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Oct.-Dec. 2002 |
July-Sept. 2002 |
April-June 2002 | Jan-March 2002 |
Korea Foundation Supports Korea Scenarios
The Korea Foundation has granted $50,000 to support Nautilus Institute's work on Scenarios for the Future of the Korean Peninsula. Nautilus Director Peter Hayes said: "This grant will enable the Institute to build on its Scenarios for Future US-DPRK Relations completed in April 2003 which prefigured many of the current events. With Korea Foundation's support, we look forward to building similar scenarios in Korea in 2003."
Building Peace in an Era of Perpetual War
Peter Hayes spoke on January 13, 2002 to the Marin Peace and Justice Coalition on the prospects for war and peace. Peter outlined a global networking strategy for civil society to countervail viral networking strategies of governments and insurgents engaged in endless, escalating vortices of violence. He called for non-governmental organizations to use immunological strategies to swarm around and to solve many aspects of complex, interrelated problems at once in tangible, incremental steps. He cited the Institute's work with its partners in East and South Asia to resolve nuclear dilemmas as examples of this strategy. The Coalition made a contribution to the Institute's Pegasus Project in response to the talk.
New Paper Examines Investment Rules, Private Rights and Public Goods
A new paper, "The Environment and Non-Discrimination in
Investment Regimes: Domestic and International Institutions," by Konrad von Moltke, Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, examines the nexus between the universal principle of non-discrimination and its implementation in global regimes. Von Moltke argues that investment rules must be capable of balancing private rights and public goods in a manner that is legitimate, transparent and accountable. Since most international regimes cannot meet this standard, the paper suggests a framework agreement on investment, to be implemented in a range of international agreements.
The paper was produced for the International Sustainable and Ethical Investment Rules Project, a collaboration of the Nautilus Institute, IISD, Fundacion ECOS Uruguay, and the Singapore Institute for International Affairs. Earthscan will publish the final report of the Project in 2003.
Mass Media Cite Peter Hayes On North Korea
NORTH KOREA WON'T WAIT FOR US-- San Francisco Chronicle December 14, 2002 cited Peter Hayes: "It's wishful thinking that North Korea will let the United States deal first with Iraq. Why would North Korea give the United States the luxury of dealing with one rogue state at a time? North Korea is much more capable of hitting at vital U.S. interests."
US PAST FIRST USE AND PREEMPTIVE STRIKE POLICY SAME-- National Public Radio's Morning Edition, December 13, 2002.
ONLY WAY TO END MISSILE EXPORTS IS TO ENGAGE NORTH KOREA-- Voice of America, December 11. Asked about the arrest of a ship carrying North Korean missiles to Yemen, Peter said: "The North Koreans are exporting missiles as they have all along and there is nothing actually illegal. This kind of clandestine transfer of arms is going on all the time. They will continue to play this kind of rogue state role and there is no way other than engaging them to actually bring that to an end."
LITTLE LEVERAGE IN HEAVY FUEL OIL CUT-OFF-- Associated Press, December 11.
"The DPRK energy economy is one-tenth of what it used to be. If you reduce it by 5 to 10 percent, you may get a 1 percent effect. Even if an oil shipment initially set for next week had gone ahead as scheduled, most of the country's buildings would have remained without heat anyway."
Nautilus Argues HFO Cutoff Punishes Most Needy North Koreans
In an interview with the BBC, Nautilus Institute Executive Director Peter Hayes said that the Bush Administration's decision to cut off heavy fuel oil to North Korea will punish the "most vulnerable sectors" including those in hospitals and large orphanages. David Von Hippel, Nautilus Senior Associate, said that hundreds of thousands of people may have to survive with less electricity this winter. This will also compound the suffering of a people already wracked by hunger. Hayes added, it does not radically increase the US' political leverage over "a leadership (that) has (already) survived a significant fraction of the population dying from cold and malnutrition".
East Asia Energy Futures Project Interim Progress Report Now Available
The East Asia Energy Futures project, coordinated by the Nautilus Institute, is an ongoing cooperative research venture with partners from
the countries of Northeast Asia, including China, the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation (the Russian Far East), and Taiwan. The overall goal of the East Asia Energy Futures project is to identify policy options to increase regional energy security and to engage the DPRK through the analysis of demand-driven energy paths. These energy paths are used to identify key national, regional, or global policies that contribute toward enhancing energy security-considered in the broad sense-in the Northeast Asia region. The "Summary Report of the East Asia Energy Futures Project: Activities and Accomplishments 2001 to 2002," provides a discussion of the goals, background, and organization of the Project, and a summary of recent project activities and achievements.
New Report Examines Implications for Global Investment Rules of Growing Environmental Concern in Asia
A new report, Sustainable Development: The Emerging Paradigm in Asia, by Simon Tay and Iris Tan of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs explores the nexus between foreign direct investment and environmental regulation in Southeast Asia. The report suggests that a new popular environmental consciousness could generate support for investment rules based on fostering sustainability, provided that the modality was one of cooperation rather than coercion by the West. The report was produced for the International Sustainable and Ethical Investment Rules Project, a
collaboration of theNautilus Institute, IISD, ECOS Fundacion, and the Singapore Institute for International Affairs.
Pegasus sails with local youth and volunteer crew
During a two-hour after school sail on December 6, eight local youth from
Rosa Parks Elementary continued to learn about sailing on the San Francisco
Bay. The sail was coordinated through the Berkeley Boosters and was crewed by six
Pegasus Project volunteers. With the rainy weather leaving everyone feeling a little damp, the voyage was a memorable experience. On December 7, Pegasus crew had the opportunity to participate in a crew orientation under the guidance of training captain Bill Proctor. The orientation focused on engine systems and safely docking and undocking the vessel.
New Nautilus Report Reveals Public Welfare Inadequacy of Bilateral
Investment Treaties
Nautilus has published a new report by Luke Peterson, Research
Associate at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, entitled, "All Roads Lead Out of Rome: Divergent Paths of Dispute
Settlement in Bilateral Investment Treaties," which examines public policy
implications of bilateral investment treaties. The report was produced for the
International Sustainable and Ethical Invesmtent Rules
Project directed by Nautilus Senior Associate, Lyuba Zarsky.
Hayes Says US Will Not Push Pakistan to Wall on Radio Australia
In an interview with Radio Australia's Asia Pacific program Nautilus Director Peter Hayes outlined the cautious response of the United States to reports of Pakistani supply of uranium enrichment technology to North Korea. He suggested that there was little the United States could do to
hold Pakistan accountable due to its importance in US strategy against terrorism in the region.
Ahmad Argues for Peace Process in Kashmir on KALW Radio
In a radio interview with Upfront, a news and analysis program of KALW San
Francisco, Zulfiqar Ahmad explored the links between India-Pakistan tensions, US foreign policy, and the rise of religious extremism in South
Asia. He also argued that any peace process that stands a chance of success in resolving the Kashmir dispute must satisfy the aspirations of the Kashmiri people.
Report on DPRK Nuclear Weapons is Bunk, Hayes Tells New York Times
In a New York Times article on November 18 about media reports that North Korea had declared that it has
nuclear weapons, Nautilus Director Peter Hayes said: "It was either a broadcaster's mistake in North Korea, a mistake in transcription or
translation, or a distortion by Yonhap, which is pretty well known for
propagating rumors, especially by hard-line elements in South Korea." Hayes
added that, "in the same breath, the announcer was saying they want to
continue to negotiate nuclear agreements."
Nautilus Publishes New Essays on Global Security
The Nautilus Institute's on-line forum on Security Without Borders
has published three new essays by Patrick Morgan from Irvine University, Zia Mian/Pervez Hoodbhoy from Princeton University, and David Albright from the Institute for Science and International Security. Morgan's and Mian/Hoodbhoy's
essays examine the use and limits of deterrence that has been an important
element in global security arrangements. Albright's essay examines what the war in Afghanistan revealed about al-Qaeda's efforts to
acquire nuclear weapons. The three essays are part of the forum's goal of
helping to define the contours of security in an increasingly globalized
world.
Pegasus Sails With Twelve From Boosters
Hayes Argues Against North Korea Heavy Fuel Oil Suspensions
Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, argues that the KEDO decision to suspend heavy fuel oil shipments to the DPRK was imprudent. In his essay, "
Tactically Smart, Strategically Stupid: The KEDO Decision to Suspend Heavy Fuel Oil Shipments to the DPRK," he suggests that the United States has lit a very short fuse to nuclear proliferation in North Korea. He argues that the DPRK should declare a unilateral freeze on its uranium enrichment activity and invite the international community to inspect this freeze pending the resumption of US-DPRK dialogue to resolve the enrichment imbroglio. This essay is part of the Nautilus Institute's rolling Policy Forum Online on North Korea.
Yu Acts as Information Synapse during North Korea Crisis
The Oakland Tribune recently published a front page feature article highlighting Nautilus Institute Northeast Asia Program Officer Brandon Yu's work on the Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network (NAPSnet) and the North Korea Special Forum. Yu writes, edits, and electronically publishes a daily and weekly digest on Northeast Asia nuclear, security, and diplomatic issues. Yu's reports reach upwards to 10,000 experts, diplomats, aid workers, and scholars across the globe.
Nautilus Initiates Essays on Security without Borders
The Nautilus Institute has initiated a set of essays exploring whether we now stand at a transformative moment in which the core ideas, institutions, and processes designed to create, sustain and enhance a state-based system of global security are not only inadequate, but actually invalid. Our hope is that through active participation of our readers, the forum will help map the current and emerging global security concerns and threat and suggest what role a global network of civil society organizations can play in defining the contours of a new, truly borderless security environment. The first essay, entitled "Deterrence and the Contemporary Situation in the Middle East," is by Patrick Morgan, professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine.
Shanghai Institute visits Nautilus to Exchange Views
Nautilus Publishes Diverse Views on US-Korea Crisis
The Nautilus Institute Policy Forum Online has published four additional essays on the crisis over North Korea's uranium enrichment activities. This
includes the essay Current Developments on the Korean Peninsula: Are There Grounds for Hope? by President of Korea University and former ROK Foreign Minister (1993-94) Hang Sung-Joo, and the essay North Korea Back to the Future by Glyn Ford, a member of the European Parliament representing South West England. The Forum has published a total of 16 essays by experts since the current crisis erupted
on October 16.
For all essays, go to Policy Forum Online
Media Carries Nautilus Assessments on North Korean Crisis
Both US and Korean papers printed Nautilus Institute assessments of the
US-Korea crisis. The Los Angeles Times interviewed Executive Director Peter Hayes about the on-going construction of two light water reactors and other activities of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in North Korea despite the current controversy over the country's uranium enrichment activities. The South Korean paper Dong-A Ilbo reprinted an essay by Timothy Savage, Nautilus Associate and Visiting Fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University, Seoul.
Nautilus Associate Lyuba Zarsky Helps Draft Recommendations to FTAA Trade
Ministers
Nautilus Senior Associate Lyuba Zarsky helped draft
recommendations on regional investment rules in a non-governmental organization (NGO) forum in Quito, Ecuador on "Sustainability in the
Americas." The forum was Organized by the Ecuadorean Center on Environmental Law and Futuro Latinoamericano and held in conjunction with a meeting of trade ministers from Western hemispheric countries working to negotiate the Free Trade of the Americas Agreement (FTAA). Representatives from some 70 NGOs, the bulk of them from Latin America, drafted and presented recommendations to the trade ministers on investment, civil society participation, intellectual property, and market access.
Pegasus November Schedule Kicked Off by Boosters Sail and Crew Training
Ploughshares Grant Helps Institute Respond to Changing Trends in Global
Insecurity
The Ploughshares Fund has awarded the Nautilus Institute $50,000 to respond to global peace and security issues focusing on the Korean Peninsula and in South Asia. The grant will help Nautilus continue work to increase transparency in nuclear policy and provide timely and accurate information to policy makers.
Hayes Says "Everything Hangs in the Balance" on North Korea
Hayes said he questioned whether US President George Bush can accept yes
for an answer from North Korea as to whether it is willing to give up its
nuclear weapons potential. Likewise, Hayes explained, it is unknown whether
DPRK President Kim Jong Il can accept no for an answer to the question
whether the international community is willing to accept a nuclear-armed
North Korea.
"The answer to these two questions defines the difference between war and
peace. Everything hangs in the balance," Hayes concluded.
See Policy Forum Online for additional information about the North Korean
crisis.
Pegasus Sails with Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation Kids
Nautilus Responds to DPRK Nuclear Crisis
The revelation on October 16, 2002, that North Korea is attempting to enrich uranium -- one of the fissile materials that can be used to make nuclear weapons -- resulted in massive media attention. Within hours, the Nautilus Institute published Executive Director Peter Hayes' essay "The Agreed Framework is Dead: Long Live the Agreed Framework!" The essay was reprinted by Asia Times (Taipei) and the South China Morning Herald.
In numerous interviews over the following days, Hayes emphasized that the DPRK enrichment activity cannot be construed as innocent, and that DPRK President Kim Jong Il must now decide whether he wants nuclear weapons more than a revived economy. Hayes concluded that the enrichment and plutonium issues in the DPRK are now joined and must be solved simultaneously in an IAEA framework. Hayes further emphasized that the United States also must choose between confrontation and running the risk of war versus negotiating a comprehensive solution after extensive dialogue.
On October 19, Hayes was cited in the Washington Post as saying: "The North Koreans had their hand in the till, and the U.S. slammed the drawer. The Americans did not expect the North Koreans to look at them and say, 'yeah, so what else is new?' Neither of them have a game plan."
The same day, he was cited in the San Francisco Chronicle as saying: "Short of war, it would be imprudent to shut down a channel of communication with this regime. It would be easy, it would feel satisfying, and there are lots more fun things in life than dealing with North Korea. But the stakes are too high, because it's too dangerous an adversary. We have no other option but to cooperate."
On October 21, he said on National Public Radio's All Things Considered that, "The only time when American heavy fuel oil is really valuable to North Korea is mid-winter. We are about to descend into the depths of dark and cold in North Korea. So the United States has some leverage -- but not a lot. The United States can pull the plug but nothing much will happen in North Korea because China stands behind North Korea with basic oil and food supply."
"This is the historic moment for Bush to actually make his mark on this relationship and build a new security architecture," he added, "Not just for the Korean Peninsula but for the whole region"
Links to media interviews with Peter Hayes October 16: National Public Radio's All Things Considered. October 17: George Lewinski KQED Radio's Pacific Time radio. Canadian CBC radio stations in NW Ontario Ottawa, Regina, Montreal, Sudbury, and Winnipeg. October 18: Sisa Journal (Seoul), Voice of America radio and on the NPR program To The Point, KCRW radio Los Angeles. October 19: Washington Post. October 21: National Public Radio's All Things Considered. October 22: Radio Australia's Asia-Pacific service, Bunshun (Tokyo), and Greenwire (Greenwire)
See Also: North Korea Special Reports and On-Line Forum Essays:
-Andrew Mack, North Korea's Latest Nuclear Gambit
The Agreed Framework is Dead: Long Live the Agreed Framework!
This essay, by Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, analyzes breaking news that the United States holds the DPRK to be in "material breach" of its promise to not develop nuclear weapons. It reviews what the DPRK might be doing with uranium enrichment and concludes that there is no innocent explanation. It speculates that the DPRK might have aimed to force the United States to resume dialogue. Alternately, it might have been developing a clandestine nuclear weapons capacity for long run strategic value in the face of its degraded conventional military forces. Finally, the essay states that the Agreed Framework has been dead for some time, but that short of war, it is inevitable that eventually the DPRK and the United States create a new cooperative framework.
Ahmad Argues Against US Attack on Iraq
Zulfiqar Ahmad's op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle analyzes the
unprecedented success of religious parties in Pakistan's recently concluded
elections. Ahmad argues that election results indicate growing
anti-American sentiments in Pakistan. Consequently, a US attack on Iraq,
can potentially have dire consequences for Pakistan, including the
dissolution of the elected legislatures and further political strengthening
of Pakistan's various religious parties and fundamentalist groups.
Read "Religion and Political Identity Gathering storm in Pakistan" here
Boosters counselors set sail aboard Pegasus
The Agreed Framework is Dead: Long Live the Agreed Framework!
This essay, by Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, analyzes breaking news that the United States holds the DPRK to be in "material breach" of its promise to not develop nuclear weapons. It reviews what the DPRK might be doing with uranium enrichment and concludes that there is no innocent explanation. It speculates that the DPRK might have aimed to force the United States to resume dialogue. Alternately, it might have been developing a clandestine nuclear weapons capacity for long run strategic value in the face of its degraded conventional military forces. Finally, the essay states that the Agreed Framework has been dead for some time, but that short of war, it is inevitable that eventually the DPRK and the United States create a new cooperative framework.
Hayes suggests "Niche Networks" key to successful DPRK Transition
Speaking at the workshop on Information Technology Revolution and National
Security in the Korean Peninsula held at the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies on October 8, 2002, Nautilus Executive Director Peter Hayes suggested that networks should be supported in niche transitional strategies in the DPRK, including minerals, information-intensive
industries, and cottage industries. He presented two case studies on
integrated circuit manufacturing and software production in the DPRK that
demonstrate the difficulties in introducing advanced technologies to a
collapsed command-and-control economy. He stated that "the current shift
to proto-markets and technocratic planning in the DPRK runs the risk that
old bad habits will reassert themselves. Information, training, and
networked knowledge support systems can help the DPRK leadership to avoid
these pitfalls."
Caplin Awarded Berkeley Boosters Volunteer of the Year
Pegasus Project's Captain Mark Caplin was honored as Male Volunteer of the Year at the Berkeley Boosters Association/Police Activities League annual fundraising dinner on October 10. Mark started with the Pegasus Project 8 years ago as one of the original crew members after finishing a sailing
course at Olympic Circle Sailing Club. He eventually worked his way up to the Mate position and then to Captain. As a Pegasus Captain, Mark is
responsible for the safety of the youth at the dock and under sail as well
as crew coordination, navigation, and decision-making.
New Study of Foreign Waste Dumping in China
The case study can be found here.
Nautilus Publishes DPRK Energy Balance Report
Nautilus Associates David Von Hippel and
Timothy Savage along with
Executive Director Peter Hayes co-authored a report entitled "The DPRK Energy Sector: Estimated Year 2000 Energy Balance and Suggested Approaches
to Sectoral Redevelopment" that analyzed the demand for and supply of
electricity in the DPRK. Building on previous energy balance work prepared
for 1990 and 1996, the authors assembled information from as many data
sources as possible to try and update their earlier work to an estimate of
year 2000 energy supply and demand in the DPRK. The report also briefly
sketches a "Rebuilding" pathway for the DPRK economy and energy sector, and
describe some of the preconditions and impacts on the energy sector of such
a path.
Read the full report here.
Five Bridges Foundation awards $7500 to Pegasus Project
The Nautilus Institute is please to announce the receipt of a $7500
grant awarded by Five Bridges Foundation to assist in the support of The
Pegasus Project. Five Bridges Foundation's mission is to promote and improve the quality of life for the residents of San Francisco Bay
Area through the funding of organizations having programs directed
toward the achievement of long term, positive change. The grant will be
used towards Project Lifeskills, a sailing program for low-income and
minority Bay Area youth. With our project partner The Berkeley Boosters, Project Lifeskills provides youth with an unprecedented opportunity to experience the San Francisco Bay while learning basic life skills such
as confidence, teamwork and an appreciation of our natural environment.
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July-Sept. 2002 |
Jan-March 2002 | April-June 2002 | July-Sept. 2002 |
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With Mark Caplin as captain and Paul Marbury at the helm, 
