Nuclear Issues

1. Related News and Analysis

Nuclear Issues

President Pervez Musharraf was quoted in Indian and Pakistani newspapers as having told a German magazine that Pakistan might use nuclear weapons against India "as a last means of defence." India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee refused to comment on the story. Russia has stated its commitment to help India develop nuclear energy.
"Pakistan may use nukes, says Musharraf"
"No comments on Musharraf threat: PM"
"Russia to help India's nuclear energy prog"

Afghanistan

Afghanistan's interim government has reportedly foiled an attempted coup by alleged supporters of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami. Hezb-e-islami has denied involvement in the attempted coup. The Aghan interim authority reportedly did not inform the International Peacekeeping commanders of the arrest of alleged plotters. There were also reports of an assassination attempt on Afghan Defence Minister Muhammad Qasim Fahim. Writing for the daily Dawn, Najamuddin Shaikh argues that the successful implementation of the Bonn Agreement would be in Pakistan's interest.
"Plot to kill Karzai, ex-king foiled; 300 held"
"HIA disowns detainees"
"Peacekeepers, left in the dark"
"Four killed in assassination attempt on Afghan minister"
"Afghanistan: the attempted coup?"

Afghan interim authorities have begun destroying poppy fields despite violent protests from framers. Eight militiamen were killed when Afghan interim administration forces recaptured a key trade route to Iran.
"Destruction of poppy fields begins in Afghanistan"
"Eight Afghans killed in poppy ban protest"
"8 killed as Afghans fight for trade route"

At least two rockets were fired at the headquarters of peacekeeping troops in Kabul. The daily Frontier Post reported that a Taleban web site has posted a message claimed to be written by Mullah Umar. Al-Qaida and Taliban are distributing pamphlets offering cash rewards for dead or captured Westerners. Meanwhile, the US military has stated that they have not found any signs of Osama bin Laden in Eastern Afghanistan. Author Ahmed Rashid believes that the US is not "putting enough weight behind the Karzai government."
"Rocket attack on Afghanistan peacekeepers"
"US says no trace of bin Laden in cave network"
"Taliban fugitive leader vows armed struggle"
"Cash offered for dead Westerners"
"Expert doubts opposition ability to strike back"

According to a report in the daily Frontier Post, the Royal Marines in Afghanistan are not well prepared for the "think air of Kabul." Writing for the daily News, Rahimullah Yusufzai reports that three Pakistan prisoners have died at the Cha'ab Prison which hold another 99 Pakistanis.
"UK Marines facing breathing problem"
"Three Pakistanis die in Afghan jail"

International agencies have issued an appeal to donors for $128 million for humanitarian aid.
"Donors for investment in health sector"

A UN team is investigating three mass graves found in Bamiyan. The UNHCR estimates that 400,000 Afghan refugees will return from Iran during the current year. An estimated 150,000 refugees have already returned from Pakistan. UNHCR is reportedly running out of funds to facilitate the return of Afghan refugees. Afghan civilians hurt by US bombings have demanded compensation.
"Three mass graves found in Bamiyan"
"Iran, UNHCR to help return refugees home"
"Number of returnees reached to 150,000"
"UNHCR running out of funds as refugees return home"
"US airstrikes shattered people's lives"

India-Pakistan Tensions

There has been no thaw in India-Pakistan relations.
"De-escalation unlikely in near future"
"Visit has nothing to do with bilateral ties: Pant"

In his essay for the daily Dawn, Ghulam Umar, a retired Pakistani General, urges India to pull it troops back from the border.
"A dangerous stand-off"

Pakistan

President Pervez Musharraf has announced that a referendum asking for the extension of his tenure for five years will be held later this month. He has also stated that the government would make "essential" amendments to the Constitution before the scheduled general elections in October. A report in the daily News suggests that the October elections will be held on a non-party basis. Pakistani political parties, as well as newspapers, have sharply criticized the planned referendum. The constitutional legality of the referendum is also uncertain. The Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca has stated that the US considers the planned referendum an "internal matter" for Pakistan.
"Referendum on April 30"
"Question finalized for referendum"
"Constitutional amendments before polls: Musharraf"
"Non-party elections on the horizon"
"Politicians reject president's speech"
"PML plans strike, rallies against referendum"
"ARD to mobilize masses against referendum"
"The crucial issue of legitimacy"
"Real democracy vs real interests"
"High on bravado"
"Legal experts say referendum constitutional"
"Referendum: the legal aspect"
"Referendum internal matter of Pakistan: US"

Zafar Iqbal's two-part essay in the daily Dawn gives a short history of the military rule in Pakistan.
"Generals in politics"
"Changing style of military rule: Generals in politics-II"

Pakistani newspapers carried many reports on the recent operation against al-Qaeda operatives hiding the country. An unconfirmed report in the daily Nation states that Osama bin Laden may have been hiding in the Pakistani city of Faisalabad.
"Plan to hit US interests foiled"
"Six more arrests come to light"
"2 more Al Qaeda men arrested"
"Efforts on to decipher code words of Al Qaeda men"
"Undisclosed facts of crackdown on Al Qaeda men"
"Osama in Faisalabad?"

According to reports in some Indian and Pakistan newspapers Pakistan is seeking support from the US to train its intelligence services.
"Pakistan to reorganise intelligence services"
"FBI, CIA to train Pakistani intelligence personnel"

Pakistan has promoted two Generals to become corp commanders and has announced other new appointments. Medical doctors all cross Pakistan observed a day long strike to protest the widespread killing of doctors in Karachi and other cities of the country.
"New corps commanders for Multan, Mangla"
"Doctors observe country-wide strike"

Pakistan has signed a $150 million contract with Ukrainian Malyshev tank plant for the supply of 6TD-2 engines.
"Ukraine to supply 315 engines for Al-Khalid tanks"

India

Communal violence continued in the Indian state of Gujarat. Well know social activist Medha Patkar was mobbed at Sabarmati Ashram that was founded by Gandhi. Newspapers had different opinions on the Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's recent visit to Gujarat. Many Indian politicians, social activists, and historians have called for a nation-wide movement against communalism. Sumanta Banerjee's essay in the Economic and Political Weekly argues that India is a "soil fertile with religious prejudices and hatred."
"Violence erupts again on eve of PM's Gujarat visit"
"Stray incidents in Gujarat"
"Medha Patkar mobbed at Gandhi Ashram, scribes hurt"
"Not enough, Mr. Prime Minister"
"A loud and clear message to Modi"
"Call for nationwide campaign against Gujarat carnage"
"When the 'Silent Majority' Backs a Violent Minority"

Indian government has announced that it will domestically manufacture 140 Russian-designed Sukhoi 30.
"India will make 140 Sukhoi jets"

C.P. Bhambhri essay in the daily Hindu examines the recent elections in Uttar Pradesh to argue that the "socially progressive Backward Caste and Dalit parties have rejected the BJP.
"Verdict for a social bloc"

Kashmir

Indian and Pakistani newspapers reported continued political violence and unrest in Jammu and Kashmir. According to unnamed official sources about 4,000 Pakistani militants are waiting for the opening of mountain passes to cross into Kashmir. A report in the daily Hindustan Times states that 38,104 weapons, including 23,500 AK type rifles and 9144 pistols and revolvers were recovered between January 1990 and December 2001.
"10 killed as strike observed in Srinagar"
"12 killed in Kashmir clashes"
"Seven killed in Kashmir"
"Four killed in Kashmir, protest over youth's death"
"Nine killed in double terror strikes in J&K"
"Kashmir clashes claim 18 lives"
"4,000 ultras waiting to infiltrate into J&K before polls"
"Arms recovered in J&K enough for two mini-wars: Official"

The All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) has stated that it would not join any electoral process that aimed at forming a government. APHC has also accused the Indian government of harassing its leaders. All Bharatiya Janata Party's office bearers in Kashmir have resigned in support of the resignation of their senior leader Abdul Kabuli.
"Hurriyat firm on not contesting J&K polls"
"New Delhi harassing leaders: APHC"
"BJP leaders resign en masse in Kashmir"

Regional News

In his first press conference in twelve years, Velupillai Prabakaran, the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), indicated his openness to renouncing the armed struggle. Sudha Ramachandran's essay in the Asia Times takes a brief look at the life of Prabakaran. The peace process in the country has made possible the opening of the main highway connecting the north with the south of the country.
"LTTE ready to give up Eelam if acceptable solution given"
"Sri Lanka's rebel with a cause"
"A9 opening: Peace wins where war failed"

Many deaths were reported as the violence in Nepal continued. Nepali political parties have forged an alliance to fight the Maoist insurgency. Some Nepali leaders have asked for a political solution to end the insurgency.
"Nine more Maoists killed"
"Security forces gunned down 24 rebels"
"More than 100 dead in Maoist attacks in Nepal"
"Maoists continue destruction, 14 gunned down"
"Leaders for public mobilisation to initiate talks with rebels"
"Parties forge alliance against Maoists"

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with the Monash Asia Institute.

Zulfiqar Ahmad, South Asia Program Officer: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States