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September 26, 2003

Nautilus Departs for 3rd Grid Workshop in Vladivostok

The Nautilus Institute will be holding its 3rd Annual Grid Workshop from September 30th though October 3rd, in Vladivostok, Russia. Regional participants for this year's Grid Workshop include the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China, The Republic of Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, and Mongolia. The workshop seeks to discuss the costs and benefits of grid interconnection that range from emissions (and avoided emissions) of air and water pollutants from power generation, to the land use impacts in both transmission line and power plant construction, to the environmental impacts associated with the location of new, large transmission lines in sensitive ecological areas. Workshop papers can be found: here.

Nautilus Reveals State Department's Role in Reversing US Withdrawal from South Korea in Mid-70's

A case study from an Executive Seminar in National and International Affairs by Robert G. Rich entited "U.S. Ground Force Withdrawal From Korea: A Case Study in National Security Decision Making" was obtained through the US Freedom of Information Act and posted as part part of Nautilus' Global Disclosure Project. The report provides an insider's view (from the Korea Desk) on the bureaucratic stratagems used to reverse President Carter policy of withdrawing the Second Infantry Division from Korea in the mid-seventies.

Nautilus Cited in Reuters North Korea Analysis

A Policy Forum piece by Nicholas Ebestadt published by the Nautlus Institute was cited by Reuters on Sepetmber 25th in an analytic piece on North Korean Diplomacy entitled "Eerie N.Korea silence underscores need for talks." Ebestadt's Policy Forum essay, "Diplomatic Fantasyland: The Illusion of a Negotiated Solution to the North Korean Nuclear Crisis," argues that three obstacles prevent a peaceful DPRK diplomatic solution: Pyongyang's own nuclear intentions, he international precedents for other would-be proliferators that would be established by any deal that rewarded the DPRK, and Pyongyang's credibility as a negotiation partner.

September 19, 2003

Hayes Describes DPRK Recovery Scenarios

Nautilus Executive Director Peter Hayes addressed the Korea Development Institute's North Korean conference on Rebuilding North Korea's Economy on September 17 in Seoul. In his paper, he stated: "The empirical evidence of irreversible change in the DPRK combined with their own policy statements and rational self-interest indicates that there is a trade-in price for the DPRK's nuclear capacities. I believe that there is precedent for such an outcome. In the mid-1990s, the Ukrainians traded in 1,900 former Soviet nuclear warheads in exchange for security assurances, economic support, and energy assistance. It is possible that this model could work for the DPRK, as well. Underlying this view is the observation that the DPRK's leadership faces multiple, conflicting tradeoffs and dilemmas, and that nuclear weapons are a means, not an end."

Nautilus Prepares for the 3rd Grid Workshop in Vladivostok

The Nautilus Institute will be holding its 3rd Annual Grid Workshop, beginning on September 30th and ending on October 3rd, in Vladivostok, Russia. Regional participants for this year's Grid Workshop include the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China, The Republic of Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, and Mongolia. The workshop seeks to discuss the costs and benefits of grid interconnection that range from emissions (and avoided emissions) of air and water pollutants from power generation, to the land use impacts in both transmission line and power plant construction, to the environmental impacts associated with the location of new, large transmission lines in sensitive ecological areas. Workshop papers can be found: here.

Nautilus Launches New Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Site

The Nautilus Institute launched its Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) site this week. Starting with its first release, "Murder at Panmunjom," a paper that explores an explosive incident between US-ROK forces and the DPRK military at Panmunjom in 1976, known in the West as the "axe murder crisis." The Panmunjom paper is the first of many declassified government documents on foreign policy that the Nautilus Institute will be releasing as part of its new FOIA program.

Ahmad Addresses Globalization and the Challenge of Democracy

In his presentation at a forum on Democracy Today: Human Rights, Globalization, War and Peace, Zulfiqar Ahmad argued that the process of corporate globalization, at least in the short term, is likely to undermine the emergence and growth of an operative democratic polity in postcolonial societies. His presentation focused primarily on South Asia. The forum was organized by the California Institute for Integral Studies in San Francisco.

September 12, 2003

Nautilus Six-way DPRK Talks Special Report

In response to the collapse of the multilateral DPRK in Beijing, the Nautilus Institute posted a Special Report on the DPRK's "Package of Solutions" to the nuclear crisis that they presented at the talks. Essentially, the report recommends the United States signing a non- aggression treaty with the DPRK, the establishment of diplomatic relations with the DPRK, a guarantee of DPRK-Japan and inter-Korean economic cooperation, and the completion of light-water reactors. Read the full report: here.

Nautilus Seeks Global Fellows for Global Problem Solving

The Nautilus Institute is seeking applicants for its inaugural Global Fellows Program. We are inviting applications from organizations and individuals for a six week training program in "Tools for Global Problem Solving." Our focus will be on strategic uses of information technology, scenarios methodology, freedom of information act, and information/communication/news services. For information and the application, click: here.

Pegasus First Mates Train on Maintenance and Sailing

Five Pegasus volunteer first mates participated in a boat maintenance day under the guidance of Pegasus Captains Paul Marbury and Peter Hayes. After maintenance was complete, the first mates trained under sail in the bay in foggy conditions. Maintenance days and sail training voyages generate an increase in familiarity with Pegasus systems and handling. Expertise in these areas is necessary before becoming a Pegasus captain and commanding the vessel under sail with youth passengers.

September 5, 2003

Bipartisan Congressional Delegation Visits Unhari Village Windpower Project

A bipartisan delegation of congressional aides from the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee visited the US-DPRK Village Windpower Project at Unhari Village in North Korea on August 31, 2003. The delegation included Frank S. Jannuzi, professional staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and assistant to Senator Joseph Biden (Democrat, Delaware, Ranking Minority Member) and Keith Luse, professional staff member and assistant to Senator Richard Lugar (Republican, Indiana, Committee Chairman). The delegation visited North Korea immediately after the conclusion of the six-power talks in Beijing on the nuclear issue in Korea.

The villagers explained to the delegation how the wind turbine system works and technical difficulties that have arisen since the last maintenance mission in 2000. Nautilus Institute recently shipped a set of batteries to enable storage of energy supplied by wind turbines at Unhari to replace the original batteries supplied in 1998. The congressional aides told the DPRK counterparts that they viewed Unhari and other like projects as symbolizing the kind of economic cooperation that would be possible if the nuclear issue is settled in a positive manner.

Hayes Speaks to UC Berkeley Journalism Students on North Korea

Peter Hayes spoke to students at the Asia Colloquium of the University of California at Berkeley Journalism School on September 4, 2003. Peter explained how the nuclear issue arose in the DPRK during the Cold War and its aftermath, and the evolution of the Agreed Framework and the Bush Administration's policy. Peter also explained that he believed Kim Jong Il to be a rational actor, albeit one wearing a set of glasses tinted strongly with cultural orientations and looking through a dark prism at the external world. He said that it would take a miracle of adroit American diplomacy to talk and walk North Korea down from the nuclear cliff that it has climbed up since the war began with Iraq.

Nautilus Seeks Global Fellows for Global Problem Solving

The Nautilus Institute is seeking applicants for its inaugural Global Fellows Program. We are inviting applications from organizations and individuals for a six week training program in "Tools for Global Problem Solving." Our focus will be on strategic uses of information technology, scenarios methodology, freedom of information act, and information/communication/news services. For information and the application, click: here.

Hayes Keeps Public Informed on U.S. DPRK Policy

September 5, 2003:
BBC News Online cited Peter Hayes as saying that North Korea's test warning was "not a bluff, but also not necessarily a near-term threat. Rather, a way to kick Russia and China in the shins to get them to bring the US to the table with a credible roadmap of what they get if they trade in their nuclear deterrent."

September 5, 2003:
WBEZ Chicago Public Radio’s Worldview interviewed Peter Hayes on the swings in the Bush Administration’s policy toward North Korea. "It’s a bi-polar disorder, not a policy," he said.

Looking Beyond Old Formulas in Kashmir

Zulfiqar Ahmad participated in a 'Discussion Forum On Kashmir' held last week in San Francisco. Speakers at the forum, including Ahmad, argued that there is no military resolution to the dispute, and underscored the necessity of seeking creative solutions that can both accommodate changed realities in Kashmir and fulfill the political aspiration of the Kashmiri people.

Pegasus First Mates Train on Maintenance and Sailing

On Friday, August 29, five Pegasus volunteer first mates participated in a boat maintenance day under the guidance of Pegasus Captains Paul Marbury and Peter Hayes. After maintenance was complete, the first mates trained under sail in the bay in foggy conditions. Maintenance days and sail training voyages generate an increase in familiarity with Pegasus systems and handling. Expertise in these areas is necessary before becoming a Pegasus captain and commanding the vessel under sail with youth passengers.

August 29, 2003

Nautilus Releases 1976 US Defense Intelligence Agency DPRK Military Handbook

As part of the Military policy area of the DPRK Briefing Book, Nautilus published a formerly classified 1976 highly detailed report on the North Korean Military. It was obtained via the US Freedom of Information Act. While there is some text missing from the report, it contains valuable details of DPRK military organization, communications, strategy and doctrine that remain salient today. To read the entire report, click: here.

Nautilus Seeks Global Fellows for Global Problem Solving

The Nautilus Institute is seeking applicants for its inaugural Global Fellows Program. We are inviting applications from organizations and individuals for a six week training program in "Tools for Global Problem Solving." Our focus will be on strategic uses of information technology, scenarios methodology, freedom of information act, and information/communication/news services. For information and the application, click: here.

Hayes on Negotiations with North Korea in Mass Media

August 5, 2003: Peter Hayes was interviewed on Australia’s ABC Late Night Live national radio program on myths and realities of the North Korean nuclear threat. Peter told interviewer Philip Adams that by aligning itself with the most hardline impulse of the Bush Administration toward North Korea, Australia had abandoned any leverage over North Korea and other regional players. He said that the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative which met recently in Brisbane as totally inadequate, saying that "We strangle their narcotic exports; they get nuclear weapons. From a security perspective, this is ludicrous."

August 23, 2003: Sydney Morning Herald
An article in the Sydney Morning Heraled entitled "High stakes in nuclear poker" cited the Nautilus scenarios workshop and quoted Peter: "'North Korean scientists probably do have the capacity to engineer a nuclear bomb,' says Peter Hayes, co-founder of the Nautilus Institute independent think tank which organised the hypothetical. Given the regime's extensive smuggling networks, it's also likely they could sneak such a device into any port city in the world, including Sydney, inside a shipping container."

August 27, 2003: KALW 91.7 FM Upfront
KALW's show Upfront (San Francisco) interviewed Peter Hayes on possible outcomes of the Beijing six-power talks on North Korea's nuclear program and scenarios for peacefully resolving the challenge posed by the this program.

August 29, 2003: KPFA Morning Show (Berkeley)
KPFA interviewed Peter on the Beijing talks; KGNU 88.5 FM Connections (Boulder) interviewed Peter on U.S. North Korea: On the Nuclear Brink? Voice of America interviewed Peter on the completion of the nuclear talks and the North Korean reported statement that they intend to declare themselves a nuclear-weapons state and test a nuclear weapon. Peter said in these interviews that the North Korean test threat is the political equivalent of a classic Korean tae kwon martial arts move. "When a fighter moves to engage an adversary, he emits a shrill sharp scream to disorient and imbalance the opponent just before a blow is delivered. In my view, North Korea’s threat was aimed at China and Russia to assert that they had failed to induce the United States to outline a credible roadmap to ending the nuclear standoff at the six-power talks, and to increase the tensions between the great powers over what to do with North Korea."

Pegasus Sails with The Beat Within

On Friday, August 22, Pegasus sailed with youth and adult staff from Pacific News Service's The Beat Within -- a publication dedicated to the art and writing of troubled youth. The three hour bay voyage left the group, some of whom had never sailed on the bay, happily basking in the glory of the excursion according to Beat Within staff member Michael Kroll. Pegasus was crewed by volunteers Mark Caplin, Tim McAnulty, Jim Gaebe, Lynne Izbicki, David Driesbach, and Lea Prince.

August 22, 2003

Breaking News...

On the eve of North Korean multilateral talks in Beijing, the Nautilus Institute published "Whither the Coast of Salvation: Navigating Troubled Waters in Northeast Asia Amidst North Korean Nuclear Crisis" by Alexandre Mansourov. that argues that the international community has a rare historical opportunity to use the six-party talks in Beijing not just to settle old scores and pin down old enemies, but to advance the cause of Korean unification. Mansourov concludes that the Beijing process may well become "the contrarian's dream come true," surprise everyone, and turn out to be much more productive, far-reaching, and momentous than any previous talks on the North Korean nuclear problem. Read the essay: here.

Hayes Warns of North Korean 'Plutonium Pineapple'

In Hayes' essay entitled, "Plutonium Pineapples: Avoiding Awful Choices Over North Korean Nuclear Exports," he analyzes DPRK motivations for exporting capacities or materials related to nuclear weapons. Hayes also reviews the awful options facing an American President should the DPRK undertake such an export. He concludes that "no matter how unpalatable, the United States must do whatever it takes to avoid the DPRK obtaining sufficient nuclear material and/or weapons to export at all... [the U.S.] must act now to reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula and to avoid visiting the brink of war except on fundamental issues of US and allied survival." Read the full essay: here. For other DPRK Policy Forum essays, click: here.

Nautilus Extends Global Fellows Application Deadline

The Nautilus Institute has extended the deadline for its Global Fellows Program until September 15, 2003. Nautilus is seeking organizations and individuals for a six week training program in "Tools for Global Problem Solving." Our focus will be on strategic uses of information technology, scenarios methodology, freedom of information act, and information/communication/news services. For information and the application, click: here.

Hoodbhoy and Mian Debate Democracy, Nuclear Proliferation, and US Foreign Policy

The Nautilus Institute welcomed Professor Pervez Hoodbhoy, from Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad and Dr. Zian Mian from the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University for a discussion event. Hoodbhoy expressed concern that US foreign and nuclear weapons policies are undermining democratic forces in Muslim countries while weakening international mechanisms for the control of nuclear proliferation. Mian argued that the US cannot apply varying standards towards different states and still expect to control nuclear proliferation. Bios and writings of both speakers are available here.

Pegasus Celebrates the Summer Lifeskills Program

The Berkeley Boosters and the Alisa Ann Ruch Burn Foundation, sixteen students, sixteen volunteers, and a group of supporters were honored at an awards ceremony for their completion of the Pegasus Project Summer Lifeskills program. The Pegasus Lifeskills program is designed to build and nurture lifeskills in Bay Area youth by exposing them to new and exciting situations aboard the Nautilus Institute's Pegasus.