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Jan.-Mar. 2003 |
Myrtle L. Atkinson Foundation Awards Pegasus Project $5000
The Myrtle L. Atkinson Foundations awarded Nautilus Institute's The Pegasus
Project $5000 for general program support. Funds provided will be applied
toward Project Lifeskills. Project Lifeskills strives to help build a strong
foundation of life skills for at-risk and disadvantaged youth through series
of day sails and overnight voyages aboard a 51' ketch. Partner organizations
participating in Project Lifeskills include The Berkeley Boosters and Alisa
Ann Ruch Burn Foundation.
Glosserman Asserts "Grand Bargain" As Only Real Solution to DPRK Nuclear
Crisis
The Nautilus Institute's DPRK Policy Forum published an essay by the director of research at Pacific Forum CSIS Brad Glosserman who argues that any real
solution to the North Korean nuclear crisis will ultimately be a "Grand
Bargain" with military, economic, political, and diplomatic components. One
possibility is the formulation of a Korean Peninsula Nuclear Verification
Regime. His essay can be found: here.
Hayes Argues for the Importance of Grid Interconnection in Northeast Asia
Dr. Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, discussed power grid interconnection in Northeast Asia and why it is vital to the mission
of the Korean Peninsula Economic Development Organization (KEDO). Dr. Hayes discussed grid interconnectivity and how it may play a key role in bringing stability to the Korean Peninsula in the June 2003 issue of Nuclear
Engineering International.
Pegasus Orientation Attracts New Volunteers
A Pegasus Project crew orientation on Saturday, June 14 attracted new and experienced volunteers. Crew orientations are led by Pegasus Training Captain Bill Proctor in an effort to introduce sailors to the project and to teach safe sailing with youth aboard Pegasus. Saturday's orientation was the first of two offered in June.
Northern California Grant Makers Funds Pegasus Summer Event
The Pegasus Project was awarded a grant from the Northern California Grant Makers to fund an awards ceremony for Project Lifeskills participants. Partner organizations that participate in the Project Lifeskills series include the Berkeley Boosters and Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation. Each of the three Lifeskills series that are scheduled to take place this summer will instill confidence and reinforce life skills in participants through day sails and overnight voyages.
Hayes Argues for Dual Denuclearization and Development for DPRK
On June 10, 2003, Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation from Seoul, South Korea, interviewed Peter Hayes on a range of historical and current nuclear issues relating to Korea. Peter said that: "The United States has to denuclearize and deterrorize North Korea at the same time. President Bush has nearly run out of time. He should tell Kim Jong Il that he has to show
his anti-terrorist credentials now in order to get off the US terrorist listing and to get an economy as a result. Then, you slowly denuclearize North Korea as North Korea gradually gets an economy in return."
Heiskanen Explains Linking North Korean and EU Railways
The 2nd annual EU-Korea Conference will be held in Barcelona on June 26 and 27, 2003. Former Deputy Policy Planning Director at the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Markku Heiskanen is set to give a keynote address on the topic of North Korea and Eurasian railways. His paper published by the Nautilus institute in the North Korea Policy Forum entitled "A Multilateral Scenario For Korea; The Role Of The European Union" will also be circulated as a conference paper.
Burn Survivors Complete Day Three of Summer Sailing Series
Compton Foundation Awards Nautilus $45,000 for North Korea Briefing Book
The Compton Foundation awarded the Nautilus Institute a $45,000 grant in support of Phase I of the North Korea Briefing Book. The Briefing Book will contain an overarching set of policy recommendations for the US regarding North Korea and various contingencies. Phase I of the Briefing Book will also include the initial set of tabs that addresses critical topics on North Korea (ranging from technical aspects of monitoring and verification to role of allies and other powers such as China and Russia, to refugees, human rights, and humanitarian aid). Phase I of the North Korea Briefing Book will be available online in the coming weeks.
North Korean Hackers Unlikely A Major Threat
A Wired Magazine article on North Korean military hackers directed readers to Peter Hayes’ essay on North Korea’s information strategy and cited him on North Korea’s military hackers: "I'm sure they can get into some systems at a low level and maybe divert some things," said Hayes. "But in the big picture, a few hackers are not going to stop the flow of American men and material in a major war in Korea." On the other hand, North Korea's highly centralized IT systems are prone to "amplifying and propagating bad military decisions" and are an easy target for physical attacks by smart bombs and other means, according to Hayes.
Hayes Argues for Re-examination of US-DPRK Strategic Goals
Peter Hayes delivered a video-teleconference briefing to the Australian Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies in Canberra on "The Principal Drivers of Security Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula: Internal Factors and Influences."
New Crew Learn Sailing Safety aboard Pegasus
During a crew orientation for the Pegasus Project, new volunteers learned the basics of sailing safely with youths aboard. Led by training captain Bill Proctor, the group, which included experienced Pegasus volunteer crew, practiced person overboard drills and crew position responsibilities to ensure safe and successful youth voyages.
Experts Formulate North Korean Nuclear Scenarios
On May 29, 30th 2003, North Korea experts convened at the Nautilus Institute for the 2nd annual North Korea Scenarios Workshop. The two-day workshop identified specific policies and strategies for peacefully resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis. An executive summary and a report containing the scenarios will be posted shortly. The 2003 North Korea Scenarios Workshop was funded by the Korea Foundation. To read the report of last year's workshop "Scenarios for the Future of U.S.-North Korean Relations: Engagement, Containment, or Rollback?" go here.
Hayes Calls for Boa Constrictor Strategy
Speaking at the Commonwealth Club of California on May 27, 2003, Peter Hayes said that of six strategies that the United States can apply to North Korea, only one might work to achieve President Bush's goal of denuclearizing North Korea without a war. "A 'scalpel' strategy of surgical attacks on their nuclear facilities cannot ensure we are hitting their fissile materials. A 'nutcrucker' strategy that tries to induce a military coup against the Kim regime may fail or, worse, result in an even more reactionary regime esalating to a civil war. A 'sledgehammer' strategy to crush North Korea by all-out military attack would work, but involves vast destruction and possible use of weapons of mass destruction. A 'black hole' strategy that squeezes North Korea until it collapses is very dangerous because control of its nuclear capacities could be lost altogether, with untold consequences for Seoul or elsewhere. Simply ignoring and keeping our distance from the White Hot Deathstar won't work either--they will simply proceed to acquire nuclear weapons. That leaves only the 'boa constrictor' strategy--embracing North Korea and transforming it by unleashing precision-guided markets and non-governmental organizations to transform North Korea slowly, inside out. That strategy might work provided it is buttressed with strong external deterrence," he concluded.
Lee and Ouellette Argue for Multilateral Energy Sector Solution to DPRK Nuclear Issue
The Nautilus Institute's Policy Forum published a paper entitled, "Tackling DPRK's Nuclear Issue through Multilateral Cooperation in the Energy Sector," by Su-Hoon Lee and Dean Ouellette of Kyungnam University. Lee and Ouellette argue that energy sector cooperation may provide the most sound and politically acceptable solution to the DPRK nuclear issue. The paper examines Northeast Asian regional energy cooperation by reviewing North Korea's energy situation, the problems associated with KEDO, and the various regional positions toward North Korea and it's energy sector. To read the essay, click: here.
Pegasus Crew Relives Excitement of Master Mariners Regatta
The Pegasus crew set out on Saturday, May 24, 2003 in hopes of distinguishing itself in the Master Mariners Regatta. However, the crew's efforts were stemmed by erratic winds and tides. Nonetheless, the Pegasus crew displayed astounding resourcefulness as the choppy conditions demanded split-second decisions based on the crew's savvy maritime knowledge.
Culver Pushes for Expanded Humanitarian Access in North Korea
Nautilus published as a Special Report a memorandum by Co-founder and Senior Vice President of Mercy Corps International, Ellsworth Culver, that
was prepared for the Task Force on U.S. Korea Policy that convened in Washington on January 9, 2003. Culver writes that China ought to declare a moratorium on the forced return of North Korean migrants
and asylum seekers, pending a more durable and humane solution. Culver also
argues that North Korea should repeal all laws that penalize citizens
for leaving its territory or returning without authorization. The full
memorandum can be read here.
Hayes Says Bush Can Break WMD-terrorism Link in North Korea
In a speech to the Global Lecture Series on Asia at the Sonoma State University
Lifelong Learning Institute on May 20, 2003, Peter Hayes asserted that "When President Bush decides it's time to deal with the DPRK, he doesn't need to go to Congress for a dime. He just needs to get out of Kim Jong Il's face. That is, he just needs to take the DPRK off the US terrorist
listing--an executive prerogative--so that the US can shift the cost burden
of kick-starting the DPRK economic recovery to Japan ($10 billion
reparations via World Bank) in return for DPRK nuclear dismantlement."
"Why should the President do this?" Hayes asked. "Because he must not let
the North Koreans retain either their terrorist or their nuclear
capabilities. Just getting their nuclear weapons capacities isn't enough;
and going after only their nuclear weapons won't work."
"If I were President," Hayes stated, "I would charge them a high price for
getting an economy. To get off of my list of terrorist states, they would have
to hand over their rolodex of terrorist contacts and sign up in the global
war on terrorism, to be judged by actions not words. Of course, they would
also have to stop their exports of drugs, small arms, plastic explosives,
and hand over the plates they use to make counterfeit dollars laundered by
global terrorist organizations."
"Bush could sell that deal to the radical Republicans because then he would
truly break the WMD-terrorist linking in the DPRK by getting both sides of
that equation, not just dancing a Viennese waltz that would re-impose IAEA
safeguards leaving in place a nuclear-capable terrorist state with malign
motivations toward the United States."
Young Burn Survivors Continue Pegasus Sailing Series
On Saturday May 17, 2003, young adults from Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation continued to explore some of the basics of seamanship during the second in
a series of Lifeskills sails aboard Pegasus. The series includes three day-long training voyages and culminates in an overnight voyage requiring the youth to use the skills that they have acquired to assist the crew. Volunteers that participated on Saturday included: Captain Mark Caplin,
Mate Christine Albertsen, Dan Edwards, Nancy Navarro, and Tom Jeramiason.
Moon Urges U.S. to Transform North Korea via Engagement
In an open letter to United States President George W. Bush, Moon Chung-in, Professor of Political Science at Yonsei University in Seoul, urges that
the most effective way of resolving the North Korean issue is not through
invoking ultimatums, but by recognizing and engaging it. Moon's letter is
a part of the Nautilus Institute's Policy Forum Online. Another essay by Ruediger Frank, Visiting Professor at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute of Columbia University, entitled "North Korea: 'Gigantic Change' and a Gigantic Chance," was also published on May 9, 2003.
Take Risks to Promote Peace, Argues Ahmad
At the Forum on Business and Peace: Building a Positive Human Future organized by Natural Strategies, Zulfiqar Ahmad stressed the need for businesses to actively support US foreign policy that promotes global peace. He suggested that businesses need to undertake iconic ventures that model a more equitable and peaceful world. The daylong forum brought leaders in business and international policy to explore the role business can play in creating a peaceful and sustainable world.
Economist Intelligence Unit interviews Hayes
Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute was interviewed for the May 12th, 2003 article in Business China on "North Korea, A Role for China."
Berkeley Youth Sail on Pegasus
On Tuesday, May 13, 2003, eleven sixth graders from Willard Middle School joined Pegasus crew for the final Shorebird Nature Center sail this season. Steady winds moved the vessel along at a swift clip and made for an exciting and slightly wet voyage. Many of the students hope to continue the Pegasus experience this summer through The Berkeley Boosters summer program.
Breaking News...
An essay by Ruediger Frank, Visiting Professor at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute of Columbia University, entitled "North Korea: 'Gigantic Change' and a Gigantic Chance," was published on May 9, 2003 as part of the Nautilus Institute's Policy Forum. Frank argues that the DPRK is on the brink of profound and meaningful economic reforms and the United States must tread carefully and respect this historic opportunity.
Simons Foundation Awards Nautilus $8,000 to support NAPSnet Daily Report
On Wednesday, May 7, 2003, the Simons Foundation of Vancouver, British
Columbia awarded the Nautilus Institute an $8,000 grant to support the
ongoing publication and distribution of the Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network (NAPSnet) Daily Report. With this grant, NAPSnet looks
forward to continuing to provide timely news and analysis on Northeast Asia security issues to its global readership.
Lessons Learned from 1994 US-DPRK Agreed Framework
The Nautilus Institute published a Special Report by director of the Strategic Research Department in the Center for Naval Warfare Studies of the Naval War College Jonathan D. Pollack. The report, entitled "The United States, North Korea, and the End of the Agreed Framework," provides historical context and analysis of the factors that led to the breakdown of the 1994 Agreed Framework. Pollack also asserts several policy lessons relevant for US policy today with North Korea. Read the full report: here.
Nautilus Argues for Renewable Energy Path in Japan
A synthesis report for the Nautilus Institute's Collaborative Pacific Asia Regional Energy Security (PARES) Project is now available. "A Framework for Energy Security Analysis and Application to a Case Study of Japan" outlines comprehensive methods for evaluating the energy security
implications of different energy "paths." In a Japan case study, an energy
path emphasizing energy efficiency and renewable energy yielded a fossil
fuel savings of 35 percent by 2020, which would result in a net savings of
over 25 trillion Yen. Read the full report: here.
Pegasus Sails with Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation
On Saturday May 3, 2003, six youth from the Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation sailed with six Pegasus volunteer crew under a steady breeze on calm waters. The youth passengers had the opportunity to view the magnificent San Francisco Bay from a perch above the water on the bow, and then to take the helm and steer a course by compass. The sail was the first in a Project Lifeskills series of three day sails and one overnight voyage.
Mansourov Foreshadows US-North Korea Impasse
On Thursday, April 23, 2003, the day talks in Beijing began between the United States and North Korea, the Nautilus Institute's DPRK Policy Forum published an essay entited "North Korea Is Poised To Cross The Nuclear Rubicon: Will The Canary Die In The Mine?" by Alexandre Y. Mansourov in which he argued that the tri-lateral talks were likely to end in an impasse that threaten further escalation of nuclear tensions on the Korean peninsula. To read the essay, click here.
Nautilus Fields Media Questions on North Korea
April 30, 2003:
May 1, 2003:
May 2, 2003:
Hayes and Tannenwald Explain De-Classified Vietnam War Nuclear First-Use Study
The May 2003 issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a feature article by Nautilus Institute Executive Director Peter Hayes and assistant research professor at Brown University Nina Tannenwald entitled "Nixing Nukes in Vietnam." Hayes and Tannenwald contextualize the 1966 study on nuclear first-use in Vietnam, and argue that its lessons remain relevant today. To read the full article, click here. To read the Nautilus Institute's report on "Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Southeast Asia," click here.
East Bay Youth Complete Spring Sailing Series
With two last sails aboard the Pegasus, the Berkeley Booster youth from Longfellow and Willard junior high school completed their spring sails. Increased confidence, and collective teamwork, along with a deeper appreciation for the bay environment, were just a few of the life skills gained during the sails. Many students will return for the Berkeley Boosters Pegasus Lifeskills series this summer.
Hayes Argues Regardless of Reprocessing DPRK Desire Negotiation
A Special Report by Peter Hayes entitled, "North Korea's Negotiating Tactics and Nuclear Strategy," was published on April
18, 2003. Hayes asserts that whether the reprocessing plant has been turned on or not
is simply a question of degree and therefore of tactics in the pending
negotiations. Consequently, Hayes argues that North Korea's reprocessing
threat is in fact a signal that the North is still willing to bargain with
the United States. To read the full report, click here.
Nautilus Fields Media Questions on North Korea
April 24, 2003:
April 24, 2003:
April 24, 2003:
April 25, 2003:
Brion Toss Donates Tuning Applications Workshop
Brion Toss, Master Rigger from Port Townsend Washington conducted a hands-on tuning principles and applications workshop for Pegasus volunteers on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2003. The group tuned Pegasus’ mizzen rigging which was just in time for a breezy afternoon youth sail with the Health Professions Partnership Initiative, a program operated by the UC Berkeley
School of Public Health.
Kotler, Wolff Argue for Multilateral Response to North Korea
In her essay entitled, Mindy Kotler, "Towards an 'Asian' North Korea," director and founder of the Japan Information Access Project in Washington, DC asserts that the Bush administration must re-evaluate its hardline, unilateral policy approach towards North Korea. David Wolff, Senior Scholar, Cold War International History Project at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, asserts in his essay "A Role for Russia in Korean Settlement" that US-Russia cooperation can play a significant role in settlement of the Korean Peninsula, as it will provide security assurances to Pyongyang from a source it trusts more than the US. Both essays are a part of the Nautilus Institute's on-going DPRK Policy Forum.
Hayes Informs PBS' Frontline on North Korea
Dr. Peter Hayes, the executive director of the Nautilus Institute, was consulted for the making of the Frontline report "Kim's Nuclear Gamble" which aired on April 11, 2003 on PBS. The long running news series detailed the recent tensions between the United States and North Korea over the DPRK's energy program and its attempts to develop nuclear weapons. The
website for the series includes wide-ranging and in-depth information on the conflict, as well as links to other web resources including the Nautilus Institute's own, "Next-Steps Workshop."
Pegasus sails with Berkeley Youth
On April 4, 2003, students from King Middle School in Berkeley joined volunteers Captain Paul Marbury, Jeanne Moje, Christine Albertsen, David Driesbach, and Pegasus Program Manager Lea Prince aboard Pegasus for a Berkeley Boosters after school voyage. Each student had the opportunity to sit on the bowsprit, take the helm, and assist the crew with knot tying and calling lookout.
Kotler, Wolff Argue for Multilateral Response to North Korea
In her essay entitled, Mindy Kotler, "Towards an 'Asian' North Korea," director and founder of the Japan Information Access Project in Washington, DC asserts that the Bush administration must re-evaluate its hardline, unilateral policy approach towards North Korea. David Wolff, Senior Scholar, Cold War International History Project at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, asserts in his essay "A Role for Russia in Korean Settlement" that US-Russia cooperation can play a significant role in settlement of the Korean Peninsula, as it will provide security assurances to Pyongyang from a source it trusts more than the US. Both essays are a part of the Nautilus Institute's on-going DPRK Policy Forum.
Hayes Informs PBS' Frontline on North Korea
Dr. Peter Hayes, the executive director of the Nautilus Institute, was consulted for the making of the Frontline report "Kim's Nuclear Gamble" which aired on April 11, 2003 on PBS. The long running news series detailed the recent tensions between the United States and North Korea over the DPRK's energy program and its attempts to develop nuclear weapons. The
website for the series includes wide-ranging and in-depth information on the conflict, as well as links to other web resources including the Nautilus Institute's own, "Next-Steps Workshop."
Pegasus sails with Berkeley Youth
On April 4, 2003, students from King Middle School in Berkeley joined volunteers Captain Paul Marbury, Jeanne Moje, Christine Albertsen, David Driesbach, and Pegasus Program Manager Lea Prince aboard Pegasus for a Berkeley Boosters after school voyage. Each student had the opportunity to sit on the bowsprit, take the helm, and assist the crew with knot tying and calling lookout.
Elliott Explains Role of Economic Sanctions and North Korea
In her essay, "The Role of Economic Leverage in Negotiations with North Korea," Research Fellow at the Institute for International Economics in
Washington, D.C. Kimberly Ann Elliott outlines the strategy and potential efficacy of economic sanctions on North Korea. Her paper is part of the Nautilus Institute's DPRK Policy Forum.
Nautilus Engages Dr. Baek Seung-Joo in Strategic ROK Discussion
Dr. Baek Seung-Joo, Director of the Chief of the North Korea Research Team
at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, visited the Nautilus Institute
on April 1, 2003. Also visiting the Nautilus Institute was Northeast Asia
Foreign Area officer of the U.S. Army Major Steve Park. Executive Director
Peter Hayes and Dr. Baek discussed the range of possible actions South Korea can take to help diffuse the current standoff between the US and
North Korea. Dr. Baek was briefed on the recently concluded Next Steps workshop in Washington and given an update on Nautilus' Renewable Energy project work in DPRK.
Ahmad Challenges US Policy on Kashmir
In a recent interview about the Kashmir conflict with an Al-jazeera reporter, Ahmad suggested that Pakistan's Kashmir policy lacks both courage
and creativity. He also argued that US is likely to pursue a policy of
managing rather then resolving the dispute.
Pegasus Sails with Sonoma County Students
On March 28, 2003, Pegasus sailed with fourth grade students from
Horicon School in Sonoma County. With winds from the north gusting up to 30
knots, rotating around the vessel proved challenging and rewarding for
the youth. Pegasus was crewed by volunteer Captain Mark Caplin, Paul Marbury, Jeanne Moje, Pat Scott, Tim McAnulty and Patty Donald of The
Shorebird Nature Center.
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