrikes, heavy tribal assault on Kandahar"
"Alliance withdraws from Kandahar airport"
"Three US troops, 5 Afghans killed, Karzai hurt"
"SAS missed Osama by hours: press"

After nine days of intense negotiations, the meeting of the delegates of the Afghan factions ended in a signed agreement to set up an interim cabinet as a first step towards establishing a representative government in Kabul. The newly appointed head of the interim cabinet Hamid Karzai has declared amnesty for all surrendering Taliban. There have been reports of negotiations between the Taliban defending Kandhar and Karzai for a peaceful surrender of the city. Several Pakistani newspapers have profiled Hamid Karzai.
"Afghans sign power-sharing agreement: Karzai to head 30-member interim body"
"Main points of inter-Afghan accord"
"Amnesty for all declared: No revenge, vows new chief"
"Taliban team holds talks with Karzai"
"Pashtuns welcome Karzai, some concerns over ability"
"Karzai, the anti-Pak Pashtun mujahideen"
"Pushtun's background led to Karzai's ascendancy"

According to Rahimnullah Yusufzai's report in the Pakistani daily The News, the boycott of the UN-sponsored Bonn conference by a former mujahideen commander and Nangarhar province governor Haji Abdul Qadeer to protest the inadequate Pushtun representation may be an indication of problems faced by the interim government. Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hikmatyar has called the Bonn agreement an imposition of the U.S. will over Afghanistan. A group of Pushtun elders meeting in Peshawar has also stated its displeasure with the Bonn Accord.
"Walkout a glimpse of what lies ahead"
"Hikmatyar blasts Bonn decisions"
"Afghan elders reject Bonn summit"

Burhanuddin Rabbani, the head of the Northern Alliance, has been skeptical of the Bonn process. His statements about the process, issued before the accord was finalized in Bonn, appeared in various Pakistani newspapers.
"Rabbani wants to be president for six months"
"Rabbani rejects interim council, calls for polls"

Mary Robinson, the United Nations High Commissioner for human rights, has asked the United States and Britain to investigate the massacre of Taliban prisoners at Qala-i-Jangi. Sidney Jones, Asia Director of Human Rights Watch, has urged for steps to prevent massacres at other prisons holding the defeated Taliban fighters.
"UN rights chief seeks inquiry into POWs massacre"
"HRW fears repeat of Qala-i-Jangi like incident"

Aid agencies have reported that the worsening security condition in Afghanistan is hampering their relief work.
"Infighting, insecurity, uncertainty hamper relief work"
"UNHCR suspends activities after attack on vehicles"

World Food Program's spokesperson Lindsey Davies has expressed concern about the well being of 238,000 people living in Kandahar, the last Taliban stronghold and scene of intense air bombardment and ground war. The United Kingdom based charity organization, Save the Children, has warned that babies and infants of Afghan families stranded in sub-zero temperatures in northern Afghanistan are dying because of a serious shortage of food and other essentials.
"238,000 Kandahar residents run out of food"
"Babies dying of hunger, cold in Afghanistan"

The Chief Commissioner for Afghan Refugees, Syed Asif Shah has denied reports of ethnic tensions in Afghan refugee camps. Local residents of Dir in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province reportedly beat some Afghan refugees. According to some unconfirmed reports, the fighters of the Northern Alliance have attacked Pushtun refugees traveling towards Afghanistan's border with Pakistan. Despite the sealing of the border with Afghanistan, thousands of Afghan refugees are coming into Chaman, a Pakistani border town close to Kandahar.
"Ethnic tension in DPs' camps denied"
"Afghan refugees thrashed in Dir"
"Refugees under attack in Afghanistan"
"Refugees still pouring into Chaman"

According to a report in The News, Pakistan, Professor Abdur Rab Rasool Sayyaf, a Northern Alliance leader will escort a large number of Pakistanis detained in Afghanistan back to Pakistan.
"Sayyaf due in Peshawar along with held Pakistanis"

President General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan has welcomed the Bonn agreement.
"Musharraf hails Bonn agreement"

Russia's envoy in Kabul Alexander Oblov issued a statement indicating that the Russian embassy in Kabul is now functioning. The Russian foreign ministry, however, has not issued an announcement declaring the embassy open.
"Russian envoy says Kabul embassy functioning"

The United States has reportedly been pressuring the Russians to break off their close relationship with the Northern Alliance. George J. Tenet, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, met with Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad. According to press reports, George Tenent asked for Pakistan's help in locating Osama bin Laden. The Dawn, Pakistani newspaper, reported that two U.S. gun ships have landed at the Jalalabad airport. John Stufflebeem, a spokesman for the Pentagon, has expressed concerns that the Taliban may still have portable surface to air missiles.
"US pressures Russia to break ties with Alliance"
"CIA seeks help to track down Osama: Talks held with Musharraf"
"US gun ships land at Jalalabad airport"
"US fears Stingers can be used against it in Afghanistan"

Writing for the Asia Times, Syed Saleem Shahzad suggests that Pakistan and the United States may have saught help of a convicted Pakistani drug baron with influence among Afghan warlords.
"US turns to drug baron to rally support"

Unnamed energy experts in Pakistan have suggested that the U.S. might eventually have control over $5 trillion worth of oil and gas reserves in the Central Asian republics
"US targets $5 trillion oil, gas reserves"

The Asia Times published an interview with an unnamed Saudi who is "very close to Saudi scholars, (and)some members of the Saudi royal family." Another report in the Asia Times looks at the effects of the war in Afghnistan on Kuwait.
"Saudi Arabia: Papering over the cracks"
"Battle lines drawn in Kuwait"

In an essay published in the Asia Times, Richard Perle has argued that Iraq should be the next phase in the U.S. war against terrorism.
"Next stop, Iraq"

Writing from Afghanistan for the Asia Times, Pepe Escober describes the situation in Afghanistan. The first four parts of his story were included in the last SANDnet newsletter.
"KABUL DIARY, Part 5: Afghan democracy in action"
"KABUL DIARY, Part 6: Cultural holocaust"
"Taking a spin in Tora Bora"

Pakistan

The Pakistani government has initiated a campaign to control Islamic militants and their institutions. In his essay for the Asia Times, Muddasir Rizvi suggests that "the religious parties appear to be taking advantage of the lack of democracy and social cover to get back into the political mainstream." The influx of the Taliban fighters has caused concern in Pakistan.
"Govt's first challenge to religious militants"
"All Madaris to be registered"
"Outfits offering military training to be banned"
"Pakistan's under-fire Islamist groups bide their time"
"Pakistan wants Taliban out, but fighters seep in"

Writing for the Dawn, a Pakistani daily, Syed Talat Hussain argues that "the more long term and durable solution to the problem of extremism will have to integrate the madressahs (Islamic schools) into the mainstream education system." Masooda Bano's essays in the News, Pakistan, argues that the "ruling elite of this country, particularly the military elite" and not "religious extremism" is responsible for the country's economic and social problems.
"Breeding ground of extremism"
"Let's faces realities!"

Frederic Grare's essay in The Economic and Political Weekly of India argues that Pakistan's powerful religious political party the Jamaat-i-Islami is finding itself "isolated".
"Pakistan: Islamic Threat to Stability"

Groups of established politician along with some non-governmental organizations have launched a new political party in Pakistan.
"Qaumi Jamhoori Party formed"

Pakistan and Iran have been moving towards closer bilateral relations. In his essay for the Dawn, Pakistan, political commentator Dr Maqbool Ahmad Bhatty argues that a strong relationship between Pakistan and Iran would provide political stability in Asia.
"Pak-Iran differences on Afghanistan over: Karzai"
"Pakistan, Iran agree to lay gas pipeline: Trade ties being cemented"
"Islamabad, Tehran to increase mly cooperation"
"New turn in relations with Iran"

According to a report in the News, Pakistan, the United States is pressuring the People's Republic of China to stop supporting Pakistan's missile development program. The U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has stated that military-to-military linkages between Pakistan and the U.S. should be maintained.
"US will ask China to stop missile cooperation with Pakistan"
"Rumsfeld stresses mly ties with Pakistan"

Pakistan political commentator Nasim Zehra believes that the "possibility of the geographical expansion of the United States' military operation in Afghanistan cannot be ruled out."
"Pakistan and the ongoing US military operation"

India

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) - a Hindu nationalist party - has declared that it is "more interested in building a grand temple in Ayodhya than worrying about the stability of the government." Another Hindu nationalist party, Vishwa Hindu Parishad, has reiterated its intentions of building a temple at Ayodhya. The Indian government, however, has indicated that it will oppose attempts at any new constructions at the controversial site.
"Government can go, temple is more important: RSS"
"VHP to go ahead with construction of Ram Mandir: Giriraj"
"Govt to keep status quo at Ayodhya, says Advani"

Invoking provisions under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTO), the Indian government banned two political groups. The Amnesty International has called POTO a "draconian law'. As a result of immense pressure from the opposition political parties, media, and human rights organizations the Indian government has decided to amend the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance by curtailing its operational period from five to three years and deleting a provision affecting freedom of the press.
"Center invokes POTO, declares PWG, MCC terrorist organizations"
"POTO: Amnesty urges India not to adopt controversial law"
"Govt decides to amend POTO"

Kashmir

Indian and Pakistani newspapers have reported violence and political demonstrations in Kashmir.
"17 killed in held Kashmir gunbattles, suicide attack"
"22 killed in Kashmir clashes"
"Major among 27 killed in held Kashmir"
"10 killed in Kashmir"
"Demo in Kashmir against arrest of women"

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with the Monash Asia Institute.

Zulfiqar Ahmad, Program Officer, Peace and Security Program: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Wade L. Huntley, Director, Peace and Security Program
Berkeley, California, United States