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Nautilus Institute's Policy Forum Online's focus is on the timely publication of expert analysis and op-ed style pieces on the foremost of security-related issues to Northeast Asia. Its mission is to facilitate a multilateral flow of information among an international network of policy-makers, analysts, scholars, media, and readers. Policy Forum essays are typically from a wide range of expertise, political orientations, as well as geographic regions and seeks to present readers with opinions and analysis by experts on the issues as well as alternative voices not typically presented or heard. Feedback, comments, responses from Policy Forum readers are highly encouraged.

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PFO 08-100:
Pyongyang University of Science & Technology (PUST)

Suk Hi Kim, Editor of North Korean Review (www.northkoreanreview.com), writes, "PUST is North Korea’s first institution of higher education founded, operated, and funded by associations and people outside the country... PUST plans to train talented young North Korean people in the fields of information and communication technology, industrial management, agriculture, food and life science, architecture, joinery and construction, and public health. The major challenge that faces the university is related to maintaining its financial resources."

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PFO 08-099:
The Daejeon Green Growth Forum: An Effort To Build A New Korean Economy From The Bottom Up

Liao Ran and Chen Ke, students at Solbridge International School of Business in Daejeon, Korea, write, "Although the ultimate impact of the Daejeon Green Growth Forum's efforts has yet to be seen, it is a tribute to Korea's capacity for innovation that this environmental forum has come to play such a central role within less than a year of its establishment."

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PFO 08-098:
Challenges in Alliance Management between Washington and Seoul

Sun-won Park, Visiting Fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, writes, "Policy coordination between Washington and Seoul is essential in order to achieve the denuclearization of North Korea, diplomatic normalization between the U.S. and the DPRK, and the establishment of a peace arrangement through talks between the directly related parties. But the notion of policy coordination must not be used as a certain party’s justification for sabotaging cooperation with the new U.S. plan for the Korean peninsula."

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PFO 08-097:
China Civil Society Report: Opportunities for the Assessment of Civil Organizations in China

Deng Guosheng, Professor of School of Public Management and Policy at Tsinghua University, writes, "Surveys show that at present the Chinese people trust the government the most, followed by businesses, then civil society organizations... Currently Chinese civil society organizations seriously lack credibility, which hinders their development. Assessments may be one of the most important means to restore public confidence in civil organizations."

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PFO 08-096:
Big Brother is Watching: China's Intentions in the DPRK

Tim Savage, Deputy Director of the Seoul Office of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "China and South Korea cannot meet in a smoke-filled room and decide the fate of North Korea. But the more they can overcome their own mutual distrust, the less likely it becomes that whatever does happen in North Korea will lead to a broader regional crisis."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-095:
Telecommunications in North Korea: Has Orascom Made the Connection?

Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, writes, "If fully realized, the Orascom venture would represent a major foreign investment in the North Korean economy... and in the context of generally favorable trends in external relations, a successful outcome could have a favorable knock-on precedential effect with respect to future infrastructural deals."

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PFO 08-094:
China Civil Society Report: Chinese Civil Society Impacts on Urban Migration

Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, and Zhao Yusi, Project Assistant of NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, write, "Noting the tension between migrant workers and cities under the household registration system, civil society in China has worked to protect the basic rights of migrant workers and resolve the conflicts involved in their residence in cities to make the migrant population function more harmoniously during China's urbanization process."

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PFO 08-093:
China's Economic Reforms Pushed by Civil Society

Yongsheng Zhang, contributor to the East Asia Forum, writes "the most essential element for good economic performance is preventing governmental opportunism. To achieve this, the government needs to be limited by rule of law and civil society. A better institution for long-term economic prosperity can thus gradually evolve in a civil society."

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PFO 08-092:
Obama and North Korea: The Road Ahead

Peter M. Beck, Professor at American University in Washington, D.C. and Yonsei University in Seoul, notes "several suggestions that would greatly increase the chances of successful negotiations" with the DPRK including insisting "that any deal reached between Pyongyang and Washington incorporates improved North-South relations... If the North follows through with its threat to close border crossings between the two Koreas, it would completely undo the rapprochement of the past decade. Washington should make it clear that this is unacceptable."

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Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 08-091:
Bush=Obama=Lee Myungbak? Eccentric Syllogism!

Wooksik Cheong, representative of Peace Network (www.peacekorea.org), writes, "Obama's and Bush's North Korean policies are very similar but have important differences. Lee's and Bush's North Korean polices differed greatly and did not go well together. Then, there should be much greater difference in Obama's and Lee's North Korea policies. Then what should be the future of the ROK-US alliance and cooperation on dealing with North Korean nuclear issues?"

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PFO 08-090:
The North Korean Conundrum: Change You Can Believe In or Policy Status Quo?

John Feffer, the co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, writes, "We can't simply buy North Korea's nuclear weapons program, because it is inextricably connected to the country's pride and the leadership's survival. But if the United States endorses economic engagement with North Korea, the country and the leadership will, sooner or later, be able to uncouple pride and regime stability from the atom."

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PFO 08-089:
Setting a New Course with North Korea

Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, writes, "Troubling, however, is a growing sense that Pyongyang's obstructionist antics are not merely negotiating ploys but are instead designed to achieve international acquiescence to North Korea as a nuclear power. If that is the case, then it is prudent to begin contingency planning, including identifying financial sanctions that could be imposed against those companies and nations in violation of U.N. Resolution 1718."

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PFO 08-088:
Neo-Cons in Pyongyang

Leonid Petrov, Research Associate at the Australian National University, writes, "As for North Korea's erratic behaviour in rejecting the nuclear sampling and verification process, again it is the conservative mood that dominates today's Pyongyang… Every time when Washington reneged on its promises given at the Six Party Talks it would undermine the power of the liberal group in Pyongyang."

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PFO 08-087:
Japan Needs to Talk About What It Will Do for Itself

Yukio Okamoto, President of Okamoto Associates, Inc. and a former Special Advisor to two prime ministers, writes, "Rather than further pledges of integration, I believe that advisors to the new American president would be more impressed with Japan's demonstrating a greater self-reliance and autonomy in security affairs."

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PFO 08-086:
Setting a New Course with North Korea

K.A. Namkung, Foreign Policy Adviser to New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, and Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council, write, "getting North Korea to reverse course now will not be easy, but a comprehensive approach is needed if the next administration is to give Pyongyang more of a stake in keeping deals. It also would give Washington its first real leverage: U.S. steps could be withheld if - and only if - Pyongyang does not follow through on its commitments."

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PFO 08-085:
Japan-India Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation: Groping Towards an Asia-wide Security Architecture

Sourabh Gupta, Senior Research Associate at Samuels International Associates, Inc., writes, "it remains to be seen whether an economically-anemic Japan-India bilateral partnership with a top-heavy security component (albeit, at present, more in intent than content) will trump either country's economically more densely-linked but strategically more circumspect relationship with China."

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PFO 08-084:
Deterioration of Inter-Korean Relationship

Tong Kim, Research Professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS, writes, "Since President Lee took office, Pyongyang has been getting mixed signals from Seoul between engagement and confrontation, as it did from the Bush administration during its first six years between negotiation and regime change... Nobody can predict the timing or the likelihood of a demise of North Korea. That's why it is important to resume dialogue and avoid a costly consequence political, economic and military from confrontation."

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PFO 08-083:
Moral Realism Boomerang: Eight Months into the Lee Administration's North Korean Policy

Bo-hyuk Suh, Research Fellow at the Korea National Strategy Institute in Seoul, writes, "it is time inter-Korean relations should change, which would begin by respecting the agreement reached at the South-North summit meeting... The South Korean government should offer North Korea an unconditional dialogue to discuss inter-Korean cooperation, including the implementation of the October 4 Declaration."

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PFO 08-082:
China Civil Society Report: An Overview of Social Work with the Disabled in China

Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, and Zhao Yusi, Project Assistant of NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, write, At present, China’s disabled people's organizations face some challenges. First there are human resource issues... Second there is a registration problem for these organizations… Additionally there are other problems, such as a limited impact on public opinion, lack of publicity, insufficient funds, challenges in building the organization, and so on."

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PFO 08-081:
The Question President Bush Needs to Answer: Do You Really Believe Kim Jong-Il Will Give up His Nuclear Weapons?

Cheon Seongwhun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), writes, "A laudable legacy that President Bush could leave for us may be to clarify all the confusion and suspicion about the Kim Jong-il regime’s nuclear intentions and by doing so, remove a root cause of policy struggle in the United States, South Korea, China, and others."

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PFO 08-080:
Has the Next Great Leader of North Korea Been Announced?

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society and Vice Director of the East Asian Institute at the University of Vienna, writes, "This time, we could see the Party taking over the role of a church, safeguarding ideology and the leadership of the two "Eternal" leaders, forming or organizing the collective leadership that seems to be the only logical step, and appointing a leader who will not be Great but visible. The recent homage to the Party's monument could be the first step in the process of announcing this solution; the next Great Leader of North Korea could be Mother Party."

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Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 08-079:
The Facts and Fables of a Unified Korea

Andrei Lankov, Associate Professor in Kookmin University, Seoul, and adjunct research fellow at the Research School of Pacifica and Asian Studies, Australian National University, write, "Despite all the grave doubts, people will not dare to openly say that they do not want to share the state with what they perceive as impoverished and under-educated Northerners. Nonetheless, one thing is clear: the enthusiasm about unification is waning, and sooner or later this quiet transformation of the public mind may have political effects."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-078:
Delisting North Korea

Victor Cha, Director of Asian studies at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at the Pacific Council, writes, "if North Korea keeps its word, John McCain or Barack Obama should inherit a situation in which U.S. and international nuclear experts are on the ground in North Korea learning more about Kim Jong Il's nuclear secrets while slowly disabling and degrading his nuclear capabilities."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-076:
After Kim Jong-il

Peter M. Beck, Professor at American University in Washington, D.C., writes, "there is a much greater likelihood that the North will come to resemble Burma rather than South Korea or China. A collective leadership system dominated by the military will likely emerge. However, it could be months or even years before the North's elites sort out who is in and who is out of the new ruling junta. The military will clearly be in the driver’s seat. The only question is whether it will use a member of the Kim Royal Family as a hood ornament."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-075:
The Future of Political Leadership in North Korea

Chung-in Moon, professor of political science at Yonsei University in Seoul and special delegate to both inter-Korean summits, writes, "Rather than risking all of the negotiating gains made with North Korea thus far by provocative speculation, the international community should resume the calm, prudent and incremental approach it has more recently adopted in engaging the North, above all, by sustaining the Six Party Talks. Reducing uncertainty and enhancing stability in North Korea will be more rewarding than wishful thinking about its future implosion which can lead to serious calamities on the Korean peninsula and in the region as a whole."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-074:
Nothing Succeeds Like Succession?

Scott Thomas Bruce, Director of US Operations at the Nautilus Institute in San Francisco which is affiliated with the USF Center for the Pacific Rim, writes, "Removing North Korea from the list of terror sponsoring nations no longer offers a way forward... The Bush Administration could send one or both of George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter to meet with Kim Jong Il and put together the icebreaker... It would also make the overture bipartisan in US presidential politics, thereby signaling the gravity with which the US views the situation in the DPRK. Incidentally, it would also force the DPRK leadership to produce Kim Jong Il or admit that he is in bad shape."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-073:
Kim Jong-il on Spotlight

Tong Kim, Research Professor with Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS, writes, "One thing that the experience of the reports on Kim's health issue reminds us is the realization of how little we know about North Korea's leadership. The past decade of engaging the North has enabled the South to learn more about North Koreans. In this context, it is more imperative now to resume inter-Korean dialogue."

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PFO 08-072:
The Future of Political Leadership in North Korea

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes, "There is always the possibility that a power-hungry family clan of one of Kim Jong-il's wives, or of another line in the family, or an ambitious leader from the military will try to grab power without considering the long-term consequences for political stability in North Korea... However, collective leadership is the most likely, the most logical option for North Korea's political future, simply because dynastic succession will not work."

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PFO 08-071:
The Way We Should Deal with North Korea

Haksoon Paik, North Korea specialist at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, an independent think tank devoted to the study of national strategy of Korea, writes, "Complete denuclearization of North Korea will come only with full-fledged trust. North Koreans appear to regard the U.S. demand for a "complete" verification mechanism as a trap set up by the hardliners in Washington D.C. to undermine not only the hitherto gained achievements in the nuclear negotiations, but also the North Korean regime itself."

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PFO 08-070:
Preparing for Regime Change in North Korea: The Need for International Cooperation

Steve Noerper, Senior Fellow, Asia Pacific and Director, worldwide issue networks, for the EastWest Institute, writes, "These challenges require considerable international coordination - a growth of efforts beyond the current denuclearization dialogue. The mandate of the Six-Party talks could be expanded to include other security and development questions. Participation in the talks could also be expanded to include contributors like Mongolia, Canada and Australia, and prove more effective by forming mini-laterals - groupings of two or three concerned nations - to tackle specific problem areas."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-069:
Australia and the DPRK: The Sixty Years of Relationship

Leonid A. Petrov, Research Associate at the Australian National University, writes, "Australia's DPRK policy has for too long been copying the US policy toward North Korea and has finally reached the same dead end. Driven to this by the previous government, it now needs urgent attention and adjustment. If neglected, Australia risks loosing many lucrative opportunities still available for our exporters and investors."

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PFO 08-068:
The Maritime Self-Defence Force Mission in the Indian Ocean: Afghanistan, NATO and Japan?s Political Impasse

Richard Tanter, Director of the Australia office of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "The twin sources of Japanese remilitarisation in the Heisei era - US pressure and the preferences of those streams of elite Japanese political and bureaucratic opinion favouring nationalist and great power solutions to foreign policy problems - remain ascendant, despite occasional blockages. One of those blockages has led to the need to try to redefine the Indian Ocean MSDF mission in terms of an anti-piracy initiative... this is clearly a rushed, ill-conceived policy, the real aims of which are to find new justifications for continuing the expansion of the most advanced naval force in Northeast Asia, and along the way, increasing the resources of the nationalist whaling agenda."

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PFO 08-067:
Denuclearization of the DPRK­A Role for the United Nations?

Anne Wu, an Associate with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, writes, "A strengthened 'good offices' role for the UN secretary-general that couples the message of denuclearization with a humane, well-coordinated package of proposals that address the security, economic, energy, and humanitarian concerns of the DPRK could effectively serve to advance the six-party talks toward a successful conclusion."

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PFO 08-066:
Visiting the Kaesong Industrial Complex

Suk Hi Kim, Editor of North Korean Review (www.northkoreanreview.com), writes, "the solution of information issues, such as communication, customs clearance, and passage for KIC investors, largely depends on North Korea. The solution of these two key issues will not only make KIC investors more competitive, but it will also alleviate tensions on the Korean peninsula as well as spurring the economic growth of the two countries."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-065:
China Civil Society Report: Mass Incidents in China

Yu Jianrong, Research Professor of Institute of Rural Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Yu Debao, Doctoral Student at Peking University, write, "In a time with so much social conflict, little contradictions can trigger mass unrest, affecting the whole society. If such incidents cannot be solved properly, both society and the whole country will pay a heavy price."

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PFO 08-064:
President Lee Myongbak's Learning Curve

Mikyoung Kim, Assistant Professor at Hiroshima City University - Hiroshima Peace Institute, writes, Mr. Lee leaves an impression that he rushed to declare himself different from his predecessor by ingratiating himself to our allies, and selling out Korea in the process. It is dangerous to reveal all your cards at once, given the precarious nature of international collaboration.

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PFO 08-063:
How A Mock Trial Could Turn Victory into Defeat on North Koreas Nuclear Arms

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project in New York and author of Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, writes, Diplomatic give-and-take with North Korea is yielding payoffs for American and regional security. Turning the talks into a mock trial would only be a waste of time.

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 08-062:
Vietnam's Model for North Korea

Michael E. O'Hanlon, Senior Foreign Policy Fellow at the Brookings Institution, writes, "Our real carrots are not taking North Korea off terrorism and enemy watch lists; doing so provides little direct benefit to the reclusive regime. The carrots are aid, trade, investment and diplomatic contact. We need a strategy for how to offer these enticements to leaders in Pyongyang."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of this article here.

PFO 08-061:
Russia's 'Power Politics' and North Korea

Leonid Petrov, Research Associate at the Australian National University, writes, "In this light, Russian-Korean relations can be seen as based on a solid footing and replete with opportunities that can benefit each of them. The new administrations in the Kremlin and Seoul's "Blue House", together with the new generation of leaders in Pyongyang, can radically change the political climate in the region. A simple strengthening of economic relationships between the three countries will contribute to the peaceful solution of the "Korean nuclear problem" and prepare the basis for durable peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia."

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PFO 08-060:
Rocks of Contention: Dokdo/Liancourt/Takeshima

Mindy Kotler, director of Asia Policy Point (http://www.jiaponline.org), a Washington-based nonprofit, membership research center studying the US policy relationship in science, security, history, and global issues with Japan and East Asia, writes, "The U.S. alliances with both Japan and South Korea are important. However, the U.S. should not be asked to choose sides or to mediate. But neither should Washington continue its condescending attitude that this issue represents a mere emotional Asian distraction. These views are embedded in Japan's and Korea's politic. At some point a mere call for calm may not be enough."

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PFO 08-059:
Lee Outflanked

Aidan Foster-Carter, honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University, England, writes, "Far from being in sync with U.S. policy, at this juncture, a North-South spat is no help to Washington. Rather it risked upsetting the applecart, just when Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill was trying to clinch the next stage of the long drawn out - five years, and counting - 6PT process."

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PFO 08-057:
The South China Sea Hydra

Mark Valencia, a Maritime Policy Analyst and a Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "The South China Sea situation deserves renewed attention by ASEAN and perhaps the ARF. Moving forward to an agreement on a legally binding Code of Conduct for the South China Sea has become urgent."

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PFO 08-056:
Chinese Civil Society After the 512 Earthquake

Jia Xijin, Associate Professor at the NGO Research Center at Tsinghua University, writes, "NGOs in China face capacity-building problems such as how to cooperate to avoid repeated work, how to avoid volunteers themselves turning into aid targets, how to maintain social credibility, etc. Nevertheless, the government needs to make efforts to help NGOs in opening up, cooperating and securing fair treatment to improve the institutional environment of NGO's and promote social well-being."

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PFO 08-055:
Olympic Security Collaboration

Drew Thompson, Director of China Studies and a Starr senior fellow at the Nixon Center, writes, "However, a successfully managed Olympics will ensure China's continued willingness to open its markets to the outside world and follow a progressive, constructive foreign policy. Even though some U.S. experts engaging the Chinese may feel that the level of collaboration with Chinese counterparts does not compare favorably with previous event organizers, there are no indications that the Beijing Games will not be safe. A positive Beijing Games outcome would ultimately benefit all global citizens in keeping with the Olympic spirit."

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PFO 08-054:
Simpleminded or Farsighted? - The US' handling of North Korea

Masahiro Matsumura, Professor of International Politics at St. Andrew's University (Momoyama Gakuin Daigaku) in Osaka, writes, "At this moment, Washington should continue to block this aid as a matter of policy discretion through the Boards of Governors and the Executive Boards, wherein Tokyo also possesses a significant voting power to support Washington. Pyongyang will then be subjected to further economic penetration by China, involving the deepening of China's actual economic colonization. Under these parameters, Pyongyang would be constrained to negotiate sincerely with Washington and Tokyo."

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PFO 08-053:
Securing the Sulu Sea

Mark J. Valencia, a Maritime Policy Analyst and a Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "the littoral states of the Sulu Sea need to gain the "confidence" of the United States that they can - with capacity building and the right equipment - handle the problem themselves. The first steps would be to agree to co-ordinated patrols, 'hand-off' hot pursuit, and an 'eye in the sky' arrangement."

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PFO 08-052:
Denuclearization and Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula are Possible

Wooksik Cheong, representative of Peace Network Korea, writes, "Eventually, 'practically complete denuclearization' requires Bush's determination as much as Kim Jong-il's. Particularly, a DPRK-U.S. Summit is essential for a final agreement between the two nations. The most practical and symbolic way to show the end of hostile relations between the U.S. and DPRK is to create a scene of a firm handshake between Bush and Kim."

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PFO 08-051:
Caution Against Overestimating Pyongyang's Move

Andrei Lankov, an Associate Professor at Kookmin University, Seoul, and Adjunct Research Fellow at the Research School of Pacifica and Asian Studies, Australian National University, writes, "The efforts of the negotiators are not likely to produce the ideal outcome, that is, complete and verifiable destruction of all North Korean nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, it is possible to achieve the compromise, which will make the further increase of the North Korean nuclear arsenal difficult."

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PFO 08-050:
North Korea: Presidential Action on State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) and the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA)

The U.S. Department of State released this fact sheet on the disablement of the Yongbyon reactor, the lifting of the Trading with the Enemy Act with respect to the DPRK and intent to the rescind the DPRK's designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.

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PFO 08-049:
North Korea's Nuclear Declaration: What to Expect

Ralph Cossa, President of the Pacific Forum CSIS, writes, "Some have argued that it would make more sense to wait until the list is delivered and verified before restrictions are lifted, and they are probably right. Unfortunately, that was not what Washington promised. If we have learned nothing else about North Korea we should know one thing by now: While Pyongyang might not be too good at living up to its own promises, it will not budge an inch if it perceives that others are not living up to theirs."

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PFO 08-048:
North Korean Denuclearization: Beyond Phase II Disablement

Tong Kim, former senior interpreter at the U.S. State Department and now a visiting professor with the Graduate University of North Korean Studies, a research professor with Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University SAIS, writes, "Final denuclearization would require the normalization of relations between the United States and the DPRK... Any way one looks at the prospects of the six party process, it clearly has a long way to go yet with many difficult problems to surmount in the path."

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PFO 08-047:
Wenchuan as Eco-City

Emanuel Pastreich, Director of the Asia Institute at the SolBridge School of Business in Daejeon, South Korea and a senior fellow at the US-Japan-China Comparative Policy Research Institute (CPRI), and John Feffer, the co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, write, "In that spirit of compassion, let us rebuild Wenchuan, the victim of an act of nature, with an eye toward rebuilding all of our cities, the victims of our blind embrace of unsustainable growth."

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PFO 08-046:
We Have No Plan

Victor Cha, Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University, adjunct Senior Fellow at the Pacific Council for International Policy, and former director of Asian Affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, writes, "It would be completely irresponsible not to have a quiet discussion among concerned governments about how to deal with potential North Korean instability... it has to be done -- and done well -- before the next rumor proves to be true."

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PFO 08-045:
Koreas Not Eye-to-Eye on Vision 3000

Andrei Lankov, an Associate Professor at Kookmin University, Seoul, and Adjunct Research Fellow at the Research School of Pacifica and Asian Studies, Australian National University, writes, "sooner or later Lee Myong-bak and his advisers will have to reconsider the "Northern question" and come out with a strategy that has a chance to work... Quite likely, their answer will be some kind of engagement policy, in other words, a re-worked and re-branded version of the Sunshine Policy."

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PFO 08-044:
Unsustainable Inequities: Saving the Japan-U.S. Alliance from Drift

Tobias Harris, a freelance journalist and author of Observing Japan, a blog that focuses on Japanese politics and East Asian international relations, and Douglas Turner, Founder and CEO of DW Turner, Inc, write, "The United States... must transform its thinking on the alliance. The framework wherein the United States delegates more tasks to Japan without giving Japan a greater share in determining the purpose of the alliance will ensure mounting Japanese resentment that will ultimately explode in a crisis."

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PFO 08-043:
Put the Proliferation Security Initiative Under the UN

Mark J. Valencia, a Maritime Policy Analyst and a Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "If PSI effectiveness is not dramatically improved, WMD and related materials will continue to fall into the 'wrong' hands... It is time to move beyond the 'loose arrangement' dominated by the United States. Gains must be consolidated and legitimacy enhanced, thus attracting broader and more robust PSI participation. This could be achieved by providing PSI with a concrete structure under UN auspices."

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PFO 08-042:
North Korea on the Precipice of Famine

Stephan Haggard, Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor of Korea-Pacific Studies and Director of the Korea-Pacific Program (KPP) at the University of California, San Diego School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Erik Weeks, a research assistant at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, write, "Opening North Korea, through whatever channels possible, is the ultimate route toward a more prosperous future; if this crisis contributes to that process, it would constitute the only silver lining we can see at the moment to what is otherwise yet another sad chapter in the history of the North Korean people."

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PFO 08-041:
An Outbreak of 'Warm Spring': The Hu-Fukuda Summit Assessed

Sourabh Gupta, Senior Research Associate at Samuels International Associates, Inc., writes, "With Beijing having internalized the imperative for a changed tone of voice with which it speaks to the Japanese and with nationalist revisionism perhaps having crested in Tokyo... the portents, going forward, this time around however seem a lot better."

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PFO 08-040:
The Right Path With N. Korea

Siegfried S. Hecker, Professor at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, and William J. Perry, Secretary of Defense from 1994 through 1997, write, "in its remaining months, the Bush administration should focus on limiting North Korea's nuclear capabilities by concluding the elimination of plutonium production. If it can also get answers on the Syrian operation and resolve the question of uranium enrichment, it will put the next administration in a stronger position to finally end the nuclear threat from North Korea."

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PFO 08-038:
Nuclear Matters in North Korea: Building a Multilateral Response for Future Stability in Northeast Asia

James L. Schoff, Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies at IFPA, Charles M. Perry, Vice President and Director of Studies at IFPA, and Jacquelyn K. Davis, Executive Vice President of IFPA, write, "Building a multilateral response for future stability in East Asia is not a way for the United States, or China, or any other country to abdicate responsibility for North Korea's nuclear challenge. In fact, it is the growing convergence of interests amongst the countries involved (particularly between China and the United States) to strengthen regional and global non-proliferation norms that could potentially bind the nations of Northeast Asia closer together on security issues, rather than divide them into two separate camps."

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PFO 08-037:
Will Australia help North Korea?

Leonid A. Petrov, Research Associate in the Division of Pacific and Asian History at Australian National University, writes, "Differences in political views and economic systems must not divide but should rather enhance the value of partnership and help complement each other's strengths. By intensifying diplomatic ties, expanding economic cooperation and providing humanitarian aid both countries can make a significant contribution to the peaceful resolution of the Korean nuclear problem and prepare the basis for durable peace and prosperity in the region."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-036:
North Korea Trip Report

This trip report by Keith Luse, Senior Professional Staff Member in the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, notes discussions with DPRK officials over the countries nuclear program. The report includes the comment, "One million tons of HFO was committed, with one-half to be delivered in-kind. Five hundred thousand tons of HFO (in equivalent), should have been delivered in equipment and materials. Only two hundred thousand tons of HFO has been delivered so far. We are adjusting the speed of disablement to the speed of the five parties".

Go to the report.

PFO 08-035:
Report of Visit to the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea (DPRK)

Siegfried S. Hecker, Professor at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, writes, "the most important risk-reduction actions now are to stop the production of more plutonium and to stop export of existing plutonium and nuclear technologies. The current situation puts us within reach of stopping plutonium production for the foreseeable future. The five parties should do everything in their power to get the DPRK to finish the disablement expeditiously and to move on to dismantlement."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-034:
Middle Powers and Korean Normalization: An Australian Perspective Revisited

Jeffrey Robertson, Senior Researcher in Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security at the Australian Parliamentary Library, writes, "What this study demonstrates above all, is the need to capitalize on periods of relatively reduced security tension on the Korean peninsula During these periods of relative calm, stronger coordination devoted to building momentum in coalition building and ultimately garnering major power support would allow the limited resources of middle powers to be dedicated to an objective that lends itself as both practical and achievable."

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PFO 08-033:
U.S.-ROK Civil Society Ties: Dynamics and Prospects in a Post-Alliance World

Scott Snyder, Senior Associate in the International Relations program of The Asia Foundation and Pacific Forum CSIS, writes, "the existence or absence of a security alliance between the United States and South Korea would probably not have a decisive impact on civil society interactions across all spheres; the end of the alliance (and more specifically the U.S. military presence in Korea) would actually remove a concern shared by South Korean NGOs working to bring greater transparency and accountability to the U.S.-ROK military relationship."

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PFO 08-032:
Socialist Neo-Conservatism in North Korea? A Return to Old Principles in the 2008 New Year Joint Editorial

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, writes, "In comparison with the 2007 issue, the return to old postures (socialism, Party, domestic resources) is the most striking difference. IT, standing at the core of the 2007 editorial, has not been mentioned in 2008; neither has the status as a nuclear power. Improving the standard of living is again an issue, but its coverage was less intense in 2008."

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PFO 08-030:
A Security and Peace Mechanism for Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension

Stephan Haggard, Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor of Korea-Pacific Studies and Director of the Korea-Pacific Program (KPP) at the University of California, San Diego School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, and Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, writes, "A primary, though not exclusive, objective of NEAPSM should be the integration of North Korea into the Asian and global economies. Such an opening is a prerequisite to the country's economic renewal and resolution of its chronic humanitarian problems. Deepened economic interdependence would also embed North Korea in relations that could reduce the likelihood of disruptive behavior."

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PFO 08-029:
Lee Myung-bak and the Future of Sino-South Korean Relations

Scott Snyder, Senior Associate with The Asia Foundation and Pacific Forum CSIS, writes, "One key test of whether or not this is a new starting point will be whether China can meet its diplomatic objectives by influencing South Korean government policies not only in the context of the Sino-South Korean bilateral relationship, but also whether China can cast its shadow to the east sufficiently that South Korean administrations are required to take into account China's preferences in formulating not only inter-Korean policy, but also South Korea's management of relations with Japan and the United States."

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PFO 08-028:
Pragmatism and North Korea Policy

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes, "As soon as the usual two strong years in office of the new administration in Seoul are over, the Blue House, facing renewed pressure from its voters, will have to return to the engagement policy anyway. On the balance sheet we will see nothing but a loss of time and of influence. Confidence, contacts, access that have been destroyed during this period will have to be rebuilt, if this is possible at all."

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PFO 08-027:
Dark Horse

The National Committee on North Korea published this newsletter which detailed how college students from the DPRK, with assistance from Syracuse University and The Korea Society, competed in an international computer programming competition. The report concludes, "Several lessons seem clear. First, at least in several areas involving science cooperation, the DPRK is quite willing and able to engage international standards. Second, their best students are able to compete effectively with top students world-wide. Third, sincere cooperation begets trust and more cooperation."

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PFO 08-026:
(Maybe) Denuclearizing North Korea

Axel Berkofsky, Adjunct Professor at the University Milan and Advisor on Asian Affairs at the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels, notes, "North Korea will not be 'decisive and to try to make a deal with Bush while he is a lame duck ultimately, the Six-Party talks will break down under a McCain presidency or be replaced by a new process under a Democratic administration.'"

Go to the report.

PFO 08-025:
President Lee Myung-bak's North Korea Policy: Denuclearization or Disengagement?

Leonid Petrov, Research Associate in the Division of Pacific and Asian History at Australian National University, writes, "During the last decade, the dynamics of inter-Korean cooperation have made unprecedented progress. It would be unforgivable to slow down this process only because someone may find a peaceful compromise excessively expensive. Let us not forget that this matter is about the future of the Korean people, and attempts to economize on the future of the people sooner or later leads to political bankruptcy."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-024:
The New York Philharmonic in North Korea. A New Page in US-DPRK Relations?

Karin J. Lee, Executive Director of the national Committee on North Korea, writes, "The concert itself did not resolve deeply held national security concerns on either side -nor should anyone expect a concert to have such an impact What may have changed, incrementally, is that a few words have been added to a common cultural vocabulary. Now each country has an additional image of the other country, a new cultural point of reference to add to the customary images of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Ultimately, exchanges such as these prepare the people in both countries to sustain the peace that we hope will be brokered by our respective governments."

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PFO 08-023:
North Korea Extends Its Freedom Overture

Katharine H.S. Moon, Professor in the Department of Political Science at Wellesley College and Associate Fellow at the Asia Society in New York, writes, "The US government has kept a long arm's distance from the musical overtures between Pyongyang and the Philharmonic, but it also has missed a unique opportunity to assert one of the best examples of its "soft power" not only to North Korea but to the rest of the world."

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PFO 08-022:
The Philippines' Spratly "Bungle": Blessing In Disguise?

Mark J. Valencia, Maritime Policy Analyst in Kaneohe, Hawaii and a Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes, "The publication of an article critical of the Philippine government's agreements with China in 2004 and with China and Vietnam in 2005 to undertake joint seismic surveys in the South China Sea has unleashed a fusillade of allegations that have rocked the government of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo... in approving this arrangement, the Philippine government undermined its political relations within ASEAN and its own legal claims to islands, waters and continental shelf in the South China Sea."

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PFO 08-021:
North Korea Now: Will the Clock Be Turned Back?

Georgy Toloraya, Visiting Fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute, writes, "If the hard-line approach persists on both sides, the future is predictable. It would likely be a repetition of the past: after a series of mutual steps increasing tensions and driving relations into yet another dead-end, the opponents (probably with a changed administration on the U.S. side) will get back to discussing the same issues from square one, again discovering there is no alternative to engagement and small-step tactics leading to gradual solutions, one by one."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-020:
Inter-Korean Relations in the Absence of a U.S.-ROK Alliance

David C. Kang, Professor in the Government department and Adjunct Professor at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, writes, "Evidence suggests that even without the U.S.-ROK military alliance instability and change on the Korean peninsula would be less dramatic than some observers have predicted. The absence of an alliance might under certain circumstances, such as continued progress in the six-party talks, have relatively little impact. Under other circumstances, such as increased tension between the United States and China over regional issues, the absence of the alliance might be more consequential."

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PFO 08-019:
The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program

Daniel A. Pinkston, Senior Analyst for the International Crisis Group, writes, "North Korea has a significant infrastructure and institutional arrangement to sustain its missile program. The country is nearly self-sufficient in ballistic missile production, but still relies upon some advanced foreign technologies and components, particularly for guidance systems. Pyongyang has established foreign entities and front companies to acquire inputs, but international export controls and denial strategies have made it increasingly difficult to procure dual-use items and technologies."

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PFO 08-018:
The Search for a Common Strategic Vision: Charting the Future of the US-ROK Security Partnership

This Report is the product of a multiyear, bipartisan, bi-national "strategic dialogue" to candidly discuss the strengths and address the weaknesses in the U.S.-ROK alliance, place them in a regional and global context and look ahead to identify ways to ensure its future success. It concludes, "The US-ROK partnership should be reaffirmed but it should also be modernized and redefined... In this Report, we chart a path of strategic cooperation between the United States and South Korea for this new era."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-017:
A Maritime Security Regime for Northeast Asia: Part II

Mark J. Valencia, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate and Visiting Senior Fellow at the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, writes, "there is a growing consensus that it is not too early to begin discussing a security architecture in Northeast Asia. That discussion should begin 'at sea'."

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PFO 08-016:
Presidential Elections and the Future of Russian-Korean Relations

Leonid Petrov, Research Associate in the Division of Pacific and Asian History at Australian National University, writes, "If Moscow, Pyongyang and Seoul reach a mutual understanding, coordinate their policies, and preclude their rivals from destroying this unity, many hopes of the Russian and Korean peoples have a good chance of materializing in the coming four to five years."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-015:
Hardliners Target Détente with North Korea

Suzy Kim, former international secretary of MINKAHYUP Human Rights Group in Seoul, Korea, and a visiting assistant professor of East Asian Studies at Oberlin College, and John Feffer, co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, write, "What's at stake is an end to more than half a century of hostilities in U.S.-North Korea relations, 20 million North Korean lives, and a peaceful and prosperous East Asia. The United States has to commit to the long haul. It's time to give engaged diplomacy a chance."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-014:
Seoul Needs Sound Policy, Not Soundbites

Aidan Foster-Carter, honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University, England, writes, "South Korea's real problems run deeper than soundbites. They include jobless graduates - too many study the wrong subjects - and, above all, how to create a growth model to meet China's challenge. That entails boosting services, which means more FDI. Mr Roh, to his credit, saw this. Does Mr Lee?"

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PFO 08-013:
U.S. Hypocrisy in the Strait of Hormuz?

Mark J. Valencia, a Maritime Policy Analyst and Nautilus Institute Associate, writes, "But if the mighty U.S. Navy vessels truly felt threatened by the lightly armed speedboats, then they should have argued they were engaging in self-defense or have even taken the issue to the UN Security Council. But to claim and pursue transit passage in a provocative manner while refusing to ratify the Convention-and then crying 'foul' --smacks of hypocrisy or worse."

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PFO 08-012:
East Timor: the Crisis Beyond the Coup Attempt

Richard Tanter, Director of the Australia office of the Nautilus Institute, writes, "While the violence of the attempted coup is shocking, it should not be a surprise. East Timor has been moving into multi-dimensional crisis for several years. For a variety of reasons, most foreign observers have been averting their eyes from this growing crisis, leaving their audience surprised when violence finally broke out again."

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PFO 08-010:
An 'Early Summer': Sino-Japanese Cooperation in the East China Sea

Sourabh Gupta, Senior Research Associate at Samuels International Associates, Inc., writes, "Nevertheless, with the number of Chinese visitors to Japan exceeding the number of Americans for the first time in 2007 and with China, excluding Hong Kong, ousting the United States as Japan's top trading partner for the first time in 2007, 2008 might yet play witness to a veritable "early summer" in Sino-Japanese bilateral relations."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-009:
Sino-Indian Relations: The Four Disconnects

Satu Limaye, Director of the East-West Center in Washington, writes, "Despite frozen relations from 1958 until 1988, the slow thaw in relations over the past two decades indicates that both India and China, increasingly preoccupied with economic and social development at home and much more pressing security challenges nearer to home, have decided to seek mutual gains, minimize differences and prepare for the future in a fluid Asia-Pacific."

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PFO 08-007:
A New Policy Toward N. Korea Can Serve Japan

Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Japanese Studies at Temple University Japan Campus in Tokyo, writes, "But at this point it is most unlikely that North Korea, which receives aid from China and South Korea and achieved a major breakthrough with America, will make concessions to Japan on the issue. Moreover, there is unfortunately little evidence that the unaccounted for abducted victims would be set free, assuming they are still alive. Consequently, Tokyo can use the U.S.-North Korea agreement as an opportunity to follow a more flexible strategy that will better serve its national interest."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-006:
The Next Nuclear Agreement with North Korea: Prospects and Pitfalls

David C. Kang, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, writes, Although the past year has seen substantial progress in capping and ultimately eliminating North Koreas nuclear weapons program, there remain many obstacles that could derail the progress made so far, and slow or even halt continued improvement in relations. The reciprocal actions laid out in the February 13, 2007 agreement are genuinely the first step in a long process for all countries involved in the negotiations, and sustained U.S. attention at the policymaking, executive, and legislative levels will be critical for the process to continue in a manner which enhances U.S. interests.

Go to the report.

PFO 08-005:
Japan as a Plutonium Superpower

Gavan McCormack, emeritus professor of Australian National University, a coordinator of Japan Focus, and author of the recently published Client State: Japan in the American Embrace, writes, "The final question is this: is Japan's drive to become a nuclear super-state compatible with its "Client State" role? The US has always insisted that Japan not be a nuclear weapons state, but, given a forthcoming privileged position within the GNEP, it stands to become a de facto nuclear superpower anyway. The Bush administration may be confident that it has locked Japan in to Client State subordination for the foreseeable future, but a considerable potential ambiguity opens up."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-004:
Looking Back and Looking Forward: North Korea, Northeast Asia and the ROK-U.S. Alliance

Hyeong Jung Park, CNAPS Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, writes, "Whether it is successful or not, the denuclearization process will give birth to a new reality both on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia, and the challenges for both countries will be how to maintain convergent understandings and cooperative relations along the road to the future."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-003:
The Hard Part Starts for Seoul's New Man

Donald Kirk, a Journalist who has been covering Korea - and the confrontation of forces in Northeast Asia - for more than 30 years, writes, "In the end, some analysts say, Lee's instincts for business, especially construction, may trump his notion of firmness toward North Korea. As a product of the Hyundai empire, he may well build on progress already achieved by the subsidiary Hyundai Asan in developing tourism to Mount Kumkang, above the eastern border with North Korea, and further investment in the Kaesong special economic zone, also above the line 64 kilometers north of Seoul."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-002:
Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea

Bonnie Glaser, senior associate at CSIS as well as with Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, Hawaii, Scott Snyder, senior associate of Washington programs in the International Relations program of The Asia Foundation, and John S. Park, expert on Northeast Asian security issues at the U.S. Institute of Peace, write, "In the event of instability in North Korea, China's priority will be to prevent refugees from flooding across the border. If deemed necessary, PLA troops would be dispatched into North Korea... Contingency plans are in place for the PLA to perform at least three possible missions in the DPRK: 1) humanitarian missions such as assisting refugees or providing help after a natural disaster; 2) peacekeeping or "order keeping" missions such as serving as civil police; and 3) "environmental control" missions to clean up nuclear contamination resulting from a strike on North Korean nuclear facilities near the Sino-DPRK border and secure "loose nukes" and fissile material."

Go to the report.

PFO 08-001:
Emerging Regional Security Architecture in Northeast Asia

James Goodby, former American Ambassador to Finland and currently is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and Markku Heiskanen, a non-resident Senior Fellow of the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies NIAS in Copenhagen, write, "the future security architecture of Northeast Asia will have at its core the Korean Peninsula, at peace internally and externally, embedded in a set of cooperative understandings comprising a peace regime, all supported by a regional multilateral mechanism for promoting security and cooperation in Northeast Asia."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-092:
Inspector O Faces the Music

James Church (a pseudonym) is the author of the detective novels, Hidden Moon and A Corpse in the Koryo. In this essay, Church meets Inspector O, the primary fictional character in his books, and discusses the anticipated New York Philharmonic concert in Pyongyang in February.

Go to the report.

PFO 07-091:
North Korea Meets Keynes: Demand and Supply in Our Style Socialism

Rudiger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, an Adjunct Professor at Korea University, and Director of the Vienna School of Governance, writes, "The current South Korean efforts at the rehabilitation of the North's economy and transportation networks, combined with a future relaxation of international trade and investment restrictions and a relaxed, open-minded government in Pyongyang might be just what the trading women at North Korea's markets need when they are praying for more customers."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-090:
The US-China Port Visit Spat: Opening a Pandora's Box?

Mark J. Valencia, a maritime security analyst in Kaneohe, Hawaii and Nautilus Institute Senior Associate, writes: "This spat may be the tip of an iceberg that expands into freedom of navigation issues and deepens the growing rift in already brittle relations. Both nations should tread lightly and sort out their differences through negotiations less they open a Pandora's Box of maritime controversies."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-089:
Japan Needs a New Approach to North Korean Abductions

Tessa Morris-Suzuki, Professor of Japanese History at the Australian National University and author of Exodus to North Korea: Shadows from Japan's Cold War, writes, "With the departure of the Abe administration and the creation of the Fukuda administration, the time is ripe for a new, more flexible and much more wide-reaching approach to break the deadlock in Japan-North Korea relations."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-088:
The 2007 Inter-Korean Summit and Its Implications for Northeast Asia

Su-hoon Lee, Chairman of the South Korean Presidential Committee on Northeast Asian Cooperation Initiative, and Professor at Kyungnam University, and Dean J. Ouellette, a researcher with the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, Korea and assistant editor of Asian Perspective, write, "Much is already being done on both sides to implement the comprehensive and concrete steps agreed to at the 2007 October summit... All this will help overcome the South-North division on the Korean peninsula and lay a foundation for a broader regional integration in Northeast Asia. Dismantlement of the cold-war structure in this part of the world is much over due. Building the bridges to overcome the past and help the region construct its future cooperatively must be supported with genuine and tangible efforts. With time, progress is made inevitably."

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PFO 07-087:
Why Ichiro Ozawa is America's True Hope and Why Shinzo Abe Never Was

Andrew Horvat, Pacific Council Adjunct Fellow on Japan, writes,"What Ozawa objects to is that the refueling operations support U.S. unilateralism in Iraq, whereas Japanese participation in Afghanistan would be within a UN-approved multilateral framework. While such an argument may not entirely please the Bush administration, it represents the only viable formula Japan has today to contribute to international peace because it allows for overseas military action to be interpreted as being in harmony with war-renouncing Article IX of the Japanese constitution."

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PFO 07-086:
Economic Consequences of ROK-U.S. Separation

Wonhyuk Lim, Fellow at the Korea Development Institute, writes, "although mutual deterrence between the ROK and DPRK on the Korean peninsula is likely to prevail even after the termination of the ROK-U.S. alliance, the end of the insurance provided by the alliance may weaken the ROKs position in Northeast Asia and present significant security and diplomatic challengesbut not necessarily economic difficulties per se."

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PFO 07-084:
Summit Success?

Aidan Foster-Carter, Professor at Leeds University in the United Kingdom, writes, "Given all this, it is surely possible to see the SPT and the summit as broadly parallel tracks in a single peace process, albeit by different routes. While fears that Seoul may prop up the Northern regime are understandable, so also is the ROK's goal of drawing the DPRK into a web of win-win business and economic dependency. The respective timings of these two tracks will be crucial, but it is not the end of the world if the Seoul train runs ahead a little."

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PFO 07-083:
Strengthening Security Cooperation with Australia: A New Security Means for Japan

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Professor of international politics at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, writes, "Political enthusiasm and drive for enhancing security cooperation on the basis of democratic values may have dissipated for the moment, but Japan and Australia should continue to enhance their security cooperation in a way that serves the good of the region and the world."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-082:
Economic Implications of Summit Agreement

Stephan Haggard, Director of the Korea-Pacific Program (KPP) at the University of California at San Diego, and Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, write, "Ultimately the success of the program sketched out in the summit announcement will depend on the intentions of the North Koreans. Pyongyang could use the assistance offered by the Seoul to leverage its own reform program. However, it could take the aid and simply retreat into its shell, avoiding real reform and a verifiable resolution to the nuclear issue. Only time will tell."

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PFO 07-081:
Mongolia Matters

Steve Noerper, Senior Associate at the Nautilus Institute, writes, "Welcoming Mongolia's President to Washington this month with a frank but positive assessment of common needs and an enhanced understanding of developments in Mongolia is critical. We need to better recognize this horseman of the north which has listened to international requests, abided with its responsibilities, supported U.S. and international efforts, and grown itself as one of the regions most vibrant locales as a fitting response to forces of despotism, nuclear proliferation, and hostility that have challenged the international arena of late."

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PFO 07-080:
North Korean Refugees in China and Human Rights Issues: International Response and U.S. Policy Options

Rhoda Margesson, Specialist in International Humanitarian Assistance in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, Emma Chanlett-Avery, Analyst in Asian Affairs in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service, and Andorra Bruno, Specialist in Immigration Policy in the Domestic Social Policy Division of the Congressional Research Service, write, "Formulating policy toward North Korea has been characterized as deciding among a range of bad options. The following outlines some basic approaches to dealing with North Korea's human rights and refugee issues advocated by various constituencies, with an analysis of some of the possible diplomatic and security related ramifications. United States policy has adopted elements of several of these strategies in the past and future policies will likely be a combination of approaches."

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PFO 07-079:
Kim Jong Il confronts Bush - and wins. A New Page in North-South Korean Relations

Bruce Cumings, Professor in the History Department and Member of the Committee on International Relations at the University of Chicago and author of the two volume work The Origins of the Korean War and North Korea: Another Country, writes, "North Korea has won and got what it wanted, and what it had suggested in the 1990s: to trade its nuclear programme for aid and normalised ties with the US, a proposition denied and derided in official Washington."

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PFO 07-078:
A Framework for Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia

The Atlantic Council Working Group on North Korea, chaired by Ambassador James Goodby and General Jack N. Merritt released this report which notes, "Enlarging the diplomatic agenda through parallel negotiations, alongside the nuclear talks, will strengthen the U.S. hand by enabling diplomats to assert additional pressures on North Korea as well as provide Pyongyang, and other negotiating partners, new incentives The history of negotiating with North Korea demonstrates that improvements in political conditions almost always precede and foster agreements on security-related issues."

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PFO 07-077:
What Korean Unification Means to China

Zhang Quanyi, an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a research fellow at the School of International Studies at Yonsei University, writes, "Both China and Korea have been greatly influenced by Confucianism. What's more, they share an unhappy history with Japan. In the face of recent moves toward a possible military alliance between the United States, Japan, Australia, India and other countries, China may seek to strengthen its cultural and historical ties with Korea to boost its position in Asia."

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PFO 07-076:
Targeting Chongryun?

Anthony DiFilippo, Professor of Sociology at Lincoln University in Pennsylvania, writes, "Whether or not Ogata and his associates intended to cheat Chongryun is actually quite separate from the question of whether Chongryun and Chongryun Koreans, a minority in Japan that has long been subjected to oppressive and discriminatory treatment, have bore the political brunt of Tokyo's recent disagreements with Pyongyang on the nuclear, missile and especially the abduction issues."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-074:
Environmental Security: Agenda Item for the Inter-Korean Summit

Ke Chung Kim, Chair of the DMZ Forum (http://www.dmzforum.org/) and Director of the Center for BioDiversity Research at Pennsylvania State University, writes, "The 2nd Inter-Korean Summit in Pyongyang offers an timely opportunity for the leaders of two Koreas, Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il of the DPRK and President Roh Moo-Hyun of the ROK to forge an ultimate agenda, building environmental security on the Korean peninsula for which the formation of an inter-Korean commission for environmental security should be considered a positive contribution towards peace, prosperity and healthy environment for the Korean people."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-073:
North Korea's External Economic Relations

Stephan Haggard, Director of the Korea-Pacific Program (KPP) at the University of California at San Diego, and Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, write, "the transformative effects of engagement on the North Korean economy are more likely to hold with respect to Chinese trade and investment with North Korea, which appears to occur on largely market-conforming terms, than they are with South Korea's, which contains a very substantial noncommercial component."

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PFO 07-072:
Kim Jong-il's Calculation

Scott Snyder, senior associate with the Asia Foundation and Pacific Forum CSIS, writes, "Despite Kim's strategic calculus, a second inter-Korean summit draws him further into the public light and diminishes the opacity surrounding the North Korean regime. Kim's economic needs reveal his dependency on external aid, which should only be given transparently with the full approval of the Korean taxpayer."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-071:
Summit Spirit on the Korean Peninsula

Eric J. Ballbach, research associate of the Korea Communication and Research Center in Berlin, writes, "If we now compare the circumstances and political conditions of the first and the second summit, there appears to be a major similarity, namely the basic fact that both summits occur in a time when North Korea began to emerge from a phase of diplomatic isolation. Differently put: North Korea's 'Yes' to the summit is inseparable connected with external developments in the Northeast Asian region - despite the internal dynamic of inter-Korean relations."

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PFO 07-070:
Disaster Management and Institutional Change in the DPRK: Trends in the Songun Era

Alexandre Y. Mansourov, Professor of Security Studies at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies and a specialist in Northeast Asian security, politics, and economics, focusing primarily on the Korean Peninsula, writes, "North Korea is an evolved system (not a designed system). Its disaster management mechanisms are a good example of a typical crisis-driven institutional evolution. As such, this system is dynamically stable... It can undergo sudden state changes but then display robust recovery from catastrophic events, as one has been able to witness during the past two decades. The question remains open: Is there a tipping point for such a complex, dynamically stable system like North Korea's?"

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PFO 07-069:
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Dismantlement or Disarmament

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society at the University of Vienna, Executive Vice Speaker of the Vienna School of Governance and an Adjunct Professor at Korea University in Seoul, writes, "it is unlikely that the weapons themselves will be scrapped. Nevertheless, stopping their production is a valuable thing and within reach. The reasons behind are, as usual, subject to speculation, and might include a fear of China, a concern over South Korean domestic developments, hunger for economic support and tactical gameplay."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-068:
A Russian View on Inter Korean Summit

Georgy Bulychev, Director for Korean Research Programs, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Moscow, writes, "if the DPRK gains short-term profits (like fostering her stance vis-à-vis the U.S. and receiving economic aid), the South and other interested countries will gain over the long-term. For the South, it is an important step forward on the way towards normalizing relations with the North and strengthening the common potential of the Korean states. Looking from the angle of regional geopolitics, it would provide for stronger stability and growing interaction and coincide with Russia's priorities."

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PFO 07-066:
The Second South-North Summit: Prospects for Intensifying Inter-Korean Cooperation

Lim Eul-chul, Research Professor at Kyungnam University, writes "no one should be blindly optimistic about the upcoming summit, but if any agreements develop as a result of the meeting, it would mean qualitative development of inter-Korean relations. It would also mean the prospect of huge opportunities in the future for entrepreneurs trying to find a way into North Korean markets, as business with North Korea is already progressing by leaps and bounds."

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PFO 07-065:
A Maritime Security Regime for Northeast Asia?

Mark J. Valencia, a maritime security analyst in Kaneohe, Hawaii, writes "emerging from one of the most conflict prone regions of the world is a conflict avoidance regime - in short, an expectation of self-restraint and sharing in such situations. But these regimes are not multilateral nor have they evolved in that direction despite the hopes and recommendations of policy analysts and practitioners. Nevertheless, they can be expanded and have a spillover effect on relations in general and maritime regime creation in particular."

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PFO 07-064:
The Inter-Korean Summit: One Good Turn Deserves Another

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project in New York and author of /Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea/, writes that "for South Koreans to make the most of this second summit meeting, they must begin by appreciating its real significance as an opportunity to advance reconciliation with North Korea, which is the only way to end its nuclear ambitions and bring about much-needed change in the North."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-063:
How Realistic Is a Nuclear-Armed Japan?

Tetsuya Endo, former vice chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan, writes, "Japan has the technology to develop nuclear weapons and, with the relevant legal revisions, Japan could actually embark on a nuclear weapons development program... However, it would require huge commitments of manpower, material and money, and it would not be so easy to change the persisting popular anti-nuclear sentiment. More importantly, a nuclear-armed Japan would face severe isolation from the international community. Given all these grave risks, it is clear that the nuclear option is surely not in the national interest of Japan and far from a realistic policy choice."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-062:
Seoul's Impetuous Summit Initiative

Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation, writes, "If Roh presses for a North Korean commitment to tangible progress toward denuclearization by the year's end, then a North-South summit will be a useful adjunct to the Six-Party Talks. It is more likely, however, that the meeting will provide only a patina of progress, and it could actually endanger multilateral efforts to pressure Pyongyang to divest itself of its nuclear weapons."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-060:
The Second Inter-Korean Summit: Four Arguments Against and Why They Could Be Wrong

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes, "The sunshine policy, or how ever one prefers to call it, is a long-term strategy. It needs time and continuous support to bear fruits. Nuclear North Korea is a product of failed confrontation, not of naive engagement. Rather than being disappointed by the lack of spectacular solutions, we should take the time to think about what has already been achieved during a historically brief period of time, show some patience, and give the sun a chance."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-059:
A Unified Approach: Articulating a Coordinated U.S.-ROK Strategy in 2008

A. Greer Pritchett, Assistant Project Director of Northeast Asia Projects for the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, writes, "if a smart policy is crafted now within the current administration, there appears to be little reason for a significant shift in 2009... Further, since the next administration will undoubtedly still be preoccupied and stymied in other parts of the world, a bolstered U.S.-ROK alliance would be a much appreciated housewarming gift."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-058:
No Justice, No Peace

Mindy L. Kotler, Director of Asia Policy Point, a nonprofit membership research center that studies the U.S. policy relationship with Japan and Northeast Asia, writes, "Reconciliation and regional peace in Asia are at the heart of the Congressional Comfort Woman resolution. Long overdue apologies and respect for these victims of wartime violence are among the elements needed to achieve this peace. After 60 years of constructive, responsible, and resolutely peaceful membership in the world community, it is unfortunate that Japan must be reminded of the power of justice as a tool for peace."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-057:
Turnabout is Fair Play

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council and author of Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, writes, "The irreconcilables insist Pyongyang will never live up to its pledge... How can they be so sure? The fact is, with the possible exception of Kim Jong-il, nobody knows. And the only way for Washington to find out is to proceed, reciprocal step by reciprocal step, in sustained negotiations to reconcile with Pyongyang in return for its disarming."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-056:
US Missile Defense In Northeast Asia and the Rule of Law in Japan: Evidence from the July 5, 2006 North Korean Missile Test

Umebayashi Hiromichi, Founder and President of Peace Depot, a non-profit organization for peace research and education in Japan, writes, "The use of US bases in Japan directly for the defense of the United States proper is something quite new. Strict rule of law must be followed in relation to the military, and particularly in case of a foreign military using the territory of an independent state it is more necessary than ever in this circumstance to reaffirm the importance of keeping the military strictly within the rule of law."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-055:
Ain't No Sunshine When He's Gone? The Future of Engagement after the ROK Presidential Election

Scott Bruce, Program Officer at the San Francisco Office of the Nautilus Institute, and Timothy Savage, Deputy Director of the Seoul Office of the Nautilus Institute, write, "If the experience of the last six years teaches anything, it is that the United States cannot carry out an effective policy toward the DPRK without the active participation of the ROK. Future American policymakers thus would be well advised to take note; the ship of engagement has already set sail, and it would be best to ride alongside, rather than be caught in the wake."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-053:
Not Going Nuclear: Japan's Response to North Korea's Nuclear Test

Hajime Izumi, Professor at the University of Shizuoka in Japan and Katsuhisa Furukawa, a research fellow at the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society at the Japan Science and Technology Agency, write, "Thus, the consensus in Japan today favors continued reliance on the Japanese-U.S. alliance, the U.S. nuclear umbrella, and missile defense to negate North Korea's nuclear capability...The focus is to examine what type of bilateral mechanism may be appropriate to conduct regularized dialogue with the United States on nuclear strategy issues, whether in official or unofficial channels, and what agenda Japan may want to discuss as well as what type of information the United States may want to share with Japan under what conditions."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-052:
On North Korea, Hippocrates Not Hypocrisy

Katharine H.S. Moon, Associate Fellow at the Asia Society and professor in political science at Wellesley College, writes, "The central principle in any policy should be 'do no harm' to those who are already abused. Regime change could worsen human rights conditions... By working with institutions that specialize in various aspects of human rights and welfare, we broaden the international constituency around North Korean human rights. We convey to the North Korean regime that it is not being singled out for demonization, and we show the North Korean people that human rights, theirs included, are of universal concern."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-051:
The Prospects for Institutionalizing the Six-Party Talks

Keun-sik Kim, Professor in the Department of Political Diplomacy at Kyungnam University, writes, "It is hoped that the success of the Six-Party Talks and their development into an institution for multilateral security cooperation will serve to promote peace, security, and unity in Northeast Asia."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-050:
Japan and India as Partners for the Peace and Stability of Asia

Hiroshi Hirabayashi, a councilor of the Japan Forum on International Relations who is expected to become the president of the Japan-India Association soon and served as Ambassador of Japan to India between 1998 and 2002, writes, "In the Asian theater in particular, where numerous elements of insecurity persist, it [India] is expected to become a guarantor of peace and stability. This will be more effective if India strengthens its partnership with Japan, an increasingly proactive contributor to this end."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-049:
Process of Denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and the Challenges

An Song Nam, the Executive Director at the DPRK's Institute of Disarmament and Peace in Pyongyang, delivered this presentation at the annual Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur in early June, with only minor edits. While presented prior to the recent "breakthrough," it still provides a useful North Korean perspective on the broader Korean Peninsula denuclearization issue and some of the challenges that may lie ahead.

Go to the report.

PFO 07-048:
Resolving the North Korean Nuclear Problem: Status Quo vs. Transformative Approach

Steven C. Kim, Assistant Professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, writes, "given the fact that the conflicting approaches of China-Russia-ROK and US-Japan are rooted in their differing policy goals toward North Korea which, in turn, reflect their sharply divergent domestic and foreign policy interests, it will not be easy for them to reconcile their conflicting approaches until the five countries can agree on a common approach, one cannot expect that there will be substantive progress toward resolving the North Korean nuclear problem."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-047:
Democracy and Peace in Korea Twenty Years After June 1987: Where Are We Now, and Where Do We Go from Here?

Paik Nak-chung, editor of the South Korean literary-intellectual journal, The Quarterly Changbi, and Professor Emeritus of English Literature, Seoul National University, writes, "In contrast, a gradual, step-by-step process opens up space for civic participation. And where, as in South Korea, civil society possesses both the will and the ability to utilize this space, citizens' say in determining the timing and the specific contents of a given intermediate stage must continue to increase, and eventually it will not be possible to prevent the sphere of civic participation extending to the entire peninsula."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-046:
What Next After Kim Jong-il?

Lee Byong-Chul, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation(IPC), a non-partisan policy advisory body based in Seoul, South Korea, writes, "Whatever the scenario might be, it is clear in the minds of many that the stability of the communist regime is more important than anything else; in particular, China and the U.S. could not invoke a regime change in North Korea at their own disposal but certainly want to lead the North in the respective directions that they think it needs to go. At present, the only hope they have is North Korea's complete, verifiable and irrevocable dismantlement of all the nuclear facilities. In other words, Kim Jong-il as a negotiable partner still seems to be on their mind."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-044:
Behind the Blacklisting of Banco Delta Asia

Ronda Hauben, researcher, writer and freelance journalist, who has spent the past 14 years studying, writing and participating in online media, writes, "The purpose of the action against the BDA appears not only to have been to target North Korea and its access to the international banking system, but also to send a message to China."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-041:
Lessons from the BDA Issue

Keun-sik Kim, Professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, writes, "Considering that the role of third parties has been severely limited in breaking the stalemate, one lesson to be learned from the BDA issue is that bilateral frameworks must be in sync with the multilateral framework. Not only DPRK-U.S. negotiations but also simultaneous, active discussion between the U.S. and China, North Korea and China, and the two Koreas can serve as a buffer to help resolve issues."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-040:
The New Nuclear Arms Race

Hugh White, Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute and Professor of Strategic Studies at ANU, writes, "Short of the elimination of nuclear weapons, the US and China can moderate their nuclear competition and reduce the risk of nuclear war by reaching an agreement about the size and nature of each other's nuclear forces, offensive and defensive."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-039:
Prime Minister Abe's Visit to the United States

Yukio Okamoto, president of Okamoto Associates, Inc., and former chairman of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizmi's Task Force on Foreign Relations, writes, "The summit should be seen as a solid first step. In the coming year, Prime Minister Abe will be probably be asking the Bush Administration to join his government in the crafting of a detailed and inspiring vision of America's and Japan's common future."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-038:
Yokohama and Seoul: Dealing With Crimes of State in Japan and South Korea

Gavan McCormack, a coordinator at Japan Focus and author of the book Client State: Japan in the American Embrace, writes, "The maturity and the humanity of states and societies, as in the case of individuals, may be measured by the way they face the darkest moments of their own history. The contrast between recent judgments in courts in South Korea and Japan points to a gulf in terms of civic maturity, with South Korea apparently showing the way to Japan."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-036:
The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea: Conventional or Hybrid Military Threat?

Brian P. Duplessis, a Major in the United States Marine Corps with 17 years service, writes, "For too long, military thought has almost exclusively focused on the DPRKs sizeable conventional forces and WMD capabilities while giving short shrift to irregular warfare capabilities and disruptive activities. In order to successfully blunt a future DPRK military attack, this trend must be reversed."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-035:
Transforming the U.S. Relationship with China

Donald G. Gross, Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council of the United States, Asia Programs, in Washington, DC, writes, "As the dominant country in the Asia-Pacific, the U.S. faces a crucial strategic choice: it can use its superior diplomatic, political, military and economic power to negotiate a historic Framework Agreement with China that achieves a fundamental shift in the paradigm of U.S.-China relations. Or, to the contrary, the U.S. can narrowly focus on protecting its domestic market and bolstering its military presence in East Asia in expectation of an inevitable conflict with China."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-034:
Gold Digging: Getting to the Bottom of the Treasury Department's Economic Campaign Against North Korea

China Matters, a blog online at: http://chinamatters.blogspot.com/, writes, "Every time the North Korean dog sticks its head out of its Chinese kennel, we beat it on the snout with a stick and force it back to the heel of its Chinese master. And we persist with the policy even when it runs counter to our current diplomatic efforts and security strategy for the region. It's a policy that's blind, self-defeating, and futile. And now that the U.S. has abandoned a policy of confrontation with North Korea, it's also become ridiculous."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-033:
Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid and Reform

Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, authors of Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform, write, "While we welcome the February 13 agreement, ongoing conflicts over implementation underline that it was a first step only. We are still far from either resolving the North Korea's chronic food emergency or successfully denuclearizing of the Korean peninsula."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-032:
A Framework for Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia

The Atlantic Council Working Group on North Korea, a NGO that promotes constructive U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs, wrote, "In the working group's view, parallel negotiations to achieve a series of agreements on political, security and economic issues related to the nuclear deal will provide the U.S. with significantly greater diplomatic leverage for achieving its strategic policy goals of denuclearizing North Korea and establishing long-term peace and stability in Northeast Asia. Realizing a comprehensive settlement would also demonstrate the strategic value of making diplomatic common cause with an emerging China."

Go to the >report.

PFO 07-031:
Economic Perspectives on Future Directions for Engagement With the DPRK in a Post-Test World

Bradley O. Babson, a former World Bank official and expert on Asian affairs with a concentration on the North Korean economy and Northeast Asia economic cooperation, writes, "Depending on the choices made by stakeholders both inside and outside the DPRK, the future path could be highly destabilizing or highly transformational with positive outcomes for regional security and economic prosperity for the North Korean people."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-030:
North Korea's Strategic Decisions After the February 13 Agreement

Jae-Jean Suh, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, writes, "it is highly unlikely that North Korea will refuse to integrate into the capitalist world system that other socialist nations had selected and continue to persist with its acquisition of nuclear weapons, thereby further sustaining its Cold War isolation, but would rather make a strategic choice of abolishing its nuclear weapons."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-029:
'Holier Than Thou Politics of Comfort Women Apology': This Should Be Primarily About the Treatment of Women

Katharine H.S. Moon, Associate Professor of political science at Wellesley College and Associate Fellow at the Asia Society in New York City, writes that "The Japanese system of sexual slavery was first and foremost an atrocity perpetrated on women, not nations. Often, these were women of lower classes or women underprotected in some way by their own people. And whether they were Korean or Dutch or South Pacific Islander, their bodies, minds and souls hurt equally."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-028:
BDA: Hill's Tactical Miscalculation

Tong Kim, Visiting Scholar at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, writes that "The North Koreans should heed the rekindled criticisms among the opponents of the Bush administrations new approach to the DPRK since their refusal to participate in the talks last week. They should remind themselves that they won a rare opportunity to engage the United States after waiting 6 long years. They should also remember that the United States still has other options to resort to, if it is convinced, as events may prove right or wrong, that there is no way to reach a fair negotiated settlement."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-027:
Protecting the Human Rights of Comfort Women

Mindy L. Kotler, Director of Asia Policy Point, a Washington, DC nonprofit research center that studies the U.S. policy relationships with Japan and Northeast Asia, writes that "The Comfort Women issue is not yesterday's problem. It is today's and, if it is not dealt with now, it will be tomorrow's problem as well. A multitude of vital U.S. interests are served by a definitive resolution of this moral issue still troubling the governments and peoples of Asia. It is also good for our very close ally Japan, as its government seeks long-overdue recognition of Japan's 60-year history of constructive, responsible and resolutely peaceful membership in the modern world community."

Go to the report.

Read a discussion of the report here.

PFO 07-026:
What Price Denuclearization?

Bruce Klingner, Senior Research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, writes, "The Bush administration's action will have far-reaching ramifications. Since it so closely followed North Korea's threats, Pyongyang will interpret it as a U.S. capitulation. In conjunction with earlier wavering by Washington over Pyongyang's covert uranium-based nuclear weapons program, North Korean negotiators will be emboldened to push back against U.S. demands."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-025:
Comfort women: It's time for the truth (in the ordinary, everyday sense of the word)

Tessa Morris-Suzuki from the ANU writes that "the denial of responsibility for the fate of the 'comfort women' is, of course, an extremely important issue for Japan's relations with its Asian neighbors and regional partners, including Australia." The Japanese government notes Morris-Suzuki, "seems unable to grasp the extent of the damage which comments such as Abe's cause to Japan's international image in many other countries, particularly those (like Australia) where memories of the war remain an emotive issue." The story concludes Morris-Suzuki, "is depressingly familiar. The victims this time are first and foremost the surviving 'comfort women' themselves, who are once again being insulted and denied justice by the morally bankrupt hair-splitting rhetoric of politicians. But the other group of victims is the Japanese people themselves, whose relationship with neighboring countries is being damaged by the short-sighted and inept behavior of their political leaders."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-024:
So Far, So Fast: What's Really Behind The Bush Administration's Course Reversal On North Korea - And Can The Negotiations Succeed?

Don Oberdorfer, a former Washington Post diplomatic correspondent, author of "The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History", and chairman of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University's Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, writes, "Four months after North Korea's underground blast, it's astonishing how far the negotiations aimed at reversing North Korea's nuclear success have progressed-and how much the Bush administration has changed course But the fact that success is also a possibility is a direct result of the impressive efforts of the diplomats who are seeking denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-023:
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program to 2015: Three Scenarios

Jonathan D. Pollack, Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and a former chairman of the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College, where he also directs the college's Asia-Pacific Studies Group, outlines three "three alternative scenarios for North Korea's nuclear weapons development over the coming decade: (1) pursuit of a symbolic nuclear capability, (2) pursuit of an operational nuclear deterrent, and (3) a deficient or failed effort to achieve an operational capability."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-021:
North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Implications for the Nuclear Ambitions of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan

Christopher W. Hughes, Associate Professor at the University of Warwick and author of Japan's Reemergence as a "Normal" Military Power and Japan's Security Agenda: Military, Economic and Environmental Dimensions, writes, "Hence, the United States faces a major challenge in attempting to roll back the North Korean nuclear program and may already have failed in this endeavour. Failure of the United States and the region to halt North Korea's nuclear program need not yet dissolve, however, into a process of wider nuclear proliferation in the region. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan look set to continue to hedge their nuclear bets as long as the United States remains implacable and engaged in its security commitments."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-020:
Enhancing U.S. Engagement with North Korea

Joel S. Wit, a former U.S. Department of State official and coauthor of Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis, writes, "A policy of enhanced engagement that articulates a positive vision for the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia; seeks to rapidly identify common ground with Pyongyang; builds productive communication; sets negotiating priorities; establishes realistic nuclear objectives; and creates a successful, sustained process of implementation holds the best chance for resolving the crisis and securing U.S. interests."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-019:
Tug Of War With Shorter Rope: Hard-Liners Working To Trip Up Nuclear Talks

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York and author of Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, writes, "It will be much harder now to convince North Korea that the U.S. is ready to end enmity. They will not settle for words; they will insist on concrete actions. They are prepared to reciprocate if and when Washington cooperates. Only time and perseverance will tell if they are willing to give up their nuclear weapons."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-016:
It's About Time!

James Goodby, former U.S. ambassador to Finland and current Senior Fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at The Brookings Institution, and Markku Heiskanen, a senior Finnish diplomat, who is currently Associate Senior Fellow of the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, Copenhagen write, "Will this new approach succeed? Critics are already sniping at it, North Korea can be counted on to be difficult, Japan is not happy that the abductee issue has not been resolved, and the issues themselves are daunting. So no one should expect miracles. But this approach deserves support. It is perhaps the last best hope for averting catastrophe..."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-015:
Can the New Nuclear Deal with North Korea Succeed?

C. Kenneth Quinones, former State Department North Korea Director, writes, "Reaction understandably has been mixed. Paradoxically the strongest advocate appears to be President Bush, along with China and South Korea. Prime Minister Abe promptly voiced his displeasure. In Washington, both opponents and advocates of negotiations with North Korea have expressed substantial reservations. Even Pyongyang has emphasized publicly the agreement's tentative nature. Ultimately, the lack of political support in many capitals and the new accords complexity and numerous areas of ambiguity will make successful implementation extremely difficult."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-014:
The Beijing Deal is not the Agreed Framework

Peter Hayes, Director of the Nautilus Institute and Professor of International Relations at RMIT University, writes, In short, whatever its shortcomings, the critics of the Beijing Deal who denounce it as simply the revival of the logic and scope of the old Agreed Framework have got it completely wrong. We are nowhere near a comprehensive agreement that captures the DPRK nuclear weapons program. Nor did the DPRK achieve a victory over the United States in Beijing. Rather, both sides wrestled the other ...to the end.

Go to the report.

PFO 07-012:
U.N. Sanctions on North Korea and U.S. Korea Relations

Young Whan Kihl, Professor of Political Science Emeritus at Iowa State University, Ames, writes, "The Roh Moo-hyun government 'Peace and Prosperity Policy' was aimed at the Northeast Asian region as a whole, but it rested on the premise that the North Korean nuclear issue will be resolved peacefully. Roh's vision of making his country an economic hub, together with playing a 'balancer role' in regional dynamics, will go nowhere if North Korea continues to refuse to abandon its nuclear program."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-011:
First Technical Steps for North Korean Denuclearization

Jungmin Kang, Nautilus Institute Senior Associate and Science Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, describes the first steps that can be taken by the DPRK to "irreversibly dismantle its plutonium production programs and move the Six Party Talks forward." In response, he argues, the other five nations should take corresponding actions that might include, "a significant albeit partial lifting of economic sanctions imposed to North Korea by the US, energy and food assistance to North Korea by the other five countries, and legally binding security assurances to North Korea."

Go to the report.

Read a response to this article.

PFO 07-010:
Kim Jong Il's Nuclear Ambitions

Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), writes, "The Dear Leader and his team understand very well that the Six-Party 'denuclearization' farce now provides perfect international diplomatic cover for an unobstructed North Korean nuclear arms buildup. What the other parties in the talk do not seem to understand--or in the case of an increasingly weakened Bush Presidency, perhaps fear to face--is that the only "solutions" to the North Korean nuclear crisis worthy of the name require a better class of dictator in Pyongyang."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-009:
What North Korea Really Wants

Robert Carlin, a former State Department analyst who participated in most of the U.S.-North Korea negotiations between 1993 and 2000, and John Lewis, professor emeritus at Stanford University who directs projects on Asia at the university's Center for International Security and Cooperation, write, "Denuclearization, if still achievable, can come only when North Korea sees its strategic problem solved, and that, in its view, can happen only when relations with the United States improve."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-008:
Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation at a Crossroads

Wonhyuk Lim, Fellow at the Korea Development Institute (www.kdi.re.kr) and Korea National Strategy Institute (www.knsi.org), writes, "Just as it is not appeasement to talk to North Korea or any other potential adversary, it is not appeasement to hire North Korean workers and pay their wages. Instead of blaming economic engagement that promotes internal changes in North Korea, it would be far better to contain and reduce potential military threats through arms control negotiations and re-establish the policy synergy the United States and South Korea enjoyed in dealing with North Korea."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-007:
A Proposed Korea - U.S. Free Trade Agreement and Kaesong Industrial Complex

Suh Kim, a professor of international finance and the coordinator of finance and international business at the University of Detroit Mercy, writes, "From a U.S. perspective, it is difficult to see how the FTA could grant advantages to North Korean production while North Korea continues to engage in developing weapons of mass destruction However, it also makes sense to support the South Korean vision for Korean reunification by setting out procedures in the FTA itself for updating the pact if and when that process moves forward."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-006:
Classical Socialism in North Korea and its Transformation: The Role and the Future of Agriculture

Ruediger Frank, Professor of East Asian Political Economy at the University of Vienna, writes, "the neglected agricultural sector experienced serious difficulties that led to a severe famine in the mid 1990s. These events were so threatening that they convinced the leadership to embark on perfection measures that go well beyond earlier attempts without, so far, violating Kornai's combined principles of Communist party power monopoly and state ownership of means of production. However, the development of North Korea is an ongoing process. Turning back a decade from now, we might find that agriculture provided the momentum to lead North Korea into a post-socialist future."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-005:
Succession - A Dictator's Dilemma

Bryan Port, an staff officer at the Pentagon for the Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence (G2) holds Masters Degree in Security Studies from Georgetown University and has spent six years in Korea working in various capacities for the US Government, writes, "The recent nuclear tests serve to highlight the importance of the succession issue to the US and the DPRK's neighbors. While external reasoning may have lead Kim Chong-il to test a nuclear device, it is more likely that internal considerations are driving decisions not only on WMD development, but also on the issue of leadership succession in the DPRK."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-004:
Paek the Opaque: Another Old North Korean Bites the Dust

Aidan Foster-Carter, is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University in the UK, writes, "A nuclear North Korea is indeed a worry, but it is not the only one. The world, and even Pyongyang, will take the death of Paek Nam Sun (who?) in its stride. But Kim Jong Il could go just as suddenly. In that case all bets for North Korea would be off."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-003:
DPRK Pursuing Factory Modernization Through Foreign Joint Ventures, Cooperatives

This report, published by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, notes, "North Korean authorities are emphasizing the modernization of factories and enterprises throughout the country since 2000. They are faced, however, with shortages of the necessary capital, materials, and equipment, not one of which is easily resolved. Because of this, North Korea has pulled out all the stops with a policy of pursuing the formation of foreign joint-ventures and cooperatives."

Go to the report.

PFO 07-002:
The Korea-U.S. FTA: Prospects And Implications For The Bilateral Strategic Relationship

Joseph A.B. Winder, President of Winder International, writes, "A failure of the KORUS FTA negotiations would represent a serious setback to the overall U.S. relationship. If agreement cannot be reached in an area, which is so clearly win-win for both sides, then how are the two countries to deal with the difficult political/security issues where a mutually satisfactory resolution of many issues is less clearcut?"

Go to the report.

PFO 07-001:
Hopes of Economic Build-Up Spread Following DPRK Nuclear Test

This report, published by the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, notes, "It is being stressed that the amount of effort concentrated on making North Korea a nuclear power will now be focused on improving the lives of its citizens, and efforts previously reserved for strengthening military might will now be used not only to improve the military but also to prepare the framework for an economically powerful country."

Go to the report.


The Nautilus Policy Forum Online is intended to provide expert analysis of contemporary issues in Northeast Asia, and an opportunity to participate in discussion of the analysis. As always, Nautilus invites your responses to this report.

Copyright (c) 2001 Nautilus of America/The Nautilus Institute