Nuclear Issues

1. Related News and Analysis

Nuclear Issues

M.V. Ramana's essay in the Daily Times argues that "adopting ideas about how to deploy or use nuclear weapons - especially tactical weapons - from the cold war rivals would be suicidal."
"Tactical nuclear weapons: another firebreak"

According to Pervez Hoodbhoy, a Pakistani physicist, people in Pakistan "are not afraid [of nuclear war] because of simple ignorance" of what such a war would mean. In another interview with the daily Times of India, Hoodbhoy stated that "religious fundamentalism - Islamic and Hindu - has devastated both countries." In her essay for Outlook, India, novelist Arundhati Roy writes that nuclear weapons "violate everything that is humane, they alter the meaning of life."
"No panic for Pakistanis who 'don't understand' nuclear war"
"Say No to Nukes"
"Under The Nuclear Shadow"

Narendra Gupta, retired Air Vice-Marshall Indian Airforce, suggest that it will be "a fallacy" to believe that India's surface-to-surface missiles (SSM) can counter Pakistan's SSMs.
"Not quiet on the western front"

Afghanistan

Over 5,000 members of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are now stationed in Kabul. ISAF has reportedly come under rocket fire in Gardez. The US forces mistakenly killed three members of the security squad of Governor of Logar, Dr Fazlullah Mujaddadi.
"5,000 ISAF troops in Kabul"
"Coalition come under rocket attack in Gardez"
"Logar shootout victims identified"

UNOCOL, a US oil company, has stated that it has "no plans or interest" in Turkmen-Afghan-Pakistan gas pipeline project. According to a report in the Daily Times, poppy cultivation in Afghanistan is "resuming steadily."
"UNOCAL not interested in Turkmen-Afghan-Pak gas pipeline"
"Afghanistan after the Taliban"

Australia's Prime Minister John Howard has stated that requests for further assistance "in the struggle against terrorism would be considered on their merits."
"No blank cheque to US: Howard"

Delegates at the Loya Jirga elected Hamid Karzai, the leader of the current interim administration, as Afghanistan's head of state. According to some reports, Karzai had the support of various warlords, former King Zahir Shah and members of the interim cabinet. The proceedings of the Loya Jirga were marked by delays, confusion and walkouts. Secretary of State Colin Powell has denied accusations that the US pushed for Karzai's nomination.
"Hamid Karzai elected Afghanistan's head of state"
"Cabinet, ex-king and warlords back Karzai"
"Zahir renounces role as Loya Jirga delayed"
"Karzai 'elected' president amid confusion"
"Delegates walk out of Loya Jirga"
"Powell denies US meddling in Loya Jirga"

Edward Girardet's report in the Daily Times examines the influence of Tajiks from Panjshir valley, the original stronghold of the anti Taliban struggle, in the Loya Jirga. According to Rahimullah Yusufzai of the daily News, "US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has emerged as the king- maker in Afghanistan." Another report in the daily News looks at some of the players at the Jirga.
"Panjshiris loom over Loya Jirga"
"Khalilzad emerges as king-maker in Afghanistan"
"Loya Jirga to herald an end to political careers of ministers"

Ahmed Rashid's report in the Far Eastern Economic Review indicates that the political process in Afghanistan has been "seriously jeopardized by the failure of international donors to come up with sufficient funding for the reconstruction of the country or to support the government budget."
"Stunted"
"Donors fail to live up to pledges for Kabul"

Over a million Afghans refugees have reportedly returned to their country.
"One million Afghans return"

India-Pakistan Tensions

Following the visit of the US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage the tensions between India and Pakistan have eased somewhat. President Musharraf's promise to crackdown on militants crossing into Kashmir was followed by India's lifting of ban on the use of its airspace by Pakistani commercial aircrafts. India has also ordered its western fleet to end patrols off Pakistani waters in the Arabian Sea. India has reportedly told the visiting US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld that it is not planning any further immediate measures to diffuse the crisis. Pakistan's current envoy to Malaysia and former foreign secretary Najmuddin Shaikh has indicated that some militant groups may not be "entirely subservient" to the wishes of the government. K.P. Nayar's report in the daily Telegraph, India, examines the role of Brajesh Mishra, national security adviser to Vajpayee, in diffusing the India- Pakistan crisis. According to a report by Muzamil Jaleel in the daily Indian Express, the reduction in tension has had very little impact on Indian troops deployed along the Line of Control (LoC).
"India lifts ban on overflights"
"India withdraws warships New Delhi selects"
"Delhi to us: thus far and no further"
"Pak warns of loose cannon"
"Acting in concert"
"On the ground, little to cheer yet"

According to Pakistan's Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Mushaf Ali Mir, Indian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Searcher Mk II that was shot down by the Pakistan Air Force was an Israeli spy plane launched from India.
"Downed plane was Israeli: Mushaf"

India's Defence Secretary Yogendra Narain has denied reports that the US and Britain have suspended arms sales to India.
"US, UK to continue arms sales to India"

Amnesty International has criticized extensive anti-personnel mine laying operations being conducted by both India and Pakistan since December 2001. Yoginder Sikand's report in Outlook, India, examines the human costs of the Kashmir conflict.
"AI deplores mining of border areas"
"What You And I Can Do?"

In an essay for the daily Indian Express, J.N. Dixit argues that present circumstances require India to act "decisively in operational terms against Pakistan's activities in J&K." V.R. Raghavan (daily Hindu) criticizes the Indian government for "the belief that war can be used as political theatre to demonstrate resolve against the adversary." John Chipman & Gary Samore suggest a set of steps that can make both Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf "come out winners" in the current crisis.
"This is our litmus test"
"Losing strategic credibility"
"War's your trump card, tips on how to play"

Jasgit Singh (daily Indian Express) argues that "terrorism, not Kashmir, is the central issue" in the current crisis. K. Subrahmanyam (daily Times of India) criticizes the US for giving into Pakistan's "nuclear blackmail." Imtiaz Alam (daily News, Pakistan) believes that "General Musharraf with his 'guerrilla retreat' [from his support of the jihadis] has snatched high moral and diplomatic ground from the Indians."
"Rein in the blackmailer"
"Superpower retreat: Bowing to N-blackmail"
"Success of an unavoidable 'retreat'"

Pratap Mehta (daily Hindu) believes that for a "genuine dialogue to be possible the entire discourse on Kashmir will have to change: both [India and Pakistan] will have to see the issue as a non-zero sum game, that is look for a resolution where both can win." Iffat Malik's essay in the daily Dawn argues that if India and Pakistan were to go to war "they will do so purely because of domestic politics." Sadanand Dhume (Far eastern Economic Review) also argues that because of domestic political compulsions "even if Pakistan stops militant infiltration into Kashmir, it may not be enough to stop war."
"Dialogue, state and utopia"
"Waging war to stay in power"
"Tough Mission"

Pakistan

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar has offered resignation for "health reasons." President Musharraf has reportedly decided to retain Abdul Sattar and not appoint a new foreign minister.
"Abdul Sattar: Caught Bush, bowled Mush"
"President decides to retain Sattar as foreign minister"

According to a report initially published by the Newsweek, Pakistani jihadis have promised to continue their fight in Kashmir. Leader of various Pakistani political parties have reaffirmed their support of the "Kashmiris' struggle in a principled and political manner." K.P. Nayar's report in the daily Telegraph suggests "a split in the Pakistani establishment on turning off the terrorist tap permanently." A Daily Times editorial criticizes the Pakistan government for giving contradictory signals about the recently announced ban on 115 Madaris [seminaries] allegedly involved in extremism and militancy.
"Militants vow to defy curbs on movement"
"Politicians urge unity against Indian designs"
"Cracks in junta top rung"
"Plain speaking and acting needed"

Khalid Ahmad of the Daily Times reviews news and stories appearing on Pakistan's Urdu press
"A dangerous residual longing for jehad"
"The insidious logic of war"
"The grand rift in the Pakistani mind"

India

The ruling National Democratic Alliance has proposed Abdul Kalam - once in charge of India's missile development program - for the president of India.
"Kalam is NDA candidate"

Andre Beteille's essay in the daily Telegraph argues that in India "there are not only cleavages - of language, religion, education, occupation and so on - but also cross-cutting ties." Harish Khare believes that Prime Minister Vajpayee has initiated "confidence-building measures within his own Government." BG Verghese's essay in the daily Hindustan Times argues that "Hindutva's litany of hate against Muslims and other minorities" reflects "its own mindset."
"Two Indias?"
"Confidence-building at home"
"Mythology of hate"

According to a report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is the 11th largest military spender in the world with $12.9 billion budgetary expenditure for 2001.
"India ranks 11th in world military spending: SIPRI"

An editorial in the daily Nation, Pakistan, believes that the US is favoring India. Maqsudul Hasan Nuri's essay in the daily News, Pakistan, expresses concern over "the increasing solidification of the Indo-Israel nexus in the past few years."
"US veers round to Indian view"
"Indo-Israel-US nexus and Pakistan's security"

Kashmir

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has toned down his earlier statements that al-Qaeda militants may be operating in Kashmir. Syed Ali Shah Geelani, a leader of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), was arrested under the recently enacted Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA); his arrest caused a protest strike in Srinager.
"US, Pakistan play down Al-Qaeda link to Kashmir"
"Kashmiri leader held under Pota"
"Strike disrupts life in held Kashmir"

Zafar Meraj's essay in Outlook, India, examines the recent split in Hizbul Mujahideen, Kashmir's most prominent militant group. Pradeep Dutta's report for the daily Indian Express suggests "growing differences" between Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Hizbul Mujahideen.
"Electing Freedom"
"Foreign Lashkar vs local Hizbul"

MORI International, an opinion polling organization, has published results of a recent poll conducted in Jammu and Kashmir. A report in the daily Times of India analyzes the poll.
"Kashmiris Reject War In Favour Of Democratic Means"
"Peace Poll"

According to a daily Telegraph, India, report, "a section of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's advisers believes that the time has come for India to show an iron fist in Kashmir."
"Hard line on Kashmir on Atal table"

In an interview with the daily Frontier Post, the chairman of the Muttahida Jehad Council, an alliance of 15 Jihadi organizations, has ruled out the possibility of any ceasefire with India. The Defence Council of Pakistan and Afghanistan, a loose coalition of various Pakistani political parties, has accused President Musharraf of "total surrender" to the US and compromising the 'Kashmir cause'.
"Jihad Council rules out ceasefire with India"
"Change in Kashmir policy opposed"

Writing for the daily Frontier Post, Kamila Shamsie stressed the need to "stop thinking about Kashmir in terms of what India and Pakistan want, and start thinking about the rights of the Kashmiris."
"Flames clinging to a torched village"

Raja Mohan's report in the daily Hindu believes that India should focus on "preparing the ground for a final settlement of the Kashmir dispute." Writing for the daily Dawn, Jawad Naqvi suggests that the US may be seeking a "long-term political solution in the region."
"Drawing America into Kashmir"
"US plans to shift gear in Kashmir process"

Produced by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development in partnership with the Monash Asia Institute.

Zulfiqar Ahmad, South Asia Program Officer: SANDNet@nautilus.org
Berkeley, California, United States