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Nautilus Institute's Policy Forum Online's focus is on the timely publication of expert analysis and op-ed style pieces on the foremost of security-related issues to Northeast Asia. Its mission is to facilitate a multilateral flow of information among an international network of policy-makers, analysts, scholars, media, and readers. Policy Forum essays are typically from a wide range of expertise, political orientations, as well as geographic regions and seeks to present readers with opinions and analysis by experts on the issues as well as alternative voices not typically presented or heard. Feedback, comments, responses from Policy Forum readers are highly encouraged.

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PFO 09-094:
Symbolism of the New North Korean Currency: Heralding a Change of Power in North Korea?

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, writes, "Technically, the new North Korean currency is an attempt to bring the economy back under control. But the picture of the elderly Kim Il-sung, the first-ever appearance of Kim Jong-il, and the reminder that these two leaders form a unity and that the Party is above the military also indicate that a power change in North Korea is drawing closer."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-093:
North Korea: A Date in Pyongyang – but What Real Hope?

Aidan Foster-Carter, Honorary Senior Research Fellow in Sociology & Modern Korea at Leeds University, writes, "Nuclear weapons may be misguided self-defence, but state crime is North Korea's unforced and persistent choice. This is a pit Pyongyang dug for itself, as it has so many others - while often resisting or even biting the helping hand that offers to pull it out. So the fear must be that Kim Jong-il has no desire to go straight; that indeed he cannot conceive of doing so. Or again, in all honesty what hope is there for a ruler who quails in fear at TV adverts for beer?"

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PFO 09-092:
Currency Reform and Orthodox Socialism in North Korea

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, writes, "In hindsight, we will realize that the currency reform of December 2009 might have been a short-term victory for the North Korean government, but that it was not able to root out private economic activities and in the long run contributed significantly to a dangerous loss of the system's legitimacy."

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PFO 09-078:
North Korea's Second Nuclear Test: Implications of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874

The Congressional Research Service prepared this report on the implications of UNSC Resolution 1874 which placed "sanctions on North Korea's arms sales, luxury goods, and financial transactions related to its weapons programs, and calls upon states to inspect North Korean vessels suspected of carrying such shipments." The report outlines the main provisions of the bill and notes the implications of both the resolution and the sanctions it imposes.

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PFO 09-077:
Japan's Challenges and Dilemmas over Nuclear Disarmament

Masa Takubo, an independent analyst on nuclear issues and Operator of the Nuclear Information website Kakujoho, writes, "the fear-mongering claims that Japan will want nuclear weapons if the US adopts a new policy need to be examined more rigorously. Misinterpretation of Japan's intentions should not become the reason for no change. Nor should Japan be used as an excuse by those who want to keep US nuclear policies stuck in the cold war."

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PFO 09-076:
China Civil Society Report: Public Interest Litigation in China

Qiong Qiao and Zhou Hualei write, "Public interest litigation aims to adjust the unequal allocation of resources as it impacts the poorest and most marginalized groups in society. However, in the current situation public lawyers themselves are a vulnerable group."

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PFO 09-075:
A Smart Alliance in the Age of Complexity; ROK-U.S. Alliance in the 21st Century

Seongho Sheen, assistant professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University and member of Policy Advisory Board of the ROK Ministry of Defense, writes, "It is clear that the two allies need each other to face both old and new challenges. The alliance needs change to deal with those challenges more effectively. A smart alliance combining a hard and soft approach will provide answers for one of South Korea’s ‘closest friends and greatest allies' of the twenty-first century."

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PFO 09-074:
Hatoyama Government and Japan's Defense Guidelines: Pause or End to Alliance Deepening?

Sourabh Gupta, Senior Research Associate at Samuels International Associates, Inc., writes, "the Hatoyama government issued Defense Guidelines could potentially facilitate the SDF’s deployment in threat-based instances, both in rear area military support mode and pre-and-post-conflict 'policing' mode collective security operations – subject to the minimum condition that such deployment be covered by an explicit U.N. Chapter VII mandate. And by the same token, military or policing activities beyond individual self-defense ceilings that are seen to be loosely authorized, either of its own accord or at the initiative of the U.S. and select allies, will not be entertained - short of Japan suffering a direct armed attack."

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PFO 09-073:
Japan between Alliance and Community

Yul Sohn, Professor of International Studies at Yonsei University, writes, "a traditional military alliance is necessary yet insufficient to deal with Japan’s new strategic dilemmas... Japanese leaders should recognize that what is needed is not tightening up but transforming the alliance structure into a complex one."

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PFO 09-070:
Civil Society Reaction to the "Green Dam" Internet Filter Software

Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, writes, "because of the importance of freedom of expression and the value of information to promote social justice the government should control and supervise the internet very cautiously. That's why people are concerned about Green Dam. Qin suggests that, except for illegal information which is banned by law enacted through due process and authority, adult citizens should asses the harmfulness of information, not the government."

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PFO 09-069:
The Way to Denuclearize North Korea

Wooksik Cheong, Representative of the Civil Network for a Peaceful Korea, writes, "If North Korea denuclearized it would lose its leverage to compel the US to fulfill the agreement. This is a fundamental asymmetry in the US-North Korea relationship. Once North Korea denuclearizes itself, the process will be very difficult to reverse. However, for the US, it is easy to change its policy toward a denuclearized North Korea."

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PFO 09-068:
Understanding New Opportunities to Enhance Human Security in the DPRK

John S. Park, Senior Research Associate and Director of Northeast Asia projects at the U.S. Institute of Peace's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention and an Associate with the Harvard Kennedy School's Managing the Atom Project, writes, "NGOs and government organizations seeking to achieve economic development goals can work closely with Chinese merchants to leverage routes and mechanisms to increase the flow of goods across HamJi. In doing so, these various players can substantially help improve human security in a key part of North Korea."

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PFO 09-067:
No Rush to Talk With North Korea

Andrei Lankov, Associate Professor at Kookmin University, writes, "Perhaps the most important reason why Pyongyang should be engaged is the long-term domestic impact of talks. Negotiations and aid create an environment where contacts between the isolated population and the outside world steadily increase, exposing the total lie in which North Koreans have to live. In the long run, this will undermine the regime, bringing the country’s radical transformation - and, probably, a solution of the nuclear issue."

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PFO 09-066:
Extended Deterrence: Cutting Edge of the Debate on Nuclear Policy

Barry M. Blechman, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center and a Stimson Distinguished Fellow, writes, "the contrast between murmurings of defense officials in private meetings and their horror at the thought of public debate about nuclear deployments makes clear that extended deterrence is a concept that served a vital purpose during the Cold War, but whose time has come - and gone."

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PFO 09-065:
The Significance of Clinton's Visit to North Korea

Tong Kim, Adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS and a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies, writes, "it is high time that both Washington and Pyongyang take a fresh look at where they are and to get out of the box in search for a bold pragmatic path toward a win-win resolution of the half century old U.S.-North Korea hostile relationship. North Korea can survive without nuclear weapons and the United States can undertake negotiations before the North gives up its nuclear programs. The Clinton trip offers both sides a fresh opportunity to make the first positive move."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-064:
Clinton's Mission to Pyongyang

John Delury, Associate Director of the Asia Society's Center on U.S.-China Relations and director of the North Korea Inside Out Task Force, writes, "the symbolism around Mr. Clinton's visit, and his direct talks with Kim Jong Il, suggests we may be on the cusp of some positive movement, at last. With wise, creative and determined follow-through, hopefully Pyongyang and Washington can make some verifiable and irreversible (if not complete) improvement in normalizing their relationship."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-063:
How Light Water Reactors Figure into Negotiations with North Korea

Jeff Goldstein, a State Department desk officer for North Korea from 1994 to 1996, writes, "the provision of a LWR will not be the centerpiece of an agreement, as was the case with the Agreed Framework… this time around, Pyongyang will certainly demand far more concrete concessions from the United States and its allies in those areas. Nevertheless, a LWR project might be a useful - perhaps even an essential - component of a negotiated resolution that achieves the goal of verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-062:
Why is North Korea so Aggressive? Kim Jong-il's Illness and North Korea's Changing Governing Style

Choi Jinwook, Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), writes, "North Korea has taken a harsher position since Kim Jong-il's illness. It is not the Department of United Front but the military that plays a more important role in inter-Korean relations… The decision to launch a long-range rocket and carry out a nuclear test was clearly made by the military, not the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The military seems to believe that it needs to become a nuclear power rather than try to resume talks with the United States at an earlier date."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-061:
UN Sanctions Unlikely to Make North Korean Back Down

Liu Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, writes, "If, as seems to be the case, the North Korean leadership is entering a transitional period, the new leader will face a strategic dilemma: whether to continue promoting denuclearization at the cost of worsening the economic situation. In the end, the final choice will be up to North Korea's elite and people."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-060:
The Sulawesi Sea Situation: Stage for Tension or Storm in a Teacup?

Mark. J. Valencia, Visiting Senior Fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, and Nazery Khalid, Senior Fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, write, "there may be room for a co-operative solution like joint development, as practiced between Malaysia and Thailand in the Gulf of Thailand, although given the recent history the sharing would probably have to be largely in Indonesia's favor... The relationship between the two is too close and precious to be soured over this issue, hence both parties must work hard at containing the dispute and settling it amicably for the sake of preserving bilateral ties and regional stability."

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PFO 09-059:
Too Much Importance Attached to 'Ship of Fools'

Tim Savage, Deputy Director of the Nautilus Institute’s Seoul office, writes, "In the short term, we are thus unlikely to see a rapid return to negotiations, or any kind of capitulation to pressure on the part of North Korea. Instead, we are likely in for a long period of containment and stalemate, while the surrounding nations wait to see the outcome of the ongoing succession saga in Pyongyang. The only problem with this approach is that North Korea -- as it showed once again with its recent volley of missile tests -- does not like to be ignored, and has several tools for getting attention."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-058:
North Korea Entering a New Phase: 'We Are Not Interested in the U.S. Anymore'

Amii Abe, Visiting Fellow at the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, writes, "In summation, though North Korea has strong suspicions against the U.S. and has lost the enthusiasm to negotiate with Washington, they still need to talk with the U.S. at the end of the day... First of all, we need to pay attention not only to Kim Jong-Il or the next successor, but also to the hard-liners who affect decision-making in North Korea... Secondly, imposing new sanctions is necessary, but is not enough... to change the situation, the U.S. needs more fundamental action than ever before; to deal with the DPRK's focus on the legacy of the Korean War."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-057:
Sending Another 'Jimmy Carter' to N. Korea

Selig S. Harrison, Director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy, writes, "Progress towards denuclearization would require U.S. steps to assure North Korea that it will not be the victim of a nuclear attack... Realistically, if the U.S. is unwilling to give up the option of using nuclear weapons against North Korea, it will be necessary to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea while maintaining adequate U.S. deterrent forces in the Pacific."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-056:
Pyongyang Strikes Back: North Korean Policies of 2002–08 and Attempts to Reverse "De-Stalinization from Below"

Andrei Lankov, Associate Professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, writes, "It is difficult to believe that any effort to reverse the tremendous social changes of the past fifteen years will be completely successful. Still, the period of largely unhindered de-Stalinization from below is over. North Korean authorities are working hard to re-Stalinize the country and to revive the old patterns of a centrally planned and heavily controlled state socialism."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-055:
What's Driving Pyongyang?

Scott Snyder, Director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and a Senior Associate at Pacific Forum CSIS, writes, "Obama administration must go beyond a focus on disciplining North Korea's leaders and offer a positive vision for the future of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia that would clarify US expectations and intentions toward the region."

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PFO 09-054:
China Civil Society Report: Solving the Cooperation Model between Foundations and Grassroots NGO

Xu Hui, a reporter with the Public Welfare Times, describe the changing relationship between foundations, government oriented NGOs, and grassroots NGO in China. He describes the existing relationship between these groups, its benefits and challenges, and the potential value of alternative models.

Go to the report.

PFO 09-053:
Pyongyang Turns Back the Clock

Leonid Petrov, Research Associate at the Australian National University, writes, "the era of relaxation and experimentation, which prompted the beginning of inter-Korean cooperation, is well and truly over. North Korea is headed for a major retreat, back to military communism. Only those elements of market economy which are necessary to keep the country afloat are being preserved."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-052:
North Korea and the Importance of Arms Control

Donald G. Gross, former counselor of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, writes, "The administration can strongly oppose nuclear proliferation while still upholding the principles of arms control that have helped keep America safe for more than a generation. A policy approach that preserves an honored place for arms control negotiations is in the best interests of the United States and its allies, now and in the future."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-050:
Mongolia and the International Community

Stephen Noerper, Senior Fellow, Asia, at the EastWest Institute and Senior Associate of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "As a refreshing alternative to tussles with a bellicose North Korea, oft labeled a hermit, the United States should applaud Mongolia, the horseman of North Asia. Mongolia has listened to international requests, embraced its responsibilities and grown itself as one of the region's more vibrant locales."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-048:
UNSC Anti-North Korea Resolution a Recipe for Conflict?

Mark Valencia, a Visiting Senior Fellow with the Maritime Institute of Malaysia and Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "To get China and Russia to agree to more binding and mandatory language, the U.S. should 'walk the tal'’ of President Obama's promise to 'listen', 'compromise' and 'co-operate' in multilateral endeavors. In other words, it will have to give up control of the decision to interdict, the definition of 'reasonable grounds' to do so, and the actual interdiction itself."

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PFO 09-047:
Moving From a North Korean Nuclear Problem to the Problem of North Korea

Chaesung Chun, the Chair of the Asia Security Initiative at the East Asia Institute and an associate professor in the Department of International Relations at Seoul National University, recommends eight strategic principals for dealing with the DPRK nuclear issues including, "Search for new policy issues that will contribute to the project of 'normalizing North Korea.'... We need to convince the North that the common goal of South Korea and the United States is to further the successful long-term future of North Korea, so long as it functions within global norms. Projects might focus on long-term policy areas such as education, infrastructure, and state finance."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-046:
Ramifications of the North Korean Nuclear Test

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council, writes, "The only way to [test North Korea's intentions] is to probe through sustained diplomatic give-and-take. That requires offering meaningful steps toward a new political, economic, and strategic relationship--including diplomatic recognition, a summit meeting, a peace treaty to end the Korean war, negative security assurances, and a multilateral pledge not to introduce nuclear weapons into the Korea Peninsula as well as other benefits to its security, agricultural and energy assistance, and conventional power plants if possible or nuclear power plants if necessary."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-045:
Ramifications of the North Korean Nuclear Test

Emily B. Landau and Ephraim Asculai, Senior Research Fellows at the Institute for National Security Studies, write, "Without strong action on the part of the US, we might enter a new dynamic with parallel developments: nuclear proliferation that proceeds at an accelerated pace, together with inspiring but ineffective talk about (unheeded) international arms control treaties. So unless the US and its allies coordinate their moves, recognizing the acute seriousness of the North Korean nuclear challenge for both the immediate region and beyond, the situation will continue to deteriorate and could reach a dangerous point of no return."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-044:
Winning, not Playing the Nuclear Game with North Korea

Peter Hayes, Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute, and Scott Bruce, Director of the Institute's San Francisco office, write, "it is time to win the game, not play it forever. This is within President Obama's reach, but only if he rises above emotional and unrealistic talk of punishing North Korea and focuses on the big picture changes to the strategic landscape that would be necessary to strike a deal with Kim Jong Il worth having."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-042:
North Korea's Nuclear Test of International Resolve

Stephen Noerper, Senior Fellow, Asia, at the EastWest Institute and Senior Associate of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "What needs to occur among the U.S., its allies Japan and South Korea, and dialogue partners China and Russia is a seriously enhanced commitment toward solving rather than simply managing the North Korea problem."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-041:
Flood Across the Border: China’s Disaster Relief Operations and Potential Response to a North Korean Refugee Crisis

Drew Thompson, Director of China Studies and Starr Senior Fellow at The Nixon Center, and Carla Freeman, Associate Director of China Studies at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, write, "Chinese authorities are likely to conclude that based on the challenges that they will undoubtedly face in addressing a North Korean refugee crisis unfolding in Yanbian and elsewhere in the border region, the best solution available to them is to prevent a refugee crisis from unfolding on Chinese territory at all. It is therefore possible that PRC authorities are considering mounting operations within DPRK territory to prevent the largest waves of refugees from reaching the border and overwhelming civilian agencies operating within China.

Go to the report.

PFO 09-040:
China Civil Society Report: Charitable Donation in China

Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, and Zhao Yusi, Project Assistant of NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, describe the increase in donations to NGOs and public charities in China after the snow storm and Wenchuan earthquake. They note trends on the source of these donations, the organizations receiving them, and the oversight and transparency involved in the donation process.

Go to the report.

PFO 09-039:
The New Korean Cold War and the Possibility of Thaw

Georgy Toloraya, Director of Korean Research Programs at the Institute of Economics at the Russian Academy of Science, writes, "First, a paradigm of US-DPRK coexistence has to be worked out based on the assumption that the Pyongyang regime is here to stay and should be recognized. A tacit understanding on the future of the DPRK and an easing of pressure on the country should be effected... This new approach should be seriously presented to North Korea by a communication at the highest level, without the demand for immediate 'tit for tat'. Only after doing that could new arrangements for security on the Korean peninsula be discussed, with demilitarization and denuclearization remaining a vital but distant goal."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-038:
A New U.S. Policy toward Korea: Korean American Recommendations for Real Change

John H. Kim, a Korean American attorney who served in the U.S. Army in South Korea, and Indong Oh, a Korean American Medical Doctor and co-chair of the June 15th Korean American Committee for Peace and Reunification of Korea, write, "As a candidate who got elected on a campaign promise of "change," President Obama has a unique mandate and opportunity to shape a new U.S. policy toward Korea, including ending the long, costly Korean War finally and normalizing our relations with North Korea. However, it is not clear whether he recognizes the golden opportunity to bring a real change to the old, misguided U.S. policy toward Korea."

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PFO 09-037:
The ICNND and Japanese Civil Society

Kawasaki Akira, Peace Boat Executive Committee member and ICNND NGO Advisor, writes, "There are several evident tasks for Japanese civil society in relation to its upcoming engagement with the ICNND. Firstly... civil society efforts to ensure the participation of Diet members and key party policy-makers as part of its engagement with the ICNND will be key... The second task is to utilise ICNND debates as the first step towards a reexamination of Japan's nuclear disarmament policy in the leadup to the 2010 NPT Review Conference... The third task is... [that] civil society engagement with the ICNND must not be limited to just Japan, but also spread to Korea, China, and the whole of Northeast Asia."

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PFO 09-036:
Calling the Bluff or Showing Respect? Short Term Propaganda Victories and Long Term Strategic Objectives

Rudiger Frank, Chair of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, writes, "If we want to discourage the DPRK from reprocessing more fuel rods, from further refining their ICMBs and from developing a functioning nuclear warhead, we should stop telling them that all their efforts so far are not enough. By ridiculing these attempts, we win a small propaganda victory but also demonstrate to Pyongyang that they must work harder on these issues."

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PFO 09-034:
Old Ideas and New Diplomats: a Fresh Beginning in Northeast Asia?

James Goodby, former U.S. Ambassador to Finland and a Research Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, and Markku Heiskanen, Senior Fellow at the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies (NIAS) in Copenhagen, write, "It is clear is that only a comprehensive approach to the security problems of Northeast Asia will really get at the basic issues... By expressing a willingness to negotiate other mili­tary, political and economic issues together with the nuclear issue, the U.S. can significantly improve the political conditions for the negotiations."

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PFO 09-033:
Sanctions Will Have No Effect on North Korea

Andrei Lankov, Associate Professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, writes, "There is no alternative to negotiations with Mr Kim's clique. But Pyongyang dictators should be taught that provocations do not pay (or, at least, do not pay handsomely and immediately). This is especially important now, when Mr Obama’s administration has its first encounter with North Korean brinkmanship."

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PFO 09-032:
The North Korean Long-Range Missile Test-Launch of April, 2009: Results and Implications

Bruce E. Bechtol, Professor of International Relations at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College, writes, "Iran is North Korea's oldest and most profitable purchaser of ballistic missiles and ballistic missile technology… any missile test by North Korea should be assessed not only for its potential should a missile be launched from the North Korean landmass, but what it would mean if such a missile was launched from the Middle East – and who it would threaten."

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PFO 09-031:
Japan’s MSDF Somalia Dispatch: Targeting Pirates or Pirating a Constitutional Reinterpretation?

Sourabh Gupta, Senior Research Associate at Samuels International Associates, Inc., writes, "with each successive adjustment of the legal framework of Japan's security policy, an even greater separation has tended to set in between the original Article 9 aspiration of a force posture that is non-coercive and built around minimal use of force in defense of exclusively individual self-defense ends, and its actual practice on the ground."

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PFO 09-030:
Do Not Let the Rocket Launch Block North Korean Denuclearazition

Hui Zhang, Research Associate in the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, writes, "From China's perspective, the first step should be taken by the side with the least to lose. This is not North Korea... Washington should take the first step that will eventually lead to North Korean denuclearisation."

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PFO 09-029:
Taboo in Japan: Can Japan Think Strategically about North Korea?

Amii Abe, Visiting Fellow at the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, writes, "it is simply counterproductive to constantly criticize North Korea and shout demands at them. That is not the way to honestly engage a negotiating partner - even a dishonest one. More importantly, it fails to serve Japan's legitimate national interests."

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PFO 09-028:
Reading North Korea Right

Stephen Noerper, Senior Fellow at the EastWest Institute and a Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "A Chinese adage suggests that a 'cornered dog bites.' President Obama and the international community should signal that we are not simply responding to a crisis or 'managing' the North Korean problem. It is time to address and, where possible, eliminate problem areas with North Korea-while maintaining a 'stern and unified' stance on the core issues."

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PFO 09-026:
Not an Impeccable Argument

Mark J. Valencia, a maritime policy analyst based in Kaneohe, Hawaii, writes, "US government arguments and immediate follow up actions regarding the incident seem to constitute a 'might makes right' approach that only increases the damage being done to the US image in Asia. Real change is needed in US maritime diplomacy in Asia and elsewhere."

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PFO 09-025:
DPRK Trip Report February 24-28th, 2009

Paul Carroll, Program Director at the Ploughshares Fund, writes, "Depending on how the U.S. responds to any DPRK action, as well as our partners in the region, we may be in for rough stretch of road for some time. The alternative could be that if the responses are creative and bold, we may just be able to snatch some victory from the jaws of defeat and make some progress toward the goals of denuclearizing the peninsula and transforming the regional security situation."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-023:
The Role of the Military in the Fall of the Ceausescu Regime and The Possible Relevance for a Post-Kim Jong-il Transition in North Korea

Greg Scarlatoiu, Director of Public Affairs and Business Issues of the Korea Economic Institute, writes, "Dissent at the top or within the military ranks may seem unlikely for as long as Kim Jong-il is in power, given the authority he seems to wield, in particular after the establishment of the military first policy after his father's death. However, previous reports of a couple of failed attempted coups in the early to mid-1990s indicate that the North Korean military has not always thought favorably of hereditary succession. In a post-Kim Jong-il scenario, developments may unravel in a way reminiscent of Romania 1989."

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PFO 09-022:
Can We Reach a Nuclear Deal with North Korea?

Peter M. Beck, is a Professor at American University in Washington, D.C. and Ewha Womans University in Seoul, writes, "Working closely with Seoul, Washington must make an irresistible offer – normalization, completion of the two light water reactors scrapped by Bush and economic assistance. A 'shotgun wedding' may just be the most effective way of testing the North's intentions. However, there's one catch. We must be prepared for a possible rejection by the North. In which case, we must be prepared to use the shotgun."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-021:
North Korea Watches Washington

Tong Kim, Adjunct professor at SAIS, a research professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations, and a visiting professor of the Graduate University of North Korean Studies, writes, "As the North Koreans rewrite their talking points for future meetings, it is important for them to refrain from creating new problems either by launching a missile or even a satellite at this point or by making new unreasonable demands. Now the ball is back in Pyongyang's court to join international efforts to move the denuclearization process forward, and to seek its own interest of security assurance and economic development."

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PFO 09-020:
Tempting the Dragon

Mark J. Valencia, Visiting Senior Fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia (MIMA), writes, "the real issue of course is China's expanding blue water navy and its major submarine base on Hainan. Obviously it wants to protect its 'secrets' in the area including the activities and capabilities of its submarines and the morphology of the sea bottom. And just as intently, the US wants to know as much as it can about China's submarine capabilities and the area it may one day need to do battle in. Thus such incidents are likely to be repeated and become more dangerous and they do not pertain to China and the US alone."

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Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-019:
EU: On the Bench in Pyongyang

Axel Berkofsky, Adjunct Professor at the University Milan and Advisor on Asian Affairs at the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels, writes, "Sitting quietly on the sidelines of the process of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, the EU has never been invited or made any clear efforts to become actively involved in the six-party North Korea nuclear talks. And while the US, Japan, South Korea, China and, of course, North Korea, call all the shots, Brussels waits for the right moment to step in."

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Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-018:
Reinforcing American Extended Deterrence for Japan: An Essential Step for Nuclear Disarmament

Yukio Satoh, Former President of the Japan Institute of International Affairs and Permanent Representative of Japan to the United Nations from October 1998 till August 2002, writes, "The time has come for the governments of Japan and the United States to articulate better the shared concept of extended deterrence, nuclear or otherwise, in order to assure the Japanese that deterrence will continue to function under changing strategic circumstances and with technological developments."

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PFO 09-017:
What Obama Should Offer North Korea

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council, writes, "Pyongyang's basic stance is that as long as Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul remain adversaries, it feels threatened and will acquire nuclear weapons and missiles to counter that threat. But, it says, if Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo move toward reconciliation, it will get rid of these weapons. Whether North Korea means what it says isn't certain, but the only way to test it is to try to build mutual trust over time by faithfully carrying out a series of reciprocal steps that starts now."

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PFO 09-016:
The Chinese Economic Stimulus Package and its Impact on Environmental Protection Organizations

This article by Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, and Zhao Yusi, Project Assistant of NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, summaries several articles on the impact of China's economic stimulus package on environmental protection organizations. The report concludes, "Obviously this investment plan will build the confidence of civil society environmental protection organizations... In China today civil society organizations are trying to both expand the role of environmental protection and provide rational guidance and the smart exchange of ideas to the public."

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PFO 09-015:
Living With a Nuclear North Korea

Selig S. Harrison, Director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy and author of Korean Endgame, writes, "Pyongyang is ready to rule out the development of additional nuclear weapons in future negotiations, but when, and whether, it will give up its existing arsenal depends on how relations with Washington evolve... Faced with this new hard line, the United States should choose between two approaches, benign neglect and limiting the North's arsenal to four or five weapons."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-014:
How Far Will the Seoul-Pyongyang Aggravation Go?

Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, writes, "there are grounds to believe that Seoul has opted for a DPRK strategy that in a number of basic features repeats the 'regime change' policy towards North Korea that was pursued in the first six years of George W. Bush administration."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-012:
The Somalia Multilateral Anti- Piracy Approach: Some Caveats

Mark J. Valencia, Visiting Senior Fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia (MIMA), and Nazery Khalid, Senior Fellow at MIMA, write, "Rather than extend the Somali intervention 'lessons' to Southeast Asia, the international community should extend to the GOA and Somalian waters the lessons from Southeast Asia, i.e. assistance to enhance political and social stability, economic development, and anti-piracy technology and training with the goal of indigenous control of the anti-piracy response."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-011:
The DPRK-US Nuclear Game in the Obama Era

Shen Dingli, Executive Dean of Institute of International Studies and Director, Center for American Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, writes, "As the US would not accept the DPRK demand to unify the peninsula on its terms and, as the US still perceives political and military utility of its own nuclear weapons, it is unrealistic to expect North Korea to disarm its nuclear weapons program in the first place, no matter which American president is in power."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-010:
Ending Somalian Piracy: Pitfalls and Possibilities of Australian Naval Intervention and Long-Term Human Security Policy Initiatives

Carolin Liss, a Post-doctoral Research Fellow at the Asia Research Centre at Murdoch University, writes, "patrolling pirate infested waters will not address the underlying root causes of modern day piracy, which include illegal and over-fishing, lax (international) maritime regulations, ineffective and corrupt government forces, armed conflict and widespread poverty... It is therefore important for Australia, and other countries already involved in combating Somali piracy, to understand that the current international patrols have to be seen as a first step in a longer process."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-009:
No More Victims to the Devil of America's Own Creating

Haksoon Paik, is a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, an independent think tank devoted to the study of national strategies of Korea, writes, "The Obama administration should adopt a new pragmatic approach... if it wants to solve the North Korean nuclear issue. There's no other way but to encourage and accommodate North Korea's willingness to cooperate, getting out of a vicious circle of distrust, as a realistic way to solve key pending issues with North Korea."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-008:
Obama Will Be Challenged by North Korea

Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, writes, "As President Obama contemplates the Sisyphean task of making real progress in North Korean denuclearization, he should first insist that North Korea comply with its existing six-party talks agreements. These include: issuing a data declaration addressing its uranium weapons program and proliferation activities; disabling all nuclear facilities; and accepting a verification protocol that meets international standards."

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PFO 09-007:
A DPRK 'Shangri-la' Powered by Solar Electricity

Victor Hsu, National Director of World Vision International's program in the DPRK, describes how the inclusion of solar energy has been integral to the successful collaboration between World Vision International and the DPRK in a village in Yongtan County.

Go to the report.

PFO 09-005:
North Korea: 20 Years of Solitude

John Delury, Director of the China Boom Project and Associate Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society, writes, "The solution to the myriad problems created by North Korea's long isolation is, quite simply, to end the isolation. The antidote to North Korea’s evasive hostility, always linked to a demand for "face," is full engagement."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-004:
Obama's Options on North Korea

Tong Kim, a visiting professor at the Graduate University of North Korean Studies, and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), notes recommendations for the Obama administration in dealing with the DPRK including that it, "tell the North Korean leadership that a meeting with President Obama is possible when the United States and its allies are convinced that the North truly intends to abandon its nuclear weapons even before complete denuclearization. To prove its intentions, the North must take positive but irreversible steps."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 09-003:
S. Korea Should Cooperate with U.S. on N.K.

Cheon Seongwhun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), writes, "the Obama administration is likely to ask for stronger verification measures than what was agreed during the Bush administration... The new administration will regard material sampling as an indispensable condition for effective verification, and even push for inspections on undeclared facilities, the nuclear testing site, and explosive testing facilities which were practically exempted from verification under the current agreement."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-002:
Five Characteristics of the Development of Chinese Non-Profit Organizations

Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, and Zhao Yusi, Project Assistant of NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, write, "governmental reform, the development of the market economy, the differentiation of social stratum and interest patterns, the speeding up of public participation and political democracy, as well as the rapid strides in communications using the Internet and mobile devises, have increased the needs of citizens for social services and their ability to form voluntary associations. Under these conditions non-profit organizations in China are becoming more active and developing vigorously."

Go to the report.

PFO 09-001:
The Lee Myung-bak Government's Policy Toward the DPRK after Barack Obama's Inauguration

Kim Yeoncheol, Director of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute (http://koreahana.net/sub05_01_1.htm), writes, "If the government misses the time to engage the North, it will only be more time consuming and expensive to compensate later... The government should think about its long term future… The tension in the inter-Korean relationship is becoming more intense. If we don't act now there will be only more regret for the wasted time and lost opportunities in the future."

Go to the report.


The Nautilus Policy Forum Online is intended to provide expert analysis of contemporary issues in Northeast Asia, and an opportunity to participate in discussion of the analysis. As always, Nautilus invites your responses to this report.

Copyright (c) 2001 Nautilus of America/The Nautilus Institute