Nautilus Institute Special Reports are longer, often more technical, documents consisting of entire articles, government statements, and other documents relevant to security and peace in Northeast Asia.
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May 24th, 2010
Announcement of Measures against North Korea
The ROK Ministry of Unification released this statement explaining the measures that the ROK government will take in response to the sinking of the Cheonan. These measures include a ban on DPRK ships navigating ROK territorial waters, the suspension of trade with and humanitarian aid to the DPRK, a ban on new investment in the DPRK, and the prohibition of travel to the DPRK by ROK citizens.
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Read a discussion of this article here.
March 9th, 2010
China-North Korea Relations
Dick K. Nanto, Specialist in Industry and Trade, Mark E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs, and Kerry Dumbaugh, Specialist in Asian Affairs, at the Congressional Research Service wrote this report on the relationship between the PRC and DPRK. The report examines the PRC's DPRK policy, the DPRK's policy objectives in its interactions with the PRC, Sino-DPRK diplomatic and economic relations, and the impact of PRC sanctions on the DPRK.
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January 5th, 2010
The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia
Michael Hamel-Green of Victoria University and Peter Hayes of the Nautilus Institute argue that a "Korean NWFZ may be a necessary condition to achieving the full denuclearization of Korea". As well as providing "benefits to the United States in preventing a major direct and wider proliferation threat from North Korea, and to China, Japan and South Korea in maintaining stability in the Northeast Asian Region, it would also serve to address North Korean security concerns about potential US nuclear strikes". They point out that "the two Koreas have already negotiated a legal basis for a Korean Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the form of the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korea Peninsula." This could form the basis of a NWFZ covering the peninsula. Alternately, they suggest, the ROK and Japan could create a Japan Korea NWFZ via a bilateral treaty.
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December 17th, 2009
Extended Nuclear Deterrence: Global Abolition and Korea
Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, analyses developments in the system of United States nuclear hegemony in East Asia deriving from North Korea's drive for nuclear weapons. Hayes argues that "the nuclear threat projected by the US in this hegemonic system drove the DPRK to adopt a nuclear weapons proliferation strategy that was aimed at compelling the United States to change its policies towards the DPRK. The latter's successful nuclear breakout demonstrates that today, the hegemon has no clothes, that is, it is not capable of stopping nuclear breakout by a key adversary." Arguing that the reinforcing of guarantees of extended nuclear deterrence will be unsuccessful and "will lead to eventual nuclear proliferation by the allies themselves", Hayes concludes that only conventional deterrence "is likely to curb the DPRK's nuclear threat, head off long-run proliferation by the ROK and Japan, and by realigning its legitimating ideology ("Global Abolition") with alliance institutions and force structures, restore the now rapidly dwindling US hegemony in the region."
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November 18th, 2009
North Korea Contingency Planning and U.S.-ROK Cooperation
See-Won Byun, Research Associate at the Asia Foundation, produced this report examining "the main issues on which the United States and South Korea would need to coordinate policies in response to possible North Korean instability at each stage of an unfolding contingency, with a focus on different functional areas of cooperation. It will highlight immediate priority areas for U.S.-ROK cooperation, identifying lead agencies and mechanisms for cooperation, and potential points of conflict in U.S.-ROK efforts to manage instability in North Korea. The assessment will attempt to provide a long-term framework for understanding U.S.-ROK contingency planning for North Korea."
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November 4th, 2009
Shades Of Red: China's Debate Over North Korea
The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, writes, "While there is an ongoing debate on North Korea policy within Beijing policy circles reflective of divergent views of U.S.- China relations, overall there remains significant aversion to any move which might destablise China's periphery. Beijing therefore views the nuclear issue as a longer-term endeavour for which the U.S. is principally responsible, and continues to strengthen its bilateral relationship with North Korea."
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October 23rd, 2009
North Korea Inside Out: The Case for Economic Engagement
An Independent Task Force, convened by the Asia Society's Center on U.S.-China Relations and the University of California's Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, write, "Economic engagement should be a central part of U.S. strategy in dealing with Pyongyang, and is complementary to the current focus on solving the nuclear issue. Sanctions have a role in defending the U.S. against risks of proliferation, but they have not and cannot provide a long-run solution to the North Korean problem. Combining targeted sanctions with robust engagement, as the Obama administration is attempting to do with Iran and Burma, offers the best hope of changing the motivations and the actions of states that presently take a hostile stance toward the U.S. and the international community."
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Read a discussion of this article here.
September 3rd, 2009
Regional Multilateralism in Asia and the Korean Question
Wonhyuk Lim, Director of the Overseas Development Office of the Korea Development Institute, writes, "there appear to be basically two options for the United States, depending on what kind of relationship with China it envisions. One is to place South Korea within a hub and-spoke alliance against China, using the North Korean nuclear crisis as a catalyst. However, this policy is likely to find little support in South Korea and risks a nationalist backlash if the United States is increasingly viewed as an impediment to Korean unification and regional security... The other alternative is to deal with South Korea on more equal terms and engage it as a partner in building a new order in the region... This approach would not only strengthen the U.S. position in the Korean peninsula but also enhance its policy options in dealing with China and Japan."
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September 1st, 2009
Unbearable Legacies: The Politics of Environmental Degradation in North Korea
Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "There is no shortage of options, and an infinity of needs. And ways exist to work around the barriers that divide North Korea from the rest of the world. There's no time to wait, or these enduring legacies will become unbearable, and feed into a vortex of chaos and collapse in North Korea, with unimaginable consequences for humans and nature alike."
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June 23rd, 2009
North Korea: Getting Back to Talks
The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, writes, "While still preserving the Six-Party framework... the U.S. needs to talk to Pyongyang directly at the highest levels. At best this could result in a deal; at worst it might shed some light on North Korea's motivations and aspirations. High-level engagement may seem to be rewarding bad behaviour, but it is also the only way any agreement is likely to be reached."
ICG has also published supporting reports on North Koreans nuclear and missile program (available at: http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/09051BICG.pdf) and the DPRK's chemical and biological weapons program (available at: http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/09051CICG.pdf).
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June 17th, 2009
Full Text of UN Resolution 1874
This is the full text of United Nations Resolution 1874 which responded to the DPRK nuclear test of May 25, 2009. The text includes the full resolution as well as explanations of the statement by representatives from the United States, the People's Republic of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and other countries.
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May 28th, 2009
CTBTO's Initial Findings on the DPRK's Announced Nuclear Test
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization presented this early analysis of the May 25th, 2009 DPRK Nuclear Test. The report notes the magnitude and location of the seismic event as identified by 23 different seismic stations.
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April 30, 2009
North Korea: Unilateral and Multilateral Economic Sanctions and U.S. Department of Treasury Actions 1955-April 2009
Karin Lee and Julia Choi of the National Committee on North Korea (http://www.ncnk.org/ncnk) write, "all sides may find it a difficult and slow process to rebuild the momentum lost in the last half a year. It will take a great deal of effort for the promise of sanction reversals implied by US actions in October 2008 to overcome the new momentum of April 2009."
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April 2, 2009
Examining North Korea's Satellite Launch Vehicle
David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' (UCS) Global Security Program, notes that "between April 4 and April 8 North Korea will attempt to place a satellite into space using the Unha-2 launcher. While some have characterized this as a ballistic missile test, a successful satellite launch wouldn't necessarily demonstrate the ability to launch a nuclear warhead to intercontinental range. Modifications to increase the capability of the launcher pose both material and manufacturing challenges that North Korea may have yet to overcome."
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March 27, 2009
NOTAM: Impact Zones for the DPRK Satellite Launch
This is the full Notice to Mariners (NOTAM) for the anticipated DPRK satellite launch. The first impact zone is in the East Sea/Sea of Japan while the second is in the Pacific Ocean. The anticipated path of the launch is within 100 kilometers of the Rokkasho Nuclear Power Plant in Japan.
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March 26, 2009
Japan's Nuclear Policy Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and U.S. Interests
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Analyst in Nonproliferation, write, "Japanese officials and experts remain remarkably uniform in their consensus that Japan is unlikely to move toward nuclear status in the short-to-medium term. However, as the security environment has shifted significantly, the topic is no longer toxic and has been broached by several leading politicians."
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February 18, 2009
A New US Diplomatic Strategy toward North Korea
The Atlantic Council of the United States, non-partisan network of leaders who aim to promote constructive U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs, published this report "of its three-year project on U.S. policy toward North Korea. This report makes clear that unless President Obama adopts a new strategy of seeking a comprehensive settlement in Korea, the U.S. is unlikely to eliminate North Korea's nuclear program."
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January 21, 2009
Assistance to North Korea
Mark E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Analyst in Nonproliferation at the Congressional Research Service, describe US assistance to North Korea including energy, food, and other forms of aid. This report looks at the changes in the amount of this aid as well as the issues for the US congress on the provision of this assistance.
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October 9th, 2008
The North Korean Economy: Leverage and Policy Analysis
Dick K. Nanto, Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs in the Defense, and Trade Division, and Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs Foreign Affairs in the Defense, and Trade Division, produced this report for the Congressional Research Service. The report presents an overview of the DPRK economy and notes recent changes in the economy, information on DPRK economic reforms, and profiles the country's relationship with each of its major trade partners.
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July 29, 2008
Japan's Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and U.S. Interests
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, and Mary Beth Nikitin, Analyst in Nonproliferation at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, of the Congressional research Service, write, "The previous taboo within the Japanese political community of discussing a nuclear weapons capability appears to have been broken, as several officials and opinion leaders have urged an open debate on the topic. Despite these factors, a strong consensus - both in Japan and among Japan watchers - remains that Japan will not pursue the nuclear option in the short-to-medium term."
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May 15, 2008
Update on the Six-Party Talks
Steven A. Hildreth, Specialist in Missile Defense and Non-Proliferation in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade The U.S. Department of State released this report on May 9th detailing recent developments in the Six Party Talks process. The report notes, "Eight out of 11 agreed disablement activities at the three core facilities have been completed. Work on disablement activities continues... These actions have halted the DPRK's ability to produce additional weapons-grade plutonium for its nuclear weapons program."
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April 16, 2008
North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
Steven A. Hildreth, Specialist in Missile Defense and Non-Proliferation in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, writes, "Within possible range of the Taepo Dongs are
U.S. military facilities in Guam (3,500 km), Okinawa, and Japan... In this configuration, it is estimated that it could deliver a 700 - 1,000 kg warhead to a range of 2,500 km, which could put Japan and Okinawa within range. For the Taepo Dong 1 to achieve greater range its payload would have to be decreased. Some analysts speculate that a reduced payload configuration could deliver a 200 kg warhead into the U.S. center and a 100 kg warhead to Washington D.C., albeit with poor accuracy."
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February 7, 2008
North Korea-Russia Relations: A Strained Friendship
The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, writes, "Pyongyang wants Russia to balance China's growing influence but appears to recognise that Moscow will never provide the level of support it once did. The North has been keen to discuss economic cooperation but has lacked the political will to reform its economy sufficiently for foreign investment, even from a country as inured to corruption and government interference as Russia... there is unlikely to be much growth in bilateral cooperation unless the nuclear crisis is resolved peacefully, and the North opens its economy."
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January 30, 2008
North Korea: Terrorism List Removal?
Larry Niksch, Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, and Raphael Perl, Specialist in International Affairs at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, writes, "A second potential policy response might be to proceed with removing North Korea from either the terrorism list or the Trading with the Enemy Act in reciprocity for North Korea allowing completion of the disablement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, but hold back on removing North Korea from the other until North Korea fulfills its obligation for a declaration of its nuclear programs."
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December 20, 2007
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Latest Developments
Mary Beth Dunham Nikitin, Analyst in WMD Nonproliferation at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, writes, "Congress will have a clear role in considering U.S. funding for the disablement and decommissioning of North Korea's nuclear facilities, as well as other inducements for cooperation as agreed in the Six Party talks. For example, the President has submitted a request to Congress for $106 million "to provide Heavy Fuel Oil or an equivalent value of other assistance to North Korea on an 'action-for action' basis in support of the Six Party Talks in return for actions taken by North Korea on denuclearization" as part of the 2008 War Funding Request."
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November 7, 2007
The Re-Emergence of an Australian Nuclear Weapons Option?
Richard Tanter, Director of the Melbourne Office of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "Australian nuclear policy does indeed need to be reviewed. But such reconsideration of our current policy failures needs to be genuinely and comprehensively realist, informed by abiding commitments to the avoidance of nuclear next-use, and eschewing any suggestion that if our half-hearted arms control measures do not bear fruit, then Australia too will take the genocidal option, and once again and try to join the nuclear club."
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October 3, 2007
Second-Phase Actions for the Implementation of the September 2005 Joint Statement
The Second Session of the Sixth Round of the Six-Party Talks was held in Beijing among the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and the United States of America from 27 to 30 September 2007. The parties released this joint statement.
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Go to the U.S. State Department Response here.
September 7, 2007
The Proposed South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA)
William H. Cooper, Specialist in International Trade and Finance in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division at the Congressional Research Service, and Mark E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, describe the impact of the US-ROK Free Trade Agreement on the Kaesong Industrial Park. They write, "according to the details of the agreement released thus far, it appears the United States backed away from the principle of not ever expanding the KORUS FTA to North Korea-made products...[however] the United States would be able to control the decision to and pace of any move to grant preferential treatment to North Koreamade products."
To read the full report, please click here.
August 15, 2007
The Kaesong North-South Korean Industrial Complex
Dick K. Nanto, Specialist in Industry and Trade in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, and Mark E. Manyin, Analyst in Asian Affairs in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, write, "The United States currently has a mixed policy with respect to the KIC. Since South Korea is a close ally of the United States, Washington has been supportive of efforts by South Korea to engage the North in inter-Korean projects that benefit South Korea. On the other hand, the United States has been firm in predicating any economic or other concessions on actions by the DPRK to curtail or eliminate its nuclear program."
To read the full report, please click here.
July 25th, 2007
Missile Defence Response to the July 5, 2006 North Korean Missile Test by US Naval Vessels Home-Ported at Yokosuka
Umebayashi Hiromichi, Founder and President of Peace Depot, a non-profit organization for peace research and education in Japan, writes, "These operations by US naval vessels homeported in Yokosuka tasked with ballistic missile defence of the US itself is an absolutely new development, one not provided for under the Japan-USA Mutual Security Treaty. This matter must be fully discussed from the point of view of control of military activities by law in both the international and national spheres."
To read the full report, please click here.
June 7th, 2007
The North Korean Economy: Overview and Policy Analysis
Dick K. Nanto, Specialist in Industry and Trade Foreign Affairs, Defense at the Congressional Research Service, and Trade Division, and Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division at the Congressional Research Service, write, "U.S.-led financial sanctions on North Korea have disrupted that country's trade. In the six-party talks, economic assistance (including fuel oil) is a major bargaining chip. Economic policy options include increasing or easing economic sanctions, preventing
shipments of illicit cargo, normalizing relations with Pyongyang, negotiating a trade agreement, allowing the DPRK to join international financial institutions, and removing the country from the terrorism list."
To read the full report, please click here.
May 31st, 2007
Anticipating Six Party Energy Negotiations
Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director and David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, write, "In the long run... it is critical that a substantial fraction of the energy aid agreed to at the Six Party Talks result in developmental outcomes for the people living in the DPRK. Falling short of this goal will leave the DPRK highly insecure, and one of the essential girders of a non-nuclear future for the Korean Peninsula, the social and political stability of the DPRK, will collapse."
To read the full report, please click here.
May 30th, 2007
Fueling DPRK Energy Futures and Energy Security: 2005 Energy Balance, Engagement Options, and Future Paths
Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director and David von Hippel, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, write, "This document is intended to provide a best estimate, given available data, of an internally-consistent year 2005 energy supply/demand balance for the DPRK, as well as balances for previous years prepared with similar methodologies... As this report is being finalized, the representatives of the countries participating in the Six-Party Talks on the DPRK's nuclear program have come to an initial agreement on steps to be taken to address the differences between the parties. Provision of energy security is a critical element of a successful and robust resolution to the nuclear confrontation between the DPRK and the international community."
To read the full report, please click here.
Attachments are available here.
May 10th, 2007
Open Minds, Open Futures: How will Asia-Pacific Communities respond to Global Insecurity?
The Global Scenarios Workshop was convened by the Nautilus Institute at RMIT and Australia 21. This report from the workshop summarizes the narratives of the four scenarios developed at the workshop and uses these conceptions of the future to draw conclusions about threat perception, insecurity, and resiliency in the face of critical uncertainty. The report concludes that NGOs, civil society groups, and corporations all have an important role to play in issues of global problem solving and that "security is not an issue that can be left to governments alone."
To read the full report, please click here.
March 13th, 2007
The Forgotten Victims of the North Korean Crisis
Tessa Morris-Suzuki, Professor of Japanese History in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University and author of the forthcoming book Exodus to North Korea: Shadows from Japan’s Cold War, writes, "Today in Japan, relatives of those who "returned" to North Korea in the Cold War years watch the difficult process of nuclear diplomacy quietly but with intense concern… While the story of the Japanese kidnap victims has dominated news headlines, this tragic story of the 93,340 who were "returned" remains little known, and hostility to North Korea (as well as fears for the fate of relatives in the North) makes it difficult for the small group of survivors now living in Japan to raise their voices."
To read the full report, please click here.
February 27th, 2007
North Korea's Alleged Large-Scale Enrichment Plant: Yet Another Questionable Extrapolation Based on Aluminum Tubes
David Albright, President of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), writes, "Certainly, questions remain about North Korea's gas centrifuge program that must be resolved if an agreement is to move forward and nuclear dismantlement is to occur verifiably. But the flawed 2002 assessment must not be allowed to undermine this agreement or distort our reactions to declarations North Korea may make once it fulfills its obligations to dismantle its nuclear weapons program."
To read the full report, please click here.
February 13th, 2007
Initial Actions for the Implementation of the Joint Statement
Joint Statement from the Third Session of the Fifth Round of the Six-Party
Talks
The Third Session of the Fifth Round of the Six-Party Talks was held in
Beijing among the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's
Republic of Korea, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and
the United States of America from 8 to 13 February 2007. The delegations
agreed on this joint statement on February 13th, 2007.
To read the full report, please click here.
November 14th, 2006
Cuba 1962 and North Korea Now
Leon V. Sigal., director of the Northeast Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York and author of "Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea", writes, "Will President Bush give Kim Jong-il -- and himself -- a similar face-saving way out? He could start by urging banks that have frozen North Korea’s hard currency accounts to release the proceeds of its legitimate trade and then engage in sustained diplomatic give-and take for a change."
To read the full report, please click here.
November 9th, 2006
Global Nuclear Future: A Japanese Perspective
Tatsujiro Suzuki, Senior Research Scientist, Socio-economic Research Center, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), and Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, the University of Tokyo, writes, "The primary driving force behind Japan's reprocessing program is the management of spent nuclear fuel. The back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, i.e. management of spent fuel and waste, would pose significant financial, political, and social risks to Japan's nuclear power program. Japan should explore alternative socio-political solutions, including multinational approaches, to its complex spent fuel management issues."
To read the full report, please click here.
November 7th, 2006
The Plight of North Koreans in China and Beyond
The International Crisis Group an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, writes, "A loose network of makeshift shelters focused on humanitarian aid has evolved into a politically-charged but fragile underground railroad on which some North Koreans can buy safe passage to Seoul in a matter of days, while others suffer years of violence and exploitation. If they are to minimise the exploitation of the most vulnerable and enhance the much-needed aid this network delivers, concerned governments must commit to a sustainable solution."
To read the full report, please click here.
October 20, 2006
Technical Analysis of the DPRK Nuclear Test
Jungmin Kang, Science Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, and Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, write, "Having tested and failed, the DPRK can no longer rely on opacity as the basis for having a credible nuclear force, at least sufficiently credible to threaten its adversaries with a nuclear explosion. The DPRK might believe that a half kilotonne "mininuke" still provides it with a measure of nuclear deterrence and compellence; but it could not rely on other nuclear weapons states to perceive it to have anything more than an unusable, unreliable and relatively small nuclear explosive device."
To read the full report, please click here.
October 18, 2006
North Korea: Economic Sanctions and U.S. Treasury Department Actions, 1995-September, 2006
Julia Choi and Karin Lee, from the National Committee on North Korea (http://www.ncnk.org ), write, "According to the New York Times, prior to the nuclear test an anonymous U.S. official indicated that a North Korean test would trigger extensive U.S. sanctions: 'We'll end up going to full-scale sanctions; the only debate is what "full-scale" means.' With the adoption of Resolution 1718, the meaning of 'full-scale' should soon become clear."
To read the full report, please click here.
October 16, 2006
Full Text of United Nations Security Council Measure 1718
This is the full text of the United Nations Security Council Resolution passed in response to the DPRK nuclear test on October 9th, 2006. Also included is a summary of the response of North Korean Ambassador to the UN Pak Gil Yon to the resolution.
To read the full report, please click here.
September 26th, 2006
North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: Recent Energy Trends and Implications
Nathaniel Aden
Nathaniel Aden, researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, writes, "Whereas North Korean coal and electricity exports are sold at sub-market 'friendship prices,' Chinese coal and oil products have been sold to North Korea at premium prices… Chinese Customs data suggest that Beijing is taking a pragmatic, market-oriented approach to trade with its reclusive neighbor, while the increasingly asymmetrical energy embodiment of bilateral trade may reflect dilapidation of North Korea’s non-military industries."
To read the full report, please click here.
To see the presentation here.
June 21st, 2006
Political Fences & Bad Neighbors: North Korea Policy Making in Japan & Implications for the United States
James L. Schoff
James L. Schoff, Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, writes, "Japan’s policy decisions... are beyond Washington’s control, but they are not beyond its influence. Particularly as Japan prepares for a leadership change this fall, now is an opportune time for U.S. policy makers to take stock of current trends and to work with their Japanese colleagues to better incorporate North Korea policy into a larger regional framework that serves our collective long-term goals."
To read the full report, please click here.
May 26th, 2006
US Navy Set Missile Defence Operations Area in the Sea of Japan 190 Kilometres West of Okushiri: Japan as a Base for the Defense of the US Homeland
by Hiromichi Umebayashi
Hiromichi Umebayashi, Founder and President of Peace Depot, a non-profit organization for peace research and education in Japan, 'reports that a study using FOIA "has established for the first time the actual patrol patterns of the U.S. Navy Aegis destroyers in the Sea of Japan engaged in missile defense duties." Umebayashi concludes that "the plan is to integrate Aegis ships long-range surveillance and tracking data in the Sea of Japan, the interceptor missile launch control system and the battle management system. Accordingly, the Japan Sea patrols are a crucial component in exercises to develop the core of the whole integrated system US National Missile Defense system."
To read the full report, please click here.
May 2nd, 2006
US Misses-Mines-for-Nukes Opportunity
by Peter Hayes
Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, writes, “while the United States is chasing the DPRK regime's loose change in the short term to apply pressure, the regime is investing in minerals development, niche markets for exporting cheap labor or embodied labor, a boot-strapping service sector, and real estate development on the DMZ that combined, represent a long-term and slowly growing economic foundation for a nuclear-armed DPRK.”
To read the full report, please click here.
April 27th, 2006
Shifting Terrain: The Domestic Politics of the U.S. Military Presence in Asia
by Sheila A. Smith
Sheila A. Smith, research fellow in Politics, Governance, and Security in the East-West Center Research Program and project director of Shifting Terrain, writes, "to be successful new initiatives for managing the presence of American forces in each of these societies will need to conform to domestic law and meet public expectations for government accountability. National governments in Asia's democracies must balance their national security goals with these new norms of democratic practice."
To read the full report, please click here.
April 5th, 2006
Pyongyang's 'Unification' Market of Today
by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies
The Institute for Far Eastern Studies writes, “following DPRK leader Kim Jong Il's instruction in March 2003, which allowed for the transformation of farmers' markets into consolidated markets, the Unification Market opened as the largest market in Pyongyang on September 1st of the same year. With 1,500 booths spanning over 6000 sq. meters, the market is divided into three zones -- agriculture produce and fish products, food and clothing, and metal utensils and appliances -- with each zone housing a management office, money changer, and a food court, which offer a variety of conveniences to the customer.”
To read the full report, please click here.
March 30th, 2006
Interest Revived in the Sinuiju Special Administrative Region
by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies
The Institute for Far Eastern Studies describes the current developments in constructing the Sinuiju Special Administrative Region in the DPRK near the PRC border. “Under the direction of central authorities, foreign currency management groups are rapidly being moved into Sinuiju, while ordinary residents are being relocated to other regions only to be replaced by residents of Pyongyang and other areas who are in the process of moving in.”
To read the full report, please click here.
March 23rd, 2006
U.S. Assistance to North Korea: Fact Sheet
CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities
by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies
The Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute
for International Studies (MIIS) composed this report that answers
key questions about North Korea's ballistic missiles and presents
estimates of their missile capabilities.
To read the full report, please click
here
February 14th, 2006
U.S. Assistance to North Korea: Fact Sheet
Mark Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, prepared this report on US aid to the DPRK. The report details food aid, KEDO assistance, and medical aid over the last 10 years. The report also summarizes changes in World Food Program (WFP) operations, the termination of the KEDO project, and the impact of the North Korean Human Rights Act on US assistance to the DPRK.
To read the full report, please click here.
February 7th, 2006
China and North Korea: Comrades Forever?
The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, that works through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, write “Although it cannot deliver a rapid end to Pyongyang’s weapons program, China must still be an integral component of any strategy with a chance of reducing the threat of a nuclear North Korea…Over the long-term, Chinese economic interaction with the North may be the best hope for sparking deeper systemic reform and liberalisation there.”
To read the full report, please click here.
January 24th, 2006
North East Asia's Undercurrents of Conflict
The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, that works through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, write “resolving territorial and historical disputes that have been building for decades will not be easy or quick but failure at least to ameliorate them risks undermining the peace and prosperity of the region.”
To read the full report, please click here.
January 19th, 2006
The "Sopranos State"? North Korean Involvement in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security
Sheena E. Chestnut, MPhil student in International Relations at Oxford University and graduate of Stanford University's International Security Studies honors program, writes "Although interdiction remains a useful counter-proliferation tool, the potentially multi-use nature of criminal networks suggests that interdiction is insufficient in addressing the risks of nuclear smuggling from North Korea. the effectiveness of this kind of deterrence may rest as much on a sophisticated understanding of North Korean participation in illicit networks as on the notorious difficulties of interdiction. For these reasons, identifying and limiting North Korean involvement in illicit activity must remain a key component of U.S. policy toward the D.P.R.K."
To read the full report, please click here.
January 10th, 2006
Looking for Mr. X: North Korea’s Successor
Brent Choi, a North Korea Specialist at the Joongang Daily, writes “most of the reports on North Korea’s successor are 99% wrong. Kim Jong-il’s sons might not even make it to the list of candidates. In order to become a successor the prospective leader will have to prove oneself in enhancing both economy and ideology. The winner “Mr. X” will sooner or later emerge at the front seat of the power through generation shifts after winning the tacit approval and confirmation from political elites. That precise timing will be in accordance with the seventh Party Convention. Let’s just continue to keep a close eye on the North for 2-3 years more.
To read the full report, please click here.
December 6th, 2005
Technical Summary of DPRK Nuclear Program
Siegfried S. Hecker, currently at the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation, presented this technical summary of the DPRK nuclear program at the 2005 Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference. The report contains a survey of North Korean nuclear facilities. Hecker provides an update on the status of the 5 MWe Yongbyon reactor, the 50MWe Yongbyon reactor, and the 200MWe Taechon reactor. Hecker concludes by suggesting that the “DPRK is moving full-speed ahead with nuclear weapons program.”
To read the full report, please click here.
November 3rd, 2005
North Korea’s State Ration System
Bong Dae Choi and Kab Woo Koo, researchers at Kyungnam University, write: “The mid- to late-80s saw the sidelining of farmers' markets due to government regulations while at the same time, saw the emergence of black markets increase their importance. The presiding factors over the sideline activities and reemergence of farmers' markets were the physical change in the state distribution system and the binding power of the intangible anti-market sentiment… We will have to wait and see how the latest reversal in policy is seen by the marketeers of North Korea.”
To read the full report, please click here.
November 1st, 2005
South Korea's Blueprint for Economic Cooperation with the DPRK
The Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University released this report on inter-Korean economic cooperation. The report states: “As a joint agreement founded on the goal of resolving the North Korean nuclear issues has been adopted, in South Korea, the spotlight will now largely shine on South Korea's plans for developing inter-Korean economic cooperation.
To read the full report, please click here.
October 27th, 2005
DPRK 2004 Nutrition Assessment Report of Survey Results
The Central Bureau of Statistics, Institute of Child Nutrition of the DPRK in collaboration with UNICEF and WFP, released this report on nutrition in the DPRK. The report states: “The most common source of staple foods was the PDC rations or Farmers rations, but a quarter of the households reported WFP foods as a source of their staple food. The most common sources of beans were farmer’s rations, self production, markets, kin support and WFP foods. The sources of fruits and vegetables were state shops, markets, self production and farmer’s rations. WFP foods were not a source of these foods.”
To read the full report, please click here.
October 25th, 2005
DPRK Markets: A Defector's Perspective
The Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University released this report on the status of markets in the DPRK. The report states: “However, as North Koreans gradually become more quality- conscious, Chinese-made goods will loose market strength, especially as better quality imports -- such as those from South Korea, which are imported on a limited basis -- begin to raise the awareness of North Koreans.”
To read the full report, please click here.
October 20th, 2005
The North Korean Plutonium Stock Mid-2005
The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) released this report on the DPRK’s plutonium stock and its means to produce and separate plutonium. The report states: “Assuming that the recently unloaded fuel has not yet been separated, the DPRK has about 15-38 kilograms of separated plutonium. At 4-5 kilograms of plutonium per weapon, this plutonium is enough for 3-9 nuclear weapons.”
To read the full report, please click here.
September 20th, 2005
Full Text of Six-nation Statement on North Korea
This is the full text of the joint statement issued at the close of the fourth round of six-party talks.
To read the full report, please click here.
September 9th, 2005
Opening the Debate on U.S.-China Nuclear Relations
Eric Hagt and Chen Yali, World Security Institute China Program, writes: “China is a rising power, and the paramount task of both China and the United States is to adjust to that impending reality in terms of economic and trade relations, but also in terms of Taiwan and the two nations’ strategic policies. A heavy responsibility falls on China to assure the region and the world that its rise won’t constitute a threat to others; that it is a force for stability rather than a revisionist power … On the other hand, the United States must deeply reflect on its own policies toward China, as the latter evolves as a regional and potential world power.”
To read the full report, please click here.
September 7th, 2005
Thinking the Unthinkable: Japanese Nuclear Power and Proliferation in East Asia
Frank Barnaby, Nuclear Issues Consultant to Oxford Research Group (ORG), and Shaun Burnie, Coordinator of Greenpeace International nuclear campaigns, write: “’Treat nothing as inevitable’ is a good principle to live one’s life by. Unfortunately, in the case of Japan’s nuclear development, it may not be sufficient. The international community – read governments - will learn to live with Japanese nuclear weapons if that occasion arises. The consequences would of course be terrible for Northeast Asia. Pressure in South Korea to respond would be huge, relations with China could become disastrous, and the global nuclear non-proliferation regime centred around the NPT reduced to a historical footnote.”
To read the full report, please click here.
September 1st, 2005
New Security Challenges and Opportunities in East Asia: Views from the Next Generation
This report by CSIS Pacific Forum collects the results of the forum’s Young Leaders Program which seeks to, “bring talented young professionals, working on the particular subjects of our meetings, to the table to enrich our discussions and to provide them with the opportunity to acquire on-the-job training and exposure to individuals and ideas that they might only otherwise encounter in books.”
To read the full report, please click here.
August 30th, 2005
Address by President Roh Moo-hyun on the 60th Anniversary of National Liberation
South Korea President Roh Moo-hyun delivered this speech on the 60th anniversary of Korean liberation. President Roh said: “History now gives us another calling. It is none other than putting an end to the history of divisiveness and opening an age of national unity. It is also to build a springboard to overcome the age of national division and usher in a new age of national unification for peace and prosperity.”
To read the full report, please click here.
August 23rd, 2005
North Korea’s Strategic Intentions
Andrew Scobell, an Associate Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Dickinson College, writes: “North Korea’s rulers are influenced by history, ideology, and notions of nationalism that produce what social scientists like to term a “bounded rationality.” The author’s conclusion is that North Korea’s senior leaders are determined and confident that they will not only survive but that they will be able to restore and revitalize their regime.”
To read the full report, please click here.
August 11th, 2005
A Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (NEA-NWFZ)
Hiromichi Umebayashi, President of the Peace Depot Japan, and International Coordinator for the Pacific Campaign for Disarmament & Security (PCDS), writes: “The objectives of a NWFZ include not only limiting nuclear weapons, but also making a significant contribution to maintaining international peace and security in areas with varied historical backgrounds, some with long-standing disputes.”
To read the full report, please click here.
August 9th, 2005
Multilateral Dialogue to Resolve the North Korean Nuclear Issue
Donald S. Zagoria, Project Director for Northeast Asia Projects at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP), wrote this summary report from the 3rd Conference on Northeast Asian Security Co-sponsored by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) and the DPRK Institute for Disarmament and Peace (DPRK IDP). The report states: “it is unclear whether North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons program. But in the next year or two, there will be an opportunity to test that country’s intentions through a serious diplomatic effort. A well-organized and well-focused Track 1.5 effort could play an important role in assisting the official U.S. effort.”
To read the full report, please click here.
July 21st, 2005
South Korea’s Power Play at the Six-Party Talks
The Nautilus Institute released this report analyzing the ROK offer of 2 Gigawatts of energy aid to the DPRK as part of the six party talks. The report suggests, “that the participants at the six-party talks should consider the full scope of activities needed to implement the South Korean scheme; that they should explore an alternative approach that would link the Russian and South Korean grids, thereby achieving the same outcome at lower cost and lesser political risk; and that the six parties should consider adopting a short-term, alternative package rather than resuming HFO deliveries to the DPRK because this approach would provide more energy services, faster, and at lower risk and cost to give immediate substance to statements of longer –term intention to supply assistance to the DPRK. We further suggest that these issues be explored with the North Koreans at the six-party talks at a subsequent technical working group before major commitments are made to proceeding with the South Korean proposal.”
To read the full report, please click here.
July 13th, 2005
Building Multi-Party Capacity for a WMD-Free Korean Peninsula
The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) released this final report from their Multilateral Workshop, held in Shanghai and cosponsored by the Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS), part of IFPA's Building Six-Party Capacity Project (http://www.ifpa.org/projects/carnrok.htm). The report states: “Ultimately, it matters less exactly what form the capacity-building effort assumes. Instead the most important factor is that collective discussion be initiated and expanded among a wider range of functional activities, and preferably away from media attention and with minimal political interference.”
To read the full report, please click here.
June 30th, 2005
The Kims' Obsession: Archives Show Their Quest To Preserve the Regime
Robert Litwak, a National Security Council staff member in the mid-1990s and director of international studies at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, and Kathryn Weathersby, a senior associate of the center's Cold War International History Project and coordinator of its Korea Initiative, which obtained the documents cited in this article, wrote: “The Bush administration cannot ground its negotiations with North Korea on the assumption -- or vain hope -- that the regime is in danger of imminent collapse. Despite economic implosion and famine, that regime has proved far more durable than anyone expected.”
To read the full report, please click here.
June 16th, 2005
Foreign Assistance to North Korea
Mark Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, wrote: “Congress and the Administration have a variety of options for future assistance to North Korea. Given the suspension of the KEDO project, the immediate decisions will revolve around food aid, particularly given increased demand for food assistance from other areas of the world. Additionally, if talks with North Korea over its nuclear program begin and score a breakthrough, there will likely be consideration of a broader economic assistance package.”
To read the full report, please click here.
June 9th, 2005
Interview with Christopher Hill
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill, interviewed by Cheong Wook Sik, a representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea (CNPK), stated: “I think we made it very clear that we are prepared to give all kinds of security assurances [to the DPRK]. And we are willing to do those in the context of multilateral security -- in guarantees. If the North Koreans want something else, then they should sit at the table and tell us.”
To read the full interview, please click here.
June 2nd, 2005
Anticipating a North Korean Nuclear Test: What’s to Be Done to Avert a Further Crisis
Dan Fata, Republican Party Committee Policy Director for National Security and Trade, writes: “It is not too late to avert a North Korean nuclear test. However, the key to preventing a nuclear test lies primarily with China. The PRC must be made to understand that its failure to convince North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons program will have dramatic effects on China’s relationship with the United States and its own neighbors and, ultimately, on its own security.”
To read the full report, please click here.
May 26th, 2005
Report on U.S. Assistance Provided Inside North Korea
US AID, in this report to Congress required by the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004, discusses US aid to the DPRK though the World Food Program. It also discusses aid given in response to the April 2004 Ryongchon blast and the April 2005 Bird Flu Outbreak.
To read the full report, please click here.
May 24th, 2005
Report on U.S. Humanitarian Assistance to North Koreans
US AID, in this report to Congress required by the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004, discusses US humanitarian assistance to the DPRK though the World Food Program, noting problems in meeting international standards for WFP distribution as well as attempts to improve transparency, monitoring, and access in the DPRK. It also discusses assistance given in response to the April 2004 Ryongchon blast and the April 2005 Bird Flu Outbreak.
To read the full report, please click here.
May 3rd, 2005
Defense Intelligence Agency Says North Korea has Nuclear Armed Missiles
Peter Hayes
Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, complied this summary of recent events and analysis of the DPRK’s nuclear capability following the testimony from Vice Admiral Lowell F. Jacoby that North Korea has the capacity to arm their missiles with a nuclear device and his political assessment that it was unlikely that North Korea would be willing to surrender or trade away its full nuclear capacity.
To read the full report, please click here.
April 5th, 2005
Report Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction
The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States
The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States
released this report to the President of the United States regarding US
intelligence assessments regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.
To read the full report, please click: here.
March 31th, 2005
World Food Programme Press Conference on the DPRK
Tony Banbury
Tony Banbury, WFP Regional Director for Asia, said: “There were three main themes that emerged in my mind from this trip. The first is that the people in the DPRK are still in great need of food aid … The second main theme I’d like to share with you is that the situation, in terms of the amount of WFP food aid going into the country these past several months, has been very good…. The last issue that is very important to touch upon is the issue of monitoring, and WFP’s operating conditions…. they [the DPRK government] started putting more limits, as of September of last year, on our operating conditions, on our monitoring.”
To read the full report, please click: here.
March 29th, 2005
North Korean Refugees in China: A Human Rights Perspective
James D. Seymour
James D. Seymour, is a research scholar at Columbia University and the coauthor of New Ghosts, Old Ghosts. Prisons and Labor Reform Camps in China, writes: “In the wake of the North Korean famine, which began in 1995, hundreds of thousands of people fled to northeast China… They face two main problems. First is the mistreatment they sometimes receive… Secondly, Chinese authorities take the position, at least implicitly, that their obligation to return these people to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea supersedes any obligations they would have under the international human rights covenants and refugee conventions.”
To read the full report, please click: here.
March 15th, 2005
The Structure of North Korea’s Political Economy: Changes and Effects
Young-Sun Lee and Deok Ryong Yoon
Young-Sun Lee, Professor of Economics at Yonsei University, and Deok Ryong Yoon, research fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KEIP), write: “To make sure that North Korea does not return to its past state, more people must continue to show interest in the market system development in the North. Investment in various forms will help enlarge the basement for international cooperation as well.”
To read the full report, please click: here.
February 14th, 2005
DPRK 'Manufactured' Nuclear Weapons, To 'Suspend' 6-Way Talks for 'Indefinite Period'
Korean Central Broadcasting Station
The following statement was broadcast over radio and television in the DPRK on February 10, 2005. We are distributing this text to NAPSNet readers in addition to the text of the KCNA statement of the same date [see: http://www.nautilus.org/napsnet/dr/2005/feb/ndr10feb05.html] because a careful reading will show that this text is more strongly stated in some respects than the KCNA version. Pitched at a domestic audience, this statement suggests a higher degree of committal to non-participation in future six party talks and may not be rhetorical bluster or a tactical maneuver, as some (including US Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice) have suggested.
It also suggests that the DPRK leadership is now highly committed to nuclear weapons in terms of its domestic legitimacy and ideological framework, and that it now would be quite difficult to abandon this unifying theme after having announced it so loudly and clearly to its own population.
To read the full report, please click: here.
February 10th, 2005
Not So Fast
by Jon Wolfsthal
Jon Wolfsthal, Associate and Deputy Director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), writes: “It is possible that North Korea can produce limited amounts of UF6, and the evidence of North Korea’s previous attempts to purchase uranium enrichment technology through the A.Q. Khan supply network seems credible. However, the link between Libya and North Korea appears tenuous, based on what is publicly known.”
To read the full report, please click: here.
January 20th, 2005
Democracy and National Security in South Korea: The Song Du Yol Affair
by Kajimura Tai'ichiro
Kajimura Tai'ichiro, an independent Japanese journalist, human rights activist, and historian, long resident in Berlin, writes: The South Korean media pronounced him [Song Du Yol] the biggest ever catch under the web of this anti-communist law. Yet at the same time his fate was seen as inseparable from that of this legislation, so that the moment when he is eventually found not guilty is likely also to be the moment when the life of the National Security Law comes to an end.
To read the full report, please click: here.
December 20th, 2004
Korea Backgrounder: How the South Views its Brother from Another Planet
The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, writes: it is not true, as alarmists on the right sometimes claim that South Korea is being taken down the path of socialism. Today's young people have a dual mindset about North Korea: they are more accepting of dialogue with the regime but do not embrace the system. However, as moderates are being drowned out by the more vocal extremes, these subtle distinctions are being lost.
To read the full report, please click: here.
December 7th, 2004
Ending the North Korean Nuclear Crisis
by the Task Force on U.S. Korea Policy
The Task Force on U.S. Korea Policy, co-sponsored by the Center for International Policy and the Center for East Asian Studies of the University of Chicago, writes: Given greater trust the United States would find it easier than in earlier years to negotiate an agreement with North Korea that would end its development of long-range missiles capable of delivering nuclear, chemical or biological weapons to U.S. territory. Similarly, Japan and South Korea would find it easier to negotiate agreements with Pyongyang that would head off the escalating competitive development of short-range and medium-range missiles.
To read the full report, please click: here.
November 23, 2004
North Korea: Where Next for the Nuclear Talks?
by the International Crisis Group
The International Crisis Group, an independent, non-profit, multinational organization, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict, wrote: Talks with North Korea are never easy. There is some skepticism that Pyongyang will never accept a deal, however objectively reasonable. The only way to find out once and for all is to offer it one that at least all five other parties see as such. And that will require more being put on the table than has been the case so far.
To read the full report, please click: here.
September 10, 2004
Power Grid Interconnection for a Nuclear Free Korean Peninsula
by Jungmin Kang
Jungmin Kang, an independent nuclear policy analyst in Seoul and Associate of the Nautilus Institute, writes: Via the implementation of the ROK-DPRK-RFE power grid interconnection, the energy support to the DPRK could get the DPRK involved in the multilateral energy cooperation system, reduce political tension around the Korean peninsula, and thereby bring a positive effect in resolving the DPRK nuclear conundrum.
To read the full report, please click: here.
October 18, 2004
The South Korean Laser Isotope Separation Experience
by Mark Gorwitz
Mark Gorwitz, Special Contributor to the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) Online, writes: Taken as a whole, the open literature shows the extent of South Korean research in the area of laser isotope separation. Technology learned in one enrichment program has been successfully transferred to another. The undeclared uranium enrichment experiments have been the main beneficiary of such a transfer and are a proliferation concern that deserves to be thoroughly examined by the IAEA.
To read the full report, please click: here.
September 10, 2004
South Korea's Nuclear Mis-Adventures
by Jungmin Kang, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Peter Hayes
The following is a paper by Jungmin Kang, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Peter Hayes.
Jungmin Kang is an independent nuclear policy analyst in Seoul and Associate of Nautilus Institute;
Tatsujiro Suzuki is a nuclear analyst affiliated with University of Tokyo in Tokyo;
Peter Hayes is Director of Nautilus Institute in San Francisco.
To read the full report, please click: here.
September 9, 2004
Will the South's Uranium Enrichment Test Affect the North Korean Nuclear Issue?
by Cheong Wook-Sik
The following is a paper by Cheong Wook-Sik, representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea. Cheong Wook-Sik writes, "in a situation in which finding a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue has been difficult enough, it seems clear that with the appearance of the South Korean uranium enrichment issue, the six-party talks have run into yet another potential problem. There is room, however, to turn this misfortune into a blessing.”
To read the full report, please click: here.
August 10, 2004
Unlikely Partners in the Quest for Juche: Humanitarian Aid Agencies in North Korea
by Edward P. Reed
This special report by Edward P. Reed, the Associate Director of the Center for East Asian Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, was presented at the 2004 Workshop: “Towards a Peaceful Resolution with North Korea: Crafting a New International Engagement Framework” in Washington D.C. The workshop, which ran from February 12-13, 2004, was hosted by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), in cooperation with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Reed argues that, “aid agencies must negotiate interventions that are development-oriented, while at same time employing an operational style that builds the institutional and personal trust on which acceptable levels of accountability are based.”
To read the full report, please click: here.
This article may be found at:
http://www.kiep.go.kr/project/workshop.nsf/0/9CA26C701C3FCCCE49256E3F002262C4/$file/Reed.pdf/Reed.pdf
July 27, 2004
Excerpt from “Dealing With North Korea’s Nuclear Programs”
Statement by James A. Kelly
This statement by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James A. Kelly was made to the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on July 15th. The statement summarized publicly for the first time the seven-page U.S. proposal presented to North Korea at the most recent Beijing negotiations.
To the read statement.
July 13, 2004
"China’s Role in the Course of North Korea Transition”
by Liu Ming
This special report by Liu Ming, professor at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, was presented at the 2004 Workshop: “Towards a Peaceful Resolution with North Korea: Crafting a New International Engagement Framework” in Washington D.C. The workshop, which ran from February 12-13, 2004, was hosted by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), in cooperation with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). In this paper Professor Liu examines the changing relationship between the PRC and the DPRK noting, “the nuclear crisis offers a chance for China to increase its influence on North Korea and adjusts its traditional relations with and approach to the North.”
To read the full report, please click: here.
This article may be found at: http://www.kiep.go.kr/project/workshop.nsf/0/F0B574A83D21524649256E3F0025237C/$file/Liu.pdf
July 8, 2004
"Designing Public Capital Mobilization Strategies for DPRK”
by Bradley O. Babson
This special report by Bradley O. Babson, an Asian specialist and former World Bank official, was presented at the 2004 Workshop: “Towards a Peaceful Resolution with North Korea: Crafting a New International Engagement Framework” in Washington D.C. The workshop, which ran from February 12-13, 2004, was hosted by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), in cooperation with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). In this presentation Babson gives an excellent summary of the methods of mobilizing capital for the DPRK. This presentation notes the intricacy of the relationship between political and economic issues in the DPRK. Babson also emphasizes the need for open dialogue between nations to support such an endeavor.
To read the full report, please click: here.
This article may be found at: http://www.kiep.go.kr/project/workshop.nsf/0/1B4202A0D4027DE649256E3F00221C4B/$file/Babson.pdf/Babson.pdf
May 25, 2004
"North Korea's Uranium Exports: Much Ado About Something"
By Peter Hayes
In this special report, Peter Hayes provides basic information on North Korea's uranium industry. He concludes that the main significance of the reported export of North Korean uranium to Libya is not that the DPRK exported uranium, a material that is available from many suppliers around the world, but rather, the fact that it has already developed an important prerequisite for enriching its own uranium.
This special report is accompanied by three documents that provide new insight into the support for North Korea's uranium mining industry from the IAEA and western companies.
To read the full report, please click: here.
