Nautilus Institute Update Archive
updated friday, january 10, 2003

| Oct.-Dec. 2002 | July-Sept. 2002 | April-June 2002 | Jan-March 2002 |
| Oct.-Dec. 2001 | July-Sept. 2001 | April-June 2001 | Jan.-March 2001 |
| July-Dec. 2000 | Jan.-June 2000 |
| 1999 |

December 20, 2002

    Korea Foundation Supports Korea Scenarios
    Posted December 20, 2002

    The Korea Foundation has granted $50,000 to support Nautilus Institute's work on Scenarios for the Future of the Korean Peninsula. Nautilus Director Peter Hayes said: "This grant will enable the Institute to build on its Scenarios for Future US-DPRK Relations completed in April 2003 which prefigured many of the current events. With Korea Foundation's support, we look forward to building similar scenarios in Korea in 2003."

    Building Peace in an Era of Perpetual War
    Posted December 20, 2002

    Peter Hayes spoke on January 13, 2002 to the Marin Peace and Justice Coalition on the prospects for war and peace. Peter outlined a global networking strategy for civil society to countervail viral networking strategies of governments and insurgents engaged in endless, escalating vortices of violence. He called for non-governmental organizations to use immunological strategies to swarm around and to solve many aspects of complex, interrelated problems at once in tangible, incremental steps. He cited the Institute's work with its partners in East and South Asia to resolve nuclear dilemmas as examples of this strategy. The Coalition made a contribution to the Institute's Pegasus Project in response to the talk.

    New Paper Examines Investment Rules, Private Rights and Public Goods
    Posted December 20, 2002

    A new paper, "The Environment and Non-Discrimination in Investment Regimes: Domestic and International Institutions," by Konrad von Moltke, Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, examines the nexus between the universal principle of non-discrimination and its implementation in global regimes. Von Moltke argues that investment rules must be capable of balancing private rights and public goods in a manner that is legitimate, transparent and accountable. Since most international regimes cannot meet this standard, the paper suggests a framework agreement on investment, to be implemented in a range of international agreements.

    The paper was produced for the International Sustainable and Ethical Investment Rules Project, a collaboration of the Nautilus Institute, IISD, Fundacion ECOS Uruguay, and the Singapore Institute for International Affairs. Earthscan will publish the final report of the Project in 2003.

    Mass Media Cite Peter Hayes On North Korea
    Posted December 20, 2002

    NORTH KOREA WON'T WAIT FOR US-- San Francisco Chronicle December 14, 2002 cited Peter Hayes: "It's wishful thinking that North Korea will let the United States deal first with Iraq. Why would North Korea give the United States the luxury of dealing with one rogue state at a time? North Korea is much more capable of hitting at vital U.S. interests."

    US PAST FIRST USE AND PREEMPTIVE STRIKE POLICY SAME-- National Public Radio's Morning Edition, December 13, 2002.
    The newly announced US pre-emptive nuclear strategy "is actually directly continuous with past American declaratory policy," said Peter Hayes, "which is that the United States reserves the right of first use of nuclear weapons in whatever contingencies it judges it needs to use them."

    ONLY WAY TO END MISSILE EXPORTS IS TO ENGAGE NORTH KOREA-- Voice of America, December 11. Asked about the arrest of a ship carrying North Korean missiles to Yemen, Peter said: "The North Koreans are exporting missiles as they have all along and there is nothing actually illegal. This kind of clandestine transfer of arms is going on all the time. They will continue to play this kind of rogue state role and there is no way other than engaging them to actually bring that to an end."

    LITTLE LEVERAGE IN HEAVY FUEL OIL CUT-OFF-- Associated Press, December 11. "The DPRK energy economy is one-tenth of what it used to be. If you reduce it by 5 to 10 percent, you may get a 1 percent effect. Even if an oil shipment initially set for next week had gone ahead as scheduled, most of the country's buildings would have remained without heat anyway."

December 13, 2002

    Nautilus Argues HFO Cutoff Punishes Most Needy North Koreans
    Posted December 13, 2002

    In an interview with the BBC, Nautilus Institute Executive Director Peter Hayes said that the Bush Administration's decision to cut off heavy fuel oil to North Korea will punish the "most vulnerable sectors" including those in hospitals and large orphanages. David Von Hippel, Nautilus Senior Associate, said that hundreds of thousands of people may have to survive with less electricity this winter. This will also compound the suffering of a people already wracked by hunger. Hayes added, it does not radically increase the US' political leverage over "a leadership (that) has (already) survived a significant fraction of the population dying from cold and malnutrition".

    East Asia Energy Futures Project Interim Progress Report Now Available
    Posted December 13, 2002

    The East Asia Energy Futures project, coordinated by the Nautilus Institute, is an ongoing cooperative research venture with partners from the countries of Northeast Asia, including China, the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation (the Russian Far East), and Taiwan. The overall goal of the East Asia Energy Futures project is to identify policy options to increase regional energy security and to engage the DPRK through the analysis of demand-driven energy paths. These energy paths are used to identify key national, regional, or global policies that contribute toward enhancing energy security-considered in the broad sense-in the Northeast Asia region. The "Summary Report of the East Asia Energy Futures Project: Activities and Accomplishments 2001 to 2002," provides a discussion of the goals, background, and organization of the Project, and a summary of recent project activities and achievements.

    New Report Examines Implications for Global Investment Rules of Growing Environmental Concern in Asia
    Posted December 13, 2002

    A new report, Sustainable Development: The Emerging Paradigm in Asia, by Simon Tay and Iris Tan of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs explores the nexus between foreign direct investment and environmental regulation in Southeast Asia. The report suggests that a new popular environmental consciousness could generate support for investment rules based on fostering sustainability, provided that the modality was one of cooperation rather than coercion by the West. The report was produced for the International Sustainable and Ethical Investment Rules Project, a collaboration of theNautilus Institute, IISD, ECOS Fundacion, and the Singapore Institute for International Affairs.

    Pegasus sails with local youth and volunteer crew
    Posted December 13, 2002

    During a two-hour after school sail on December 6, eight local youth from Rosa Parks Elementary continued to learn about sailing on the San Francisco Bay. The sail was coordinated through the Berkeley Boosters and was crewed by six Pegasus Project volunteers. With the rainy weather leaving everyone feeling a little damp, the voyage was a memorable experience. On December 7, Pegasus crew had the opportunity to participate in a crew orientation under the guidance of training captain Bill Proctor. The orientation focused on engine systems and safely docking and undocking the vessel.

December 6, 2002

November 22, 2002

    Report on DPRK Nuclear Weapons is Bunk, Hayes Tells New York Times
    Posted November 22, 2002

    In a New York Times article on November 18 about media reports that North Korea had declared that it has nuclear weapons, Nautilus Director Peter Hayes said: "It was either a broadcaster's mistake in North Korea, a mistake in transcription or translation, or a distortion by Yonhap, which is pretty well known for propagating rumors, especially by hard-line elements in South Korea." Hayes added that, "in the same breath, the announcer was saying they want to continue to negotiate nuclear agreements."

    Nautilus Publishes New Essays on Global Security
    Posted November 22, 2002

    The Nautilus Institute's on-line forum on Security Without Borders has published three new essays by Patrick Morgan from Irvine University, Zia Mian/Pervez Hoodbhoy from Princeton University, and David Albright from the Institute for Science and International Security. Morgan's and Mian/Hoodbhoy's essays examine the use and limits of deterrence that has been an important element in global security arrangements. Albright's essay examines what the war in Afghanistan revealed about al-Qaeda's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. The three essays are part of the forum's goal of helping to define the contours of security in an increasingly globalized world.

    Special Policy Forum

    Pegasus Sails With Twelve From Boosters
    Posted November 22, 2002

     With Mark Caplin as captain and Paul Marbury at the helm, Pegasus sailed with twelve Berkeley Boosters on November 15. This was one of a series of after school sails aboard Pegasus that provides local at-risk youth a chance to experience their backyard bay in a new way.

November 15, 2002

    Hayes Argues Against North Korea Heavy Fuel Oil Suspensions
    Posted November 15, 2002

    Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, argues that the KEDO decision to suspend heavy fuel oil shipments to the DPRK was imprudent. In his essay, " Tactically Smart, Strategically Stupid: The KEDO Decision to Suspend Heavy Fuel Oil Shipments to the DPRK," he suggests that the United States has lit a very short fuse to nuclear proliferation in North Korea. He argues that the DPRK should declare a unilateral freeze on its uranium enrichment activity and invite the international community to inspect this freeze pending the resumption of US-DPRK dialogue to resolve the enrichment imbroglio. This essay is part of the Nautilus Institute's rolling Policy Forum Online on North Korea.

    Yu Acts as Information Synapse during North Korea Crisis
    Posted November 15, 2002

    The Oakland Tribune recently published a front page feature article highlighting Nautilus Institute Northeast Asia Program Officer Brandon Yu's work on the Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network (NAPSnet) and the North Korea Special Forum. Yu writes, edits, and electronically publishes a daily and weekly digest on Northeast Asia nuclear, security, and diplomatic issues. Yu's reports reach upwards to 10,000 experts, diplomats, aid workers, and scholars across the globe.

    Nautilus Initiates Essays on Security without Borders
    Posted November 15, 2002

    The Nautilus Institute has initiated a set of essays exploring whether we now stand at a transformative moment in which the core ideas, institutions, and processes designed to create, sustain and enhance a state-based system of global security are not only inadequate, but actually invalid. Our hope is that through active participation of our readers, the forum will help map the current and emerging global security concerns and threat and suggest what role a global network of civil society organizations can play in defining the contours of a new, truly borderless security environment. The first essay, entitled "Deterrence and the Contemporary Situation in the Middle East," is by Patrick Morgan, professor of Political Science at the University of California, Irvine.

    Shanghai Institute visits Nautilus to Exchange Views
    Posted November 15, 2002

     A team of foreign policy experts from the Shanghai Institute for International Studies visited the Institute on Wednesday, October 30 for a mutual briefing on world affairs. The SIIS team outlined their views on Iraq and North Korea while Nautilus Executive Director Peter Hayes analyzed the current state of US-DPRK relations. They also discussed the practical aspects of conducting research on international affairs. The SIIS delegation included Yang Jiemian, Pan Zhongqi, Chen Hongbin, Xue Chen, and Shao Liqin.

November 8, 2002

    Nautilus Publishes Diverse Views on US-Korea Crisis
    Posted November 8, 2002

    The Nautilus Institute Policy Forum Online has published four additional essays on the crisis over North Korea's uranium enrichment activities. This includes the essay Current Developments on the Korean Peninsula: Are There Grounds for Hope? by President of Korea University and former ROK Foreign Minister (1993-94) Hang Sung-Joo, and the essay North Korea Back to the Future by Glyn Ford, a member of the European Parliament representing South West England. The Forum has published a total of 16 essays by experts since the current crisis erupted on October 16.

    For all essays, go to Policy Forum Online

    Media Carries Nautilus Assessments on North Korean Crisis
    Posted November 8, 2002

    Both US and Korean papers printed Nautilus Institute assessments of the US-Korea crisis. The Los Angeles Times interviewed Executive Director Peter Hayes about the on-going construction of two light water reactors and other activities of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in North Korea despite the current controversy over the country's uranium enrichment activities. The South Korean paper Dong-A Ilbo reprinted an essay by Timothy Savage, Nautilus Associate and Visiting Fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University, Seoul.

    Nautilus Associate Lyuba Zarsky Helps Draft Recommendations to FTAA Trade Ministers
    Posted November 8, 2002

    Nautilus Senior Associate Lyuba Zarsky helped draft recommendations on regional investment rules in a non-governmental organization (NGO) forum in Quito, Ecuador on "Sustainability in the Americas." The forum was Organized by the Ecuadorean Center on Environmental Law and Futuro Latinoamericano and held in conjunction with a meeting of trade ministers from Western hemispheric countries working to negotiate the Free Trade of the Americas Agreement (FTAA). Representatives from some 70 NGOs, the bulk of them from Latin America, drafted and presented recommendations to the trade ministers on investment, civil society participation, intellectual property, and market access.

    See also: Free Trade Area of the Americas Takes Shape

    Pegasus November Schedule Kicked Off by Boosters Sail and Crew Training
    Posted November 8, 2002

     Nine Berkeley Boosters, many of whom had never sailed in the bay before, joined captain Peter Hayes and four volunteer crew for an exhilarating sunset sail on November 1. The sail set the tone for the remainder of the fall semester sails and was followed by a crew training on November 2nd. Ten of Pegasus' volunteers had the opportunity to improve their knowledge of sailing safely with children by participating in Person Overboard drills with a life-size human mannequin during this training. New and more effective techniques for passenger recovery were explored under the leadership of training captain Bill Proctor.

November 1, 2002

    Ploughshares Grant Helps Institute Respond to Changing Trends in Global Insecurity
    Posted November 4, 2002

    The Ploughshares Fund has awarded the Nautilus Institute $50,000 to respond to global peace and security issues focusing on the Korean Peninsula and in South Asia. The grant will help Nautilus continue work to increase transparency in nuclear policy and provide timely and accurate information to policy makers.

    Hayes Says "Everything Hangs in the Balance" on North Korea
    Posted November 1, 2002

     The Bush Administration has not developed a coherent policy to engage and disarm North Korea's nuclear program, Nautilus Institute Executive Director Peter Hayes stated in an interview with KPFA Radio on October 29.

    Hayes said he questioned whether US President George Bush can accept yes for an answer from North Korea as to whether it is willing to give up its nuclear weapons potential. Likewise, Hayes explained, it is unknown whether DPRK President Kim Jong Il can accept no for an answer to the question whether the international community is willing to accept a nuclear-armed North Korea.

    "The answer to these two questions defines the difference between war and peace. Everything hangs in the balance," Hayes concluded.

    See Policy Forum Online for additional information about the North Korean crisis.

    Pegasus Sails with Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation Kids
    Posted November 1, 2002

     Pegasus set sail on Saturday, October 26 with twelve passengers from the Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation, most of whom had never sailed on the bay before. During a 3 and 1/2 hour sail, the group experienced the bay at it's finest and had the opportunity to participate with the crew in tasks such as raising and lowering the sails and steering the vessel. Pegasus was captained by Bill Proctor and sailed by five dedicated volunteer crew.

October 25, 2002

October 18, 2002

    The Agreed Framework is Dead: Long Live the Agreed Framework!
    Posted October 16, 2002

    This essay, by Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, analyzes breaking news that the United States holds the DPRK to be in "material breach" of its promise to not develop nuclear weapons. It reviews what the DPRK might be doing with uranium enrichment and concludes that there is no innocent explanation. It speculates that the DPRK might have aimed to force the United States to resume dialogue. Alternately, it might have been developing a clandestine nuclear weapons capacity for long run strategic value in the face of its degraded conventional military forces. Finally, the essay states that the Agreed Framework has been dead for some time, but that short of war, it is inevitable that eventually the DPRK and the United States create a new cooperative framework.

    Ahmad Argues Against US Attack on Iraq
    Posted October 18, 2002

    Zulfiqar Ahmad's op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle analyzes the unprecedented success of religious parties in Pakistan's recently concluded elections. Ahmad argues that election results indicate growing anti-American sentiments in Pakistan. Consequently, a US attack on Iraq, can potentially have dire consequences for Pakistan, including the dissolution of the elected legislatures and further political strengthening of Pakistan's various religious parties and fundamentalist groups.

    Read "Religion and Political Identity Gathering storm in Pakistan" here

    Boosters counselors set sail aboard Pegasus
    Posted October 18, 2002

     On Friday, October 11, a group of Pegasus Project volunteer crew introduced six newly hired Berkeley Boosters counselors to our sailing program during a two hour sail aboard the Pegasus. All of the new counselors are working for the Boosters as AmeriCorps members and will be placed in one of the four east bay schools that have partnered with the Boosters for the 2002-2003 school year. These counselors will work in conjunction with the Nautilus Institute and The Berkeley Yacht Club to provide local 5th-8th grade at-risk youth the opportunity to learn new life-skills and an appreciation of the natural environment through sailing on the San Francisco Bay.

October 11, 2002

    The Agreed Framework is Dead: Long Live the Agreed Framework!
    Posted October 16, 2002

    This essay, by Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, analyzes breaking news that the United States holds the DPRK to be in "material breach" of its promise to not develop nuclear weapons. It reviews what the DPRK might be doing with uranium enrichment and concludes that there is no innocent explanation. It speculates that the DPRK might have aimed to force the United States to resume dialogue. Alternately, it might have been developing a clandestine nuclear weapons capacity for long run strategic value in the face of its degraded conventional military forces. Finally, the essay states that the Agreed Framework has been dead for some time, but that short of war, it is inevitable that eventually the DPRK and the United States create a new cooperative framework.

    Hayes suggests "Niche Networks" key to successful DPRK Transition
    Posted October 11, 2002

    Speaking at the workshop on Information Technology Revolution and National Security in the Korean Peninsula held at the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies on October 8, 2002, Nautilus Executive Director Peter Hayes suggested that networks should be supported in niche transitional strategies in the DPRK, including minerals, information-intensive industries, and cottage industries. He presented two case studies on integrated circuit manufacturing and software production in the DPRK that demonstrate the difficulties in introducing advanced technologies to a collapsed command-and-control economy. He stated that "the current shift to proto-markets and technocratic planning in the DPRK runs the risk that old bad habits will reassert themselves. Information, training, and networked knowledge support systems can help the DPRK leadership to avoid these pitfalls."

    Caplin Awarded Berkeley Boosters Volunteer of the Year
    Posted October 10, 2002

    Pegasus Project's Captain Mark Caplin was honored as Male Volunteer of the Year at the Berkeley Boosters Association/Police Activities League annual fundraising dinner on October 10. Mark started with the Pegasus Project 8 years ago as one of the original crew members after finishing a sailing course at Olympic Circle Sailing Club. He eventually worked his way up to the Mate position and then to Captain. As a Pegasus Captain, Mark is responsible for the safety of the youth at the dock and under sail as well as crew coordination, navigation, and decision-making.

October 4, 2002

    New Study of Foreign Waste Dumping in China
    Posted October 4, 2002

     The Nautilus Institute has released a new report, Environment, Development, and Human Rights: A Case Study of Foreign Waste, by Changhu Wu and Simon Wang. The report chronicles the emergence of foreign waste dumping in China in the 1990s both as an environmental problem and an opportunity for Beijing to clarify its view of environmental human rights as soveriegnty over national resources. The report is included in the newly published Human Rights and the Environment: Conflicts and Norms in a Globalizing World, edited by Nautilus Senior Associate Lyuba Zarsky. To order a copy of the book, please contact Earthscan Press.

    The case study can be found here.

    Nautilus Publishes DPRK Energy Balance Report
    Posted October 4, 2002

    Nautilus Associates David Von Hippel and Timothy Savage along with Executive Director Peter Hayes co-authored a report entitled "The DPRK Energy Sector: Estimated Year 2000 Energy Balance and Suggested Approaches to Sectoral Redevelopment" that analyzed the demand for and supply of electricity in the DPRK. Building on previous energy balance work prepared for 1990 and 1996, the authors assembled information from as many data sources as possible to try and update their earlier work to an estimate of year 2000 energy supply and demand in the DPRK. The report also briefly sketches a "Rebuilding" pathway for the DPRK economy and energy sector, and describe some of the preconditions and impacts on the energy sector of such a path.

    Read the full report here.

    Five Bridges Foundation awards $7500 to Pegasus Project
    Posted September 27, 2002

    The Nautilus Institute is please to announce the receipt of a $7500 grant awarded by Five Bridges Foundation to assist in the support of The Pegasus Project. Five Bridges Foundation's mission is to promote and improve the quality of life for the residents of San Francisco Bay Area through the funding of organizations having programs directed toward the achievement of long term, positive change. The grant will be used towards Project Lifeskills, a sailing program for low-income and minority Bay Area youth. With our project partner The Berkeley Boosters, Project Lifeskills provides youth with an unprecedented opportunity to experience the San Francisco Bay while learning basic life skills such as confidence, teamwork and an appreciation of our natural environment.

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| Oct.-Dec. 2002 | July-Sept. 2002 | Jan-March 2002 | April-June 2002 | July-Sept. 2002 |
Oct.-Dec.. 2001 | July-Sept. 2001 | April-June 2001 | Jan.-March 2001 |
| July-Dec. 2000 | Jan.-June 2000 |
| 1999 |

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