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Policy Forum Online Archive:
2001
Contents:
Managing Perception Gaps in the US-Japan Partnership |
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August 29, 2001: PFO #01-06 |
China and the End of North Korea |
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July 26,2001: PFO #01-05 |
Nuclear Insecurity in South Asia |
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April 19, 2001: PFO #01-04A |
North Korea's change in policy and U.S. policy toward North Korea: Recommendations for the Bush Administration |
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April 16, 2001: PFO #01-02M |
The Good Cop and the Bad Cop |
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March 22, 2001: PFO #01-02L |
South Korea and NMD |
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March 21, 2001: PFO #01-03A |
Discussion of William J. Taylor's "North Korea Policy: Steady As She Goes" |
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March 20, 2001: PFO #01-02J |
Korean Peninsula: Are There Things More Important, than Peace? |
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March 20, 2001: PFO #01-02I |
Bush Should Listen To A Korean Elder Statesman |
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March 13, 2001: PFO #01-02G |
North Korea: Avoid Another Crossroads |
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March 13, 2001: PFO #01-02F |
North Korea Policy: Steady As She Goes |
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March 7, 2001: PFO #01-02E |
Dove Myths: No Better Than Hawk Myths |
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March 7, 2001: PFO #01-02D |
Six Myths About Dealing With Pyongyang |
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February 20, 2001: PFO #01-02C |
DPRK Economic Reforms and U.S. Security Policy in Northeast Asia |
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February 20, 2001: PFO #01-02 |
Inauguration of President Bush and alliance between China and North Korea |
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January 31, 2001: PFO #01-02A |
The Sino-Pakistani Relationship: From Harmony to Disquiet
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January 2, 2001: PFO #01-01A |
Katsuhisa Furukawa and Amiko Nobori
Managing Perception Gaps in the US-Japan Partnership August 29, 2001: PFO #01-06A
PFO essay |
The following essay was contributed by Katsuhisa Furukawa, a Research Associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Amiko Nobori, a Visiting Scholar at the Sigur Center for Asian Studies, George Washington University.
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DUJARRIC, Robert, Hudson Institute
China and the End of North Korea July 26, 2001: PFO #01-05A
PFO essay |
This essay is by Robert Dujarric, Research Fellow at the Hudson Institute, Washington DC. Dujarric argues that the social and economic changes underway in the PRC are undermining the authority of the Communist Party and will eventually lead to a political transformation. He concludes that a post-communist China will not put the same emphasis on maintaining relations with the DPRK, opening the door for the ROK, the US, and Japan to push for absorption of the DPRK.
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FARUQUI, Ahmad
Nuclear Insecurity in South Asia April 19, 2001: PFO #01-04A
PFO essay |
This essay was contributed by Ahmad Faruqui, Defense and Energy Economist at EPRI, based in Palo Alto, California. Disputing a recent article by a US Naval officer, Faruqui writes that Pakistan has some legitimate security concerns regarding India. He reviews the history of the Indo-Pakistani conflict, including the roles played by Russia and the United States. He concludes that nuclear weapons have not increased security for either country, and that both need to reduce their expenditures on armaments and instead concentrate on human development.
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PAIK Haksoon, Sejong Institute
North Korea's change in policy and U.S. policy toward North Korea: Recommendations for the Bush Administration April 16, 2001: PFO #01-02M
PFO essay |
This essay was contributed by Haksoon Paik, Ph.D., a specialist on the DPRK at the Sejong Institute, an independent think tank in the ROK. Paik argues that the DPRK's recent opening-up to the outside world is not a sudden phenomenon, but a continuation of policies that began in the early 1990s. He suggests that the US should conclude its review of DPRK policy quickly and positively engage the DPRK, while keeping in mind both the impact of politics within the DPRK and the views of the ROK.
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CHOI, Won-Ki
The Good Cop and the Bad Cop March 22, 2001: PFO #01-02L
PFO essay |
This essay was written by Choi Won-Ki, Editor and Researcher with the Joongang Daily in Seoul. Choi discusses ROK President Kim Dae-jung's recent visit to the US and Kim's meetings with US officials. This is the tenth in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Choi states that Kim seems unable to convince Bush to follow his Sunshine Policy for warming relations with the DPRK. Choi argues that the internal inconsistency in the US, combined with the US-ROK difference over how to approach the DPRK, created such confusion in the DPRK over future policy that leader Kim Jong-il cancelled the inter-Korean Ministers' meeting scheduled for after the summit. Choi concludes with the argument that Kim Jong-il can now either cooperate with Kim Dae-jung or abandon the peace effort entirely.
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BECK, Peter M.
South Korea and NMD March 21, 2001: PFO #01-03A
PFO essay |
This essay is by Peter M. Beck, Director of Research and Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America, and was originally published in the ROK daily Hankyoreh Shinmun on March 16. This is the first in a series on the debate over missile defense in Asia. Beck states that US President George Bush, while he is spending tens of billions of dollars on a missile program that does not work, is also calling for a massive tax cut that will lead to cuts in social welfare and infrastructure spending. Beck argues that NMD would only alienate America's allies and encourage China and Russia to devote more resources to defense and push them to become enemies of the United States. He concludes that NMD represents a huge mistake for the US and the Korean Peninsula, and South Korea must help the Bush team reject NMD.
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WIT, Joel
Discussion of William J. Taylor's "North Korea Policy: Steady As She Goes" March 20, 2001: PFO #01-02J
PFO essay |
This commentary is Joel Wit, a Guest Scholar at the Brookings Institution and a former US State Department official who worked on DPRK issues from 1993-1999. This is the ninth in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Wit responds to the first essay in the series by William J. Taylor, who argues that the Bush administration should retain the Clinton administration's approach to the two Koreas and he defends the cautious North Korean pace of responding to the overtures in its direction. Wit argues that the Bush administration has not been in office long enough to become "frustrated" with the North Koreans and has not had the opportunity to devote time to policy formation on the DPRK threat beyond vague statements of the need for "transparency" and "reciprocity." Wit also argues that progress on the 1994 Agreed Framework has been slow because of the North Korean negotiating style and ongoing doubts about its program more than because of US foot-dragging.
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TOLORAYA, Georgi
Korean Peninsula: Are There Things More Important, than Peace? March 20, 2001: PFO #01-02I
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay is by Georgi Toloraya, Deputy Director-General of the 1st Asian Department in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Leading Research Fellow at the IMEMO of Russian Academy of Science. This is the eighth in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Toloraya argues that a number of developments over the past year have given watchers of North Korea the hope that North Korea is becoming just another developing, if not democratic, country, looking for its place in a new world order. Toloraya argues outsiders should abandon the hope of changing North Korea by forcing it to democratize, as otherwise engagement becomes a threat to the North Korean regime.
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FOSTER-CARTER, Aidan
Bush Should Listen To A Korean Elder Statesman March 13, 2001: PFO #01-02G
PFO essay |
This essay is by Aidan Foster-Carter, honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University, England. He contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune. This is the seventh in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Foster-Carter argues that to say the ROK-Russia joint statement on the 1972 Anti-Missile Defense Treaty is evidence of the ROK taking Russia's side in the missile defense debate twists the meaning of their statement. Rather, he argues, the US should take notice when such a pro-US leader does make such statements as a sign of how far from the global consensus the US is on missile defense.
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TAYLOR, William J., The Georgetown University School of Foreign Service
North Korea: Avoid Another Crossroads March 13, 2001: PFO #01-02F
PFO essay
This essay is by William J. Taylor, an adjunct professor with The Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. This is the sixth in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush, and responds to the preceding essays by Leon V. Sigal and Daniel A. Pinkston. Taylor argues that it would be a mistake for the Bush Administration to pursue a "get tough" approach toward North Korea, demanding greater, faster reciprocity from Pyongyang in return for the largesse bestowed in outside aid. Taylor states that North Korea has passed its crossroads, and chose the right direction when they held the North-South Summit in Pyongyang and then entered the ongoing process of N-S dialogue. Taylor argues that there are understandable reasons why North Korea is slow to respond, but the US needs to maintain a steady course with persistent, but gentle, diplomacy.
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TAYLOR, William J., The Georgetown University School of Foreign Service
North Korea Policy: Steady As She Goes March 7, 2001: PFO #01-02E
PFO essay |
Discussion
This essay is by William J. Taylor, an adjunct professor with The Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. This is the fifth in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Taylor argues that the Bush administration, as it works to set its foreign policy, should retain the Clinton administration's approach to the two Koreas. Taylor defends the cautious North Korean pace of responding to the South and to the US and cites several positive developments in recent years with North Korea. Taylor argues that its unwillingness to negotiate a deal on stopping its missile program is justified by KEDO's slow pace in bringing the reactors on-line.
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FOSTER-CARTER, Aidan
Dove Myths: No Better Than Hawk Myths March 7, 2001: PFO #01-02D
PFO essay |
This essay is by Aidan Foster-Carter, Senior Research Fellow in Sociology & Modern Korea at Leeds University. In his essay, Foster-Carter responds to an essay (PFO#01-02C) by Leon V. Sigal. This is the fourth in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Foster-Carter states that he agrees with Sigal's conclusions, but not with the assumptions upon which they are based. Foster-Carter argues that a deal with North Korea for the stoppage of its missile program will not be easy or cheap and that the DPRK still wants US troops off the peninsula. He concludes by arguing that North Korea needs a US that will talk to it.
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SIGAL, Leon
Six Myths About Dealing With Pyongyang February 20, 2001: PFO #01-02C
PFO essay| Discussion
This essay is by Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council and author of "Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea." This is the third in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Sigal argues that the proposed US missile defense system is too far off to protect the United States from a possible DPRK missile attack, and, therefore, it is in the US interest to conclude a deal to terminate the DPRK's missile program. Sigal outlines six myths, which he argues have prevented the conclusion of such a missile deal.
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PINKSTON, Daniel A.
DPRK Economic Reforms and U.S. Security Policy in Northeast Asia February 20, 2001: PFO #01-02
PFO essay |
This essay is by Daniel A. Pinkston, a Senior Research Associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. This is the second in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Pinkston argues that among the first steps the Bush administration must take is to specify its position on the 1994 Agreed Framework, negotiated with the DPRK under former President Bill Clinton, and then state its position on the deal nearly negotiated by Clinton to end the DPRK's missile program. Pinkston states that the US must support the DPRK's current reform policies if it is to combat proliferation of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems in Northeast Asia.
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CHEONG, Wooksik, Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea
Inauguration of President Bush and alliance between China and North Korea January 31, 2001: PFO #01-02A
PFO essay |
This essay is by Cheong Wooksik of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea and was translated by You Sanghee. This is the first in a series on the future of US relations with Northeast Asian countries under the administration of incoming US President George W. Bush. Cheong examines the role of DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's visit to the PRC, US policy on the DPRK and the PRC, the US-proposed National Missile Defense, and other issues in relations among the PRC, DPRK, ROK, Japan, and the US. Cheong concludes that ROK President Kim Dae-jung is a natural mediator for US-DPRK talks.
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FARUQUI, Ahmad
The Sino-Pakistani Relationship: From Harmony to Disquiet January 2, 2001: PFO #01-01A
PFO essay |
This contribution is by Ahmad Faruqui, Defense and Energy Economist at EPRI, based in Palo Alto, California. He is currently working on a book entitled "The Price of Strategic Myopia: Reforming Pakistan's Military." Faruqui explores the Sino-Pakistani bilateral relationship, which he argues may have run its course. He argues that the relationship may also soon undergo a reversal. Faruqui reviews Pakistan's historical relationship with the PRC, examines changes in PRC priorities and the influence they have had on its relationships with Pakistan. He concludes with a discussion of future scenarios, including the impact of a changed Sino-Pakistani relationship upon India and the US.
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2000
Contents:
India-East Asia Relations: India's Latest Asian Incarnation |
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December 1, 2000: PFO #00-8A |
North Korea: Torn Between Two Logical Decisions, Regime Maintenance or Economic Survival? |
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December 1, 2000: PFO #00-07B |
This Is No Way to Curb the North Korean Threat |
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October 31, 2000: PFO #00-07A |
North Korea's Kim, Jong-WHO? |
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October 23, 2000: PFO #00-06C |
United Front Strategy against U.S. Troops |
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August 3, 2000: PFO #00-06B |
North Korea and Moral Hazard: Eyes Wide Shut? |
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August 2, 2000: PFO #00-06A |
The Shifting Korean Ideological Divide |
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July 11, 2000: PFO #00-05G |
U.S. Responsibility to Support the Korean Accord |
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July 10, 2000: PFO #00-05F |
After the Korean Summit: Into Thick Air? |
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June 29, 2000: PFO #00-05C |
Let's Not Get Summit Slap-Happy in Korea |
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June 27, 2000: PFO #00-05B |
Koreans Take Steps to Solve Their Own Problems |
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June 26, 2000: PFO #00-05A |
The Future of US-China Relations |
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May 19, 2000: PFO #00-04A |
CARE's Withdrawal from North Korea |
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April 6, 2000: PFO #00-03A |
A New Initiative in Australia-DPRK Relations |
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March 29, 2000: PFO #00-2D |
The What-If Question |
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March 15,2000: PFO #00-02C |
Korea 2000 |
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March 2, 2000: PFO #00-02 |
Clinton and North Korea: Past, Present, and Future |
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March 1, 2000: PFO #00-02A |
A Regional Approach to Security on the Korean Peninsula |
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January 3, 2000: PFO #00-01A |
LIMAYE, Satu P., Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
India-East Asia Relations: India's Latest Asian Incarnation December 1, 2000: PFO #00-8A
PFO essay |
This contribution is by Satu P. Limaye, Director of Research at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. This essay was originally published by Pacific Forum CSIS's e-journal Comparative Connections.
Limaye argues that this third incarnation of India as an Asian state began with the post-nuclear test damage control efforts and was sustained despite the 1999 undeclared Kargil war between Pakistan and India. Limaye reviews India's bilateral relations with the PRC, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Russia, as well as these countries' positions on India's nuclear tests and Pakistan. Limaye argues that India's sustained dimplomatic pressures have moved beyond damage control and into the significant enhancement of ties with other Asian countries, an effort that has largely been reciprocated.
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KIM, Mi-kyoung, World Vision Korea
North Korea: Torn Between Two Logical Decisions, Regime Maintenance or Economic Survival? December 1, 2000: PFO #00-07B
PFO essay |
This contribution is by Mi-kyoung Kim, PhD, a policy advisor to North Korean Aid Programs for World Vision Korea. Kim argues that perceptions of the DPRK and its leader Kim Jong-il prior to the recent diplomatic flurry were based on limited information. Kim also argues that it has become clear that the DPRK regime is simultaneously pursuing two policies, that of strengthening international ties and that of internal regime maintenance, but does not have the resources to do both well.
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SOKOLSKI, Henry, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
This Is No Way to Curb the North Korean Threat October 31, 2000: PFO #00-07A
PFO essay |
Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Washington and author of the forthcoming "Best of Intentions: America's Campaign Against Strategic Weapons Proliferation," published an essay in The Washington Post on October 29, 2000. Sokolski argues that the 1994 Agreed Framework will provide the DPRK with dangerous nuclear technology and know-how. He further argues that a deal that helps the DPRK to launch satellites will provide it with the technology to perfect its long-range missiles. Nautilus will provide responses to this essay in a series examining the DPRK's offer to halt its missile development program in exchange for assistance with launching satellites into space.
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TAYLOR, William J., Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
North Korea's Kim, Jong-WHO? October 23, 2000: PFO #00-06C
PFO essay |
This is the third essay examining the question of the DPRK's past behavior in the light of the recently completed ROK-DPRK summit. This essay was contributed by William J. Taylor, Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Taylor examines the psychological profiles that have been constructed and propagated over the years by analysts, and by the DPRK itself, to demonstrate that those outside the DPRK do not know much about its leadership or its intentions. Taylor argues that the DPRK leadership may have bought into Kim Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy, providing other countries with an opportunity to normalize relations that should not be squandered.
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NAM, Si-uk
United Front Strategy against U.S. Troops August 3, 2000: PFO #00-06B
PFO essay |
This is the second essay examining the question of the DPRK's past behavior in the light of the recently completed ROK-DPRK summit. This essay was contributed by Nam Si-uk, professor at Korea University and former publisher of the Munhwa Ilbo in Seoul. Nam questions whether DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's grand strategy relative to reunification with the ROK still follows a "united front" policy of building alliances with sympathetic factions within the ROK. Nam argues that Kim Jong-il's attempts at intervention in ROK domestic politics, including the US military presence, gives one reason to be pessimistic about whether Kim Jong-il is sincere about reconciliation. This essay originally appeared in the Korea Times on July 31, as "Is United Front Strategy Still Unchanged?"
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FOSTER-CARTER, Aidan
North Korea and Moral Hazard: Eyes Wide Shut? August 2, 2000: PFO #00-06A
PFO essay |
This essay was contributed by Aidan Foster-Carter, an honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea
at Leeds University, England. Looking at the Bangkok meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum, Foster-Carter
questions whether past and current problems with the DPRK should be simply ignored in the process of improving
relations with the DPRK. Foster-Carter cites the DPRK's unwillingness to acknowledge or apologize for terrorist acts
in Burma or for kidnapping ROK and Japanese citizens, not to mention using blackmail to gain economic assistance.
He argues that this creates a moral hazard for other countries. A shorter, edited version of this essay was published by
the International Herald Tribune on July 27.
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HAN, Sung-Joo, Korea University
The Shifting Korean Ideological Divide July 11, 2000: PFO #00-05G
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay was contributed by Han Sung-Joo, Professor of International Relations at Korea University and former ROK Foreign Minister. Han made these remarks at the 50th Anniversary Commemorative Conference on "The Korean War: Forgotten No More," held at Georgetown University in Washington, DC on June 23. Han reviews the history of ideological shifts in the ROK, noting that the divide between left and right becomes apparent whenever the ROK loosens up politically. He argues that while the ROK-DPRK summit has reinvigorated anti-US sentiment in the ROK, when the euphoria from the summit dies down, most people will realize that the costs of keeping US troops in the ROK is worth it to deter war.
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LEE, Hwal-Woong, Minjok Tongshin
U.S. Responsibility to Support the Korean Accord July 10, 2000: PFO #00-05F
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay was contributed by Hwal-Woong Lee, Senior Advisor to Minjok Tongshin (LA-based Korean-American Web Daily). Formerly, Mr Lee served as a Foreign Service Officer of the ROK Foreign Ministry (1956-71), ROK Consul in Los Angeles (1968-71), President of Korea Reunification Forum in LA (1994-95), and Fellow at Korea 2000, an LA-based research council on Korean reunification (1997-99). Lee argues that the US, as the country responsible for the division of the Korean Peninsula and the main supporter of the ROK, has an obligation to support the ROK-DPRK accord. He further argues that the only way to get the DPRK to abandon its weapons programs is to withdraw US troops from the ROK.
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HAYES, Peter, Nautilus Institute
After the Korean Summit: Into Thick Air?
June 29, 2000: PFO #00-05C
PFO essay |
This essay was contributed by Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute. It originally appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle on June 28. Dr. Hayes argues that, in the wake of the summit, the real work of economic cooperation will be fraught with difficulties, particularly in regards to providing the energy needed for ROK enterprises that want to do business in the DPRK. Hayes maintains that the problem of the DPRK's electric grid will require a long-term, holistic solution. He calls on the US to remove the DPRK from the list of terrorism-sponsoring states to allow World Bank involvement in rehabilitating the DPRK's infrastructure.
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CHA, Victor, Georgetown University
Let's Not Get Summit Slap-Happy in Korea June 27, 2000: PFO #00-05B
PFO essay | Discussion
This article is by Professor Victor Cha, an East Asia security specialist in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, Washington DC. He is currently a Senior Fulbright Scholar in South Korea. Cha argues that the summit meeting in Pyongyang was long on atmospherics and short on substance. He says that while the summit had important cathartic effects on the Korean psyche, the hard work has yet to be done. He maintains that reunification and withdrawal of US troops are not issues that are going to be solved in the near term.
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SAVAGE, Timothy, Nautilus Institute
Koreans Take Steps to Solve Their Own Problems June 26, 2000: PFO #00-05A
PFO essay | Discussion
This article by Timothy L. Savage, Program Officer for Global Peace and Security at the Nautilus Institute, appeared in the Korea Herald on June 21. Savage argues that the summit was an important first step in breaking down the ideological barrier that separates the two Koreas. By embracing Kim Dae-jung, DPRK leader Kim Jong-il signaled a move away from the official designation of the ROK as a puppet state, thus opening up the space to a "Korean" solution to the ongoing problem of the divided peninsula.
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ZARSKY, Lyuba, Nautilus Institute
The Future of US-China Relations May 19, 2000: PFO #00-04A
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay is by Lyuba Zarsky, Co-Director of the Nautilus Institute. Ms. Zarsky also sits on the Trade and Environment Policy Advisory Committee of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Zarsky argues that the debate over China is more about the World Trade Organization than about China itself. She criticizes progressives for focusing too strongly on the immediate tactical battle, and in the process, falling into the trap of China-bashing. Instead, she argues, progressives need to develop a vision for a future policy that embraces China as a member of the world community, in order to promote a multilateral approach to problems of environment and human rights.
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MCCARTHY, Thomas
CARE's Withdrawal from North Korea April 6, 2000: PFO #00-03A
PFO essay |
This article is by Thomas McCarthy, who has worked for over twenty-five years as a consultant in agriculture and rural development. He has undertaken seven extended missions in the DPRK, including work for the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the UN Development Program, and the Food and Agriculture Organization. McCarthy discusses CARE's recent decision to withdraw from the US Private Voluntary Organization Consortium (PVOC) working on agricultural development in the DPRK. He argues that, while working in the DPRK is never easy, the PVOC bears a large portion of the responsibility for its failure to follow the agreed procedures on managing and monitoring the agricultural development project. He warns that the withdrawal could damage the credibility of US promises to provide developmental aid to the DPRK.
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COTTON, James, Australian Defence Force Academy
A New Initiative in Australia-DPRK Relations March 29, 2000: PFO #00-2D
PFO essay
This essay was written by James Cotton, Professor of Politics, Australian Defence Force Academy, University of New South Wales. Cotton reviews the recent developments in Australian-DPRK relations, and the possibilities of resumption of full relations. He says that Australia is seeking to move away from isolation of the DPRK and to support US and ROK engagement efforts. For its part, the DPRK seeks more Australian trade and investment, and to improve relations with those nations that contributed to the UN force that intervened in the Korean War.
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MARTIN, Bradley
The What-If Question March 15,2000: PFO #00-02C
PFO essay | Discussion
This article is by Bradley Martin, Contributing Editor, Asia Times Online, Bangkok. It appeared on Asia Times Online. Martin discusses the question of what would happen if the US were to withdraw its troops from the ROK. He warns that doing so would likely lead to an ROK arms buildup that could spark a regional arms race. He also argues that without the automatic intervention promised by US troop presence, the DPRK may decide to launch an invasion if it sees the US occupied elsewhere on the globe.
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OH, Indong
Korea 2000 March 2, 2000: PFO #00-02
PFO essay Discussion
This essay is by Indong Oh, M.D., a fellow and director of Korea-2000, a Los Angeles-based research council on Korean unification. Dr. Oh argues that the continuance of US wartime operational control over ROK forces under the Combined Forces Command hinders the realization of ROK-DPRK dialogue. He calls for shifting the emphasis in peace talks away from US-DPRK bilateral talks and towards direct inter-Korean negotiations.
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WIT, Joel, Brookings Institution
Clinton and North Korea: Past, Present, and Future March 1, 2000: PFO #00-02A
PFO essay
Mr. Wit, a Guest Scholar at the Brookings Institution, is a former US State Department official who worked on DPRK issues from 1993-1999. Wit reviews the history of US President Bill Clinton's engagement policy of the DPRK. He argues that the Agreed Framework has been successful in preventing the DPRK from developing a nuclear weapons arsenal, but has not been fully implemented across the board. At present, the Perry Report has restored some stability to US-DPRK relations. Further progress in the near future could make it difficult for the next US administration to make drastic changes in policy, although a Republican president is likely to take a somewhat different approach toward the DPRK.
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LEE, Hwal-Woong, Korea-2000
A Regional Approach to Security on the Korean Peninsula January 3, 2000: PFO #00-01A
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay was contributed by Hwal-Woong Lee, former Foreign Service Officer for the ROK Government and currently a Fellow at Korea-2000, an LA based research council on Korean reunification. Lee argues that the continued presence of US troops in the ROK prevents a comprehensive settlement of Korean Peninsula security issues. Instead, he calls for a regionally based approach that would include participation by all interested countries.
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1999
Contents:
Dealing with North Korea "As It Is" |
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December 23, 1999: PFO #99-07K |
Two Reports on North Korea |
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December 15, 1999: PFO #99-07J |
The Perry Report: Scenario for a Collision Course? |
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November 9, 1999: PFO #99-07I |
US-DPRK Will End Up in Shotgun Marriage |
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October 22, 1999: PFO #99-07G |
Change in North Korea |
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October 19, 1999: PFO #99-07F |
Seizing Opportunity in North Korea |
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September 23, 1999: PFO #99-07C |
The Road from Berlin |
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September 21, 1999: PFO #99-07B |
Berlin: What Have We Learned and Where Do We Go From Here? |
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September 17, 1999: PFO #99-07A |
The Kumchangni Inspection and Perry's Visit to North Korea |
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March 19, 1999: PFO #99-05B |
South Korea's Package Deal |
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March 19, 1999: PFO #99-05B |
Agreed Framework at the Crossroads |
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March 11, 1999: PFO #99-05 |
Hidden Shoals of Marine Environmental Cooperation in Northeast Asia |
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February 25, 1999: PFO #99-04 |
North Korea's Coming ICBM |
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February 10, 1999: PFO #99-03 |
Prospects for Marine Governance in the Northwest Pacific: Poor? |
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January 27, 1999: PFO #99-02 |
Toward an Ocean Management Regime in the Sea of Japan |
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January 8, 1999: PFO #99-01 |
Keep North Korea in the Agreed Framework |
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January 7, 1999: PFO #98-13E |
CHOI, Won-Ki, Joongang Ilbo
Dealing with North Korea "As It Is" December 23, 1999: PFO #99-07K
PFO essay |
This essay is by Won-Ki Choi, Editor and Researcher with the
Joongang Daily in Seoul. The author reviews the political situation in the DPRK, and how it has been affected by the ongoing economic difficulties. He argues that policies toward the DPRK should be consistent and based on a firm grasp of the reality of the DPRK's situation. He concludes that, ultimately, the international community will have to lead a large-scale development effort for the DPRK.
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CHEONG, Wooksik, Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea
Two Reports on North Korea December 15, 1999: PFO #99-07J
PFO essay |
This essay is by Cheong Wooksik, a representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea, and was translated by You Sanghee. Cheong compares the two recent reports on US policy toward the DPRK; that of former Defense Secretary William Perry and that of the US Congress's North Korea Advisory Group. Cheong argues that while the Perry report was designed to provide policy alternatives, the Republican report was meant to criticize the Clinton administration's DPRK policy. He concludes that while, compared to the Republican report, the Perry report appears progressive, it makes no new proposals for reducing the reliance on military deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.
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LEE, Hwal-Woong, Korea 2000
The Perry Report: Scenario for a Collision Course? November 9, 1999: PFO #99-07I
PFO essay |
This essay was contributed by Hwal-Woong Lee, former Foreign Service Officer for the ROK Government and currently a Fellow at Korea-2000, an LA based research council on Korean reunification. The author argues that the Perry Report offers little hope to end the DPRK's weapons of mass destruction programs, which he says are a response to the US threat to the DPRK's security. He maintains that, in the absence of a political solution that would include the withdrawal of US troops from the ROK, the Perry Report only puts the US and the DPRK on a course to eventual conflict.
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KIM, Myong Chol, Center for Korean-American Peace
US-DPRK Will End Up in Shotgun Marriage October 22, 1999: PFO #99-07G
PFO essay |
This essay was contributed by Kim Myong Chol, Executive Director, the Center for Korean-American Peace, Tokyo, and the former editor of People's Korea. Kim argues that for the US to truly improve relations with the DPRK, it should abandon its long-standing support for the ROK. He maintains that the only alternatives to full normalization of relations with the DPRK are war or a nuclear arms race.
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FEFFER, John and Karin LEE, American Friends Service Committee
Change in North Korea October 19, 1999: PFO #99-07F
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay was contributed by John Feffer and Karin Lee, representatives for the East Asia Quaker International Affairs Program of the American Friends Service Committee. The authors argue that opponents of engagement with the DPRK miss signs of genuine change within the country. They maintain that change in the DPRK should not be compared with that of other countries, as the DPRK remains primarily concerned with preserving its sovereignty. Nonetheless, they argue, the changes are real and long-term, and understanding them will enhance the ability for the US to engage the DPRK in a mutually beneficial manner.
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WOLFSTAHL, Jon, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Seizing Opportunity in North Korea September 23, 1999: PFO #99-07C
PFO essay |
This essay was contributed by Jon Brook Wolfsthal, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in Washington, DC, and a former official of the US Department of Energy. This article was originally published in the Christian Science Monitor on September 21, 1999. Wolfstahl argues that the recent Berlin agreement between the US and the DPRK represents an opportunity to improve US-DPRK relations. He faults the Clinton administration for only concentrating on the DPRK when it takes provocative actions, and argues that, to prevent future tension, the US should move ahead to improve relations as it promised to do in 1994.
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EBERSTADT, Nicholas
The Road from Berlin September 21, 1999: PFO #99-07B
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay was contributed by Nicholas Eberstadt, a researcher with the American Enterprise Institute and author of the forthcoming book, "The End of North Korea." A version of this essay ran in the Chosun Ilbo on September 13. Eberstadt argues that the recent US-DPRK agreement is unlikely to lead to an opening of relations and an end of the DPRK's missile program. He notes that for the DPRK to open up to outside trade and investment would go against its ruling philosophy. He also argues that the DPRK sees missile and nuclear development as vital to its national interests, and thus is unlikely to trade them for better relations with the US.
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CHA, Victor
Berlin: What Have We Learned and Where Do We Go From Here? September 17, 1999: PFO #99-07A
PFO essay | Discussion
This essay was written by Victor Cha, Professor in the Department of Government at Georgetown University and author of "Alliance Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle." Cha argues that the outcome of the recent US-DPRK Berlin talks demonstrates the possibility of engaging the DPRK under the right circumstances. He further argues that enhanced deterrence through ROK participation in Theater Missile Defense will help promote engagement by assuring DPRK adherence to the agreement.
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PAIK, Haksoon, Sejong Institute
The Kumchangni Inspection and Perry's Visit to North Korea March 19, 1999: PFO #99-05B
PFO essay | Discussions
Paik reviews the state of relations among the US, the ROK, and the DPRK, in the aftermath of the inspection of the underground site at Kumchangni and US DPRK Policy Coordinator William Perry's trip to the DPRK. Paik argues that the most realistic approach would be for all sides to accept the minimum gains from the inspection and Perry's visit. Paik concludes that, given its economic difficulties, the DPRK has no choice but to accept the comprehensive package offered by the US and the ROK.
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COSSA, Ralph A., Pacific Forum, CSIS
South Korea's Package Deal March 19, 1999: PFO #99-05B
PFO essay
Dr. Cossa praises ROK President Kim's proposed "package deal" with the DPRK as a "valiant attempt" to save both his own "sunshine policy" toward the DPRK and the 1994 Agreed Framework. In contrast, he criticizes both the US and Japan for lacking a comprehensive policy toward the DPRK. He argues that what is needed to bring Kim's package to fruition is an implementing agency on the lines of KEDO, but headed by the ROK instead of the US.
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HUNTLEY, Wade and Timothy L. SAVAGE, Nautilus Institute
Agreed Framework at the Crossroads March 11, 1999: PFO #99-05
PFO essay
The authors argue that expectations of the immanent collapse of the DPRK have prevented the US and its allies from fully engaging the DPRK, accounting for the current crisis in the Agreed Framework. They maintain that, to convince the DPRK of their sincerity in engagement, the US and Japan must move toward full diplomatic recognition of the DPRK. In exchange, the DPRK must make further commitments, not only to shut down its nuclear and missile programs, but also to reduce its forward military deployment. The authors also propose that the ROK abolish the National Security Law to spur on ROK-DPRK talks.
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KIM, Hyon-Jin, Harvard University
Hidden Shoals of Marine Environmental Cooperation in Northeast Asia February 25, 1999: PFO #99-04
PFO essay | html version | pdf version
Examines the creation of NOWPAP, the central regime for marine environmental cooperation in Northeast Asia, and the political problems associated with its smooth functioning.
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NIKSCH, Larry
North Korea's Coming ICBM February 10, 1999: PFO #99-03
PFO essay
The author argues that the Clinton administration's efforts at engagement with the DPRK have failed to curb the
DPRK's missile development. He maintains that the DPRK will likely have Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM)
capable of reaching parts of the US before the US will be able to build a National Missile Defense to protect against
them. He argues that the DPRK will likely use these missiles as a "diplomatic trump card" to make up for the
deterioration of its conventional armed forces and to push the US to withdraw its troops from the ROK. He calls on
the US to restructure its deterrence policy to make clear to the DPRK that it would face massive retaliation if it
attempted to attack the US.
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HAAS, Peter M., University of Massachusetts-Amherst
Prospects for Marine Governance in the Northwest Pacific: Poor? January 27, 1999: PFO #99-02
PFO essay | html version | pdf version
Looks at the prospects for effective regional action to protect the Northwest Pacific marine environment and concludes that at present the outlook is not promising.
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VALENCIA, Mark, East-West Center
Toward an Ocean Management Regime in the Sea of Japan January 8, 1999: PFO #99-01
PFO essay | html version | pdf version
Argues that an excellent opportunity exists to build a comprehensive environmental management regime for the Sea of Japan and sets forth an outline for a "model" management regime.
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KIM Sung-han
Keep North Korea in the Agreed Framework January 7, 1999: PFO #98-13E
PFO essay
This essay is by Sung-han Kim, Associate Professor, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Seoul, Republic of Korea. The views expressed are the author's own and do not represent the official position of the South Korean government. Dr. Kim argues that the Agreed Framework is vital for maintaining the peace on the Korean peninsula. He maintains that, as the primary goal of the DPRK is regime survival, a comprehensive package from the US, including offers to remove economic sanctions and move toward diplomatic recognition, could serve to bring the DPRK back into compliance with the framework process.
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1998
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