PFO 06-107:
North Korea Turns Back the Clock

Andrei Lankov, lecturer in the faculty of Asian Studies, China and Korea Center, Australian National University, writes, "news emanating from the North since late 2004 seems to indicate that the government is now working hard to turn the clock back, to revive the system that existed until the early 1990s and then collapsed under the manifold pressures of famine and social disruption."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-106:
Inspector O Gets a Thermos

James Church (a pseudonym) is the author of the detective novel, A Corpse in the Koryo, St. Martin's Press, New York, 2006. In this essay, Church meets Inspector O, the primary fictional character in A Corpse in the Koryo and discusses the state of play in the DPRK after the October 9th nuclear test.

Go to the report.

PFO 06-105:
Inspector O And The Case Of The Missing Tea Thermos

Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, contributes this review of A Corpse in the Koryo by James Church, a detective novel set in North Korea. Peter writes, "Those who want to really understand what is happening in North Korea should read this book, not only because it is gripping, but because it is the best unclassified account of how North Korea works and why it has survived all these years when the rest of the communist world capitulated to the global market a decade ago. This novel should be required bedtime reading for President Bush and his national security team."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-104:
Dead Talks Walking; North Korea and Removing the Bomb

Glyn Ford, Member of the European Parliament and part of the Parliament's Delegation for the Korean Peninsula, writes, "Pyongyang and Washington agree on one thing, that you can't trust the other. And they're both right. Any final solution requires both sides' agreement, but not enthusiasm. The nuclear package could be put together with South Korean money, Russian technology and Chinese political will."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-103:
Co-operation in the Malacca and Singapore Straits: A Glass Half-Full

Mark J. Valencia, a maritime policy analyst based in Hawaii and the author of "The Proliferation Security Initiative: Making Waves in Asia", writes, "Thus for both Straits states and user states the agreement is much ado about little. The only incremental change is the establishment of a forum in which user states can use to pressure the Straits states regarding their security concerns. User state assistance in improving safety and security in the Straits remains elusive. And the interests of the Straits states and the user states are likely to continue to clash."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-102:
Going Nuclear; Why Now And Now What?

Zhiqun Zhu, assistant professor of international political economy and diplomacy at the University of Bridgeport, writes, "Now that North Korea has taken a giant step towards joining the nuclear club, finger pointing is unhelpful. All major players involved share responsibilities for the diplomatic failure. The international community needs to think prudently what to do next."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-101:
The Democratic Party's Victory in the U.S. Midterm Elections and the North Korean Nuclear Issue

Moo-jin Yang, Director for External Affairs at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, writes, "With the reopening of the Six-Party Talks at hand and the Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections, it is highly possible that the means of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue will switch from the single track of sanctions to a two-track diplomacy of pressure and negotiations. South Korea must strengthen its role as an active mediator in the process of negotiations and utilize the opportunity presented by the restoration of inter-Korean relations."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-101:
What do the US Mid-Terms Elections Really Mean for East Asia?

The Singapore Institute for International Affairs (SIIA), a non-profit, non-governmental organization dedicated to the research, analysis and discussion of regional and international issues, writes, "tackling Southeast Asian health and terrorism problems seems to be the priority. For now, human right issues are still being brewed in the Congressional Democratic pot."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-100:
The Political Economy of Sanctions Against North Korea

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes, "If pressure exerted through economic, political, or military means increases to a level that is high enough to trigger a qualitative change such as regime collapse, we might end up with a successful surgery, but a dead patient. Both sanctions and assistance naturally involve a great deal of uncertainty and risk. But while we can still change the engagement therapy after the failure of one type of medicine, the failure of a hard-line approach will leave us with irreversible damage."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-99:
The Okinawan Election and Resistance to Japan's Military First Politics

Gavan McCormack, a coordinator at Japan Focus and author of the forthcoming book Client State: Japan in the American Embrace, writes, "In Okinawa more than anywhere else in Japan, the precarious and one-sided nature of the supposedly 'mature' and 'second-to-none' US-Japan relationship is palpable. In his eagerness to please his Washington friend, Prime Minister Koizumi promised Bush something that he almost certainly could not deliver: a solution to the long-running dispute over relocating the Futenma base; his successor, Abe, was left with the obligation to deliver on that promise."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-97:
Report on North Korean Nuclear Program

Siegfried S. Hecker, researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, writes, "My general impression is that the Oct. 9, 2006 nuclear test, which followed DPRK's Feb.10, 2005 announcement of having manufactured nuclear weapons, will make it much more difficult to convince the DPRK to give up its nuclear weapons... The prevalent view we found in China, with which I concur, is that the United States must demonstrably address DPRK's security before there is any hope of denuclearization."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-98:
Maritime Interdiction of North Korean WMD Trade: Who Will Do What?

In this article Mark J. Valencia, a maritime policy analyst based in Hawaii and the author of "The Proliferation Security Initiative: Making Waves in Asia", writes, "such interdictions, without the permission of the flag state, on or over the high seas, could be considered an act of war. Some thought North Korea was bluffing when it said it would launch ballistic missiles. They thought it was bluffing when it said it had a nuclear weapon. They also thought it was bluffing when it said it would test a nuclear weapon. Now it has threatened war if its vessels or aircraft are interdicted. Given this history of miscalculation on both sides, the United States and its friends in the region need to carefully consider if hey want to contribute to the cause of a possible Second Korean War."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-93:
Time to End the Korean War: The Korean Nuclear Crisis in the Era of Unification

Sheila Miyoshi Jager, Associate Professor of East Asian Studies at Oberlin College and the author (with Rana Mitter) of "Ruptured Histories: War, Memory and the Post- Cold War in Asia", writes, "Washington must come to terms with the emergence of pan-Korean nationalism in South Korea in which ending the Korean War is the main goal. In practical terms, this will require that the United States engage North Korea in direct bi-lateral talks aimed at finally settling the hostile relations between the two countries with the ultimate goal of concluding a peace treaty and establishing diplomatic relations."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-92:
The Taoist Enlightenment on Mt. Huashan: How American Eagle and North Korean Tortoise Can Get Along

Alexandre Y. Mansourov, Associate Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, writes, "The Taoist "Way" out of the current nuclear standoff between North Korea and the United States is based on four simple Tao wisdoms - "small steps together," "use help from others when in trouble," "know when enough is enough," and, finally, "doing less is doing more." It may look paradoxical and even heretic, but the Taoist conclusion is that the less we do in our quest to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis at present, the more we will achieve in the end and the safer we will all be in the meantime."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-91:
A New Tack for China after North Korea's Nuclear Test?

John J. Tkacik, Jr., Senior Research Fellow in China Policy in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation, writes, "The new and mature tenor of China's diplomatic rhetoric may signal a real change in Beijing's policies on North Korea - or it may reflect a Chinese tactic of 'soft on the outside' but 'hard on the inside' when engaging Washington. How receptive Beijing is to the U.S. call for enforceable sanctions on North Korea will reveal how serious China really is about being a responsible stakeholder."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-90:
North Korea has the Bomb. Now What?

Bennett Ramberg, who served in the State Department during President George H.W. Bush's administration and is the author of three books on international security, writes, "Finally, give the North a greater stake in its financial future - and reduce its isolation and paranoia - by encouraging the South's efforts at economic engagement. Economic intercourse may deliver another benefit. It could abate Pyongyang's incentive to sell military equipment - including nuclear materials, or even weapons - to generate hard currency. However, we cannot rely on this tack."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-86:
The Time of Reckoning: U.S. Vital Interests on the Korean Peninsula and Response to the Escalation of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Alexandre Y. Mansourov, Associate Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, writes, "The day after the nuclear test, we are all somewhat less secure, worse off, and closer to the second Korean War. This notwithstanding, the international community can attempt to turn this crisis into a unique opportunity to resolve the Korean question writ large once and for all through a multinational peace-making effort aimed at extending the benefits of secure and prosperous life in a free and open society to all Koreans living on a united peninsula, while establishing the foundations for a genuine regional multilateral security architecture capable of coping with the most difficult security challenges in Northeast Asia in a cooperative, effective, and mutually acceptable manner."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-85:
Dr. Strangelove in Pyongyang

Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, and Tim Savage, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, write, "The United States and China should also avoid falling into the "blame game" about who failed to prevent North Korea from testing. The Six Party Talks are now dead. As the two great powers involved directly with the North, they have to work together to develop a viable strategy to engage North Korea and restart negotiations, possibly in a new tripartite forum. If the United States baulks at engaging North Korea, then China and Russia will simply cut their own deals with Kim Jong Il in order to re-stabilize the situation."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-84:
Text of North Korea's Nuclear Test Announcement

The Korean Central News Agency issued this announcement claiming to have successfully tested a nuclear bomb on October 9th, 2006. The announcement coincided with an underground explosion in a mine in North Hamgyeong Province. The announcement notes, "the nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100%. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA (Korean People's Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defence capability."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-83:
Make Lemonade Out of Lemons: Invite North Korea to Join Japan/East Sea Survey

Mark J. Valencia, maritime policy analyst and Nautilus Institute Senior Fellow, writes, "The joint survey could relieve tension and even be a step towards joint development of resources such as fish, gas and minerals thought to be situated in the disputed area. North Korea should not be excluded from such a cooperative effort and any eventual joint development arrangement. Indeed, rather than ignore North Korea's claims and concerns and thereby further isolate and antagonize it, the two should invite it to join the survey."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-82:
The Stalker State: North Korean Proliferation and the End of American Nuclear Hegemony

Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, writes "If as I have suggested, the DPRK has become a nuclear stalker state that seeks to redress past wrongs and use nuclear leverage to force the United States to treat it in a less hostile and more respectful manner, then the United States will have to ask itself whether continued isolation and pressure on the regime is more likely, or less so, to ameliorate stalking behaviors in time of crisis, when the risk of nuclear next-use becomes urgent. Like a repeat offender, the DPRK is likely to continue to use nuclear threat to stalk the United States until it achieves what it perceives to be a genuine shift in Washingtons attitude. Unlike an individual who stalks, there is no simple way to lock up a state that stalks another with nuclear threat."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-81A:
PRC Scholar Analyzes Implications of a DPRK Nuclear Test

Shen Dingli, the Executive Deputy Director of the Institute of International Issues at the Fudan University, the director of the US Study Center of the Fudan University, and the director of the arms control and regional security research project, writes, "the DPRK considers its national interests to be greater than its relations with China. It will not give up the independent guarantee of national security gained through nuclear tests just because of China's concerns and the possibility of China applying pressure on it. Therefore the DPRK is bound to hold that the advantages of conducting a nuclear test outweigh the disadvantages; hence it will proceed with a nuclear test."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-80A:
Overcoming the Yasukuni Issue is Good for Both China and Japan

Shen Dingli, Executive Dean of Institute of International Studies, and Director of Center for American Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, and Tatsujiro Suzuki, Visiting Professor of Graduate School of Public Policy at University of Tokyo, Japan, write, "The history issue is an important issue of justice but should not hold the relationship hostage. As a former brutal colonizer, Japan has the moral responsibility to be sensitive and behave honestly while Beijing needs to develop a firm policy that is not subject to nationalism."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-78A:
Wabbit in Free Fall

Robert Carlin, former Chief of the Northeast Asia Division in INR at the State Department, presented this speech given by DPRK First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok Ju to a meeting of North Korean diplomats held in Pyongyang over the summer. The speech states, "On the nuclear question, the guidance is quite clear and you will stick to it, no matter how often you are pestered. Whether or not we will test is not for us to know. I can tell you this-the situation in Pyongyang is where we never wanted it to be. We have no standing at all, no weight, no credibility any longer to influence the decision."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-77A:
Are North Korea and China Drifting Apart after the Missile Test?

Suh Bohyuk, a former expert advisor at the National Human Rights Commission of Korea (NHRC) and now instructor of HUFS and other university, writes, "Sino-North Korea relations may be neither strongly attached nor completely broken, standing between such geographical reasons and different political decisions of the two countries. More profound discussions are needed about what significances such two-faced Sino-North Korea relations would have on peace on Korean peninsula."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-76A:
Foreign Policy as a 'Fight': Abe and the Future of East Asian Relations

Lee Jong-won, Professor of International Relations at Rikkyo University, writes, "He [Abe] still tends to invoke China as a threat, and he has been calling for a long-term strategy linking 'democratic nations' such as Australia and India together, based on the U.S.-Japanese alliance. Perhaps by intention, Korea - with the most dynamic democracy in the region - is not mentioned in that initiative... Even if the issue of Yasukuni is resolved, there will still be major factors producing instability in the Korea-Japan relationship that will have to be dealt with. Korea's policy toward Japan needs to be proactive and comprehensive enough to consider the diversity and changes in Japan."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-75A:
Missiles and Sanctions: Has a Watershed Been Reached in the Korean Nuclear Crisis?

James Cotton, Professor of Politics in the University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy campus, Canberra, writes, "North Korea's rejection of UN authority is unprecedented in modern times; it is also a serious reverse both to multilateral diplomacy as well as to the prospects for confidence-building in Northeast Asia. Reviving the Six-Party process and a return to the path of diplomacy will require Pyongyang to take a much more constructive approach to regional and global concerns regarding missile and WMD proliferation."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-74A:
Burma and Its Neighbours: The Geopolitics of Gas

Åshild Kolås & Stein Tønnesson of the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) note that offshore natural gas is now the major source of income for the Burmese military regime. A wider concern is "the current Sino-Indian rivalry over Burmese natural gas from the Shwe field", which, they suggest, "may give rise to further competition to assist the Burmese."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-73A:
Visualizing a North Korean 'Bold Switchover': International Financial Institutions and Economic Development in the DPRK

Bradley O. Babson, a consultant on Asian affairs specializing in Korea and Northeast Asian economic cooperation, writes, "By combining a phased approach to building a role for the World Bank in North Korea with a TRM supported by donors who provide both political aid and development assistance, it is possible to imagine a viable roadmap for moving forward with a complex and challenging agenda. Such a possibility could only be realized, however, if the DPRK were to adopt a bold switchover policy."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-72A:
North Korea's Missile Launches and Six-Party Talks

B. C. Koh, director of the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, writes, "As long as its sense of insecurity persists and as long as it clings to the conviction that nuclear weapons provide the only real deterrents to external attacks, the North Korean leadership will likely hang on to its nuclear and missile programs. This, however, is conjecture. The only way to test the North's true intentions is to resume the Six-Party Talks and craft a package that all the parties deem reasonable, fair, and workable."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-71A:
Misunderstandings on the Transfer of Wartime Operational Control

Chung-in Moon, professor of political science at Yonsei University, writes, "...the most pressing matters of the present are two-fold. One is the stable and effective management of the alliance by resolving American field officers grievances, such as the provision of air-to-ground test firing sites as well as a smooth resolution of the return of polluted American military bases. The other is a more in-depth and candid exchange of views on an increasingly divergent common threat perception, namely North Korea, upon which the true future of the ROK-US alliance may hinge."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-70A:
DPRK's Reform and Sino-DPRK Economic Cooperation

Li Dunqiu, Director of Division of Korean Peninsular Studies at the Institute of World Development Center of Development Studies, writes, "Sino-DPRK economic cooperation is growing in depth and width but both sides adopt a low-profile and practical attitude... In fact Chinese enterprises, both private and state-owned, are looking for greater room for their future development as a result of the constantly improving market economy in China. Amid such backdrop, the DPRK naturally becomes their target... It is not difficult to see that laws of the market economy are the most fundamental reason behind Chinese enterprises investment in DPRK."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-67A:
South Korean Civil Societys Response to the N.K. Missile Tests Follows Predictable Ideological Divides

Yi Kiho, Director of the South Korea office of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "What we can understand from the responses of each sector of civil society is that neither group is focused on the military threat posed by the missile launches... Instead of using the missile tests just to criticize the North Korean policies of the United States (in the case of progressives) or South Korea (in the case of conservatives), it would be more productive for South Korean NGOs to provide constructive alternatives. It is high time for South Korean civil society to put aside long-standing ideological differences and work together on building a peaceful future for the Korean Peninsula."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-66A:
North Korea's Missile Launches and South Korea's Response

Moo-jin Yang, a Professor of Economics at the Graduate School of North Korean Studies who writes widely on the North Korean Economy in both English and Japanese, writes, "South Korea has to take decisive steps in response to the provocative behavior of North Korea, but must also prepare an "exit" too. To stop the tension from rising further on the peninsula, we have to find ways to resolve the problems peacefully through dialogue. That is, we must maintain the basic dynamic force of inter-Korean relations and strengthen solidarity within the international community for the quick return to the Six-Party Talks."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-65A:
The Economic Implications of a North Korean Nuclear Breakout

Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics (IIE), writes "In short, the economic implications of a nuclear test for the region while not catastrophic, would not be benign. However, the likelihood of adverse economic repercussions is unlikely to pose a significant constraint on North Korean actions, and it is not difficult to come up with a scenario in which North Korean behavior does indeed convey large negative economic spillovers to its neighbors. This simply underscores the importance of cooperation to deter provocative behavior on the part of North Korea."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-64A:
Gaeseong Industrial Complex in Steady Progress Despite a Series of Negative Incidents

The ROK Ministry of Unification released this statement on the Gaesong project and the current status of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation. "Most of cash that flows into the complex is the wages and U.S. $ 0.5 million are paid on a monthly basis to cover living expenses for estimated 30,000-40,000 people including 8,000 workers and their family members. Given that number of people, is there something to be left for diversion?"

Go to the report.

PFO 06-63A:
Strange Tempests Follow Missile Tests

Kim Tae-kyung, a staff writer at OhmyNews specializing in Northeast Asia regional issues, writes "Thus, this event should be an issue between North Korea and the U.S. Of the many concerned countries, Japan has taken the hardest stance in response to North Korea's missile launch. Indeed, Japan acts as if it had been attacked by North Korea."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-62A:
What North Korea's Missile Test Means

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council, writes "The hard-liners believe Pyongyang is determined to arm and will never trade away its weapons. Their conviction is not just faith-based: it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Without a serious U.S. effort to negotiate, they are certain to be right."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-61A:
North Korea Focusing On Technological Development To Revive Economy

This report, published by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, notes, "North Korea has chosen technology as a national priority and refocused its budget through the principle of 'focus and choice.' Furthermore, it seems to be pursuing technological development by simultaneously renewing its existing industries and establishing a foundation for high technology."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-60A:
Embrace Tiger, Retreat To Mountain, Test Nuke

Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, writes "The DPRK can now take two paths. It can do nothing for a while, try to obtain the typical late year delivery of food aid from the ROK before winter hits, and hope to muddle through. Or, it can test and hope to adapt its economy in magnificent, nuclear-armed isolation, waiting for the world to adjustto the new strategic reality of North Koreas existence as a nuclear weapons state."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-59A:
DPRK Trip Report, July 4 - 8, 2006

Paul Carroll, Program Officer at the Ploughshares Fund, was one of three Americans present in the DPRK during the July 4th missile launches. He contributes this insightful trip report on what he saw there. One particularly interesting remark he notes was a statement by DPRK Vice Minister Kim Gae Gwan who made what seemed to be a reference to the DPRK-PRC relationship, "with respect to our missile launch, I am awaiting responses from other parties. What I hear is Big Brothers saying to Little Brother 'don't do that' but we are not a little boy, we have nuclear weapons."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-58A:
DPRK Foreign Ministry Statement Denounces UNSC Resolution Over DPRK Missile Launch

This statement was issued by the DPRK Foreign Ministry on July 16, 2006 in response to UN resolution 1695 condemning in the DPRK's July 4th missile test. The statements says "First, our Republic strongly denounces and fully condemns the UNSC resolution, a product of the US hostile policy toward the DPRK, and will not be bound to it in the least- Second, our Republic will strengthen its self-defensive war deterrent by all means and methods now that the situation has reached the worst phase due to the extremely hostile act of the United States."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-57A:
China's Army Yawns at Pyongyang's Missiles

John J. Tkacik, Jr., Senior Research Fellow in China Policy in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation, writes, "It is now incumbent upon the Bush Administration to face facts-- Without Chinese interest in disarming North Korea, much less moderating any of Pyongyang's other odious behavior, there is no solution to the North Korean problem."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-56A:
The Illusion of Operational Readiness of National Missile Defense

Lt. General Robert Gard, Senior Military Fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, and John D. Isaacs, Senior Policy Director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, write, “It is irresponsible to squander such large amounts on national missile defense when there are higher priority defense and domestic programs that remain under-funded… It is far more likely that rogue states or terrorists will obtain a nuclear weapon or nuclear materials and smuggle a nuclear device into the United States than delivering one by an ICBM.”

Go to the report.

PFO 06-55A:
Kim Jong Il vs George W. Bush: American National Security in the Balance

Desaix Anderson, who served for thirty-five years as a Foreign Service Officer at the U.S. State Department, working in and on Asian issues, was Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-92) and executive director of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) for over three years, writes, "Rather than 'staying the course,' President Bush should move quickly past the UN resolution on the rockets, put the best face possible on these developments, rein in his hardliners, appoint a full-time, high-level, fully empowered Coordinator for the Korean Peninsula, and instruct the Coordinator and rest of the Bush government to work urgently, patiently, flexibly, and innovatively to achieve a comprehensive solution to the North Korean nuclear and missile issues."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-54A:
Stop Hyperventilating, Start Talking

Peter Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, writes, North Koreas missile test was a strategic non-issue. Making a big deal out of it simply enabled the United States to delay dealing with the real issue and made it more likely that North Korea will now test its nuclear weapons. Thus, the outcome of North Koreas nuclear challenge once again hangs in the balance.

Go to the report.

PFO 06-53A:
North Korea's Missile Tests: Malign Neglect Meets Brinkmanship

Wonhyuk Lim, Nonresident Fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, writes, "If pre-emption is too risky and malign neglect is too ineffective, the only remaining alternative is to establish a credible red line and negotiate seriously with North Korea through bilateral and multilateral talks-- Otherwise, North Korea is sure to produce more fissile material and perfect its missile technology, escalating tension every once in a while to draw attention."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-52A:
North Korean Fireworks?

John Feffer, co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus, writes, "The Bush administration should listen to its Republican allies-Weldon, Murkowski, Lugar-and get serious about negotiating with North Korea. Renew the offer to satisfy Pyongyang's satellite desires. It might just get Kim Jong Il to listen."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-51A:
North Korea Stands to Lose with Missile Launch

Cheong Wooksik, representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea, writes, "The fear of another test not only diminishes the increasing demand for changes to North Korean policy but also covers up the discussion of the issue regarding North Korea's invitation to Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Assistant Secretary Christopher R. Hill."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-49A:
The Self-Reliant National Defense of South Korea and the Future of the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Taik-young Hamm, Professor of Political Science at Kyungnam University, writes, "The re-evaluation of the ROK-U.S. alliance is an opportunity for the South to pursue arms control and disarmament on the Korean peninsula, while enhancing its capabilities for strategic planning, intelligence, and operational skill through a series of defense reforms and taking the wartime OPCON of its forces."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-48A:
Will North Korea Launch a Long-range Missile?

Daniel A. Pinkston, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Monterey Institute of International Studies, writes, "Kim Jong Il and the National Defense Commission will weigh domestic and international factors in deciding whether to conduct the flight test. Kim knows his domestic audience better than anyone else, and he'll order the launch if the domestic benefits outweigh the international costs."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-47A:
Security in North East Asia

Stephen Noerper, head of the Institute of International Education's Scholar Relief Fund, writes, "State sovereignty remains the paramount consideration in North East Asia relations. The debate centres on the necessary preconditions, size and mandates for institutions. Gaps could be filled by new institutions, but there is limited scope for honest brokers. There are opportunities for progress in non-traditional security issues, including on disease, natural disaster and crime."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-46A:
KORUS FTA: A Pragmatic and Strategic View

Wonhyuk Lim, CNAPS Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Fellow at the Korea Development Institute (www.kdi.re.kr) and Korea National Strategy Institute (www.knsi.org), writes, "negotiations for the KORUS FTA actually run the risk of fueling anti-American sentiment in Korea and anti-Korean sentiment in the U.S.-exactly the opposite of what its proponents intended. This would be a shame, especially in light of the fact that bilateral trade and investment have been the saving grace of the ROK-US relations in recent years."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-45A:
North Korea's Military-First Policy: A Curse or a Blessing?

Alexander V. Vorontsov, Visiting Fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brooking Institution, writes, "Songun should not be automatically dismissed as an ideological dead-end. As the experience of South Korea under Park Chung-hee demonstrates, military rule can have positive effects on society under certain conditions."

Go to the report.

Read the discussion.

PFO 06-44A:
Can Economic Theory Demystify North Korea?

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes, "There is nothing mystical about North Korea; it is just a highly intransparent case of ordinary development - as easy or as hard to understand as any other example. It can be expected that the closer the institutional structure in North Korea comes to the international mainstream, the easier it will get to integrate this case into standard theoretical models and to compare it with other examples."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-43A:
Japan as a Base for the Defense of the US homeland: US Navy Missile Defense Operations in the Sea of Japan

Hiromichi Umebayashi, Founder and President of Peace Depot, a non-profit organization for peace research and education in Japan, writes that US Navy missile defense patrols in the Japan Sea are "a crucial component in exercises to develop the core of the whole integrated system US National Missile Defense system". Moreover, he argues, they mean that "something new has been born within the US-Japan alliance."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-41A:
The Proliferation Security Initiative in Perspective

Mark J. Valencia, a Maritime Policy Analyst in Kaneohe, Hawaii and Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "Most of the PSI's shortcomings stem from its ad-hoc, extra-UN, US driven nature. Bringing it into the UN system would rectify many of these shortcomings by loosening US control, enhancing its legitimacy, and engendering near universal support."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-40A:
The U.S.-China-Taiwan Triangle: Towards Equilibrium

Donald S. Zagoria, a trustee of the NCAFP, a private American think tank dedicated to resolving conflicts that threaten U.S. national interests, writes, "In sum, the conditions for equilibrium in the Taiwan Strait are now at least visible. It is possible but unlikely that President Chen, in his remaining two years in office, can or will challenge this equilibrium-- China, for its part, is unlikely in the short run to abandon its 'hearts and minds' strategy and will probably resume an official dialog with whichever party wins the Taiwan presidency in 2008."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-39A:
Making Progress While Marking Time

James Goodby, former U.S. ambassador to Finland, and Markku Heiskanen, an Associate Senior Fellow at the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) in Copenhagen, write, "Europeans can make a unique contribution to peace in Northeast Asia: they have shown that multi-national cooperation really works. Its example complements the American emphasis on power relationships, which is also a reality in today's international system."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-38A:
Japanese Discovery of Democracy

Masaru Tamamoto, editor of JIIA Commentary, an information service from the Japan Institute of International Affairs, writes, "Japan is in the midst of searching for a post-economic identity in the international world, especially in Asia. The search is for a new hierarchy in which Japan can claim leadership status Organizing the world in terms of a hierarchy of democratic evolution is another way of awarding Japan leadership status in Asia. But, in the end, the real question of Japanese national identity is whether Japan in Asia can develop a sense of equality."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-37A:
Japan and Korea: Between A Legal Rock and a Hard Place

Mark J. Valencia, a Maritime Policy Analyst in Kaneohe, Hawaii and Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "the maritime boundary cannot be resolved until there is agreement on what to do about the sovereignty of the islands. One possibility would be to enclave the islands in a 12 nm territorial sea circle and to agree on a boundary equidistant between Ullung and Oki islands. This approach would ignore the islets and leave their sovereignty to be determined by a wiser generation."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-36A:
An Instinct for the Capillaries

Leon V. Sigal, director of the Northeast Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York, writes, "whatever leverage Washington may have, leverage without negotiations makes no sense. It is time for President Bush to make a strategic decision freeing Chris Hill to meet with the North Koreans and arming him with real leverage that comes from making conditional promises and keeping them, not spouting airy threats."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-35A:
US Financial Allegations -- What They Mean

Nigel Cowie, General Manager of Daedong Credit Bank, writes, "the result of these actions against banks doing business with the DPRK being that criminal activities go underground and harder to trace, and legitimate businesses either give up, or end up appearing suspicious by being forced to use clandestine methods."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-32A:
Mongolia at 800: Toward Enhanced U.S. and International Support

Stephen E. Noerper, head of the Institute of International Education's Scholar Relief Fund, dedicated to saving individuals and ideas, writes, "today, Mongolia faces enormous problems from rising oil prices to declining health care. As the people of Mongolia struggle to grow their democracy through challenges and crises, the U.S. and other nations need to enhance support to guarantee that Mongolian democracy continues to serve as a harbinger for Central and East Asia."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-31A:
China Begins Oil Route Experiment in Mekong

Chua Hearn Yuit, Researcher at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Yeo Lay Hwee, Director and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, write, "The turn of the tide appears to have arrived for renewed confidence in developing nuclear energy as an alternative power source in the region since the global spectre of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, but more needs to be done in the areas of public education and measures to maintain both political and environmental security."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-30A:
Transforming an Asymmetric Cold War Alliance: Psychological and Strategic Challenges for South Korea and the U.S.

Wonhyuk Lim, CNAPS Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Fellow at the Korea Development Institute, and Korea National Strategy Institute writes, "The alternative is to deal with South Korea on more equal terms and engage it as a partner in building a new order in the region, facilitating China's gradual transition and resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis to end the Cold War in Northeast Asia."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-29A:
China Begins Oil Route Experiment in Mekong

Lim Tai Wei, researcher at the Singapore Institute for International Affairs (SIIA), published this report through the South-East Asia Peace and Security Network (SEAPSNet). Lim Tai Wei writes, "Even if it cannot be a main route of oil supply for China, the Mekong can certainly be an emergency route for Beijing's strategic needs. This seems to be the message in China's official news agency Xinhua as its headline article ran the word "explores" in covering this story."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-28A:
South Korea-U.S. Alliance Under the Roh Government

Selig S. Harrision, who has visited North Korea nine times, most recently in April, and is the author of "Korean Endgame", writes "during his remaining two years in office, President Roh could seek to make the alliance more compatible with his North Korea policies in three ways. First, he could pursue mutual North-South force reductions in bilateral discussions with Pyongyang, resisting pressures from the Pentagon and his own military-industrial complex. Second, he could press for the more 'open and equal' alliance discussed by Ruediger Frank in the January Korea Policy Review. Finally, he could step up efforts to promote a trilateral peace treaty ending the Korean War."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-25A:
The MSDF Indian Ocean Deployment -- Blue Water Militarization in a 'Normal Country'

Richard Tanter, Acting Director of Nautilus Institute at RMIT, and coordinator of the Austral Peace and Security Project http://nautilus.org/~rmit/index.html, writes "The Indian Ocean MSDF deployments, which, like the ASDF deployment, are set to continue after the withdrawal of ground troops from Iraq, represent a crucial advance in the process of Heisei militarization."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-24A:
China Goes West

Glyn Ford, member of the European Parliament representing South West England, writes "European intervention to pressure Taiwan to maintain the cross strait status quo has been solicited by China. We should intervene to since instability in China helps no-one."

Go to the report.

Read the discussion.

PFO 06-22A:
Only Continued Pressure, Combined With Inducements, Can Bring End to North Korean Nuclear Program

Aaron L. Friedberg, an East Asian expert who served as Vice President Dick Cheney's deputy national security adviser from 2003 to 2005, says North Korea has boycotted new talks on ending its nuclear arms program because of the U.S. program of cracking down on North Korean counterfeiting and other illicit activities. But Friedberg says such pressure is the only way to hope for a breakthrough.

Go to the report.

PFO 06-21A:
Trilateral Congregation - Condi Rice's attempts in 'Containing' China?

Yeo Lay Hwee, Executive Director and Senior Research Fellow at SIIA, and Lim Tai Wei, Research Associate at SIIA, analyze Condoleezza Rice's statement that "China could become a 'negative force' in the Asia-Pacific region" and the impact of efforts to find a "common position on how to engage the Asian economic powerhouse" between the US, Japan, and Australia.

Go to the report.

PFO 06-20A:
KTU/SU Summary Status Report

This summary report by Syracuse University discusses its development of "bilateral research collaborations with Kim Chaek University of Technology (KUT), Pyongyang." "Outcomes thus far include twin lab designs, software specifications, joint work on proving computer program correctness, presentations in English of research results by KUT and SU participants, and an academic paper written jointly by representatives of KUT, SU, the DPRK Mission, and TKS."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-19A:
Strategic Flexibility of U.S. Forces in Korea

Lee Chul-kee, a professor in international relations at the Dongguk University, writes, "We must build a cooperative multilateral security system for Northeast Asia, instead of a bilateral alliance system. Peace and reunification of Korean peninsula will be possible only when Northeast Asian order becomes multilateral, balanced and cooperative."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-18A:
Is China the Nemesis in a New Cold War?

Emanuel Pastreich, visiting scholar at the Center for East Asian Studies, University of Pennsylvania and a Japan Focus associate, writes, "The United States is losing its economic and cultural authority through the lethal mixture of ballooning trade deficits and torture scandals. The danger is that a classic military reflex will be one of the few tools left in the chest at a time when the U.S. needs a far more varied and sophisticated set of responses to negotiate successfully the path ahead."

Go to the report.

Read the discussion.

PFO 06-17A:
Linking Europe and Northeast Asia

James Goodby, former U.S. ambassador to Finland and current Senior Fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at The Brookings Institution, and Markku Heiskanen, a senior Finnish diplomat, who is currently Associate Senior Fellow of the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, Copenhagen write, "Two inter-Korean railway corridors are now waiting for the first test trains to cross the demilitarized zone, for the first time in half a century. The EU supports the "Iron Silk Road"--the initiative of former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung to connect the Korean peninsula to Europe through a Eurasian railway network."

Go to the report.

Read discussion of this essay by Aidan Foster-Cater.

Read discussion of this essay by Georgy Bulychev.

PFO 06-16A:
Kim Jong Il's Southern Tour: Beijing Consensus with a North Korean Twist?

Wonhyuk Lim, a CNAPS Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Fellow at the Korea Development Institute (KDI), and Korea National Strategy Institute (KNSI), writes, "After a decade of economic crisis, only the infusion of external capital would provide a substantive solution to the capital-labor coordination problem and put economic growth on a more stable trajectory... After his Southern Tour, Kim Jong Il should have a much better idea about how to develop an economic model suited to North Korea's specific conditions."

Go to the report.

PFO 06-15A:
China's Nuclear Forces: The World's First Look at China's Underground Facilities for Nuclear Warheads

Thomas B. Cochran, Matthew G. McKinzie, Robert S. Norris, Laura S. Harrison, and Hans M. Kristensen, analyzing China's nuclear forces in the publication Imaging Notes, write, "While President George W. Bush and President Hu Jintao spent their time in November discussing economic and regional issues, both of their military establishments were busy modernizing the nuclear forces. China is nowhere near nuclear parity with the United States, but both countries seem poised to modernize their nuclear forces with an eye to the other's intentions and capabilities."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-14A:
Sanctions on Pyongyang Will Backfire

Kim Myong Chol, author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea. He is executive director of the Center for Korean-American Peace, and is often called an "unofficial" spokesman of Kim Jong-il and North Korea, writes, "If the financial sanctions are intended to cut off North Korea's income source to fund the nuclear-weapons development program, it is highly unlikely that the objective will be accomplished."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-13A:
When in Doubt, Blame South Korea: The Politics of Food Aid to North Korea

Wonhyuk Lim, a CNAPS Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Fellow at the Korea Development Institute (KDI), and Korea National Strategy Institute (KNSI), writes, "the controversy over food aid to North Korea may be regarded as yet another example of this tendency to ignore changing realities and criticize engagement without producing a viable policy alternative. The end of the Cold War showed that even "an evil empire" was full of normal people and leaders who could bring about an enormous change when it was engaged with the outside world. Perhaps a return to what worked in the past may be a better policy than wishing for a regime change without any realistic strategy."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-11A:
The East Timor Truth Commission Report Shines

Gerry van Klinken, Australian historian and editor of Inside Indonesia, writes "The denial of East Timor's right to self-determination - always acknowledged by the UN - was an international project, and it's only fair the world should make amends. This is the 'to do' list: contribute the relevant archives to East Timor, cough up (from the profits of arms sales!) for victim compensation, table the CAVR report publicly (this one aimed at Indonesian school textbooks), and help prosecute all those responsible."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-09A:
China's 'Abandonment' of NK a U.S. Neo-Con Fantasy

Kim Tae Kyung, reporter at OhMyNews.com, writes "the expectation that the Chinese leadership would feel burdened by throwing money down the North Korean hole is fading when one considers that China has been the world's sixth largest economy since last year. Moreover, in order to avoid throwing money "into a bottomless pit," China is stressing -- almost forcing -- North Korea to reform and open up. Ultimately, the argument of U.S. neo-cons that China would abandon North Korea is becoming a dream or "fantasy" that can never come true."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-08A:
Taking Care of Business

Bruce Klingner, Korea analyst for Eurasia Group, the world's largest political-risk consultancy firm, writes "even if China could achieve a resumption of six-party talks - most likely by having Pyongyang agree to distinguish between the illegal actions of 'rogue' North Korean companies and the government - the nuclear negotiations would remain deadlocked."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-07A:
Eurasia Burning: A Dark Day for Mongolian Democracy

Steve Noerper, who teaches Asia Today at New York University and was a Fulbright Senior Scholar to the National University of Mongolia, writes "the downfall of Mongolia's coalition government late Friday marks a relapse for freedom's progress in a country that until recently had been held out as a harbinger for new democracies in the region."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-05A:
Risks and Hopes for N.E. Asia Peace

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes "there is both a high risk of conflict as well as a good chance for progress on the Korean Peninsula.The Korean government therefore has a chance to actively shape the Northeast Asian future by its efforts toward North Korea, and it can utilize regional dynamics to support its policy toward the DPRK. Maintaining a proper relationship with the United States appears to be of key importance for either task."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-02A:
China Raises its Stake in North Korea

Andrei Lankov, a lecturer in the faculty of Asian Studies, China and Korea Center, at Australian National University who is currently on leave, teaching at Kookmin University, Seoul, writes "active intervention in North Korea will undermine the remarkable goodwill toward China, which can be seen among many neighbors as the rising giant. So, it is more likely that the Chinese will avoid political adventurism and limit themselves to gaining economic advantages in the northern part of the Korean peninsula."

Go to the essay.

PFO 06-01A:
Pan-Korean Nationalism, Anti-Great Power-ism and U.S.-South Korean Relations

Col. Jiyul Kim, Director of Asian Studies at the US Army War College, writes "South Korean politics is in a profound period of transition as the result of a generational shift, the end of the Cold War, democratization, and growing self-confidence. Among the emerging political forces, those that are creating the most important political fault lines are the ideologies of pan-Korean nationalism and anti-Great Power-ism. These trends could well mark the end of the U.S. -- South Korean alliance as we know it."

Go to the essay.

The Nautilus Policy Forum Online is intended to provide expert analysis of contemporary issues in Northeast Asia, and an opportunity to participate in discussion of the analysis. As always, Nautilus invites your responses to this report.

Copyright (c) 2001 Nautilus of America/The Nautilus Institute